Speculation: Trade / Roster Speculation Thread XXXIV: Over the edge of being a little closer.

[bernmeister]

...

Based on 40 games or so?

In addition to overall consensus expectations, just looking at his form and technique suggests he is blue chip.
Not saying he can do the super tall height = reach = improved ability to catch G off balance a la Jagr or more classically, Lemieux, but in Hertl's case see good form.

Marcel Hossa had 8 or 9 goals in 11 games for us. If you had been on HF at that point, I wonder what you would have thought his value to be?

# of factors on value, value might have been properly, temporarily skewed at that time, but would have been correctly based on results and expectations.

40 games is not long enough to judge a player where roughly 45% of his goal production came in 5 games.

I concede this is a fair point, but not an overwhelming or dominant one.
However, it is also accurate to point out that Hertl was one cog in a big scoring machine and was fitting in w/guys like Marleau, etc,; and he is a rookie. So with an adjustment going forward to offset all of the above, I expect he will be close to Kreider in a pivot going forward.

 

[mti79]

Kovalchuk actually did hit free agency and in hindsight, I'm thrilled we didn't go after him.....

But I agree that there is no way Stammer hits the open market.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Kovalchuk actually did hit free agency and in hindsight, I'm thrilled we didn't go after him.....

But I agree that there is no way Stammer hits the open market.

Touche. I should rephrase and I will, people were assuming that A. they would hit FA and that B. we would somehow be locks to sign them.

 

[bernmeister]

....

Bern,

If we go back and review most of the offers that you have been blasted on it's because you are offering up 3-4 and sometimes 5 prime assets ...

Somewhat guilty as to M.O.,

but disagree as to

for meager returns in the grand scheme of things.

Stepan is a 1st liner, yet the proposals you make include him with a top pairing on D (Staal AND Girardi) as if he were a throw in.

I'm asking for greater talent in return, whether it is JVR, EKane, or other.
Have to overpay to get the assets you want.

You dont' assign proper value to the assets you are moving.

No prob with this as your opinion, a generalization.
Agree to disagree.

There is no vindication here for you other than some posters (myself included) that may not have been willing to trade Stepan in the past now being more open to the discussion of moving him if the trade made sense, as most of your proposals do not.

There is complete and total vindication.
Some have been completely close-minded about even entertaining what a return might be, of just Step or a Stepan+ package.
Yeah, I am totally vindicated.

Again, as to most of my props "do not" "make sense", I disagree.

In fact, you say this all the time. No Coke for Pepsi. I would argue that's exactly what we need. A change in mindset of the player if the talent remains equal.

No we should not trade unless there is a profit to do so.
In theory that could be worthwhile for a nominal advantage, or maybe not unless there is a significant upgrade. Depends upon the player(s), circumstances, etc.

As an organization we are as shallow as you can get right now. We cannot be moving three top line players for an un-proven player. We do not have the system to support such a move.

Yes and no.
I am more optimistic that guys like Miller, for example, will work out. Guys like Yogan can be given 4th, MAYBE even 3rd line mins.
I sometimes get burned with this, but even then it's not the end of the world flame out. And I take satisfaction in being ahead of the curve on a guy like Talbot.
I would guess being ahead of the curve and pushing us to have everybody pushing from the bottom up is more constructive for us than destructive as you imply.

However, there is a more important consideration.
If you want to wait and take your chances, there is nothing wrong with the slow but steady approach. However the problem there is you are not just trying to get a winning team, but one that is good enough to prevail vs teams with elite or premium players who are difference makers, which kill us, especially in the playoffs, and esp. given playoffs = no shootouts.

Other than unrealistically hoping for swindles a la McDonagh, and FA, which is also limited, the ONLY option remaining is to buy difference makers, even if a high price, in some cases even an exorbitant price.

The result of that is you trust in Brassard to offset Stepan.
Ok, that is a separate debate in and of itself.

But the point is Stepan + X + Y gets you a real substantial difference maker.
It is not like the Martians kidnapped Stepan and now you have just Brass and nothing to show for it. It is Brass and one or two others, stepping up, for better or worse, PLUS the difference maker(s) we acquire. That is what my detractors don't get.

Thanks for constructive criticism, even if I don't fully agree.
til tom.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Somewhat guilty as to M.O.,

but disagree as to




I'm asking for greater talent in return, whether it is JVR, EKane, or other.
Have to overpay to get the assets you want.


