Blue Jays Discussion: Trade Deadline Monday. What will the Jays do?

[phillipmike]

Wow San Diego did really well here. They lost nearly nothing off substance from their roster. Naylor is a DH, Hedges is their worst catcher and Quantrill is replaced by Clevinger.

Indians are good with prospects and got SS Arias , 2B/SS Miller and pitcher Cantillo. Arias is 7th on the Padres list, Cantillo is 9th and Miller 11th. The guys can turn out to be great but i still dont see why Cleveland makes this trade now. It doesnt make their 2020 team better.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Wow San Diego did really well here. They lost nearly nothing off substance from their roster. Naylor is a DH, Hedges is their worst catcher and Quantrill is replaced by Clevinger.

Indians are good with prospects and got SS Arias and pitcher Cantillo. Arias is 7th on the Padres list and Cantillo is 9th. They guys can turn out to be great but i still dont see why Cleveland makes this trade now. It doesnt make their 2020 team better.

Prob to get the guy off their roster. There's no coming back from the reckless abandon he displayed for his teammates.

 

[Cor]

 

[Haringoth]

So similar/equivalent value so far in the Clev trade is:

Naylor - Fisher
Quantril - Hatch
Arias - Hiraldo
Cantillo - Kloff
Hedges - Reese last year
Miller - K. Smith

Gross. We could've and should've beat that.

It's never just that simple. Different FO's value different things. When we attempted to get Yelich from the Marlins, they apparently valued Brinson higher than Bichette.

It's entirely possible that Cleveland sees something in Quantril or whoever and thinks they got themselves an absolute gem. Hell, we did it with SWR, who was acquired to the sounds of "who?" and he has turned into a marque prospect.

 

[jetsforever]

Great add by SD, really unfortunate for Cleveland that that situation went that way

 

[Morgs]

It's never just that simple. Different FO's value different things. When we attempted to get Yelich from the Marlins, they apparently valued Brinson higher than Bichette.

It's entirely possible that Cleveland sees something in Quantril or whoever and thinks they got themselves an absolute gem. Hell, we did it with SWR, who was acquired to the sounds of "who?" and he has turned into a marque prospect.

I get that, but I just loosely used Fangraphs FV. The Indians didnt make San Diego hurt at all for one of the best pitchers in baseball with 2.5 years of control. I fully didnt expect Gore to be traded, but no Patiño? No Abrams? No Campusano? Not even Morejon??

If you go back to the Stroman trade, before the players were announced there were a few of us (including myself) begging that SWR was involved. I get teams value players differently, but this seems bad for Cleveland and a team (us) should have beaten it.

 

[Tony Romo]

Does this make Lynn cheaper?

 

[kb]

I get that, but I just loosely used Fangraphs FV. The Indians didnt make San Diego hurt at all for one of the best pitchers in baseball with 2.5 years of control. I fully didnt expect Gore to be traded, but no Patiño? No Abrams? No Campusano? Not even Morejon??

If you go back to the Stroman trade, before the players were announced there were a few of us (including myself) begging that SWR was involved. I get teams value players differently, but this seems bad for Cleveland and a team (us) should have beaten it.

I think it is less about the Jays beating that haul than the Indians valuing that haul.

 

[Puckstuff]

Good for San Diego. They have a window of opportunity that has opened and they are going for it. Not sure they actually go all the way... but good move for them

 

[Marshy]

Is that it for the Padres then? Can other playoff bound teams have a turn now?

 

[Morgs]

I think it is less about the Jays beating that haul than the Indians valuing that haul.

Just seems like Cleveland settled. They got more for Bauer.

 

[kb]

Just seems like Cleveland settled. They got more for Bauer.

Possibly, or maybe they just didn't like who was being offered, better or not.

 

[Morgs]

Possibly, or maybe they just didn't like who was being offered, better or not.

Then a good GM would have held onto Clev seeing how he has 2.5 years left.

