Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumours (Mod warning OP)

[KingBogo]

No. But I think we are more contenders with a different coach than we are with a different gm.

Why change the coach if no one holds you accountable for the on ice product? Job security wise Chevy can go happily about his business in the just about bubble talent zone while everyone points at Maurice with all their fury. Sounds like a pretty good gig to me. BTW Chevy is Maurice's boss and can decide to fire him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why change the coach if no one holds you accountable for the on ice product? Job security wise Chevy can go happily about his business in the just about bubble talent zone while everyone points at Maurice with all their fury. Sounds like a pretty good gig to me. BTW Chevy is Maurice's boss and can decide to fire him.

And I think Maurice is the last coach Chevy gets to fire - if he doesn't wait too long.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see more action from Chevy. I wouldn't want to see him start thrashing about wildly though.

 

[KingBogo]

Yeah, I get that. I give Chevy a little longer as things stand. That could shorten if he hangs on to Maurice too long or if he makes a bad move or two.

There was a "Hockey Writers" article recently where the guy listed some potential trades he thought might help the Jets this year. One of his suggestions was Ehlers (and I think an add, not sure) for Ekblad. If Chevy did that, I would be after his head immediately. Never mind that I'm certain Ekblad is not available.

My biggest frustration with Chevy that this was the year where Winnipeg's historic disadvantages were nullified by unique world circumstances and we mostly saw a typical safe and conservative off season. A couple years ago we had what appeared to be a wide open contention window and within 2 years we are back to being a bubble team hoping on a handful of draft picks to one day develop into important players.

 

[KingBogo]

And I think Maurice is the last coach Chevy gets to fire - if he doesn't wait too long.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't like to see more action from Chevy. I wouldn't want to see him start thrashing about wildly though.

I don't think Chevy will ever thrash around wildly, but IMO he needs to make a statement move (or 2) to try and change course.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My biggest frustration with Chevy that this was the year where Winnipeg's historic disadvantages were nullified by unique world circumstances and we mostly saw a typical safe and conservative off season. A couple years ago we had what appeared to be a wide open contention window and within 2 years we are back to being a bubble team hoping on a handful of draft picks to one day develop into important players.

I agree there. I think there was opportunity. Chevy chose to reacquire Stastny with the resources he had. There are still some resources left, but not enough to leverage into something really good.

Not the way I would have preferred him to go but if Stastny can mesh with Laine again and make him happy it will have been a good move.

Some may see that path as having been the more conservative route, but I think it is actually a pretty big gamble. Stastny will be 35 before he plays another game. If he doesn't have what it takes anymore Chevy will have blown his chance.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think Chevy will ever thrash around wildly, but IMO he needs to make a statement move (or 2) to try and change course.

That's what I was hoping for this off-season. As it is, I am content to wait and see how the Stastny deal works out. If it succeeds both in the standings and in mending the rift with Laine it will have been brilliant. I think it is in the high risk, high reward category though. We'll see how it shakes out.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree there. I think there was opportunity. Chevy chose to reacquire Stastny with the resources he had. There are still some resources left, but not enough to leverage into something really good.

Not the way I would have preferred him to go but if Stastny can mesh with Laine again and make him happy it will have been a good move.

Some may see that path as having been the more conservative route, but I think it is actually a pretty big gamble. Stastny will be 35 before he plays another game. If he doesn't have what it takes anymore Chevy will have blown his chance.

Stastny wasn't a bad gamble IMO and should be a bit of an olive branch to Laine. I know you put more value on draft picks outside of the 1st round then I do, but I would have liked to see Chevy find a way to dump MP and his salary and use that money to maximize a depressed UFA market.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Stastny wasn't a bad gamble IMO and should be a bit of an olive branch to Laine. I know you put more value on draft picks outside of the 1st round then I do, but I would have liked to see Chevy find a way to dump MP and his salary and use that money to maximize a depressed UFA market.

I don't put all that much value on picks outside the 1st rd.

Chevy could have dumped Perreault during the buyout period. I don't see that money as being a difference maker though, after the Stastny trade.

But if you are suggesting a repeat of the Armia fiasco, that is another matter. That was the worst thing Chevy has done and it was damn close to being a fire-able offense right there, IMO. You would not be giving up whatever the price was to save 4.125 cap space. You would be paying that to save the 1.43 mil difference between that and a buyout. Horrible value.

But either way, I still don't think we have enough cap space at that point to be able to leverage it into anything all that significant.

Paying people to taking on our contracts is an unforgivable sin to me, unless the price is no more than a 6th or 7th rd pick. Maybe some teams can afford that kind of move. We can't.

