HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #84: Off-Season edition

[nhlfan9191]

One of the two most important things when building a contender is cap management, the other equally important one is talent evaluation.

In my judgment, Dubois is not a $9-10M talent. He is near Suzuki level ($7.5-8M), and I would be willing to trade for him, or sign him as FA, at that salary.

Exactly the way I feel. I’d go around $8 million but not a dime more. If he wants to play here as much as people claim he does, he won’t beat us up in contract negotiations.

 

[Scriptor]

One of the two most important things when building a contender is cap management, the other equally important one is talent evaluation.

In my judgment, Dubois is not a $9-10M talent. He is near Suzuki level ($7.5-8M), and I would be willing to trade for him, or sign him as FA, at that salary.

As I demonstrate in an earlier post, Dubois' contract can be structured in a way that makes it closer to 9M in real dollars by the end of the contract for Dubois and only has a Cap hit at 8M throughout. It would also shield the player from losing money in case of a lockout at the end of the current CBA. I can easily see Dubois at an 8M cap hit, even if I would be willing to go as high as 8.5M in a smart Cap management environment.

 

[Beendair Donedat]

If you think any 4th liner is the difference between being a contender or not then you aren't a contender.

I understand what you're saying but I'd disagree with that, there are plenty of fourth liners who have been valuable contributors and essential parts of their teams. Look at a guy like Pat Maroon. He's won a bunch of cups, playing a very specific role and he's done very well with it...

You need good soldiers in the trenches in the playoff wars. Always have, always will.

 

[Scriptor]

Dominic Moore, when he was a 4th liner in Montreal, that's the minimal 4th line player quality I want. Kostopoulos, Metropolit, again, minimal quality 4th liners I want.

Pezzetta doesn't cut it for me.

 

[Beendair Donedat]

Dominic Moore, when he was a 4th liner in Montreal, that's the minimal 4th line player quality I want. Kostopoulos, Metropolit, again, minimal quality 4th liners I want.

Pezzetta doesn't cut it for me.

Pezz has grown on me.

He's proven he's willing to go out there and literally do anything he can for the team. The man dropped the gloves against Ryan Reaves of all people. He was on a 0-20 stretch there for wins, but he's shown up time and again when others didn't... You cant teach that, and it does a lot for the morale of a team. He's usually not a liability out there, and I enjoy when he steamrolls guys with his big hits, like when he ran over Corey Perry tonight.

Ideally, I'd like to see another big man on the fourth line with him that could help him with some of the heavy lifting, but Pezz is alright. Maybe bring in a guy like Nick Bjugstad in the off season to have a bigger/heavier fourth line, or someone like Matthieu Olivier, who could also take some of the load off of Xhekaj in the fighting department.

A fourth line of Pezz - Bjugstad - Olivier would be entertaining if nothing else.

 

[Miller Time]

I understand what you're saying but I'd disagree with that, there are plenty of fourth liners who have been valuable contributors and essential parts of their teams. Look at a guy like Pat Maroon. He's won a bunch of cups, playing a very specific role and he's done very well with it...

You need good soldiers in the trenches in the playoff wars. Always have, always will.

Any team that wins the cup will get solid contributions from guys throughout their lineup... and winning helps shine a light on all of them.

But I think the point is that a guy like Maroon is infinitely replaceable, and the bolts likely win without him (replaced by any number of depth nhlers)... Whereas the Kucherov & Herman's are key drivers of the success and far harder to replace.

Winning requires a lot of things, but the elite talent pieces are much harder to get right than the depth role players.

This is exactly what MB got terribly wrong in his attempt to manage a roster.

Marroon was a more effective player earlier in his career before he won a cup (productivity & ice time). it's a credit to his adaptability that he found ways to extend his career & impact as his performance declined & his good fortune that he found himself on cup winning teams...

 

[Gillings]

Pezzettal, Scmezzetta. Seriously, if this guy is a 4th liner when we are contenders, we aren't contenders.

However, for a year or two, to fill out the roster as place holders, Pezzetta and Belizle could do the trick...

The point I’m getting at is he can grow. He can get stronger on his skates and wiser as he ages, he’s got serious underrated offence for a bottom 6 guy. He’s not done growing and I think he’s a great 13th forward on a contender.

 

[ReHabs]

The Tavares signing threw the entire cap structure down the window for the Leafs. Suddenly they went from Kadri making 4.8 as 2C to Tavares making 11 mil as 2C. Couple that signing in with the Matthews/Marner and Nylander contracts, they never had much flexibility to truly improve their blueline or to draft well for one more year. It also rushed their rebuild.

