Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumours (Mod warning OP)

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Hunter368

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I included those as examples because they are the only examples of an established number 1C being traded that I can think of. I wasn't trying to Cherry pick examples. Those are literally the only impact C's that have moved teams in a trade that i can think of right now.

Perhaps the reason why those trades seem like outliers is due to the fact that it is very rare for an elite center to be traded and they only seem to be moved if their are issues forcing the team to move them.

But I will do some digging and try to see if I can come up with more examples of number 1C trades to see if those valuations are atypical or near the mark.

I'm not advocating any trade, but the only one I can think of involving us without gutting out team is Mark & Laine for Eichel & Reinhart........I'm not advocating this trade but at least it's in the ballpark value & fit for both teams IMO.
 
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surixon

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I'm not advocating any trade, but the only one I can think of involving us without gutting out team is Mark & Laine for Eichel & Reinhart........I'm not advocating this trade but at least it's in the ballpark value & fit for both teams IMO.

Well I just included the Carter and Richard's deals and they are in line with the other packages posted. It looks like you are getting a solid established young player with some upside, a top prospect or first round pick and some other picks to balance things out.

I get that you are trying to try to be fair but teams juat don't make trades where they move multiple foundation pieces in the same package.
 

Joe Hallenback

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Boston made some interesting deals with Joe T and Sequin. But they might end up being right about both of them. Neither of them will ever win anything. Sequin has a habit of no showing in the playoffs, you might be able to say the same about Joe T.

Duchene is the poster boy for promise. 2 massive trades for futures for a guy that is kind of meh in my mind. Its likely the deal Colorado made getting rid of them lays the foundation for a cup win for them.

I sometimes think that those trades made those teams better off the ice even though the "stats" those kind of guys put up makes the deals look bad.
 

Hunter368

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Well I just included the Carter and Richard's deals and they are in line with the other packages posted. It looks like you are getting a solid established young player with some upside, a top prospect or first round pick and some other picks to balance things out.

I get that you are trying to try to be fair but teams juat don't make trades where they move multiple foundation pieces in the same package.

Teams also don't trade young top 10 franchise centres signed long term for a bad defensive winger who is one year away from arb rights.

Laine has good value, but he doesn't hold Eichel value. Plus both players have some reason to believe they might want out......and only ones agent has said publically a trade might be best and it wasn't Eichel. So if we want to play this game of Eichel wants out.....well why wouldn't Sabre fans say we'll steal Laine for a discount of Reinhart + 2nd Rd pick? I mean Laine agent already stated publically a trade might be best.

You see what I'm saying? I'm just saying lets be less homers thinking we can steal Eichel at a discount while also claim Laine doubles his trade value in a few months training and pretend Laines camp didn't suggest a trade is possibly the best outcome.
 

surixon

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Teams also don't trade young top 10 franchise centres signed long term for a bad defensive winger who is one year away from arb rights.

Laine has good value, but he doesn't hold Eichel value. Plus both players have some reason to believe they might want out......and only ones agent has said publically a trade might be best and it wasn't Eichel. So if we want to play this game of Eichel wants out.....well why wouldn't Sabre fans say we'll steal Laine for a discount of Reinhart + 2nd Rd pick? I mean Laine agent already stated publically a trade might be best.

You see what I'm saying? I'm just saying lets be less homers thinking we can steal Eichel at a discount while also claim Laine doubles his trade value in a few months training and pretend Laines camp didn't suggest a trade is possibly the best outcome.

I'm not suggesting Laine alone would get it done. There would have to be a decent future add but you aren't Laine's biggest fan and imo I think that leads to you undervalueing him and fair enough. Suffice to say players like Echelon, Seguin, Carter, Richards, O'Reilly don't get moved unless there is some sort of falling out so if Echel is moved its only because he has forced his way out. Maybe that is true for Laine as well and his value will be adjusted accordingly.

To be quite honest I really am not keen on sending Laine plus multiple high end future pieces for a player making over 10 million with a flat cap likely extending a number if years. Scheifele flat out is a non starter for me given the current economic realities of the league.
 

surixon

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Boston made some interesting deals with Joe T and Sequin. But they might end up being right about both of them. Neither of them will ever win anything. Sequin has a habit of no showing in the playoffs, you might be able to say the same about Joe T.

Duchene is the poster boy for promise. 2 massive trades for futures for a guy that is kind of meh in my mind. Its likely the deal Colorado made getting rid of them lays the foundation for a cup win for them.

