Speculation: Trade, FA & Rumours (Mod warning OP)

[Mortimer Snerd]

A 35 Goal PPG winger doesn’t get you a #1 Dman unless they are closing in UFA status or on the downward side of their prime. To get a young prime #1 Dman with team control you would have to offer up a top tier winger who drives play and can score 100+ points. Now you are talking Kuch or Panarin level.

Wait, are we talking a top 10 in the league Dman? I'm not.

I don't think we need that. Top 30, or even top 50 would do. By definition, there are 62 top pair Dmen in the league. My preferred target goes the other way. I will take potential rather than paying for fully proven. There is risk in everything we might do - or not do, so I am willing to accept reasonable risk. And 35 goal, PPG winger is Laine's floor, not his ceiling.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Cap distribution isn't as much an issue when you have key players on elc's. That was really all I was getting at.

OK. I don't think we have a severe cap problem on the horizon, even with the flat cap. It is going to be a little difficult, but it is manageable. No need for Perfetti this year so his ELC will expire the same time as Wheeler's contract. Unless Covid pushes Jets to keep him this year in order for him to play and develop. But even if he needs a new contract in 3 years instead of 4, it is manageable. But there will be constant juggling required until we go into full rebuild mode.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm down with that... but I don't see Maurice doing it. Samberg will be first call up

I still would have rather signed a big D partner for Morrissey - think him and demelo will still get smashed while on the ice

A lot of people here will be very disappointed if Samberg doesn't at least play 3rd pair regularly. Quite a few are counting on him to play 2LD before he has many games under his belt.

It is quite common for the better NCAA players to step right in to the NHL, especially if they have 3 years of NCAA behind them. People here who have followed him closely and watched him play are pretty confident so I don't think 3LD is expecting too much. The possibility that he will be not quite ready does exist, of course.

 

[surixon]

OK. I don't think we have a severe cap problem on the horizon, even with the flat cap. It is going to be a little difficult, but it is manageable. No need for Perfetti this year so his ELC will expire the same time as Wheeler's contract. Unless Covid pushes Jets to keep him this year in order for him to play and develop. But even if he needs a new contract in 3 years instead of 4, it is manageable. But there will be constant juggling required until we go into full rebuild mode.

I agree, my comment was in response to another comment saying that we had too much cap allocated in our wingers. It isn't much of an issue if you have Perfetti at 2C and are only allocating 7.5 million tonyour top 2 centers.

 

[WolfHouse]

A lot of people here will be very disappointed if Samberg doesn't at least play 3rd pair regularly. Quite a few are counting on him to play 2LD before he has many games under his belt.

It is quite common for the better NCAA players to step right in to the NHL, especially if they have 3 years of NCAA behind them. People here who have followed him closely and watched him play are pretty confident so I don't think 3LD is expecting too much. The possibility that he will be not quite ready does exist, of course.

Like I said, I'd love to see him as 2LD actually beside Pionk... but I thought Poolman would stay in the lineup from day one as well. Its not really how the Jets roll.

They usually have extreme patience with prospects (likely too much so now...) and Maurice loves guys lie Forbort and Beaulieu... Samberg is likely better than both but Mo loves his vets. Same reason Thompson will play and one of Harkins or Appleton will sit... kind of no reason ha.

 

[voyageur]

Yes, I know the 2015 line was not together long. I concede the small sample size every time I mention them. If they don't stand up over time, OK. But when you find something that works that well, you stick with it until it no longer works.

Yes Lowry is going to get more minutes than Rosie, or anyone else who is not in the top 6 and sometimes more than some who are. That is what I think is wrong. In spite of his positives, he is a 4th line C. I could see Harkins - Copp - Rosie/Appleton as an alternative to HRA. That line doesn't have to be written in stone, anymore than the Copp - Lowry pairing should be written in stone. I think it is less likely to be successful, but I wouldn't mind trying Harkins - Lowry - Rosie/Appleton either.

None of these players is ever going to shine if they are never given the opportunity. Too many of these possibilities are never tried, or are tried very briefly and discarded regardless of whether they worked or not. It appears that we may lose more players because they feel their careers are being blocked by Maurice. It is unacceptable to be losing good players because the coach won't give them opportunity. Coaches are a dime a dozen compared to players. Or to put it another way, easier to replace 1 coach than a dozen players.