What hurt the Leafs’ cap projection and planning was the worldwide pandemic laying ruin to hockey revenues for over two years. They didn’t do anything wrong with their big4.

JT’s a very good player for them.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Exactly the way I feel. I’d go around $8 million but not a dime more. If he wants to play here as much as people claim he does, he won’t beat us up in contract negotiations.

I don't share this kind of aggressive attitude toward PLD. Any player by the time he is UFA is entitled to choose his one or multiple acceptable teams to play for. Any player approaching UFA is entitled to arbitrate (and thus negotiate) only up to that date and then to hit the market.

Whenever a contract is up, teams have the discretion and right to set the salary range for a position and be as firm as they like in not going over if they don't want to. Even arbitration can be avoided by simpolyt not making a qualifying offer.

Players do not owe anyone a hometown discount, but they also have no power to beat up suitors in contract negotiations. They are not obliged to include a team on their negotiating list nor to accept the highest bid, or any particuplar bid.

Restricted free agents have partial autonomy, unrestricted free agents are totally free.

 

[Expos94]

I'm curious, will you turn on Gorton/Hughes if they trade Panthers 1st, Beck, and Eddy for Dubois this coming draft?

Dubois for free in 24/25 is not really free if the cost to sign is $2M more than what it might be this summer. Cap space is important. Once the agents know what the real cap is for 24/25, you might get surprised on growing AAV contracts. Things change so personally, I do see Gorton/Hughes trading for Dubois on draft day.

They are pretty sharp not gonna turn on them lol... your price is extremely heavy though . I do believe they will go after him this year but personally I would wait and see if he really wants to come. Btw what happens if they draft a top center like Smith , do they still go after him?

I'm curious, will you turn on Gorton/Hughes if they trade Panthers 1st, Beck, and Eddy for Dubois this coming draft?

Dubois for free in 24/25 is not really free if the cost to sign is $2M more than what it might be this summer. Cap space is important. Once the agents know what the real cap is for 24/25, you might get surprised on growing AAV contracts. Things change so personally, I do see Gorton/Hughes trading for Dubois on draft day.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Dominic Moore, when he was a 4th liner in Montreal, that's the minimal 4th line player quality I want. Kostopoulos, Metropolit, again, minimal quality 4th liners I want.

Pezzetta doesn't cut it for me.

Dominic Moore was our 3C in the 2010 Cup run, not 4C.

Pezzetta at the moment is a borderline 12th-14th F in my view. RHP is better, but Pezz brings sandpaper that may earn him a roster spot until the day someone else can play that role just slightly better.

Kostopoulos and Metropolit were replacement level players, not as good at their job as Maroon has been.

 

[Habs Halifax]

They are pretty sharp not gonna turn on them lol... your price is extremely heavy though . I do believe they will go after him this year but personally I would wait and see if he really wants to come. Btw what happens if they draft a top center like Smith , do they still go after him?

Several of my proposed offers are max offers. On HF boards, you got to show max offers of the belittle ones play their nit pick game. lol

To be fair though, I'm going with what Trouba and Horvat returned and I do think that's fair.

Don't matter who we draft (Bedard, Fantilli, or Smith), I'm still trading for Dubois. Stack the top 9 vs having a top 6 strategy is what I say. If some centers have to play wing with other good talent, that's a good situation. Team Canada wins gold medals with this strategy and talent wants to play with talent. I doubt Dach was complaining last night by playing on Suzuki's wing.

 

[Guy Larose]

Exactly the way I feel. I’d go around $8 million but not a dime more. If he wants to play here as much as people claim he does, he won’t beat us up in contract negotiations.

I wish salaries were not divulged like they used to. We'd be talking more about the players than the salaries, as if some are paying out of their own pocket...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Twisted's colours are bleeding through.

He's a Dubois hater, period, whatever the reason.

Dubois isn't that great...

His agent will bleed Montreal...

In fact, objectively, any team would want Dubois in its top-6.

Brisson is tough, but fair and looks to make his client happy above just trying to squeeze every last penny out of every GM as depicted.

Brisson is Jack Hughes' agent and just extended his client for 8 years at 8M, in New Jersey, a State with worse tax laws than Quebec (worst in the league) for the average tax payer (but hockey players aren't the average tax payer).

I don't expect Dubois to sign for 8 X 8M because he is a RFA for only one more year before becoming an UFA, so there won't be as many RFA years eaten up in the 8 year contract as Jack Hughes, but 8.5M is definitely possible as an AAV.

8M would be a hometown discount I'm not counting on, but 8.5M, within the cap structure would be justifiable compared to Suzuki's contract because Suzuki got his payday on his 2nd NHL contract, also with a lot of RFA years bought out.