I sometimes think that those trades made those teams better off the ice even though the "stats" those kind of guys put up makes the deals look bad.

So is Echelon fit that club, no playoff success and is vocal on the press off the ice ;p

I mean Carter and Richardsed the Flyers to the cup finals in 2010 and then were dealt a year later. Yeah I heard there might have been some off ice partying or something but they got moved to LA that year and won a couple of cups with them. I think its hard to say what a young center will do in another situation.

For all the guff he gets Thornton has lead his team to a finals appearance and his total post season numbers aren't that horrible.

Edit: Seguin has also already won a cup, albeit as a 18 year old rookie playing a depth role.
 

Hunter368

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I'm not suggesting Laine alone would get it done. There would have to be a decent future add but you aren't Laine's biggest fan and imo I think that leads to you undervalueing him and fair enough. Suffice to say players like Echelon, Seguin, Carter, Richards, O'Reilly don't get moved unless there is some sort of falling out so if Echel is moved its only because he has forced his way out. Maybe that is true for Laine as well and his value will be adjusted accordingly.

To be quite honest I really am not keen on sending Laine plus multiple high end future pieces for a player making over 10 million with a flat cap likely extending a number if years. Scheifele flat out is a non starter for me given the current economic realities of the league.

I'm not a "fan" of any player, Im a fan of the team and I judge players by real results...........I do the same for them all. I'll trade anyone to improve the team, Laine or Mark or anyone........I don't personally real care about the players like some here do I only care about the team. I wouldn't trade Mark either at this point, I said the same thing........not bc I'm a fan of Marks, just he holds too good value as a 1C, we have no replacement and his contract is crazy good.
 

surixon

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seguin at the time of the trade wasn't close to eichel now

Not so sure I agree. Same draft pedigree and Tyler put up pretty darn good point totals considering he was playing as Boston's 2C behind Bergeron whereas Echel has been playing number 1 center minutes his entire career. Once moved to Dallas he jumped to 84 points in 80 games on his D plus 4 year which isn't far back from what Echel posted this past year. Also his 5.5 million contract would have held more value then Echel's 10.5 million deal.
 

surixon

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I'm not a "fan" of any player, Im a fan of the team and I judge players by real results...........I do the same for them all. I'll trade anyone to improve the team, Laine or Mark or anyone........I don't personally real care about the players like some here do I only care about the team. I wouldn't trade Mark either at this point, I said the same thing........not bc I'm a fan of Marks, just he holds too good value as a 1C, we have no replacement and his contract is crazy good.

I care more for the team as well and would trade any player if it improved the results. As you mentioned mark should be off the table due to a combination of positional significance, contract and on ice performance especially in the playoffs.

I am fine with moving Laine e if we can get a number RD like Eckblad. As his performance and contract fits the team much better then Echel's would.
 

DRW204

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Not so sure I agree. Same draft pedigree and Tyler put up pretty darn good point totals considering he was playing as Boston's 2C behind Bergeron whereas Echel has been playing number 1 center minutes his entire career. Once moved to Dallas he jumped to 84 points in 80 games on his D plus 4 year which isn't far back from what Echel posted this past year. Also his 5.5 million contract would have held more value then Echel's 10.5 million deal.
.59 ppg vs .95 ppg. yes he had potential, but Eichel is far ahead at the time of the trade. Laine for Eichel is extremely lop-sided in our favor, especially considering Laine will try getting close to Eichel's $ next season.
 
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surixon

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.59 ppg vs .95 ppg. yes he had potential, but Eichel is far ahead at the time of the trade. Laine for Eichel is extremely lop-sided in our favor, especially considering Laine will try getting close to Eichel's $ next season.

Well he ain't getting that type of cash now given COVID.

It's likely Laine @ $8 million vs. Echel at 10 and don't think anyone was proposing one for one. Most other top centers have been quantity for quality.
 

DRW204

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Well he ain't getting that type of cash now given COVID.