No prob with this as your opinion, a generalization.
Agree to disagree.


There is complete and total vindication.
Some have been completely close-minded about even entertaining what a return might be, of just Step or a Stepan+ package.
Yeah, I am totally vindicated.

Again, as to most of my props "do not" "make sense", I disagree.


No we should not trade unless there is a profit to do so.
In theory that could be worthwhile for a nominal advantage, or maybe not unless there is a significant upgrade. Depends upon the player(s), circumstances, etc.


Yes and no.
I am more optimistic that guys like Miller, for example, will work out. Guys like Yogan can be given 4th, MAYBE even 3rd line mins.
I sometimes get burned with this, but even then it's not the end of the world flame out. And I take satisfaction in being ahead of the curve on a guy like Talbot.
I would guess being ahead of the curve and pushing us to have everybody pushing from the bottom up is more constructive for us than destructive as you imply.

However, there is a more important consideration.
If you want to wait and take your chances, there is nothing wrong with the slow but steady approach. However the problem there is you are not just trying to get a winning team, but one that is good enough to prevail vs teams with elite or premium players who are difference makers, which kill us, especially in the playoffs, and esp. given playoffs = no shootouts.

Other than unrealistically hoping for swindles a la McDonagh, and FA, which is also limited, the ONLY option remaining is to buy difference makers, even if a high price, in some cases even an exorbitant price.

The result of that is you trust in Brassard to offset Stepan.
Ok, that is a separate debate in and of itself.

But the point is Stepan + X + Y gets you a real substantial difference maker.
It is not like the Martians kidnapped Stepan and now you have just Brass and nothing to show for it. It is Brass and one or two others, stepping up, for better or worse, PLUS the difference maker(s) we acquire. That is what my detractors don't get.

Thanks for constructive criticism, even if I don't fully agree.
til tom.

Incorrect. You usually have to overpay to get assets that are not available. Additionally, there is a difference between overpay, ridiculous overpay, and stupid overpay. Most of yours range on the latter 2 (I am not calling you stupid or anything so please do not think that).

 

[pld459666]

Somewhat guilty as to M.O.,

but disagree as to




I'm asking for greater talent in return, whether it is JVR, EKane, or other.
Have to overpay to get the assets you want.


No prob with this as your opinion, a generalization.
Agree to disagree.


There is complete and total vindication.
Some have been completely close-minded about even entertaining what a return might be, of just Step or a Stepan+ package.
Yeah, I am totally vindicated.

Again, as to most of my props "do not" "make sense", I disagree.


No we should not trade unless there is a profit to do so.
In theory that could be worthwhile for a nominal advantage, or maybe not unless there is a significant upgrade. Depends upon the player(s), circumstances, etc.


Yes and no.
I am more optimistic that guys like Miller, for example, will work out. Guys like Yogan can be given 4th, MAYBE even 3rd line mins.
I sometimes get burned with this, but even then it's not the end of the world flame out. And I take satisfaction in being ahead of the curve on a guy like Talbot.
I would guess being ahead of the curve and pushing us to have everybody pushing from the bottom up is more constructive for us than destructive as you imply.

However, there is a more important consideration.
If you want to wait and take your chances, there is nothing wrong with the slow but steady approach. However the problem there is you are not just trying to get a winning team, but one that is good enough to prevail vs teams with elite or premium players who are difference makers, which kill us, especially in the playoffs, and esp. given playoffs = no shootouts.

Other than unrealistically hoping for swindles a la McDonagh, and FA, which is also limited, the ONLY option remaining is to buy difference makers, even if a high price, in some cases even an exorbitant price.

The result of that is you trust in Brassard to offset Stepan.
Ok, that is a separate debate in and of itself.

But the point is Stepan + X + Y gets you a real substantial difference maker.
It is not like the Martians kidnapped Stepan and now you have just Brass and nothing to show for it. It is Brass and one or two others, stepping up, for better or worse, PLUS the difference maker(s) we acquire. That is what my detractors don't get.

Thanks for constructive criticism, even if I don't fully agree.
til tom.

The problem as I see it is that these guys are not THAT much better than Stepan is right now to justify in any way the inclusion of Staal alone, let alone Staal AND Girardi.

And for the record, no one was un willing to move Stepan. They are un willing to move Stepan in a deal for a winger leaving us with Brassard and Richards as our top 6 centers.