A lower cap hit will also apply to Caufield on a long term contract, IMO, because of those extra RFA seasons being bought out.

What Brisson can do for his client, that also justifies a more moderate Cap hit, is front-loading the contract (so the actual net dollar amount over time is more, factoring in money in the pocket today VS money in the pocket later), as well as structuring it for maximum tax protection under Canadian and Quebec tax law with strong emphasis on bonuses.

Hughes' contract had very little front-loading (9M in the first year and 8.5M instead of 8M for years 2, 3 and 4, I believe) and little bonus-structure to the contract, with only 2M in signing bonus the first year, and nothing else beyond that.

PLD's AAV of 8M (just for argument's sake, because the calculations are easier, but I think it will likely fall in at 8.5M, like the Horvat AAV that, BTW, also has zero bonus structure and no front-loading in a hight ax State) could, comparatively speaking, be structured:

12M + 12M + 12M + 12M + 4M + 4M + 4M + 4M.

That first extra 4M, in year one, after taxes, properly invested (a safe investment with around a 5% return), by the end of year eight, could easily be worth 6M, before taxes, so a 1.9M gain over the 64M total contract.

Year two's extra 4M, by the end of year eight, could easily be worth around 1.6M more, before taxes.

Year three's extra 4M, by the end of year eight, could easily be worth around 1.3M more, before taxes.

Year four's extra 4M, by the end of year eight, could easily be worth 1.1M more, before taxes.

That's like adding 6M (5.9M rounded up to 6M for the rounding out of the returns along the way) to the 64M, eight-year deal, making it equivalent to a 70M contract over 8 years or, an AAV of 8.75M instead of 8M.

An actual 8.5M AAV, structure with maximum bonuses, would be a contrat equivalent to somewhere between a 9.25M and 9.5M AAV.

Brisson could also insist on a bonus-laden structure like Carey Price's contract, where, at its height, more than 85% of the real salary was paid as bonuses somewhere in the summer, before the start of the season (13M of 15M front loaded, in Carey's case).

The advantage of such structuring, other than the different taxation of bonuses, according to Canadian and Quebec tax law, is that the amount is still forked over to the player in case of a future labour holdout/lockout.

The question always is whether the owner is willing to give those conditions to a player on their contract?

They were for Price.

They weren't for Radulov.

That contract structure with the Russian, as explained by Duvernay-Tardif's agent, would have made Radulov's contract more tax friendly than any contract he could have structured under Texas tax law.

Molson and company were just not ready to fork money out before revenue came in for Rads.

I'm pretty sure that homeboy Dubois would be considered a fair candidate form such treatment if it meant getting him extended to a decent Cap hit for the long term throughout his prime years.

Such a contract structure, compared to Suzuki's contract structure, could even go as far as justifying an 8M Cap hit.

Suzuki has 10M of his total contract in Bonuses, of which none are given during potential conflict years between the owners and the players (possible lockout), for a total of a little over 15%.

With a Price treatment of a little over 83% in bonuses, Dubois, on a 64M contract, would see 53M in bonus money, as opposed to Suzuki's 10M on a 63M contract.

If MON ownership is willing to structure Dubois' contract properly (Hughes knows how to do it -- he just needs approval to do it), they can make an argument for an 8M or 8,5M cap hit, tops, within the market's parameters and present a tax situation that is more advantageous than what players like Jack Hughes and Bo Horvat are getting from their recent long term extensions in the same salary range.

MON has the financial backbone to arrive at such a contract structure. They just need the will to structure it that way and, once they factor in the payoff from acquiring a proven top end local talent throughout his prime years, there shouldn't be much hesitation as to agreeing to structure Dubois' contract as described.

Sorry that the post is so long, but I wanted to explain, in laymen's terms, how Hughes could get Dubois to sign at a reasonable Cap hit that wouldn't challenge the current cap structure for the Habs and would allow to add more talent under the cap ceiling after signing both Caufield and Dubois.

If Caufield's contract is also structured this way, I believe he could be signed long term for 7.5M, slightly under Suzuki's price tag, but, now, maybe I'm getting greedy.

Good stuff. We see it close to the same.

Some who are saying no to Dubois are likely the same ones who thought Danault was just a 3C who should be paid $3.5M and also thought Gallagher made him look better.

Some also think all our futures will be hits. Love our prospect pool and development tracks but lets face it, they all won't reach their ceiling. Adding Dubois is a unique opportunity and I do think Gorton/Hughes will trade for him this summer. What will be the cost? Not sure. If we don't trade for him, the cost may be too high and they wait. I'm open to either option so yeah, I keep saying it... it's not a black/white situation and we don't have all the information.