It's likely Laine @ $8 million vs. Echel at 10 and don't think anyone was proposing one for one. Most other top centers have been quantity for quality.

and most other top Cs when they were traded had C depth to stomach that trade.... Boston had Bergeron-Krejci, Colorado had Mackinnon (and eventually added kadri), Buffalo had Eichel and Reinhart (still in potential but obviously that didn't amount to actuality)

Buffalo currently has Eichel, 36 year old Staal and not much else for top 6 C talent. So removing Eichel and adding Laine (while they have strong talent currently on Wing) doesn't really help them.

if laine would sign for 8M, think we would have already had that locked up.
 

surixon

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and most other top Cs when they were traded had C depth to stomach that trade.... Boston had Bergeron-Krejci, Colorado had Mackinnon (and eventually added kadri), Buffalo had Eichel and Reinhart (still in potential but obviously that didn't amount to actuality)

Buffalo currently has Eichel, 36 year old Staal and not much else for top 6 C talent. So removing Eichel and adding Laine (while they have strong talent currently on Wing) doesn't really help them.

if laine would sign for 8M, think we would have already had that locked up.

Well who even knows if the Jets would entertain that amount any longer given the new economic realities. It will be fascinating watching the fall out contract wise over the next few seasons.

Clearly depth is a factor as mentioned Buffalo doesn't move him barring him becoming g toxic behind the scenes for them.
 

Hunter368

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I care more for the team as well and would trade any player if it improved the results. As you mentioned mark should be off the table due to a combination of positional significance, contract and on ice performance especially in the playoffs.

I am fine with moving Laine e if we can get a number RD like Eckblad. As his performance and contract fits the team much better then Echel's would.

I won't say Eck is out of reach for a Laine trade.......but I doubt it b/c again it's a poor fit for them.
 

Joe Hallenback

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So is Echelon fit that club, no playoff success and is vocal on the press off the ice ;p

I mean Carter and Richardsed the Flyers to the cup finals in 2010 and then were dealt a year later. Yeah I heard there might have been some off ice partying or something but they got moved to LA that year and won a couple of cups with them. I think its hard to say what a young center will do in another situation.

For all the guff he gets Thornton has lead his team to a finals appearance and his total post season numbers aren't that horrible.

Edit: Seguin has also already won a cup, albeit as a 18 year old rookie playing a depth role.

I think the Carter/Richards deal probably worked out for both teams. Richards wasn't the same player he was when he went to LA but he did give them depth. Philly got a ton out of those trades Voracek,Simmonds,Schenn and a 1st that turned into Couturier.

I mean if we could get a youngish top 4 D and a youngish top 9 forward plus draft equity for Laine. That isn't horrible. Oh it would be horrible for some fans especially if Laine goes off and scores 50+ for a few years. But what is acceptable for us an outcome? Does it have to be a Cup? or is a consistent top team good enough? I mean a cup would be outstanding but I would take a 5+ years at the top too
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Jack = Laine value, common now no ne is saying that how can we have a serious conversation when you post silly stuff like that. I posted real stats, real point totals. No one here devalued Laine, I literally used his real totals vs Eichel real totals........I'm just not willing to project wild growth for Laine over a few months while saying Eichel doesn't increase his value any......that would be highly bais if I did.

There is some reason to believe both players want out, so let's not look at one demanding out and not acknowledge Laine own agent hasn't publically stated it's likely best a trade happens.

Laine double his trade value? How? Does he suddenly become a top 3 vote getter for best defensive forward in the NHL while producing 45 goals & 80+ points? I mean seriously, players don't double their trade value in a single summer. Plus you want to claim Laine is going to double his trade value and yet want to ignore Laine totals will fall going to a brutal team while we all know Eichel totals would increase on a much better team? How can we even have a serious conversation when you say stuff like that and stack everything in Laine favour.

The list of teams making offers on Eichel would be much longer then list not making offers.

Yes part of the whole Laine, late 1st and Copp is not only its bad value, but it also is a horrible fit for the Sabres. One simply doesn't trade a franchise centre for a complimentary PPG winger. That's why both my offers included some kind of centre replacement in them, Mark or Cole......of course Cole isn't close in value to Mark but that's why I added more to the Cole offer and took out Reinhart.

Plus what will the difference in contracts be between Laine vs Eichel after next season and Laine maybe signs 5-6+ years? Not much I'm guessing and Eichel is much much better.

Sorry anything other Mark & Laine for Eichel & Reinhart.....IMO is wilding bad value & fit for Sabres. PS Im not advocating that trade, just saying Laine, late 1st and Copp is really bad.

Silly stuff like what? I didn't say Jack = Laine. I said a much improved Laine, plus a 1st, + another piece = Jack, if Jack is forcing his way out of Buffalo. You are putting words in my mouth there.

Yes, you used the real totals. Why would you do that, given the criteria that I made very plain to start with? Nothing biased about it at all. It is a hypothetical. The entire question was hypothetical based on a scenario where Laine has his breakout year - which would not be any kind of a surprise. If he is going to do that, this would be the year for it.

