Speculation: Trade Rumor/Speculation Thread XXII: St Louis vs St Louis

[Thirty One]

St Louis long-term is a guaranteed 1.25 seasons. That's not long-term

Still 5 times longer than Callahan's guaranteed 0.25 seasons.

 

[Kakko]

St Louis long-term is a guaranteed 1.25 seasons. That's not long-term

There is still a huge difference between a guy signed through next year and a rental

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

No reason?

Martin St. Louis is 'no reason'?

No reason.

As in, Sather can do the deal without including our most valuable draft piece.

 

[Clown Fiesta]

I'm not sure what past performance has to do with it. He's not going to play forever...the guy will be 39 years old in a few months.

Past performance especially anything he has done since turning 35 has a lot to do with it especially considering how many people think he is too old. He's produced at over a PPG over the last decade since he was Callahan's age and doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Callahan won't produce at .5 PPG for the next 10 years.

No reason.

As in, Sather can do the deal without including our most valuable draft piece.

Yeah or Yzerman can say thanks, but no thanks we'll keep a disgruntled Marty instead of giving him away for free.

 

[Kakko]

No reason.

As in, Sather can do the deal without including our most valuable draft piece.

You're not getting St. Louis for an un-signed Callahan straight up. You're simply not.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Getting an elite scoring forward is hardly no reason, IMO.

You're missing the point of not having any leverage.

St. Louis demands a trade, hypothetically. Leverage gone for Yzerman.

 

[GAGLine]

What if that 38 year old had 648 points in his last 593 games and has missed 7 games in the past 11 seasons?

I'm more concerned with his next 105 games.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

You're not getting St. Louis for an un-signed Callahan straight up. You're simply not.

Maybe not a happy, 30 year old, St. Louis who just signed his contract.

But an unhappy, 38 year old, St. Louis who will be a free agent in a year's time?

It's not out of the realm of possibility.

Not saying it's necessarily fair, but crazier trades have happened.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

No reason.

As in, Sather can do the deal without including our most valuable draft piece.

Well, he could if Steve Yzerman overvalues Callahan's trade value as much as you do.

I doubt he does, however.

 

[Thirty One]

I'm not sure what past performance has to do with it. He's not going to play forever...the guy will be 39 years old in a few months.

Past performance is probably the best indicator of future performance we have. I don't think Marty's performance is going to fall off a cliff in the next 1.5 years.

 

[aufheben]

I'm more concerned with his next 105 games.

Why?

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Past performance especially anything he has done since turning 35 has a lot to do with it especially considering how many people think he is too old. He's produced at over a PPG over the last decade since he was Callahan's age and doesn't show any signs of slowing down. Callahan won't produce at .5 PPG for the next 10 years.



Yeah or Yzerman can say thanks, but no thanks we'll keep a disgruntled Marty instead of giving him away for free.

Oh my bad. I forgot our captain has even that much value. How could I?

 

[eco's bones]

I think Sather caves on Girardi. 6 years, 5.75 or whatever he's asking for.

If I were to guess he signs Girardi. Is it caving? Not really. Girardi's probably doing better $ and term wise if he goes to UFA.

 

[TheTakedown]

Still 5 times longer than Callahan's guaranteed 0.25 seasons.

that's a good point. Callahan will be effective for.. what, 3-5 seasons at most?

If MSL is effective for 3, then the trade is worth it

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Well, he could if Steve Yzerman overvalues Callahan's trade value as much as you do.

I doubt he does, however.

I mean I guess we'll see what his trade value is within the next week and a half.

There will be bragging rights for either BRB or KJ36.

 

[Thirty One]

I'm more concerned with his next 105 games.

Me too. I'm pretty sure they'll be great, though.

 

[Inferno]

anyone notice how Boomer repeatedly said its what "he feels" is going to happen, rather than its what he actually heard is going to happen?

 

[NYR Viper]

I'm not spinning any facts. What does it matter to Tampa how old Callahan is if he just signs with Buffalo in the offseason? We'd get a year and a half plus 2 playoff runs with one of the most dynamic forwards in the world.

There was a team negotiating with Callahan's agent. Sather gave them permission. What if that team is TB. What would a team pay for a signed Callahan?

 

[Clown Fiesta]

Oh my bad. I forgot our captain has even that much value. How could I?

You know what I meant, which is the sad part. You understand you would just rather keep going round and round about how we somehow have an insane amount of leverage because MSL isn't as happy now. He's still a professional, you're making the same assumption people made during the Nash fiasco and that didn't stop Howson from waiting it out.

 

[Trxjw]

So, at this point, I guess we can assume no updates until Dreger and McKenzie hit the air this evening?

Yeah, unless the trade goes down today, I think they'll save their updates for TSN tonight.

 

[Thirty One]

anyone notice how Boomer repeatedly said its what "he feels" is going to happen, rather than its what he actually heard is going to happen?

Feelings are the best way to evaluate anything, though.

 

[aufheben]

There was a team negotiating with Callahan's agent. Sather gave them permission. What if that team is TB. What would a team pay for a signed Callahan?

A lot more, unless it's a brutal contract.

 

[Todd Harvey]

There's not much I can add that hasn't been covered.
The only things I'd stress again as I see people try to weigh some of this potential deal is economics could be playing a bigger part than is realized, on TB's end.

Remember they cut LeCavalier loose largely for financial reasons.
St Louis is due $5m+ next year. Very reasonable and they apparently are willing to spend that for Callahan on a long term deal, but combined with STL's trade demands it becomes sensible to take Cally for the playoffs, take a conditional pick (which is almost certainly transferring from us to them, not the other way around), take the exclusive negotiating window with Callahan at season's end, and see what happens.
They also avoid having to deal with MSL in his walk year next year.
We're having trouble with Cally at 28. MSL's 38, so just imagine, and only Stamkos is more highly visible there, though even he doesnt have MSL's history.

The other little mentioned factor has been MSL's standing in TB. A deal like this certainly involves the owner, and I doubt they want to squabble publicly with MSL. Plus MSL can have them boxed in to a degree with his NMC, and I dont think they really want to stick it to him after all he's done there. If things went sour, they'll cut bait reasonably, take their chances with signing Cally; but if not, they've got some money to play with on the open market and have our pick.

And if it's Cally + a conditional 1 going, I cant see the beef.
We're better offensively now. We're better financially next year because MSL is signed cheaper than Cally will be getting paid. And he's more durable!
And I think long term it frees us, as has been discussed. we're not locked into either Cally or MSL long term.

guess thats a lot to say for a guy who had little to add LOL.
But think it's pretty relevant.

The last thing I meant to add was, its an unconventional deal; but we started from a real bad place in light of Cally's demands, which couldnt responsibly be met. Ive seen very few if any remarks saying NYR should hand him a blank check.

So forgetting for a moment the age/size/future asset management bull (which no one can predict right now), we actually come away with the better player right now, heading into the playoffs, from a compromised position.
That ain't bad.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

You know what I meant, which is the sad part. You understand you would just rather keep going round and round about how we somehow have an insane amount of leverage because MSL isn't as happy now. He's still a professional, you're making the same assumption people made during the Nash fiasco and that didn't stop Howson from waiting it out.

I understand what you meant, which makes the "for free" comment a little confusing.

Callahan has value. Enough where you wouldn't need to add in a conditional 1st for a guy who will not be a part of our long term future plans.

A 1st would have to be added in a package of prospects and young, unproven, players. Not in a captain for captain swap.

 

[Thirty One]

A lot more, unless it's a brutal contract.

Can confirm. Brutal contract.