 

[Adam da bomb]

You talk about this season being an opportunity for Chevy to be making big moves but the future is just as uncertain for them as it is for everyone else. This is a big question mark but what if Chipman said he did not want to pay max salary this season. That even though it would be nothing for him, he refuses to lose a single dollar on this investment. Pretty crazy stuff right? But if that's the case Chevy's hands are tied. All assumptions but showing as fans we will never know the full story of what's going on.
We can totally see what the coach is dealing with as it's right in front of us whether he plays Wheeler on the pp instead of Ehlers. We can't see everything the GM is doing.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't put all that much value on picks outside the 1st rd.

Chevy could have dumped Perreault during the buyout period. I don't see that money as being a difference maker though, after the Stastny trade.

But if you are suggesting a repeat of the Armia fiasco, that is another matter. That was the worst thing Chevy has done and it was damn close to being a fire-able offense right there, IMO. You would not be giving up whatever the price was to save 4.125 cap space. You would be paying that to save the 1.43 mil difference between that and a buyout. Horrible value.

But either way, I still don't think we have enough cap space at that point to be able to leverage it into anything all that significant.

Paying people to taking on our contracts is an unforgivable sin to me, unless the price is no more than a 6th or 7th rd pick. Maybe some teams can afford that kind of move. We can't.

But how much more cap would we have if we didn't give Boo Boo, Fodart, Thompson contracts and used that money for one player and used Gustafsson or inhouse?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But how much more cap would we have if we didn't give Boo Boo, Fodart, Thompson contracts and used that money for one player and used Gustafsson or inhouse?

It isn't going to make much difference at the size of their contracts. They probably don't all make the team. We will probably start with 22 players. As a rule of thumb, I always assume replacement players cost 1 mil. Some are a little less, some are a little more. So if we bought out Perreault, I budget 1 mil for someone to take his roster spot. The net gain is something like 1.6. Too lazy to get the exact number.

 

[LowLefty]

I don't think Chevy will ever thrash around wildly, but IMO he needs to make a statement move (or 2) to try and change course.

I think he recently tried to do just that - not sure it would have been that popular.
I don't see him moving players that are signed long term - and that makes for less options.
I don't want him trading away picks or young assets unless they are expendable and then it's no longer a statement move.
So what is there left to do - I'd like to hear your take on this KB because I don't know

 

[bumblebeeman]

My biggest frustration with Chevy that this was the year where Winnipeg's historic disadvantages were nullified by unique world circumstances and we mostly saw a typical safe and conservative off season. A couple years ago we had what appeared to be a wide open contention window and within 2 years we are back to being a bubble team hoping on a handful of draft picks to one day develop into important players.

But why did the Jets take a step back? Losing some depth UFAs like Tanev, Myers, Chiarot. Buff retiring, Little's injury problems. What could Chevy do about any of that really?

 

[surixon]

I think he recently tried to do just that - not sure it would have been that popular.
I don't see him moving players that are signed long term - and that makes for less options.
I don't want him trading away picks or young assets unless they are expendable and then it's no longer a statement move.
So what is there left to do - I'd like to hear your take on this KB because I don't know

The other issue right now is the pending expansion draft. How many teams out there want to acquire middling assets like a Roslovic and then be forced to utilize a protection slot on him or lose him for nothing. Unfortunately I feel teams won't be super aggressive again until after next years expansion draft.

 

[KingBogo]

I think he recently tried to do just that - not sure it would have been that popular.
I don't see him moving players that are signed long term - and that makes for less options.
I don't want him trading away picks or young assets unless they are expendable and then it's no longer a statement move.
So what is there left to do - I'd like to hear your take on this KB because I don't know

Just my thoughts, but who I believe to be one of the very best GMs in the league Joe Sakic trades 2nd and 3rd round picks like they are Halloween candy. Looking at his track record 2, 2nd round picks = 1 top 6 forward or 1 top 4 Dman in their mid 20's. To me this makes perfect sense any organization would love to have this type of draft and develop track record. The truth is Scheifele will be 28 y/o this coming March and he has 3-5 years left of his prime. He is the key IMO, because if he ages out while we remain a bubble team waiting on some sort of draft and develop miracle we will be forced to start from scratch unless Perfetti becomes as good or better center.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't put all that much value on picks outside the 1st rd.

Chevy could have dumped Perreault during the buyout period. I don't see that money as being a difference maker though, after the Stastny trade.

But if you are suggesting a repeat of the Armia fiasco, that is another matter. That was the worst thing Chevy has done and it was damn close to being a fire-able offense right there, IMO. You would not be giving up whatever the price was to save 4.125 cap space. You would be paying that to save the 1.43 mil difference between that and a buyout. Horrible value.

But either way, I still don't think we have enough cap space at that point to be able to leverage it into anything all that significant.