I've said several times that the 2 players both want out. So that is a wash. But the question of what would anyone else give for the players under the circumstances still applies. If Buffalo doesn't take our offer who would make a better one? What team would be willing and able to give Sabres a 1C in exchange? Keep the flat cap in mind. We will still be in unusual circumstances next off-season. I could have asked the same question in regards to Laine but it wasn't necessary since you were rejecting the offer I proposed from the Jets.

I didn't say that Laine will have that breakout season. I asked the question based on if he has that season. Doubling his value was a little hyperbole directed at your low evaluation of him now, which you have made plain for some time. You value him lower than I do. Lower than many others do. Toward the bottom part of the range. But the whole thing, once again, is based on a hypothetical.

Laine's totals falling and Eichel's rising is another story. Not altogether unlikely, but Eichel has played with the best linemates Buffalo could give him. Laine has not had the same benefit, most of the time. But market value tends to go by the scoring numbers without fully allowing for context. Look at Skinner's contract, for example. It also tends to be weighted heavily toward the most recent data.

The list of teams wanting Eichel would be 31 long. But how many of those teams could make serious offers, all things considered?

Will our 1st be late? We are better with Laine out and Eichel in, but we still have a weak D corps. I don't think Perfetti does it as a C replacement. They already have prospect C replacements.

I agree that including Scheifele is the most direct way of making a fair offer. Like I said, I would try very hard to find some other way of making up the value. Would adding Heinola help? I don't see him as filling a need for Buffalo. They already have Dahlin on the left side. Probably similar in style and Dahlin is better.

If I had just wanted to ask what would it take, added to Laine, I would have started with Scheifele myself. But that is not the question I was interested in because I don't want to swap 1C's. I want to have 2 of them. Therefore, the question in the hypothetical scenario where Laine has a breakout year first.

If you are not interested in that speculation, you are free to decline to do so. You are also free to say you reject that scenario and state that nothing less than Scheifele would do. But it doesn't work if you just ignore the criteria and plow ahead as though you were answering the question as asked. It just leads to this kind of exchange.
 
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Whileee

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Not one team has sent a player as good as Laine in a package for a number 1C outside of the one for one Jones for Johanson deal.

Go back and look:

Joe Thornton in his mid 20's returned Sturm, Wayne Premieu and Brad Stuart. That is a low end second line player, good second pairing dmen and a bottom 6 forward.

Duchene returned an A defensive prospect and some B forward prospect, a cap dump goalie and a 1st and a 2nd round pick.

Seguin returned Eriksson a B prospect, and a B forward prospect in Smith and a bottom line forward in Fraser

O'Reilly returned a decent forward prospect, a couple of bottom 6 forwards and a 1st and 2nd round pick.

There is no precident for the type of deal your suggesting.

Laine plus a future package is a pretty much the best deal of the above.

To me Scheifele has more trade value the Echel. Similar production but Scheifele makes way less money and that to me more the offsets the difference in upside between the two.
Only Thornton would have been considered close to Eichel in value. But there was a huge difference in terms of contract. Thornton was traded just after he had signed a 3-year deal that ate up more than 17% of Boston's cap space. So he was on a short-term, very high value deal. Eichel is signed for another 6 seasons for a cap hit that is around 12% of the team cap. Eichel carries much more value on that basis.
 

Buffdog

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The big question here is: does eichel want out?

If so, can a team build a package that is better than one centered around laine? In an earlier post I mentionned perfetti as another piece, who can be developed as a C. We'd still be looking at heinola/Samberg and/or 1st
 

surixon

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Only Thornton would have been considered close to Eichel in value. But there was a huge difference in terms of contract. Thornton was traded just after he had signed a 3-year deal that ate up more than 17% of Boston's cap space. So he was on a short-term, very high value deal. Eichel is signed for another 6 seasons for a cap hit that is around 12% of the team cap. Eichel carries much more value on that basis.

I agree with that but a Laine, Roslovic and a first package would be significantly more valuable then what was traded for either Carter/Richards imo.

Let's compare Laine vs Voracheck/Simmonds at the time of the deal.

Voracheck just came off a 49 point year in his draft plus 5 season. Simmonds came off 40 and 30 point years in his draft plus 4 and 5 seasons. So as the young player in the package Laine is significantly more proven then either of them.

Now you add say a Heinola and a first and it trumps either package it took to get Carter/Richards.

