HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #84: Off-Season edition

[River Meadow]

Dont trade for PLD.

He’ll cost you two or three good assets, PLUS our team will be better next year. So we will have a worst draft again, so we miss a chance to draft another young piece.

Get him as a UFA. 1 or 1.5M$ more per year on a the caphit is better than give a first rounder + farell/roy/mailloux + scrapping our 2025 first rounder odds.

And if Dubois dont want to sign here. Good riddance. Theres a lot of other 60pts center that we could trade good assets for.

If his name was Andreas Johnston. No one would be talking about him.

Its like everyone hates on Drouin for his passitivity. But they all forget PLD had muchhhh worst attitude problems in CLB. What will happens if something dont go his way, with a 8.5M$/8years contract + the assets you gave for him? Chaos.

All great points...

You forgot one thing though....

Petit-Gars-De-Chez-Nous - Thus, he is worth all that and a bag of chips.

 

[SlafySZN]

"But now you try to ridicule people for saying they wouldn't want to trade for him and would prefer for the habs to wait if he gets to the UFA market"

Hurt your back any moving the goal posts of your argument? Didn't you say you don't want him as an UFA either?

He was quoting someone who would prefer the habs to wait if Dubois hits the UFA market.

You seems kinda mad i don’t have the same opinion as you about the Dubois saga.

 

[Scriptor]

Dont trade for PLD.

He’ll cost you two or three good assets, PLUS our team will be better next year. So we will have a worst draft again, so we miss a chance to draft another young piece.

Get him as a UFA. 1 or 1.5M$ more per year on a the caphit is better than give a first rounder + farell/roy/mailloux + scrapping our 2025 first rounder odds.

And if Dubois dont want to sign here. Good riddance. Theres a lot of other 60pts center that we could trade good assets for.

If his name was Andreas Johnston. No one would be talking about him.

Its like everyone hates on Drouin for his passitivity. But they all forget PLD had muchhhh worst attitude problems in CLB. What will happens if something dont go his way, with a 8.5M$/8years contract + the assets you gave for him? Chaos.

BS!

Attitude in CLB? If I had Tortomotorolla humiliating me like he did Dubois in front of everyone, I wouldn't be looking to stick around and would have asked to be traded as well.

This was not a Dubois problem. It was a head coach problem.

 

[Scriptor]

PLD could very well be our Tavares signing. It's the contract and the cap structure post-PLD signing that worries me. No need to rush a rebuild.

I don't get how adding Dubois is rushing a rebuild. It's no different than drafting a player that has an immediate impact with the FLA pick. If that happened, everyone would go batshit, but, if we get Dubpois with that pick, it's rushing the rebuild?

WTF!?

Som players drafted will have an impact quickly, some will take longer and some will be late bloomers, plus some will never amount to anything (most).

You have a guaranteed lottery pick win with Dubois who, IMO, is a 3rd OA pick that meets expectations of a 3rd OA pick.

You shouldn't pass up opportunities like that. if you're not trading a top-10 pick and a bluechip prospect for Dubois.

It's just one step along the rebuild and a good one at that.

Montreal will still be drafting, developing and improving the roster gradually.

This year was Dach, 22 (with a 13th OA pick). Next year could be Dubois, 25 (with a mid first round pick between 16th OA and 25th OA and a B+ prospective Habs can comfortably part with without reducing their death at the position the player plays) and, the following year, it could be some other talented youngster (between 20 and 25) with another extra first round pick accumulated somewhere along the way? Rinse and repeat for 2025 with the CAL pick.

Add to that, Slafkovsky, Mesar and Hutson picked in 2022 (assuming Beck went WIN's way for Dubois), a top-7 pick or better in 2023 with MON's own draft pick and an early 2nd rounder as well, a likely top-10 pick in 2024 with MON's own draft pick, whether Dubois is in Montreal or not at the start of the year and, probably, a mid-first round pick with MON's own pick in 2025.

How does this not resemble rebuilding the proper way; with a consistent influx of new talent as these and prior prospects keep maturing?

The thing I see from operating this way is that we add proven talent, or viable projects, every year and still use high draft picks to obtain more talented prospects

The skilled, young, proven talent shores up the roster and supports the talented prospects as they join the team. All these players are within a relative proximity in age and grow together into an eventual contender.

The only thing I don't see is repeatedly tanking and selecting top-3 picks which, the more I read, the more I think is the real hang up with the idea of trading for Dubois. The tanking crowd, with zero imagination, can't get around building (rebuilding) a team as an actual proactive exercise where the GM needs to show some hockey knowledge and make some decisions to improve the team.