So far I think the only player who has moved out of Winnipeg because of lack of opportunity is Brendan Lemieux, and he could be a liability on the ice, so it's not the biggest loss. Have to work your way up. I don't mind any of the ideas that make us a 4 line team. There are going to be different combinations. The more versatile a player becomes, like a Copp, Roslovic or Harkins the more options you have. I've wondered how good of a player Lowry could be as a winger. That was his natural position and he almost cracked the team at 19 as a winger. The transition to centre made him a different player, but he's been that matchup centre since Maurice took over. As long as he wins more matchups than he loses, he seems to be a good fit for the role. I'm most excited in terms of prospects in Gustafsson's potential to be a 3rd line centre. He handles the puck very well for a centre.

 

[voyageur]

The Jets aren’t going to have their prize prospect sit in the the PB and miss out a season of hockey. They thought he was ready last season but he went back to UMD in hopes of a 3rd national championship.

If the Jets carry an expanded roster to start the year, and that seems likely with bubble talk, then you want some extra reserves, when players are quarantined. You'd probably have 11 d-men, maybe 12 on 31 player roster.

Right now I think Samberg would be in the 5-9 range, and probably get playing time, with practice time. Remember Maurice is a practice first kind of coach when promoting young players.

It's Chisholm who will be in no man's land. He wouldn't start playing until there is an AHL season.
In terms of depth Kovacevic, Stanley, and Nogier would all be ahead of him, having experience playing for Maurice/Vincent. The Jets could afford to leave Gawanke in Europe if there is no AHL, having Niku for the same role.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree, my comment was in response to another comment saying that we had too much cap allocated in our wingers. It isn't much of an issue if you have Perfetti at 2C and are only allocating 7.5 million tonyour top 2 centers.

I get the idea of imbalances in the way cap is allocated. But perfect, or even near perfect distribution is not a practicable target. No one has that. We have an area of strength. Therefore we have a cap spending imbalance. If that also means we have a roster weakness, it is that weakness that needs to be dealt with. Dealing with it may or may not lead to more balanced spending.

Spending balance itself is not a goal that should even be sought. It is something that follows roster building, not something that leads it. When spending in one area is inhibiting improving the team, it needs to be addressed. But balanced spending by itself does not add wins.

 

[GumbyCan2]

First thing you need to do is get Samberg out of the press box.

For sure. I believe you put him in at the start and see how he does. Especially with no Moose/Ahl. A waste having him in the press box to start, unless nursing an injury!

 

[GumbyCan2]

I get the idea of imbalances in the way cap is allocated. But perfect, or even near perfect distribution is not a practicable target. No one has that. We have an area of strength. Therefore we have a cap spending imbalance. If that also means we have a roster weakness, it is that weakness that needs to be dealt with. Dealing with it may or may not lead to more balanced spending.

Spending balance itself is not a goal that should even be sought. It is something that follows roster building, not something that leads it. When spending in one area is inhibiting improving the team, it needs to be addressed. But balanced spending by itself does not add wins.

Absolutely true.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like I said, I'd love to see him as 2LD actually beside Pionk... but I thought Poolman would stay in the lineup from day one as well. Its not really how the Jets roll.

They usually have extreme patience with prospects (likely too much so now...) and Maurice loves guys lie Forbort and Beaulieu... Samberg is likely better than both but Mo loves his vets. Same reason Thompson will play and one of Harkins or Appleton will sit... kind of no reason ha.

Mau loves his vets, sure. But he starts good rookie Dmen on the 3rd pair.

I don't see Poolman not starting. He is on the right side, Samberg is on the left. The question will be who plays 2LD ahead of Samberg. The consensus bet seems to be Forbort but that remains to be seen.