Especially for a winger that wasn't really all that much better on the wing than Stepan is at center.

And I disagree. If there was a player our there that played with more intensity, grittier style and posted the same numbers as Stepan and that team was willing to make an even swap? I would do that. Coke for Pepsi. Absolutely.

The Rangers are not physically engaged in their approach and it's going to be the down fall.

With the talent that they have three lines deep, if they were more willing to make life miserable for a goalie, they would be no worse than tied this series and maybe even leading it.

Watch Gallagher on Montreal. A little guy, but battles like a demon to go to and stay in front of Rask. All of what they do is to get the puck to the front and crash away.

The Rangers, for the most part do not have that same desire.

So yeah, if I can get a player in here that produces the same numbers and plays the PP and PK but is more physically engaged, I make those moves in a heart beat.

Vanilla Coke for Pepsi? I do that all day.

 

[Gardner McKay]

The problem as I see it is that these guys are not THAT much better than Stepan is right now to justify in any way the inclusion of Staal alone, let alone Staal AND Girardi.

And for the record, no one was un willing to move Stepan. They are un willing to move Stepan in a deal for a winger leaving us with Brassard and Richards as our top 6 centers.

Especially for a winger that wasn't really all that much better on the wing than Stepan is at center.

And I disagree. If there was a player our there that played with more intensity, grittier style and posted the same numbers as Stepan and that team was willing to make an even swap? I would do that. Coke for Pepsi. Absolutely.

The Rangers are not physically engaged in their approach and it's going to be the down fall.

With the talent that they have three lines deep, if they were more willing to make life miserable for a goalie, they would be no worse than tied this series and maybe even leading it.

Watch Gallagher on Montreal. A little guy, but battles like a demon to go to and stay in front of Rask. All of what they do is to get the puck to the front and crash away.

The Rangers, for the most part do not have that same desire.

So yeah, if I can get a player in here that produces the same numbers and plays the PP and PK but is more physically engaged, I make those moves in a heart beat.

Vanilla Coke for Pepsi? I do that all day.

Spectacular post. Very spot on.

Trading Stepan + Girardi/Staal better yield something drastically better than Evander Kane.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I would simply stop watching hockey. Not even joking.

Haha me too. I would cease to be a Rangers fan if that happened.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

I wouldn't give that much for our own version of Kreider or theirs. You value Kreider way to high. That is your problem. And Hertl. Ridiculously high. His shooting % was lie 24% for a while. That is NOT sustainable. If he didn't score 4 goals on us, I don't think you would have such a constant hard on for the kid.

Spot on. Bern's MO is overvaluing players in trades. The guy thinks Girardi is worth 3 first round picks for goodness sakes.

 

[zuckera1]

There's no way we'll be able to keep Staal if we give Stralman 4 million a year.

We certainly could but then there's no room to keep a part or two of the Pouliot-Brass-MZA line. That line impacts the game more than Anton Stralman. I like Stralsy but he priced himself off the team with his solid play.

The only way I re-sign Stralman is if I know I'm going to trade Staal this Summer. But if we trade Staal who's the 2nd LD? Certainly not John Moore.

Defense for next year...
McDonagh (4.7) - Girardi (5.5)
Staal (resigned - 5.75) - Klein (2.9)
Moore (1.1) - Diaz/McIlrath

 

[zuckera1]

Regarding the 1C discussion. I'd rather trade a package of Miller + Hagelin + 2nd for a Eric Staal or Spezza if we're truly "going for it," rather than giving Paul friggin Stastny over 7 million for whatever.

For now, if it was me I'd roll with Stepan - Brassard - Grabovski/Legwand (UFA Stopgap) and reassess next year when both Stepan and Brassard are up again (assuming Brassard's 3.7 QO is met).

 

[GarretJoseph*]

Regarding the 1C discussion. I'd rather trade a package of Miller + Hagelin + 2nd for a Eric Staal or Spezza if we're truly "going for it," rather than giving Paul friggin Stastny over 7 million for whatever.

For now, if it was me I'd roll with Stepan - Brassard - Grabovski/Legwand (UFA Stopgap) and reassess next year when both Stepan and Brassard are up again (assuming Brassard's 3.7 QO is met).

We gotta dump more salary on Carolina for Staal, hes got a huge cap hit. I tried a bunch of times to squeeze J Staal & Eric into the Rangers line up but just doesn't work with the cap hits.