Rangers are a good example. All of this happened during their rebuild:
* Kept Kreider
* Kept Zibanejad
* Traded for Trouba (similar situation to Dubois)
* Signed Panarin
* Signed Trouba
* Strong Prospect pool (Shesterkin, Chytil, Kakko, Lafreniere, Miller, Schneider)

If some fans want a Tampa situation, you might as well go scorched earth like the Blackhawks and trade Suzuki and Caufield, and Dach too! Tank for lottery wins over and over until you win one like the Oilers did but you might end up the Sabres

 

[Belial]

I wish salaries were not divulged like they used to. We'd be talking more about the players than the salaries, as if some are paying out of their own pocket...

If there would be no salary cap no one would care how much money Molson is throwing at them.

We have no choice but to talk about salaries because the budget is limited.

 

[Guy Larose]

If there would be no salary cap no one would care how much money Molson is throwing at them.

We have no choice but to talk about salaries because the budget is limited.

Still wish the salaries were not divulged.

 

[SnapVirus]

Good stuff. We see it close to the same.

Some who are saying no to Dubois are likely the same ones who thought Danault was just a 3C who should be paid $3.5M and also thought Gallagher made him look better.

Some also think all our futures will be hits. Love our prospect pool and development tracks but lets face it, they all won't reach their ceiling. Adding Dubois is a unique opportunity and I do think Gorton/Hughes will trade for him this summer. What will be the cost? Not sure. If we don't trade for him, the cost may be too high and they wait. I'm open to either option so yeah, I keep saying it... it's not a black/white situation and we don't have all the information.

Rangers are a good example. All of this happened during their rebuild:
* Kept Kreider
* Kept Zibanejad
* Traded for Trouba (similar situation to Dubois)
* Signed Panarin
* Signed Trouba
* Strong Prospect pool (Shesterkin, Chytil, Kakko, Lafreniere, Miller, Schneider)

If some fans want a Tampa situation, you might as well go scorched earth like the Blackhawks and trade Suzuki and Caufield, and Dach too! Tank for lottery wins over and over until you win one like the Oilers did but you might end up the Sabres

Not true at all.

I dont want to trade for dubois, for multiple reasons, but i definitely want him as a UFA. Even if it means paying 1 or 1.5M$ more on the caphit.

Why?

Because

Dubois + (Flo1 + Mailloux/Farrell + Player we give for cap purpose + a better draft pick in 2024 (cause our team will be slighlty worst without him))

Is worth much more and will help us much more than a team

With Dubois but without: (Flo1 - Mailloux/Farrell - Player we give for cap purpose - a worst draft pick in 2024 (cause our team will be slighlty better with him)

 

[Habs Halifax]

Not true at all.

I dont want to trade for dubois, for multiple reasons, but i definitely want him as a UFA. Even if it means paying 1 or 1.5M$ more on the caphit.

Why?

Because

Dubois + (Flo1 + Mailloux/Farrell + Player we give for cap purpose + a better draft pick in 2024 (cause our team will be slighlty worst without him))

Is worth much more and will help us much more than a team

With Dubois but without: (Flo1 - Mailloux/Farrell - Player we give for cap purpose - a worst draft pick in 2024 (cause our team will be slighlty better with him)

1) Saying you rather sign him as a UFA even if it cost $1M-$2M more is fair. I can respect that. Personally, I rather the lower cap hit advantage but I totally respect your approach and providing the context of a potentially higher cap hit. Most other fans are not even mentioning that. The other thing I do see is it keeps us down a bit more next season without Dubois but that makes me wonder cause if we didn't have all the injuries this year, we would be looking at 8-12 pick or worse. And our youth stands to improve as we head to next season as well.

2) I would not trade Farrell, Hutson, Roy and to some degree, Mailloux and Barron as well. I do wonder if they demand Mailloux though. That one makes me think but if they demand it, I take the Panthers pick off the table and Dvorak is a must include in the package. Or Armia so we get a cap advantage

3) Panthers 1st, Beck, and possibly one of Armia, Dvorak, Hoffman, Eddy is a deal I would do.

* Beck will not be a top 2C and after adding Dubois, our center depth is very solid. We would also add to it with one of Bedard, Fantilli, or Smith (no lottery win). Smith would be an upgrade on Beck in the 3C spot. Our top 9 would be shaping up very well and rolling 3 lines like that with a good 4th is hard to contain. I don't like top 6 rebuilding strategy.

* Panthers 1st is an unknown. Could be a Guhle or Caufield but also could be a Beaulieu. I don't like trading futures but with Dubois, he is a sure shot top 2C hit very close to Suzuki's age and his physical side pairs up with Suzuki well for a two line attack.