Hughes not stupid enough to make trades like one for Dubois, within reason in terms of cost?

How about Hughes being smart enough to make that kind of trade, like he was smart enough to use a strength in Romanov (LD) to get the asset (13th OA pick) with which he could obtain Dach in return?

The biggest objectors to acquiring Dubois never clearly present their vision of rebuilding, most likely because they don't have a clue what to do.

 

[ReHabs]

You seem to forget about the cap. The money spent on Dubois will still be available if he doesn't sign. Timing and assets are way more important. You seem to think out of necessity, "no players want to sign", but to make better decisions, you need an adondance mentality. Since you like the word magic, you talk about "magic beans", do you think Dubois is a wish from Aladin's magic lamp as well? You don't seem to understand the whole picture, it's reminescent of realpolitik in the sense power isn't the only factor.

I’ll break down my perspective and you tell me where you disagree

1. The Habs do not have first pick at premium FAs. Many times in the last decade the very best FAs have publicly not considered the Habs as a viable destination — notably Stamkos and Tavares, but the Habs have certainly failed to entice many other premium FAs as well.

2. PLD is considered a premium FA

3. It is assumed that, unlike other premium FAs who would not even pick up the phone, PLD would consider joining the Habs

4. When the premium FAs did not join, the Habs had to shift cap-spending priorities elsewhere. For some years of the last years of Weber’s and Price’s prime the Habs spent nowhere close to the max cap for instance. Other times they picked up cap dumps like Jake Allen and Joel Armia instead of spending that cap on premium players… for lack of viable options.

5. Therefore it is not a given that there is a viable second option toward PLD’s cap commitment that has the pts-TOI-caphit profile as PLD. What I mean to say is that it is less likely there is a single other premium player who can be a viable alternative to PLD — viable, as in we can actually imagine him joining us.

The above argument, simply put, says that PLD should be considered a viable target much like how when Tavares was entering his UFA season many Habs fans were day-dreaming about signing him.

If you accept that PLD is a viable acquisition target, then the only two arguments left are: (a) with his prospective contract terms, is he a good acquisition for the Habs? and (b) what is the cost threshold for acquiring him through a trade this summer

(a) is a simple argument: it’s almost a matter of taste — do you figure he’s worth the cap hit and term he’s going to get?

(b) is another simple argument: what’s the most you would trade to WPG in order to acquire him this coming summer?

If WPG would trade him for a 3rd Round Pick, there wouldn’t be any complaints about waiting until summer 2024 would there?

So, if you think he’s worth the likely 8m cap hit for 7 or 8 years, what’s the most you’d trade in summer 2023 to acquire PLD? That’s the discussion.

I’d be less sarcastic if it wasn’t so bitterly ironic — we had one of the worst managers in the NHL for the last ten years and his motto was “I won’t mortgage the future” while all he did was squander the present and not build for the future.

At some point this fanbase has to look at the evidence and accept that magic beans and empty cap space are worth a lot less than premium NHL players. Cap space and draft picks don’t win NHL games, players do. And premium players help win playoff series!

’d easily trade magic beans and a chunk of cap space for a player of PLDs profile, wouldn’t you?

 

[Scriptor]

All great points...

You forgot one thing though....

Petit-Gars-De-Chez-Nous - Thus, he is worth all that and a bag of chips.

Disagree. I'm not an advocate of acquiring Dubois because he is from Quebec. I feel his skills alone make the exercise worthwhile. as a bonus, he wants to play for the Habs, and that's important, regardless of where the player stems from.

Anderson has some extra value in Montreal because he wants to stay here through the rebuild and be part of the solution going forward.

Savard has added value, not because he is a Qubecer, but because he is a veteran that wants to be part of the rebuild and help the younger Ds develop. That's precious because it will do the opposite of souring the mood surrounding this team.

Allen has added value because he kips he won't win a Cup with the Habs, but wants to stay as long as he can to help the transition towards becoming a contender.

 

[ReHabs]

PLD could very well be our Tavares signing. It's the contract and the cap structure post-PLD signing that worries me. No need to rush a rebuild.

There is nothing wrong with a Tavares signing and in fact this city was desperate to acquire Tavares when he was going toward UFA. A premium PPG+ player is worth a lot more than “cap structure” when this organization has so few skill players in its system remotely worthy of so much cap caution.

Name one player we have right now who’ll ever get a double digit caphit. I can’t think of a single skater player or prospect who has a greater than 20% chance of eclipsing Subban (skater with the highest cap hit in Habs history).