Paying people to taking on our contracts is an unforgivable sin to me, unless the price is no more than a 6th or 7th rd pick. Maybe some teams can afford that kind of move. We can't.

I don't see using Armia to move a bad contract as Chevy's worst move. He is a 30 point bottom 6 winger, probably the easiest commodity on the open market to get for free. He isn't even close to the top Hab forwards in underlying numbers and for $2.6 M he is about what you pay for. Copp is more valuable for $320,000 less per year. I would have preferred a MP buyout but I'd be open to a cap dump price at this point if it was followed by using the cap space to get a player at under the previous market price.

 

[surixon]

Just my thoughts, but who I believe to be one of the very best GMs in the league Joe Sakic trades 2nd and 3rd round picks like they are Halloween candy. Looking at his track record 2, 2nd round picks = 1 top 6 forward or 1 top 4 Dman in their mid 20's. To me this makes perfect sense any organization would love to have this type of draft and develop track record. The truth is Scheifele will be 28 y/o this coming March and he has 3-5 years left of his prime. He is the key IMO, because if he ages out while we remain a bubble team waiting on some sort of draft and develop miracle we will be forced to start from scratch unless Perfetti becomes as good or better center.

What are your thoughts on this vis a vis taking into account the expansion draft. I don't have an issue with your plan in theory but imo the pending expansion draft puts some constraints on what you can do. First off I think other teams are much more prepared this time around and aren't going to be quick with regards to moving out young exempt elc players, nor will they be quick to move in middling players that they will need to utilize a slot for. So to me that means that the majority of moves will either be impact player for impact player (No net change in protection slots) or a draft pick package for players that other teams aren't able to protect or to take advantage of a cap strapped team.

The biggest issue with your strategy is that the team needs to have open protection slots in order to facilitate such a trade this offseason. The Jets due to our forward core require us to go the 7-3-1 route barring a skilled winger for top pairing RD trade which would allow us to go 4-4-1. Given that such a move is unlikely we are left contemplating moving a couple of seconds for another top 4 dmen. What is the opportunity cost of making such a move in a year where you will then have to expose one of that dmen, DeMelo, Pionk vs. breaking in a developed bluechip exempt prospect like Samberg this year. Factor in if you also want to keep the 4 dmen that you have you may also have to pay additional assets for them not to take one of them. To me I think the from an asset maximization perspective at this point utilizing a ready/near ready prospect over paying additional draft capital and potentially losing that asset for nothing in a year is the smarter decision with the pending expansion draft.

 

[surixon]

I don't see using Armia to move a bad contract as Chevy's worst move. He is a 30 point bottom 6 winger, probably the easiest commodity on the open market to get for free. He isn't even close to the top Hab forwards in underlying numbers and for $2.6 M he is about what you pay for. Copp is more valuable for $320,000 less per year. I would have preferred a MP buyout but I'd be open to a cap dump price at this point if it was followed by using the cap space to get a player at under the previous market price.

Yeah Armia is a nice bottom 6 piece but he isn't anything special.

 

[KingBogo]

What are your thoughts on this vis a vis taking into account the expansion draft. I don't have an issue with your plan in theory but imo the pending expansion draft puts some constraints on what you can do. First off I think other teams are much more prepared this time around and aren't going to be quick with regards to moving out young exempt elc players, nor will they be quick to move in middling players that they will need to utilize a slot for. So to me that means that the majority of moves will either be impact player for impact player (No net change in protection slots) or a draft pick package for players that other teams aren't able to protect or to take advantage of a cap strapped team.

The biggest issue with your strategy is that the team needs to have open protection slots in order to facilitate such a trade this offseason. The Jets due to our forward core require us to go the 7-3-1 route barring a skilled winger for top pairing RD trade which would allow us to go 4-4-1. Given that such a move is unlikely we are left contemplating moving a couple of seconds for another top 4 dmen. What is the opportunity cost of making such a move in a year where you will then have to expose one of that dmen, DeMelo, Pionk vs. breaking in a developed bluechip exempt prospect like Samberg this year. Factor in if you also want to keep the 4 dmen that you have you may also have to pay additional assets for them not to take one of them. To me I think the from an asset maximization perspective at this point utilizing a ready/near ready prospect over paying additional draft capital and potentially losing that asset for nothing in a year is the smarter decision with the pending expansion draft.

In terms of the expansion draft you can only lose 1 player and I think Wheeler will waive his NMC because he is very unlikely to be selected and it would be an ultimate captain move. If he does there will be unquestioned loyalty afterwards. After that we only really have 4 forwards we need to protect. Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine and Connor. After that let Seattle pick however they want. Having 4 defenseman worth protecting is pure gold after last season IMO.