Like they got some decent pieces, but you're talking about a top-10, arguably top-5 starter in the league without even grabbing a 50FV prospect or a good player with MLB experience.

 

[Greek_physique]

I wonder what this means for Lindor...Indians got back a top SS prospect.

 

[kb]

Then a good GM would have held onto Clev seeing how he has 2.5 years left.

Like they got some decent pieces, but you're talking about a top-10, arguably top-5 starter in the league without even grabbing a 50FV prospect or a good player with MLB experience.

There is no accounting for taste. lol

Perhaps it is just as simple as them not wanting to deal with Shapiro/Atkins in case the deal went south for them. Whatever the reason, it's moot now.

 

[Tony Romo]

I wonder what this means for Lindor...Indians got back a top SS prospect.

wouldn't be surprised if the dodgers are on the other line.

 

[Epictetus]

I wonder what this means for Lindor...Indians got back a top SS prospect.

He'll be traded eventually. They won't be paying him 25-30 million a year.

 

[stickty111]

I get that, but I just loosely used Fangraphs FV. The Indians didnt make San Diego hurt at all for one of the best pitchers in baseball with 2.5 years of control. I fully didnt expect Gore to be traded, but no Patiño? No Abrams? No Campusano? Not even Morejon??

If you go back to the Stroman trade, before the players were announced there were a few of us (including myself) begging that SWR was involved. I get teams value players differently, but this seems bad for Cleveland and a team (us) should have beaten it.

I'm with you.
The positive is you can get Lynn and even Minor for a low price now.

 

[Eyedea]

Just seems like Cleveland settled. They got more for Bauer.

They settled in that deal too.

 

[phillipmike]

In terms of sample size? No, you're right, he's not. In terms of actual production? I don't know... I think his 164 wRC+ so far this year qualifies as close to Bautista's 165 wRC+ in his breakout 2010 season, but I suppose that depends on your definition of "close".

Yeah sample size is big for me. I would like to see him do it for a longer period before pretty much labeling him as close to untouchable which would be doing if we care comparing him to 2010 Bautista.

Usually with breakouts you see underlying change.

Bautista's Breakout:
-Walk rate increased
-K rate decreased
-FB% dramatically increased
-Pull dramatically increased
-Hard contact increased
-BABIP didn't dramatically increase, in fact in 2010 it dramatically fell
-2010 to 2018 Splits; Home: 142 wRC+ | Away: 131 wRC+

Hernendez's "Breakout":
-Walk rate decreased
-K rate decreased but is more or less the same
-FB% decreased
-Pull decreased (may not be a bad thing)
-Hard contact dramatically increased
-BABIP dramatically increased to a career high
-2020 Splits; Home: 220 wRC+ | Away: 115 wRC+

All the above numbers for Teo get worse on the road.

As you can see, Teo's underlying numbers have not supported the notion that this breakout is sustainable which is why i see a sell high candidate. Bautista did this in the non juiced ball era.

The biggest thing for me is Sahlen Field. Over the last 5 Rogers Centre has been closer to the middle of the pack when you look at park factor, if you exclude this year, RC has been in the lower 3rd of the league in 4 of the last 5 year in park factor.

This year Sahlen Field is playing like Coors Field, as they are ranked 2nd in park factor after Colorado and 2nd in HRs.

2020 MLB Park Factors - Runs - Major League Baseball - ESPN

I like Hernedez a lot, im not trashing him as i believe he can a 120 wRC+ OFer which would be great for us but im not buying into his number yet. As it stands i keep him, but in the hypothetical, which is now moot, if someone wants him and offers me an ace with 2.5 years of control, im selling high and trading Teoscar.

 

[Amadeus]

Lindor would be a great acquisition of we can do that!

 

[phillipmike]

Looks like the Jays lost out on Minor.

 

[Deebo]

delete

 

[stickty111]

Looks like the Jays lost out on Minor.

Well so much for that.

 

[stickty111]