 

[Scriptor]

He was quoting someone who would prefer the habs to wait if Dubois hits the UFA market.

You seems kinda mad i don’t have the same opinion as you about the Dubois saga.

Not at all. I'm just trying to understand your position because it's vague as hell to me as of right now. Lots of generalizations about taking time and doing it right.

What's your rebuild strategy and how is it better than adding players like Dach and Dubois, plus still drafting with our best picks at the same time?

IMO, Dach was the first move that ultimately used an extra first round pick as an asset to acquire a young player that could grow to be part of our young core.

Dubois would be another move like that with the FLA pick, another extra first round pick. Only, we know that Dubois immediately fits into our young core.

Next year could be another such move with an extra 1st round pick still to be acquired.

Each year, we're still sticking with rebuilding through the draft as we use the picks likeliest to provide us with impact players (our own) in order to draft talented prospects and develop them.

The rebuild actually started a long time ago with a failed pick at #3 in KotkaMiami, circa 2018.

2018: Kotkaniemi (3rd OA), Ylonen, 35th OA, Romanov, 38th OA (became Dach), Harris, 71st OA

2019: Caufield (5th OA), Struble, 46th OA, Harvey-Pinard, 201st OA

2020: Guhle (16th OA), Farrell, 123rd OA, Dobes, 135th OA,

2021: Mailloux (31st OA, but ranked mid first round, around 15th, before the scandal broke out), Kidney, 63rd OA, Trudeau, 113th OA, Roy, 150th OA,

2022: Slafkovsky, 1st OA, Mesar, 26th OA, Beck, 33rd OA, Hutson, 62nd OA, Engström, 92nd OA

2023: MON first round pick (top-7?), FLA first round pick (mid first round), MON 2nd round pick (top-39?)

There's a lot of quality prospects that were already drafted since 2018 and who are currently maturing as they become near NHL-ready. More quality prospects will get drafted this year and the following year with early draft picks. 2025 should start bringing in later draft picks (17-22)...

Adding, via the trade route, NHL youngsters who have the potential to become impact players, or are already impact players to the pool of drafted players with the potential to become impact players only increases the odds of all these impact players producing together within a large enough windows rather than just getting tail ends of such productions if we had just added players through the draft.

Dach is part of that approach, as was Barron, as will be Heineman, as could be Dubois.

Why is it such a big deal with Dubois?

 

[ReHabs]

Why is it such a big deal with Dubois?

Because many hockey fans have sublimated Bergevin's motto about 'mortgaging the future' despite it being categorically false and senseless. It's a meaningless statement on its face (you mortgage your present asset, not a future one) but it is especially meaningless when it comes to a competitive sport that has a salary cap and draft system.

It isn't like the Habs are selling bonds to fund their sporting activities or taking on risky loans to fund their transfer activities -- the so-called futures Habs fans are terrified of parting with are replenished every single year. The only difference here is determining if the present roster is worth investing in against these future assets.

All of the above doesn't even take into account how the acquisition of good players can elevate other assets on hand and raise their values immensely.

 

[domiwroze]

Y'all still debating about Dubois?

It's been 2months of the same arguments just twisted in a different way.

How about this instead;

What should we do about the Goaltending problem? What should we do about Dvorak , keep him as 3rd C or trade him.

 

[Twisted Sinister]

Because many hockey fans have sublimated Bergevin's motto about 'mortgaging the future' despite it being categorically false and senseless. It's a meaningless statement on its face (you mortgage your present asset, not a future one) but it is especially meaningless when it comes to a competitive sport that has a salary cap and draft system.

It isn't like the Habs are selling bonds to fund their sporting activities or taking on risky loans to fund their transfer activities -- the so-called futures Habs fans are terrified of parting with are replenished every single year. The only difference here is determining if the present roster is worth investing in against these future assets.

All of the above doesn't even take into account how the acquisition of good players can elevate other assets on hand and raise their values immensely.

Thing is, I don't know that Dubois is that great, though.

He's putting up respectable numbers in a contract year, but what I've seen from him up until now has been... Not completely convincing. I'd say he's far from a sure thing.

Brisson is also his agent, so if you're expecting a hometown discount, you have another thing coming.

Winnipeg is going to try and nail us on the trade and Brisson will likely try and nail us on the contract.

1st plus Harris Plus Dvorak is the most I'd do for a trade. 7-8M is the most I'd probably do for the contract given his numbers up till now.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Thing is, I don't know that Dubois is that great, though.

He's putting up respectable numbers in a contract year, but what I've seen from him up until now has been... Not completely convincing. I'd say he's far from a sure thing.

