letsgrowcactus
Registered User
- Jan 21, 2017
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I mean, the kid is still just 22 (will turn 23 in April); he is in his D+5 year (5th season since being drafted). We put him into a backup role in his D+3 year, which is extremely soon for a goalie - out of all U30 goalies currently playing meaningful games in the NHL, only Vasilevsky and Carter Hart entered the league that young. For a future starting goalie in his D+5 year, establishing himself as the n.1 in the AHL is a perfectly normal development - and Knight has done that much at least. I looked into this some time ago and there've been extremely few goalies who entered the NHL as young as Knight and succeeded at becoming clear-cut, solid starters (IIRC, 2 guys over the past 2 decades; Vasilevsky and Fleury, both Vezina guys). We rushed him instead of being patient, the OCD issues hurt him further; hopefully, he can get back on track, but it might take a while.
The only goalie in the NHL this season who is Knight's age or younger and played a meaningful amount of games in the NHL was Levi (D+4), which IMO was also rather premature, although Buffalo figured that out relatively soon and sent him down, where he's doing well.
If you look at young goalies playing in the NHL now, you get Hofer (D+6, 22 games) and Dostal (D+6, 27 games) as backups, both notably on non-playoff teams, though doing okay. A couple more guys have also played some games (<20), but they are splitting time with the AHL. At D+7, you add Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen, Kochetkov and Errson playing a meaningful amount of games, and that's it.
When you look at the young goalies (<30) who are currently NHL starters or at least 1Bs, Swayman got his first sniff of the NHL in his D+4 year, and became a 1B in year D+5. Skinner saw some NHL time in his D+5 year, and became a starter in year D+6. Oettiger was an NHL backup in year D+4; starter in year D+5. Gustaffson (MIN) first sniffed NHL in his D+5 year, currently a 1A in year D+8. Adin Hill played 13 NHL games in what should have been his D+5 year; still wasn't even a clear backup in year D+8, won a SC last year in his D+9 year. Daccord, Seattle's starter, didn't play more than 5 NHL game in a single season until this year, which is his D+9. Demko first sniffed the NHL in his D+5 year, became backup in D+6, starter in D+8. Jarry in Pittsburgh acted shortly as an NHL backup in his D+5 year before spending more time in the NHL, took over the starting role in year D+9. Shestyorkin was an NHL backup in year D+6, became a starter in year D+7. Connor Ingram in Arizona was a backup in year D+7 and is now a starter in year D+8. Sorokin was a backup in his year D+7; became a starter in year D+8 (although in his case, his KHL years might be screwing the picture a bit). Logan Thompson (Vegas's other goalie) became an NHL backup in year D+7; 1B in year D+8. Carter Hart is one of those "very promising, rushed into the league" guys: acted as a backup in year D+3, currently in year D+8, has yet to establish himself as a clear-cut starter. Saros became a backup in year D+4; 1B in year D+7, starter in year D+8. Our good old friend Sam Montebeault first sniffed the NHL in his D+4 year; became a 1A/B in year D+7. Merzlikins became a backup in year D+6, a starter in year D+8 (currently relegated back to 1B level). Georgiyev became a backup in year D+5, became a starter in year D+9. Blackwood became a backup in year D+4; still not a clear starter. Vasilevsky, the rare successful freak of nature, became a backup in year D+3 and a starter in year D+5. Vanecek became a 1B in year D+7 and that's probably his limit. Korpisalo became a backup in year D+4, a 1B in year D+7 and hasn't been more than that. samsonov became a backup in year D+5, a 1B in year D+7 and has yet to establish himself as a solid starter.
TL:;DR: Knight's contract was stupid and extremely premature; expecting him to be a starter last year was crazy optimistic - we essentially expected him to be Vasi 2.0. His development curve so far has been very uneven; nevertheless, he is approximately where he should be as a future NHL starter (or at least 1B) right now. If he doesn't play as an NHL backup and/or put together a very strong AHL campaign next year, that's when I'd start to worry.
