Rumor: Trade Rumors/Proposals 2018-2019 (Part 19)

[danielpalfredsson]

Boedker is a consistent 30 point-scorer. As long as he keeps up that pace this year we'll be able to get a late round pick (or similar valued prospect) for him from a lower-ranked playoff team at the deadline.

Hainsey and Boedker are going to be the two most likely to be moved at the deadline.

Pageau and DeMelo would return far greater value, but I'd much rather we re-sign them, if possible. Probably at least one of them will go.

Can't imagine we'll get anything for Ennis or Borowiecki.

Points aren't everything.

Boedker isn't good enough away from the puck, and with this being a "copycat league" playoff teams might be looking to spend on players who play a heavier game.

Like you said, I could see us getting a C prospect/tweener or maybe a late pick, but I don't think there will be a big enough market to get us anything good. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't come to that, and we move Boedker in a change of scenery deal for another NHLer before then. I wonder if Frolik would be a fit since he apparently wants out of Calgary. With how difficult it is for teams to move cap, if there aren't any takers for Frolik, maybe Calgary would be up for the swap just for the sake of ending what I assume is a negative situation.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Boedker is a consistent 30 point-scorer. As long as he keeps up that pace this year we'll be able to get a late round pick (or similar valued prospect) for him from a lower-ranked playoff team at the deadline.

Hainsey and Boedker are going to be the two most likely to be moved at the deadline.

Pageau and DeMelo would return far greater value, but I'd much rather we re-sign them, if possible. Probably at least one of them will go.

Can't imagine we'll get anything for Ennis or Borowiecki.

Smith was a consistent 30 point guy as well and no one would take him off our hands for free. Now maybe the expiring contract for Boedker will help his trade value but I don't think teams really value this kind of player. He's not a guy you can really put into any meaningful role on special teams or put on a shutdown line since he's atrocious in his own end. Just about every team probably has a few guys in the AHL who can give you what Boedker will, which is very little.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

At 29 years old and coming off a 35 pt season, what do you think we can get for UFA Boedker?

I don't think we could move him unless we sweetened the pot. People looking to add to their roster are not likely going to have much interest in Boedker. Would he clear waivers? Good chance he would.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

At 29 years old and coming off a 35 pt season, what do you think we can get for UFA Boedker?

If he has a good season then maybe a 3rd round pick. I dont think he's worth anything right now.

 

[Micklebot]

Smith was a consistent 30 point guy as well and no one would take him off our hands for free. Now maybe the expiring contract for Boedker will help his trade value but I don't think teams really value this kind of player. He's not a guy you can really put into any meaningful role on special teams or put on a shutdown line since he's atrocious in his own end. Just about every team probably has a few guys in the AHL who can give you what Boedker will, which is very little.

Smith was coming off a 5 goal 19 pts season and had 3 years left on his deal that paid him 3.25 per. Teams were scared off because they doubted he'd post 30 ever again. I think had we waived him this year instead of last, we probably would have gotten a taker.

 

[Sens Vader]

I think were gonna see some sort of Ryan for Lucic/Neal/Eriksson swap

 

[harrisb]

I think were gonna see some sort of Ryan for Lucic/Neal/Eriksson swap

Neal maybe, either of the other two would need to come with a big sweetener for me

 

[JungleBeat]

Smith was coming off a 5 goal 19 pts season and had 3 years left on his deal that paid him 3.25 per. Teams were scared off because they doubted he'd post 30 ever again. I think had we waived him this year instead of last, we probably would have gotten a taker.

Nobody is picking up Smith from waivers when he has two years left at $3.25. The cap room is much more valuable than him.

 

[little BiG]

hope your wrong. Please say no to Lucic.