Brisson is also his agent, so if you're expecting a hometown discount, you have another thing coming.

Winnipeg is going to try and nail us on the trade and Brisson will likely try and nail us on the contract.

1st plus Harris Plus Dvorak is the most I'd do for a trade. 7-8M is the most I'd probably do for the contract given his numbers up till now.

Making sure you are not "nailed" on a trade is a normal objective.

And in fact, I am around where you are on the trade offer and the contract.

Trade offer:

One of Florida 2023 first OR Calgary 2025 first (top 10 protected with Montreal 2025 pick)​

One of Harris or Evans or RHP or Ylonen​

Any one or more of Dvorak, Armia, Hoffman and/or Edmundson - (no retention)​

One additional prospect not named Hutson, Roy, Kidney, Heineman, Farrell, Mailloux, Engstrom, Dobes​

​

Contract, no more than Suzuki

 

[waitin425]

PLD at his closest comparables...Horvat and Larkin is what we should be expecting. Anything less would be a hometown discount. If we somehow get him it is ~8.5m id be happy.

And I agree with the crowd stating that this DOES FIT with our rebuild. He is a young piece still.

Forwards:
Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
Slafkovsky
Dubois
2023 1st

Defence
Guhle
Hutson
Barron
Xhekaj
Mailloux
Harris

All are young players to build around and a pretty damn solid core.

What we need to propel us into the future is two of those assets to become elite. Like top 10 at their position elite.

Could it be Caufield or that 2023 1st? Do we get lucky with that pick and land Bedard? Does Caufield have another gear? No one else will ever be top 10 players, but they are all very nice to haves on a Stanley Cup lineup.

Could our Unicorm Hutson mirror or eclipse greats such as Leetch, Fox, Makar who he is equaling in NCAA? Is Guhle the next Weber? These are the two who I could see having exceptional careers on D and maybe one day entering Norris talks.

The above two paragraphs is what everything hinges on. Nothing is a sure thing and it is impossible to do that.

I don't know how we couldn't consider the above list of players a near complete rebuild. That is a damn fine list.

I am happy with our direction.

 

[L4br3cqu3]

Y'all still debating about Dubois?

It's been 2months of the same arguments just twisted in a different way.

How about this instead;

What should we do about the Goaltending problem? What should we do about Dvorak , keep him as 3rd C or trade him.

Amen.

Soon, we'll need quality NHL goaltending, not just 'placeholders', I don't trust Primeau too much, Dobes is the only one I'm kind of hopeful in our pipeline...

Either we get a young up-and-coming goalie, either we draft good ones in the next draft, but yeah, a goalie trade over PLD anytime.

 

[Kiss Under the Guy]

Y'all still debating about Dubois?

It's been 2months of the same arguments just twisted in a different way.

How about this instead;

What should we do about the Goaltending problem? What should we do about Dvorak , keep him as 3rd C or trade him.

Trade Dvorak for PLD, put PLD in net. Voilà!

 

[Habs Halifax]

If he asks for $9+ million, you simply don't sign him as a free agent.

Why do you think trading him for him a year before free agency somehow secures a lower price to sign him? How does that work?

I'm worried about what the cap is for 24/25 and once agents know the exact growth, they will give GM's fits on growing AAV's. They go hand and hand. Right now, I do think you can sign him for 8x $8.5M and add an incentive of 50% of the contract paid as signing bonus.

Of course we rather hoard all our futures but sometimes, the point of hoarding futures is to be able to capitalize on a Dubois circumstance. If the cost is Trouba or Horvat, I do think we engage on a possible trade on draft day. No doubt in my mind the Gorton/Hughes are reviewing potential trade options with the Jets and there has been reports of them talking this season.

 

[DAChampion]

Why do you think trading him for him a year before free agency somehow secures a lower price to sign him? How does that work?

Because players know that if they wait a year they could lose a lot more due to injury.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Y'all still debating about Dubois?

It's been 2months of the same arguments just twisted in a different way.

How about this instead;

What should we do about the Goaltending problem? What should we do about Dvorak , keep him as 3rd C or trade him.

Keep Dvorak until Beck is ready.

Making sure you are not "nailed" on a trade is a normal objective.

And in fact, I am around where you are on the trade offer and the contract.