 

[Kokoschka]

Regarding the 1C discussion. I'd rather trade a package of Miller + Hagelin + 2nd for a Eric Staal or Spezza if we're truly "going for it," rather than giving Paul friggin Stastny over 7 million for whatever.

For now, if it was me I'd roll with Stepan - Brassard - Grabovski/Legwand (UFA Stopgap) and reassess next year when both Stepan and Brassard are up again (assuming Brassard's 3.7 QO is met).

Legwand would be my first choice as well. Big guy, physical, versatile. Grabovski is a decent option, but it gives us more of the same at center. Passing first guy, not overly speedy, not really a physical presence.

What are our other options? Hope JT Miller pans out. As soon as you're hoping something goes right, you're not in a strong position. Gotta have a backup plan. Ideally, Miller blows everybody out of the water in training camp. What if he doesn't? Goc, Santorelli, Ott. I'd be okay with any of those. Ott can be a pest, Santorelli is a good skater and can be used in many situations. Adds some speed. Goc is usually very intelligent on the ice, responsible defensively. Of course, none of those is going to beast it up offensively, so once Stepan or Brassard are injured or hit a cold streak, we're not in a good position. I feel we have to upgrade at center:

Stepan
Brassard
Goc/Santorelli/Ott/Miller
Lindberg/Moore
down the middle.

Bottom 6ers are good to very good. Stepan as a first liner and Brassard as a second liner have some question marks. Solutions? I have none, but I don't get paid millions to come up with them. I'd usually say it's time for Sather to do some work, but I'm afraid of the outcome.

On Lindberg. I think he's going under the radar on this site. Had some time adjusting to the smaller rink, but, from the few games I was able to catch, got more comfortable in Hartford as the season went along. Smart guy, good defensively. Shoots it when he has the opportunity. On the other hand, smallish player, not overly physical. Just as Stepan and Brassard. More of the same.

On this teams identity. Where are we going? What's the bigger philosophy behind the Rangers' roster? Hard to detect. We're certainly not a physical team. The way I see, the thing we're closest to is a fast skating team, that has to rely on its transition game. You saw that last night. It was a big part of our success. Smart passers as well. Brassard, Stepan, Moore, Richards. Brainy guys down the middle. Need to get a more physical, heavyweight version of Dom Moore, ideally. Hagelin, St Louis, Kreider, Pouliot, Zuccarello, Nash. Some speed and skill on the wings.

At this point, I just want this team to go with something, heck ANYTHING that could be considered a concept. It takes time. No drastic turnover. Buyout Richards. Re-evaluate the Nash situation next January. No point in trading the guy now, plus he's almost a lock to score 30 if he stays healthy. I've not been happy with that trade at all, but I'll root for Nash as hard as for any other player on this team. If he puts up 25 before the deadline and you get an offer, you have to consider. Right now, there's nothing to gain by trading him. Keep Hagelin on the 3rd line and he'll be okay. Can play top 6 minutes as well, but shouldn't be doing that over a full season. I'm not trading my 15-20 goal 3rd line who can push back defenses with his speed. I know he sometimes seems all over the place. Guess what, if he had Stepans head, you'd be looking at a 60+ point winger who can play in every situation. Those are not common around the league. What to do with Pouliot? Re-Sign for depth? Placeholder for Fast? Regular Top 9er?

Our defense. We need some offense out of those guys. Klein, Girardi, Stralman, Staal. Those guys are as good as any in their own zone, but black holes offensively, the seldom seen Girardi top shelf blast aside. Who replaces Stralman? Niskanen would be neat, but probably too expensive. Do you take your chances with Diaz? Where does McIlrath fit in? Can John Moore step up and contribute offensively? I quite honestly have some hope left for that guy to contribute on the offense. His wheels are as good as any on this team. He's physical if he feels like it. He can blast the puck, but he's off target too often. Shooting practice and a mental coach. I mean it. He often appears to not be in the game. He was yesterday and he was very decent defensively. Can push the opposite players back with his speed as well as with his physicality. You don't trade that kind of player at 23.

 

[Doctyl]

Really hope Slats keeps Brassard around for a while. Just had his best season of his career and has amazing chemistry with Zucc and Pouliot. Brass struggled in the flyers series but hes been money in the pens series and last year too.