+1

 

[Qward]

I think we are going to see a Ryan for Lucic swap also.
Bobby is owed $22.5M over the next three year.
Lucic is owed $16M over the next four. His signing bonus was paid yesterday meaning he is getting $3 from this season, July 17/2020 he gets another 3M bus his salary is $1M, $2.5M sb + $2.5M salary followed by $3 SB + $1M Salary. We know Pickled Liver doesnt like to pay signing bonuses, but if $8.5 Milan will be owed over the next 4 years in signing bonuses is reduced by the loss of Bobby Ryan and his remaining $4M in signing bonuses.



To Edmonton:
Ryan cap hit $7.25 actual 7.5
Jaros cap hit 755K, actual 805K
Total cap hit $8.005, actual cost $8,305,000


To Ottawa
Lucic Cap hit $6M
Russel Cap hit $4M
Total Cap hit $10M, actual cost $7M
Pool Party is the sweetener for taking these contract. Maybe even a 4th round pick since Ottawa has to pay the $1M signing bonus for Russel next year.

Not great for us, but we would get a pick and reclamation project that could help the rebuild.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think we are going to see a Ryan for Lucic swap also.
Bobby is owed $22.5M over the next three year.
Lucic is owed $16M over the next four. His signing bonus was paid yesterday meaning he is getting $3 from this season, July 17/2020 he gets another 3M bus his salary is $1M, $2.5M sb + $2.5M salary followed by $3 SB + $1M Salary. We know Pickled Liver doesnt like to pay signing bonuses, but if $8.5 Milan will be owed over the next 4 years in signing bonuses is reduced by the loss of Bobby Ryan and his remaining $4M in signing bonuses.



To Edmonton:
Ryan cap hit $7.25 actual 7.5
Jaros cap hit 755K, actual 805K
Total cap hit $8.005, actual cost $8,305,000


To Ottawa
Lucic Cap hit $6M
Russel Cap hit $4M
Total Cap hit $10M, actual cost $7M
Pool Party is the sweetener for taking these contract. Maybe even a 4th round pick since Ottawa has to pay the $1M signing bonus for Russel next year.

Not great for us, but we would get a pick and reclamation project that could help the rebuild.

I think you're right about a Lucic/Ryan trade, I don't think we move Jaros though. That would create a huge hole going forward at RD.

Others have suggested Lucic/Manning (2.25M cap/2M salary) for Ryan/Condon (1.4M cap/3M salary).

I could see something like that, maybe we swap Puljujarvi for a 2nd or Puljujarvi for someone like Chlapik as a function of the trade.

Although, it wouldn't surprise me if there was no sweetener coming our way under the idea that we're saving millions in cash, and that's our sweetener.

 

[Crosside]

Lucic + Pulju + first vs Boedker + Condon

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Lucic + Pulju + first vs Boedker + Condon

Way too skewed towards Edmonton. Ryan is our only piece that could offset the negative value of Lucic's contract. If we are taking Lucic without Ryan going the other way, we should be getting the equivalent of 3-4 1st round picks.

Edmonton probably won't give up 4 1st rounders to dump that contract......which is why if it happens it will probably be a Ryan for Lucic swap with other elements.

Even if Ryan's cap hit is higher, the contract is shorter term, he is closer to LTIRetirement with his fingers, or he could be bought out next year for much less than Lucic's buyout.

On the otherwise, Ottawa saves cash and Lucic is probably more useful to us than a middle 6 scorer. It's not difficult to replace Ryan's offense but at least Lucic will punch people in the face who take liberties with Brannstrom. He is still good enough to play 10-13 minutes a night while doing that.

 

[Qward]

I think you're right about a Lucic/Ryan trade, I don't think we move Jaros though. That would create a huge hole going forward at RD.

Others have suggested Lucic/Manning (2.25M cap/2M salary) for Ryan/Condon (1.4M cap/3M salary).

I could see something like that, maybe we swap Puljujarvi for a 2nd or Puljujarvi for someone like Chlapik as a function of the trade.

Although, it wouldn't surprise me if there was no sweetener coming our way under the idea that we're saving millions in cash, and that's our sweetener.