* NHL contract is TBD. Ideally, you send Dvorak and sign Monahan to a low AAV with performance base factored in where it maxes out at Dvorak's cap hit.

 

[Guy Larose]

Repeat after me....we will not use all the assets we currently have, so you need to leverage that in trades.

 

[Benstheman]

Rasmus Andersson probably cost a Guhle to acquire.

i'm not saying this season or the other. The plan would be to try to acquire him the summer before his last contract season, in two years, so we can trade for him and immediately extend him. At that time, Guhle will be 23-24 yo and the anchor of this defense. If Calgary trade Andersson in two years, it's because they will start a rebuild. The package will mostly be futures (picks and prospects).

 

[Benstheman]

Andersson is a great fit, but I don't see him coming here cheap. Maybe not ideal for team control with his contract too. Might have to go younger or UFA if we want to depend on someone for 5+ years.

I've been thinking a lot about potential fits at RD and the more I look at our prospect pool, the greater potential I see for us to not have to make a move. I think we've gravely underestimated the development of some of our young players.

Yeah, i agree the time is not ideal now. And i think i wasn't clear enough in my own post. The idea would be to sign him in two years, so we can trade for him and extend him immediately. Would be the perfect timing as we will start being competitive again and we would know better of what we have in Barron and Mailloux.

What Andersson brings, we don't have that in our prospect pool. Barron and Mailloux should be pretty good offensively but we will need that rock to support them defensively. And while Andersson is pretty solid defensively, he is no slouch either offensively. I love his profil.

There is zero chance the Flames trade him. He's their most valuable player. I do agree we need a top 4 dman though, I'd look into Boqvist.

In two years, he probably will if Calgary starts rebuilding.

About Boqvist, is he projecting to be a solid 2-way or just an offense minded Dman?

 

[Habs Icing]

Rasmus Andersson probably cost a Guhle to acquire.

Reading this trade thread I came to the conclusion that it probably sounds a lot like what was said in a slave market in the 18th century.

 

[Scriptor]

Pezz has grown on me.

He's proven he's willing to go out there and literally do anything he can for the team. The man dropped the gloves against Ryan Reaves of all people. He was on a 0-20 stretch there for wins, but he's shown up time and again when others didn't... You cant teach that, and it does a lot for the morale of a team. He's usually not a liability out there, and I enjoy when he steamrolls guys with his big hits, like when he ran over Corey Perry tonight.

Ideally, I'd like to see another big man on the fourth line with him that could help him with some of the heavy lifting, but Pezz is alright. Maybe bring in a guy like Nick Bjugstad in the off season to have a bigger/heavier fourth line, or someone like Matthieu Olivier, who could also take some of the load off of Xhekaj in the fighting department.

A fourth line of Pezz - Bjugstad - Olivier would be entertaining if nothing else.

I'm not particularly impressed by Pezzetta being willing to take a beating on any given night. He's not a particularly gifted pugilist and doesn't remotely instil fear in the opponent.

He hits, but isn't particularly punishing a checker.

Bland Pizza.

Any team that wins the cup will get solid contributions from guys throughout their lineup... and winning helps shine a light on all of them.

But I think the point is that a guy like Maroon is infinitely replaceable, and the bolts likely win without him (replaced by any number of depth nhlers)... Whereas the Kucherov & Herman's are key drivers of the success and far harder to replace.

Winning requires a lot of things, but the elite talent pieces are much harder to get right than the depth role players.

This is exactly what MB got terribly wrong in his attempt to manage a roster.

Marroon was a more effective player earlier in his career before he won a cup (productivity & ice time). it's a credit to his adaptability that he found ways to extend his career & impact as his performance declined & his good fortune that he found himself on cup winning teams...

Everything is important. Of course, 4th liners are not the priority. At least, not until we have reached the point where it is just fine tuning to get that extra oomph.

Molson's Grandmother could be a 4th liner on the Habs' roster right now, but, when we challenge for the Cup, we should look to upgrade that spot on the roster...

 

[Scriptor]

The point I’m getting at is he can grow. He can get stronger on his skates and wiser as he ages, he’s got serious underrated offence for a bottom 6 guy. He’s not done growing and I think he’s a great 13th forward on a contender.

Don't see it. I think we will be able to do better.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Repeat after me....we will not use all the assets we currently have, so you need to leverage that in trades.

Yes. When they know what they have with the assets they are accumulating. Or they decide a prospect is not going to be a top 6 forward or top 4 d and other teams are willing to offer top 4, top 6 value for them.