I think he’ll get moved because he’ll be 34 in Oct and doesn’t fit a rebuild. He’s already lost a step he was already behind on and will only get worse with time. That’s means his value will only decrease in the future getting you less for a player you don’t need now, much less extend in the future. So holding on to him will drop his value and make your statement of “history dictates the nice return is not gonna be that nice” a self fulfilling prophecy.
They have Reinbacher, Barron, Mailloux, right now, so extending Savard means a young, cheap body will have to be moved to make room for a 35 year old. They also have Konyushkov in the wings and several of the plentiful, young, cheap, LD who can also play RD Such as Guhle, Harris and Struble.
So I’ll ask you this. Why would the Habs not trade Savard for a late 1st or 2nd+ type package at the TDL to make space for the plethora of young D? Keep in mind, nothing is stopping or preventing them from signing or trading for a cheaper, and younger veteran RD IF the need arises.