Blue Jays Discussion: Trade Deadline Monday. What will the Jays do?

[theaub]

Disingenuous? I am using hard contact a huge plus for him. Its a stat a use against my argument. I point it out as i see some pluses in Teo's game but most underlying numbers show that not much else has changed in his approach.

What about Sahlen Field and his home road splits? Not saying it is flukish, rather he looks like regular Teo on the road and Babe Ruth-like at Sahlen.

I hope im wrong about Teo but he isnt going to be a 150+ wRC+ moving forward. 120+ is likely and possible but Sahlen has skewed the numbers and the sample is too small for me to move him in the Bautista type breakout.

I mean he's still a 115 wRC+ guy on the road and traditionally guys hit better at home, and we also know that even Toronto skews very nicely for right handed power hitters. I agree he's not going to keep hitting like 1998 Mark McGwire at home though.

If you back out some of the noise (ie the 50% HR/FB rate at home etc), you're still looking at a ~.390 wOBA/140 wRC+ guy, and that doesn't take into the fact that with how hard he's currently hitting the ball I'm still not entirely comfortable calling it noise.

The test for him will be when they really start feeding him breaking balls, because he currently has a wOBA north of .550 against fastballs which is patently ridiculous.

 

[BAM]

I'd rather target Chapman than Lindor.

I would as well but there's two issues:

1. The A's are an elite team and have the 3rd best record in baseball and no reason to trade him.

2. Chapman probably costs Martin and Groshans, the A's have him for 3 more years after this one.

 

[Greek_physique]

I'd rather target Chapman than Lindor.

I'm sure 28 other teams would be lined up as well...no reason for him to be moved.

 

[Clark4Ever]

If we can hold on and make the playoffs this season, whatever we do thereafter will be a bonus considering the development curve of our young core. I don't want management to give up any significant assets for short term gain.

 

[theaub]

For all these comments about how the Jays shouldn't go for it, is anyone actually suggesting that the Jays do go for it?

 

[Woodman19]

It's not the worst thing to hold on to our plethora of prospects when we likely are going to make the playoffs this year regardless. I still hope we at least get an infielder though so I don't have to watch Panik ever again.

 

[canucksfan]

I would as well but there's two issues:

1. The A's are an elite team and have the 3rd best record in baseball and no reason to trade him.

2. Chapman probably costs Martin and Groshans, the A's have him for 3 more years after this one.

They definitely won't move him now. I thought there were rumors before the season started A's were maybe thinking about trading him?

I don't think it would cost Martin and Groshans. One of them for sure though.

 

[BAM]

It's not the worst thing to hold on to our plethora of prospects when we likely are going to make the playoffs this year regardless. I still hope we at least get an infielder though so I don't have to watch Panik ever again.

What if you can use some of those prospects to acquire a good/great player that can be part of your long-term plans this season?

 

[Woodman19]

What if you can use some of those prospects to acquire a good/great player that can be part of your long-term plans this season?

Then you do it? What kind of question is that lol. Not like I said we shouldn't make a trade

 

[dubplatepressure]

Question for you guys more knowledgeable than I can answer - for players to be named later, does said unknown player's value go up or down based on how successful the traded known player's performance is? Ie if we trade for Taijuan Walker, he goes 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA, does the player to be named later's value go up as a result of this?

 

[BAM]

They definitely won't move him now. I thought there were rumors before the season started A's were maybe thinking about trading him?

I don't think it would cost Martin and Groshans. One of them for sure though.

In his time with the A's, Chapman has been better than Donaldson and doing it while younger prior to when the Jays acquired him.

I think the A's would ask for Martin and Groshans. Idk if I would do it but having 2 MVP level players at 3B and SS along with Vladdy Jr would be a scary team.

 

[Woodman19]

Question for you guys more knowledgeable than I can answer - for players to be named later, does said unknown player's value go up or down based on how successful the traded known player's performance is? Ie if we trade for Taijuan Walker, he goes 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA, does the player to be named later's value go up as a result of this?

Sometimes, but in this case most are players not currently on the 60 man roster so can't be named yet.

 

[BAM]

Then you do it? What kind of question is that lol. Not like I said we shouldn't make a trade

Was literally just a question. Whether it's Lindor or Chapman or whoever. Never said that you said we shouldn't make a trade.