Trade offer:

One of Florida 2023 first OR Calgary 2025 first (top 10 protected with Montreal 2025 pick)​

One of Harris or Evans or RHP or Ylonen​

Any one or more of Dvorak, Armia, Hoffman and/or Edmundson - (no retention)​

One additional prospect not named Hutson, Roy, Kidney, Heineman, Farrell, Mailloux, Engstrom, Dobes​

​

Contract, no more than Suzuki

I have to agree with this. If Jets and Dubois do not agree with this term then no trade.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don't want Dubois, not even a year later.

And i also understand where you're coming from, but we're just not seeing the rebuild the same way. I think you're thinking about it in a way like we're done rebuilding in a year and they can trade picks or players like Ottawa did for immediate help (debrincat, giroux, chychrun). I think we're not there, at all.

Adding Dubois is not for immediate help. It's a long term piece and he's less than 1 year old than Suzuki. Using Debrincat, Giroux, and Chychrun are bad examples.

* Debrincat did not come with extension and he has the leverage with his min salary arbitration. It also cost them the 7th pick and we are not trading that kind of value for Dubois

* Giroux is 35, Dubois is 24. Enough said.

* Chychrun comes with 3 years in team control. Nice value contract but then what? Needs a new contract when the cap is much higher. I can see them in cap trouble at that point.

The error is you think Dubois moves us into the playoffs and we start to become obsessive buyers. NO! He's a long term building block and with or with out Dubois, we are looking at a pick from 10-15 range next season.

If you don't want Dubois and want to tank for 3+ more years, you might as well trade Suzuki cause they are similar in age.

 

[WeThreeKings]

 

[Habs Halifax]

Because players know that if they wait a year they could lose a lot more due to injury.

Yes, Dubois is taking a risk at signing the one RFA year cause he can get injured. If he finds out we are not willing to trade for him this summer, he might consider other options and a team like the Avs are looking for a center. No doubt he wants to play for the Habs but he's not going to pin himself only to the Habs entirely.

Having said this, I really do think Brisson is in touch with both the Jets GM and Gorton/Hughes so they have more information than we do.

Imagine passing on Dubois where he signs somewhere else and pieces like Beck and Panthers 1st ends up meh (Poehling and Beaulieu types). It's possible. Automatically saying no to Dubois when he is less than one year older than Suzuki is weird to me. It's like some fans think all our futures will be hits.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Making sure you are not "nailed" on a trade is a normal objective.

And in fact, I am around where you are on the trade offer and the contract.

Trade offer:

One of Florida 2023 first OR Calgary 2025 first (top 10 protected with Montreal 2025 pick)​

One of Harris or Evans or RHP or Ylonen​

Any one or more of Dvorak, Armia, Hoffman and/or Edmundson - (no retention)​

One additional prospect not named Hutson, Roy, Kidney, Heineman, Farrell, Mailloux, Engstrom, Dobes​

​

Contract, no more than Suzuki

You're close to me. And I'm pretty sure Gorton/Hughes are taking the same approach.

My favorite is Panthers 1st and Beck. I'm willing to do this without any NHL contract going the other way. If they want Mailloux and are willing to die on that hill, I might engage but then the Panthers 1st is off the table. My offer then becomes Mailloux, Dvorak, and a B prospect (Kapanen type). Then I sign Monahan to a low AAV with performance base contract.

 

[ReHabs]

Thing is, I don't know that Dubois is that great, though.

He's putting up respectable numbers in a contract year, but what I've seen from him up until now has been... Not completely convincing. I'd say he's far from a sure thing.

Brisson is also his agent, so if you're expecting a hometown discount, you have another thing coming.

Winnipeg is going to try and nail us on the trade and Brisson will likely try and nail us on the contract.

1st plus Harris Plus Dvorak is the most I'd do for a trade. 7-8M is the most I'd probably do for the contract given his numbers up till now.

He’s not “that great” but he’d still be our best forward. Goes to show, doesn’t it?

Of course we shouldn’t break the bank for him and I don’t think anybody would propose to do so… but there are some commentators who think trading a lower half first round pick for him is an outrageous price. And that’s not just irrational but it’s a harmful mentality to hold when we’re one of the worst drafting/developing teams in the league and lower first round picks are more or less a crap shoot anyway.

He’s a year older than Suzuki for heaven’s sake.

 

[FerrisRox]

I'm worried about what the cap is for 24/25 and once agents know the exact growth, they will give GM's fits on growing AAV's. They go hand and hand.

If that's the case, why would Dubois agent let him sign an extension earlier? Why wouldn't he advise his client that he should wait until there's a much clearer idea of what the cap will be because it could be much more lucrative?

 

[DAChampion]

If that's the case, why would Dubois agent let him sign an extension earlier?

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

You'll notice that very few players wait until July 1st. It's too much risk.