I grabbed Russels name from the rumor section. He does play RD even though he shoots left.

of course you could be 100% or we could both be 100% wrong, its hard to tell when the quality of our GMs trades are affected by how successful he was on tinder the night before.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

If there is anything we don't have enough off, its BOTTOM 6 FORWARDS!!

Bottom pairing defensemen?

Backup goalies?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I grabbed Russels name from the rumor section. He does play RD even though he shoots left.

of course you could be 100% or we could both be 100% wrong, its hard to tell when the quality of our GMs trades are affected by how successful he was on tinder the night before.

EDM is probably going to want to make things as neutral as possible with short term cap if we have them taking Condon as well as the higher AAV of Ryan. I just don't think the Senators would want Russell @ 4M this season.

Manning+Lucic is 8.250M in cap and 5.000M in salary (after Lucic's bonus is paid)

Ryan+Condon (buried) is 8.575M in cap and 10.500M in salary.

That is only + 325k in cap (closer to +1M if Manning was going to be on their roster since they have to replace him, but he spent time in the AHL last year so it is plausible they don't have him penciled in for a full time NHL spot) for EDM while saving Ottawa 5.7M in salary this season (The difference between the two pairs of salary, along with the additional 700k that is saved via having Manning dressed in the NHL as one of our *usually 22 skaters when Condon would presumably be buried)

Money/cap checks out for both sides. It just comes down to who should owe who the sweetener in terms of picks/prospects or if the trade is even. If the trade is even, maybe it's beneficial for both sides to hamfist a Puljujarvi swap into the deal where EDM either gets a 2nd or a different prospect. I could see something like Puljujarvi for a 2nd which would probably be fair value at this point, but because most fans won't know what Puljujarvi's value was around the league, Ottawa could sell it like they just got a blue chip "top 5 pick" type prospect while "only" giving up a 2nd.

Once Russell is put in the trade, a lot of Ottawa's savings disappear, and he is still under contract next season where as Manning is a UFA.

 

[Sensinitis]

I think we are going to see a Ryan for Lucic swap also.
Bobby is owed $22.5M over the next three year.
Lucic is owed $16M over the next four. His signing bonus was paid yesterday meaning he is getting $3 from this season, July 17/2020 he gets another 3M bus his salary is $1M, $2.5M sb + $2.5M salary followed by $3 SB + $1M Salary. We know Pickled Liver doesnt like to pay signing bonuses, but if $8.5 Milan will be owed over the next 4 years in signing bonuses is reduced by the loss of Bobby Ryan and his remaining $4M in signing bonuses.

Not great for us, but we would get a pick and reclamation project that could help the rebuild.

Lucic has an extra year on his K and is worse than Ryan... That would be a bad bad idea.

Hold on to Ryan and a team will bite on him eventually. His K isn't as bad as it used to be. If he puts up 40+pts again and we retain 0.5-1M, he can easily be traded for an asset rather than having negative value like Lucic does.

Smith was a consistent 30 point guy as well and no one would take him off our hands for free. Now maybe the expiring contract for Boedker will help his trade value but I don't think teams really value this kind of player. He's not a guy you can really put into any meaningful role on special teams or put on a shutdown line since he's atrocious in his own end. Just about every team probably has a few guys in the AHL who can give you what Boedker will, which is very little.

I see what you're saying but Smith wasn't a consistent 30 pt guy. He scored 30 pts just twice, and he was basically stapled to Mark Stone while doing so...

 

[TheNewEra]

I don't think we could move him unless we sweetened the pot. People looking to add to their roster are not likely going to have much interest in Boedker. Would he clear waivers? Good chance he would.

i disagree. Boedker is expiring and has put up 35 points over the last two years

right now he would probably clear waivers because of his 4 million cap hit, but at the deadline he would have a cap hit of 1.2-1.6 (too lazy to do the math right now) and down the stretch as a deadline pickup we have seen worse players move for something

brassard+6th got a 3rd and brassard came with a higher cap hit

of course we have to factor the fact that brassard can play center and wing but he also had less production but even that out with his cap hit and we could probably get at least a 4th at the deadline

so nothing special but he is a trade asset, just not now

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Lucic has an extra year on his K and is worse than Ryan... That would be a bad bad idea.