 

[Woodman19]

I'm holding out hope for Lynn, Texas wants catching and we have a lot of depth there. If we can build around a catcher plus a couple mid level pieces I could see it happening.

 

[Puckstuff]

They definitely won't move him now. I thought there were rumors before the season started A's were maybe thinking about trading him?

I don't think it would cost Martin and Groshans. One of them for sure though.

and not to mention the A’s must be totally against doing business with Toronto or AA after that Donaldson fleece

 

[Suntouchable13]

This is gravy anyway. We weren’t expected to compete for playoffs if this was a normal year.

 

[Advanced stats]

For all these comments about how the Jays shouldn't go for it, is anyone actually suggesting that the Jays do go for it?

I think this is a rare scenario where it's appropriate to half-a$$ go for it. The players are obviously putting in the work and deserve to be rewarded with an attempt at the playoffs.

Obviously though this isn't the year to go for broke. We're best to slowly build the team and compete for years.

So yes go for it, but don't go all in.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Sometimes, but in this case most are players not currently on the 60 man roster so can't be named yet.

Which is a stupid rule

But I think I've said that already

 

[phillipmike]

I mean he's still a 115 wRC+ guy on the road and traditionally guys hit better at home, and we also know that even Toronto skews very nicely for right handed power hitters. I agree he's not going to keep hitting like 1998 Mark McGwire at home though.

If you back out some of the noise (ie the 50% HR/FB rate at home etc), you're still looking at a ~.390 wOBA/140 wRC+ guy, and that doesn't take into the fact that with how hard he's currently hitting the ball I'm still not entirely comfortable calling it noise.

The test for him will be when they really start feeding him breaking balls, because he currently has a wOBA north of .550 against fastballs which is patently ridiculous.

But 220 vs 115? That is a big disparity, bigger than most Colorado players who often have that held against them. That is a huge standard deviation that is being ignored. Not once did i infer that it is noise, only that i dont expect to see Hernandez have one of the best offensive seasons in Jays history.

I think you misunderstand what i am saying. Saying a career 106 wRC+ player until 2019 is and can be a 120+ wRC+ guy is not an insult. In fact its a compliment. From the beginning i notice there is improvement and that he can be a very productive player for us, better than previous seasons.

And thats my whole point. nowhere did i crap on Teo just disputing the Bautista comparison. I said many times that i think he can and will be a 120+ wRC+ guy for us. And i think what we seen so far is a very small sample size and will eventually level out to that 120+ point moving forward in his career vs actually think that he will keep up a 150 wRC+ and compare his breakout to Bautista.

I am arguing against a few posters that were comparing his breakout to Bautista's. Me trying to rein in the expectations on Teo somehow turned into me not believing in his improvements are sustainable, which you know admit isnt the case.

You agree with me that Teo isnt all of a sudden Jose Bautista. He might be at some point but he has to show more than he is now. If others believe his breakout, AS IT STANDS NOW, compares to Bautista, then they are in for a rude awakening.

 

[kb]

In his time with the A's, Chapman has been better than Donaldson and doing it while younger prior to when the Jays acquired him.

I think the A's would ask for Martin and Groshans. Idk if I would do it but having 2 MVP level players at 3B and SS along with Vladdy Jr would be a scary team.

Plus Biggio is 2nd only to Lowe for 2nd baseman WAR.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Sometimes, but in this case most are players not currently on the 60 man roster so can't be named yet.

Huh... interesting thanks. Like what happens if we pickup a replacement level guy and he goes on an absolute tear? Or if there's a disagreement over the PTBNH's value? Does it go to arb or something?

 

[Woodman19]

Huh... interesting thanks. Like what happens if we pickup a replacement level guy and he goes on an absolute tear? Or if there's a disagreement over the PTBNH's value? Does it go to arb or something?

What happens when you buy a house and a year later it's value goes up $200,000? Nothing, you paid the agreed price and whatever happens after doesn't matter.

 

[BigBlu]

Sometimes, but in this case most are players not currently on the 60 man roster so can't be named yet.

I thought it was Robertson.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[xxOCZMSxx]

I thought it was Robertson.

...who isn’t on the 60 man...