 

[bernmeister]

Incorrect. You usually have to overpay to get assets that are not available. Additionally, there is a difference between overpay, ridiculous overpay, and stupid overpay. Most of yours range on the latter 2 (I am not calling you stupid or anything so please do not think that).

Disagree, that it is "incorrect".

It IS a matter of supply and demand. You want a premium guy, they don't grow on trees, you ask fair value, you are buffed; you ask again with moderate overpay, the answer is still no.

This leaves you with 2 choices.
1
Massive overpay, which is too much for another team --- assuming that team is more concerned with overall quality and not, like NYR, looking for premium/elite adds ---- to pass up.
2
Keep status quo.

But remember, this is what YOU are overlooking, my premise.
The idea is not to merely improve, it is to acquire difference makers and make other moves to offset what you had to do to get them.

And WHY? Why do I insist on that.
Because the goal is the Cup, and there is no realistic chance of winning cup vs west's elite best.

 

[bernmeister]

....

The problem as I see it is that these guys are not THAT much better than Stepan is right now to justify in any way the inclusion of Staal alone, let alone Staal AND Girardi.

Agree to disagree.

And for the record, no one was un willing to move Stepan. They are un willing to move Stepan in a deal for a winger leaving us with Brassard and Richards as our top 6 centers.

Richards is out soon enough.
Brassard is an acceptable alternative to Stepan.
We agree to disagree.

Especially for a winger that wasn't really all that much better on the wing than Stepan is at center.

We need to upgrade total talent.
We agree to disagree.
And I would take either JVR or EKane over Stepan

And I disagree. If there was a player our there that played with more intensity, grittier style and posted the same numbers as Stepan and that team was willing to make an even swap? I would do that. Coke for Pepsi. Absolutely.

That is not Coke for Pepsi.
That is trying to get Vanilla Coke for the price of regular Coke. Not likely to happen, but try if you like.

balance of post --- losing batttery ....

 

[silverfish]

Big no to Eric Staal for me. Dude is basically getting run out of Carolina. How is he going to handle NY? And that cap hit? Big no for me.

 

[Raspewtin]

Big no to Eric Staal for me. Dude is basically getting run out of Carolina. How is he going to handle NY? And that cap hit? Big no for me.

Yeah pretty much this.

I would inquire on Jordan, though.

 

[haohmaru]

Big no to Eric Staal for me. Dude is basically getting run out of Carolina. How is he going to handle NY? And that cap hit? Big no for me.

He's 29 and clearly needs a change of scenery. If Carolina eats some of that cap hit then I'd be interested. The guy can seriously elevate his level of play when he needs to but on that team he needed to be super human every game. Their D corps is horrible and they're paying Alexander Semin 7M/per. Carolina reboot needed.

 

[silverfish]

He's 29 and clearly needs a change of scenery. If Carolina eats some of that cap hit then I'd be interested. The guy can seriously elevate his level of play when he needs to but on that team he needed to be super human every game. Their D corps is horrible and they're paying Alexander Semin 7M/per. Carolina reboot needed.

While I don't disagree with you on the fact that Carolina needs a reboot, I'd hope it's not the Rangers who "help" them and take Staal.

Unless Carolina eats enough salary to drop Staal's cap hit to $5m/per for the next two seasons, I'm not about giving up the assets it'll take to acquire him.

 

[Riverdale]

Another player who would come here and underperform.

Trade for E. Staal, and watch the Canes surpass the Rangers in a few years.

 

[DelZottoHitTheNetJK]

Keep Brassard, Pouliot, Diaz, Boyle, D. Moore. Let Stralman walk, trade Hagelin, buyout Richards. Sign Stastny. Replace Hagelin with a big, physical right hand shot winger that can add some grit and battle along the boards.


Nash-Stastny-MSL
Pouliot-Brassard-Zucc
Kreider-Stepan- Miller/gritty winger
Boyle-Moore-Dorsett

McDonagh-Girardi
Staal-Klein
Moore-Diaz

Falk/Allen


That's a team with basically a 1A and 1B line, a 2nd line, and one of the best 4th lines in the league. A top 4 defense that is more than capable, and a PMD/PP specialist in Diaz. I don't see how that team, if healthy doesn't get to the cup final

 

[Doctyl]

Whats with the stastny infatuation. That would be a bad signing if hes gonna be paid as the top guy on the market.

 

[SA16]

Well he is going to be paid as the top guy on the market since he is the top guy on the market (for centers)

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

I really dont want Stastny.