Hold on to Ryan and a team will bite on him eventually. His K isn't as bad as it used to be. If he puts up 40+pts again and we retain 0.5-1M, he can easily be traded for an asset rather than having negative value like Lucic does.



I see what you're saying but Smith wasn't a consistent 30 pt guy. He scored 30 pts just twice, and he was basically stapled to Mark Stone while doing so...

Ryan is better but he isn't good enough to justify keeping if we can shed a few million a season and also pick up an asset like Puljujarvi or a pick via flipping Ryan for Lucic.

Salary for us is like cap space for other teams. It's a finite resource. If we free up salary, that means we can add or retain a player who we otherwise would not have been able to keep.

It sucks, but it's the way it is. We don't have an official source on our current budget but we know we operated that way prior to the rebuild where 68M was our salary ceiling. Despite only spending 68M, Dorion had to get the go ahead from Melnyk to increase spending both at the 2017 TDL and when acquiring Duchene. (Dorion framed it as a positive, as in Melnyk is willing to spend because he did not turn down Dorion's requests for slightly more budget space).

Ryan isn't a star anymore. The freed up money from flipping him in a Lucic deal would be more useful than having Ryan as a middle 6 winger instead of Lucic as a bottom 6 pugilist.

 

[Sensinitis]

Ryan is better but he isn't good enough to justify keeping if we can shed a few million a season and also pick up an asset like Puljujarvi or a pick via flipping Ryan for Lucic.

Salary for us is like cap space for other teams. It's a finite resource. If we free up salary, that means we can add or retain a player who we otherwise would not have been able to keep.

It sucks, but it's the way it is. We don't have an official source on our current budget but we know we operated that way prior to the rebuild where 68M was our salary ceiling. Despite only spending 68M, Dorion had to get the go ahead from Melnyk to increase spending both at the 2017 TDL and when acquiring Duchene. (Dorion framed it as a positive, as in Melnyk is willing to spend because he did not turn down Dorion's requests for slightly more budget space).

Ryan isn't a star anymore. The freed up money from flipping him in a Lucic deal would be more useful than having Ryan as a middle 6 winger instead of Lucic as a bottom 6 pugilist.

I completely understand what you're saying, but I can't see this team trading a better player for a worse, even slower (I know right? slower than Ryan? damn...) player with an extra year on his contract. Also Lucic is a LW and that's where we are deepest depth-wise. I just don't see it. Patience is the game with Ryan. He can still teach things to younger players like Batherson, Davidsson, etc (young RWs), and he'll end up returning something by this summer or deadline 2021 if he stays healthy.

 

[TheNewEra]

I completely understand what you're saying, but I can't see this team trading a better player for a worse, even slower (I know right? slower than Ryan? damn...) player with an extra year on his contract. Also Lucic is a LW and that's where we are deepest depth-wise. I just don't see it. Patience is the game with Ryan. He can still teach things to younger players like Batherson, Davidsson, etc (young RWs), and he'll end up returning something by this summer or deadline 2021 if he stays healthy.

i would love to believe you but we literally just did that with ceci and zaistev lol

 

[Sensinitis]

i would love to believe you but we literally just did that with ceci and zaistev lol

Are you saying Zaitsev is worse than Ceci? Because the only thing Z has in common with my previous post is more term on his K.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

I'd rather keep Ryan than to take on Lucics contract even if they include Pulj

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

I'd rather keep Ryan than to take on Lucics contract even if they include Pulj

Yeah, Pulijujarvi's value is at an all time low. The upside isn't there to take on that risk.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

I'd rather keep Ryan than to take on Lucics contract even if they include Pulj

I feel the opposite way.

Lucic is only signed a year longer than Ryan. That's not much of a risk to take for the reward of a potential top 6 forward in Pulji.