I think 3LD is Samberg's to lose. He will need to be quite obviously unready to not get that spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So far I think the only player who has moved out of Winnipeg because of lack of opportunity is Brendan Lemieux, and he could be a liability on the ice, so it's not the biggest loss. Have to work your way up. I don't mind any of the ideas that make us a 4 line team. There are going to be different combinations. The more versatile a player becomes, like a Copp, Roslovic or Harkins the more options you have. I've wondered how good of a player Lowry could be as a winger. That was his natural position and he almost cracked the team at 19 as a winger. The transition to centre made him a different player, but he's been that matchup centre since Maurice took over. As long as he wins more matchups than he loses, he seems to be a good fit for the role. I'm most excited in terms of prospects in Gustafsson's potential to be a 3rd line centre. He handles the puck very well for a centre.

Rather than debate who has moved out due to lack of opportunity so far, lets look at current unhappy players. Laine and Roslovic are already 2 too many. There are more. Copp is another probable.

Yes, you have to work your way up. And that is what players are not being allowed to do with the Jets. The only spots that are available require players who play a checking game. If you are not suited to that role, you don't stand a chance. If you are suited to it, you probably have a ceiling in the bottom 6.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Lowry moves on. Then Gus gets to replace him. Or we manage to keep Copp and Gus plays 4C.

 

[surixon]

Rather than debate who has moved out due to lack of opportunity so far, lets look at current unhappy players. Laine and Roslovic are already 2 too many. There are more. Copp is another probable.

Yes, you have to work your way up. And that is what players are not being allowed to do with the Jets. The only spots that are available require players who play a checking game. If you are not suited to that role, you don't stand a chance. If you are suited to it, you probably have a ceiling in the bottom 6.

I think there is a pretty good chance that Lowry moves on. Then Gus gets to replace him. Or we manage to keep Copp and Gus plays 4C.

I am actually a bit surprised that we haven't heard anything on a potential Lowry extension. Given how much the coach loves him you would have thought that would be on the to do list this offseason.

Given COVID ans his lack of offense you would think Lowry would be jumping to sign an extension for security now.

 

[Hunter368]

NHL Rumors: Winnipeg Jets - Paul Stastny Could Help Increase Patrik Laine's Trade Value - NHL Rumors

Article from SportsNet, summary:

- Laine will play with Stastny

- Jets hope Laine sees this trade to get Stastny as a olive branch showing that the team wants to help him be successful and stay long term.

- If Laine wants out after next year anyways, well at least Stastny has helped pump up Laine value as high as they can get it, which will be high......they could then trade him next summer at as high value as possible.

All things we’ve discussed before but now the media is also jumping on board with the logic.

 

[Whileee]

I am actually a bit surprised that we haven't heard anything on a potential Lowry extension. Given how much the coach loves him you would have thought that would be on the to do list this offseason.

Given COVID ans his lack of offense you would think Lowry would be jumping to sign an extension for security now.

From the Jets' perspective, it makes sense to wait until after the expansion draft, which would in effect "protect" Lowry (all Seattle would acquire by picking him would be his negotiation rights). But I would think that Lowry would want to extend before then, if he wants to stay long-term.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A couple of thoughts that I will combine here instead of making 2 posts.

1) What would it cost us to get Helge Grans out of LA? I had hoped he would still be available at 40 but LAK grabbed him at 35. Big strong 2 way right hand shot Dman. I think he could be a bit of a sleeper with 1st pair upside. Otherwise, strong 2nd pair.

2) What might Lowry bring in trade right now? He is a type of player that a lot of teams would want. He could be bundled with Rosie and/or picks, etc.

Those 2 questions are not related - but maybe they could be, up to you.

 

[GeorgeJETson]

NHL Rumors: Winnipeg Jets - Paul Stastny Could Help Increase Patrik Laine's Trade Value - NHL Rumors

Article from SportsNet, summary:

- Laine will play with Stastny

- Jets hope Laine sees this trade to get Stastny as a olive branch showing that the team wants to help him be successful and stay long term.

- If Laine wants out after next year anyways, well at least Stastny has helped pump up Laine value as high as they can get it, which will be high......they could then trade him next summer at as high value as possible.

All things we’ve discussed before but now the media is also jumping on board with the logic.

They probably got the idea from reading this board

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think COVID has put breaks on a potential raise for him. I can't see him getting more then what he is currently making.

Much more than his current salary is too much.