 

[surixon]

In terms of the expansion draft you can only lose 1 player and I think Wheeler will waive his NMC because he is very unlikely to be selected and it would be an ultimate captain move. If he does there will be unquestioned loyalty afterwards. After that we only really have 4 forwards we need to protect. Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine and Connor. After that let Seattle pick however they want. Having 4 defenseman worth protecting is pure gold after last season IMO.

That is a very big if that imo we really can't count on him doing. If he did then by all means make a move for another proven top 4 dmen. I just can't see the org asking him to do that or him agreeing to. There is always the chance that Seattle would take him for his leadership as well as a means of reaching the cap floor depending on what else they have open to them. While I wouldn't necessarily have an issue with that imo it wouldn't look great for the franchise.

I could also see Seattle try to leverage picking Wheeler to extract assets from the org.

 

[KingBogo]

That is a very big if that imo we really can't count on him doing. If he did then by all means make a move for another proven top 4 dmen. I just can't see the org asking him to do that or him agreeing to. There is always the chance that Seattle would take him for his leadership as well as a means of reaching the cap floor depending on what else they have open to them. While I wouldn't necessarily have an issue with that imo it wouldn't look great for the franchise.

I could also see Seattle try to leverage picking Wheeler to extract assets from the org.

My thinking is if Seattle picked Wheeler they would be doing a LV type attempt to win in the first couple seasons and Wheeler would very likely be the 1st captain. Seattle is also a great northwest city with probably a community like feel a young family man would be happy with. If Chevy was happy keeping the team in neutral I can see this as very appealing for a guy going into his last couple seasons.

 

[surixon]

My thinking is if Seattle picked Wheeler they would be doing a LV type attempt to win in the first couple seasons and Wheeler would very likely be the 1st captain. Seattle is also a great northwest city with probably a community like feel a young family man would be happy with. If Chevy was happy keeping the team in neutral I can see this as very appealing for a guy going into his last couple seasons.

He if he is ok moving on then I think we could weaponize his cap space more effectively next offseason. I would be giving Hamilton a blank cheque and then running something like this in 21-22:

Ehlers Scheifele Laine
Conner Stastney/Perfetti FA/Roslovic
Vesalinaen Stastney/Perfetti FA/Roslovic
Copp Lowry/Harkins Appelton

Morrissey Hamilton
Samberg/other top 4 dmen Pionk
Heinola/Samberg DeMelo

 

[surixon]

As an aside an idea I have been thinking of is moving Heinola plus Roslovic and a 1st for an impact top pairing RD.

My logic is that you have Morrissey locked in long term for our top pairing and we have another plus LD prospect that may better fit what the Jets want to anchor our second pairing in Samberg. Heinola has less value to us as a third pairing puck moving dmen then he would likely have for another team.

If we can get an impactful RD we can then push DeMelo down to the second/third pairing and then go out and acquire a bottom pairing LD in FA.

Morrissey Top pairing RD
Samberg Pionk/DeMelo
FA/Forbert Pionk/DeMelo

 

[KingBogo]

As an aside an idea I have been thinking of is moving Heinola plus Roslovic and a 1st for an impact top pairing RD.

My logic is that you have Morrissey locked in long term for our top pairing and we have another plus LD prospect that may better fit what the Jets want to anchor our second pairing in Samberg. Heinola has less value to us as a third pairing puck moving dmen then he would likely have for another team.

If we can get an impactful RD we can then push DeMelo down to the second/third pairing and then go out and acquire a bottom pairing LD in FA.

Morrissey Top pairing RD
Samberg Pionk/DeMelo
FA/Forbert Pionk/DeMelo

Interesting idea. Any top pairing RHD you have in mind?

 

[tbcwpg]

I don't put all that much value on picks outside the 1st rd.

Chevy could have dumped Perreault during the buyout period. I don't see that money as being a difference maker though, after the Stastny trade.

But if you are suggesting a repeat of the Armia fiasco, that is another matter. That was the worst thing Chevy has done and it was damn close to being a fire-able offense right there, IMO. You would not be giving up whatever the price was to save 4.125 cap space. You would be paying that to save the 1.43 mil difference between that and a buyout. Horrible value.

But either way, I still don't think we have enough cap space at that point to be able to leverage it into anything all that significant.

Paying people to taking on our contracts is an unforgivable sin to me, unless the price is no more than a 6th or 7th rd pick. Maybe some teams can afford that kind of move. We can't.

Yet you've criticized Chevy for not having Vegas pay the Jets to take on Stastny. Getting rid of the full cap and not spreading it around is worth it to me - we may disagree but there is value to not having dead cap on the roster.

Not to mention I think Armia's value is severely overrated by some here, and only because he was traded.