Just how much more value would he have then either of those centers at the time they were dealt. I can't say it would be much more then that package.

Edit:

With regards to Seguin vs. Echel I think it is much closer then people think with regards to their first three years:

5 on 5 production:

Seguin 42G and 49A in 203 GP with a 2.12 P/60

Seguin was also a pretty elite play driver as well.

Echel 43G and 65A in 205 GP with a 2.10 P/60

Echel was good but not great in his ability to drive play.

So it looks like they scored pretty darn close to evenly at 5 on 5 and it looks like the difference was really only due to Echel getting about a minute more per game.

The PP is another story where Echel got about a minute and a half more PP ice time per then Seguin. He also produced better on it but I am not sure how much Tyler played on the second unit those years so I am not sure if that would factor into his scoring rates or not.

So no I don't really see a significant gap between those two players through three years outside of maybe the PP. I think Seguin doesn't look as good as he actually was due to playing on a real deep team and with limited PP ice time per game.
 
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tbcwpg

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The big question here is: does eichel want out?

If so, can a team build a package that is better than one centered around laine? In an earlier post I mentionned perfetti as another piece, who can be developed as a C. We'd still be looking at heinola/Samberg and/or 1st

I don't think Eichel wants out, I think he wants to play on a contender. I believe he'd much prefer if that were Buffalo over another team. He wants to make Buffalo better.
 
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LowLefty

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I can't see Buffalo having any interest in Laine - they do not need another winger and especially one that will be fairly expensive down the road.
In fact, if Eichel goes, it's likely because of better opportunity elsewhere - I can see Laine having the exact same issues playing with Buffalo - signing him long term might be a problem.
Regardless, they will be lining up to steal this guy from Buffalo - he is one of the best out C's out there and has played with a pretty terrible team all of his career - he'll tear it up playing with a team that has some talent - it's frightening actually.
Covid or not, teams will make room for him any way they can. There will be a ton of interest and there will be much better offers than Laine and an add.
 
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buggs

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Well he ain't getting that type of cash now given COVID.

It's likely Laine @ $8 million vs. Echel at 10 and don't think anyone was proposing one for one. Most other top centers have been quantity for quality.

Flat cap, potentially declining cap. Honestly if I were Laine I'd be asking for Connor money on a five year deal. A little quicker to UFA is the prize in that instance and possibly the only one he'll see. Maybe he can negotiate a signing bonus of significance.

This is going to end up being a pro-rated season at best, if they get lucky enough to get it all in. Maybe, MAYBE the vaccines are as effective as advertised/promised and we go back to normalcy for 21-22 but there's probably going to be distribution issues that slow the uptake so there may well be an impact the following year as well.

And I think that's the case with whether he stays in Winnipeg or goes elsewhere. The economics of the NHL are up in the air for the short to mid-term which will comprise something like 10-25% of the career of anyone in the NHL right now. I don't think it's a prudent time to be greedy.
 

surixon

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Flat cap, potentially declining cap. Honestly if I were Laine I'd be asking for Connor money on a five year deal. A little quicker to UFA is the prize in that instance and possibly the only one he'll see. Maybe he can negotiate a signing bonus of significance.

This is going to end up being a pro-rated season at best, if they get lucky enough to get it all in. Maybe, MAYBE the vaccines are as effective as advertised/promised and we go back to normalcy for 21-22 but there's probably going to be distribution issues that slow the uptake so there may well be an impact the following year as well.

And I think that's the case with whether he stays in Winnipeg or goes elsewhere. The economics of the NHL are up in the air for the short to mid-term which will comprise something like 10-25% of the career of anyone in the NHL right now. I don't think it's a prudent time to be greedy.

Yup we have seen a number of low value deals to good players this summer. He is looking at 7.25 million at most (QO). If I were him I would take a 3 to 4 year deal at $7.5 million and try to hit UFA when the cap might be expected to bounce back. It doesn't even matter if things are back to normal in 21-22 as the players have to pay back their 50% of revenue and I take it that will keep the cap flat for a number of years after recovery.
 

Buffdog

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I don't think Eichel wants out, I think he wants to play on a contender. I believe he'd much prefer if that were Buffalo over another team. He wants to make Buffalo better.
I guess that's what I meant. Ownership and management prior to recently (which pains me to say since I used to play against botterill) was a shitshow. They brought in Krueger and new GM but with that ownership group, they seem to be destined to be shitty all the time despite some good pieces.

I just don't see a path to contendership with their F depth, D and goaltender situation
 
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