Aren't you the guy who talks about the mistake of overpaying mid roster players?

 

[surixon]

Much more than his current salary is too much.

Aren't you the guy who talks about the mistake of overpaying mid roster players?

I personally wouldn't pay him over $3 million AAV on a two to three year term.

Yes I dont like overpaying for depth players which is why I think you can only have 2 middling deals in your bottom 6 whereas the rest are on cheap bridge deals or ELCs.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I still don't really see how they are on the same page. The player types we draft are in contrast to the type of scheme and player type our coach prefers.

It seems so much energy is spent transforming certain players games to fit the style our coach wants.

Laine was arguably a more lethal player in 16-17 and 18-19 then he has been the last few years. Sure he got his offense back to where it was in 17-18 playing a more grinding Maurice style of game but imo the smarter development option would have been to emphasis his strengths from the first few years while slowly backfilling his weaknesses. What happened is Moe has gone about completely altering his game. We ate seeing similarly with a player like Ves and Ehlers has continually been thrown under the bus by the coach for not playing how he wants him to despite terrific results.

We need to bring in someone who is more concerned with deriving something to match our players then spending so much time trying to change our players into what he wants them to be.

I agree with you

 

[PhilJets]

They probably got the idea from reading this board

Maybe they did

YOU BE THE BOSS: Jets fans say don’t trade Laine, do trade Roslovic and make things happen this season, or else | Winnipeg Sun

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree and I think that is what the best coaches do. They emphasis the players strengths while working on addressing weaknesses.

I mean I know I am somewhat biased and watch this org more then others but I just don't see star players in other orgs being asked to fundamentally change how they play to the same extend as some of our players have been asked to change.

I mean I look around the league and most star players look more or less how they looked style wise prior to making the show. With a player like Laine he looks nothing like he did prior to the NHL. Guys like Morrissey, Conner, and Scheifele also look a decent amount different. I'm not saying these players aren't successful playing the way they are but to me it just seems such a longer process to remodel individual playing styles then to remodel a system to fit the playing types you have.

I also I.agine its much easier to focus on some weak areas while you are playing your preferred style of game.

I think it applies even more to the bottom 6 guys than it does to the top 6. Top 6 players have changed their games somewhat. Some more than others. But apart from possibly Laine, I think that is mostly just maturing in the NHL and of course, being handed a system to play within. But they should be playing that system in their style. The bottom 6 players are being forced to become completely different players.

We could credit Maurice with having done a pretty good job developing his young top 6 players. But in 6 1/2 seasons he has developed Copp and Lowry for the bottom 6. I guess we can add Tanev. But they are all players who arrived already playing the style Maurice wants from his bottom 6.

What would have happened if Chevy had gone to FA and signed a couple of established, scoring 3rd liners in the off-season? Would they have had to play 4th line because they couldn't defend like Copp and Lowry? Or would bringing a reputation with them be enough to gain entry to a different style of bottom 6?

 

[tbcwpg]

Moved a lot of coaching talk to the coaching thread (I was guilty as well). This thread is not about Maurice's usage of players.

 

[10Ducky10]

I personally wouldn't pay him over $3 million AAV on a two to three year term.

Yes I dont like overpaying for depth players which is why I think you can only have 2 middling deals in your bottom 6 whereas the rest are on cheap bridge deals or ELCs.

I'd offer him no more than 2 x 3.5m or 3 x 3m.

 

[bennylundholm]

A couple of thoughts that I will combine here instead of making 2 posts.

1) What would it cost us to get Helge Grans out of LA? I had hoped he would still be available at 40 but LAK grabbed him at 35. Big strong 2 way right hand shot Dman. I think he could be a bit of a sleeper with 1st pair upside. Otherwise, strong 2nd pair.

2) What might Lowry bring in trade right now? He is a type of player that a lot of teams would want. He could be bundled with Rosie and/or picks, etc.

Those 2 questions are not related - but maybe they could be, up to you.

Trading Lowry would be detrimental no matter what return.
The reality is he would not return anything substantial.
He is exactly the type of player a team making a run in the playoffs needs. We don't need him producing much offence. We do need his size and toughness in the playoffs.