GDT: Trade and Free agent rumours thread | Post Trade Deadline Edition

[TheMadHatTrick]

Crazy trade idea (contingent on if we can find a taker for Rielly without taking on anyone or moving out assets). Leafs have cap space and need assets.

From Edmonton:
Nurse + 2026 SRP (52) + 2028 FRP for Stolarz + Benoit

 

[juicer4000]

Is he a weak 4c with an honest assessment or cause of a bad coach and wrong linemates honestly i want wright for 3c personally

That's my assessment. He played enough to gauge what he is, not necessarily what he will be. At any point did he look good as the 4c last year?
Groulx played 3c and drove play by my eye test, better then all the centers. Was that coaching/systems? It seemed like all the other centers stayed too high and weren't involved in the offense. Imo Tavares domi quillan roy laughton rarely were in deep forchecking. I thought groulx was involved, and was still back defending.
Im not implying groulx is good, just that when the team looked slow and uninterested hroulx was at least involved all over the ice.
both had terrible advanced stats, groulx played with terrible 3rd line wingers and against decent competition.
Quillan played with average 4th liners against mostly 4th lines. That's what I mostly base my opinion on

 

[phillipmike]

Crazy trade idea (contingent on if we can find a taker for Rielly without taking on anyone or moving out assets). Leafs have cap space and need assets.

From Edmonton:
Nurse + 2026 SRP (52) + 2028 FRP for Stolarz + Benoit

Honestly, I would do it because Leafs need to be more creative adding assets (younger players and picks to the organization). Leafs should have done more of this last offseason. Had $5M cap space all year and didn’t use it. Like even taking a guy like Laine’s deal on for an extra 3rd is money well spent.

Nurse is an NHL defensemen. If he is a free agent, he is getting $6-7M. He’s just overpaid. Same goes for Rielly, hence why I think he gets assets back.

In 2 years if you need more money for Matthews, you can retain 50% on him and i bet you get positive value back for him making $4.5M for. 33-34 year playing 20 minutes a night. Better than $9M sitting there and/or buying him out and only getting less than $1M in cap space. Just retain.

 

[juicer4000]

No, the difference isn’t that much. It’s around 15-20%.

Please elaborate. Do we agree marner makes $2 million more in Vegas then it would have been in Toronto at the same salary?
If so the leafs would have to pay him $16 million to make up the difference in take home pay.

Also Google ai. Says that raddysh at $5.75 million his take home is $3528971 usd, in Toronto it would be $2679500... like I said almost a million dollar difference... $849471 per year difference. Ontario tax rate is going to be 50%? So $1699942 +5750000 =$7499000
I said almost $8 million but it's actually $7.5million. Assuming he likes tampa and Toronto isn't his first choice, almost $8 million was pretty accurate of a guess-timate

 

[Fogelhund]

Please elaborate. Do we agree marner makes $2 million more in Vegas then it would have been in Toronto at the same salary?
If so the leafs would have to pay him $16 million to make up the difference in take home pay.

Also Google ai. Says that raddysh at $5.75 million his take home is $3528971 usd, in Toronto it would be $2679500... like I said almost a million dollar difference... $849471 per year difference. Ontario tax rate is going to be 50%? So $1699942 +5750000 =$7499000
I said almost $8 million but it's actually $7.5million. Assuming he likes tampa and Toronto isn't his first choice, almost $8 million was pretty accurate of a guess-timate

Look, you don't understand taxation, jock taxes etc... that's fine. Google AI is not going to give you the answers you want. The difference is closer to 15% in most cases. Take 15% and do your math from there.

 

[Fogelhund]

That's my assessment. He played enough to gauge what he is, not necessarily what he will be. At any point did he look good as the 4c last year?
Groulx played 3c and drove play by my eye test, better then all the centers. Was that coaching/systems? It seemed like all the other centers stayed too high and weren't involved in the offense. Imo Tavares domi quillan roy laughton rarely were in deep forchecking. I thought groulx was involved, and was still back defending.
Im not implying groulx is good, just that when the team looked slow and uninterested hroulx was at least involved all over the ice.
both had terrible advanced stats, groulx played with terrible 3rd line wingers and against decent competition.
Quillan played with average 4th liners against mostly 4th lines. That's what I mostly base my opinion on

Have you watched much of the Marlies play?

Quillan is a better C than Groulx, who really is a winger. Quillan isn't a guy who should be relied on to be the 70% starting in the dzone, tied to guys like Pezzetta and Jarnkrok. To boot, we only saw him after the team had given up on life. Watch him on the Marlies, and you get a better understanding of him.

Groulx had some excitement joining the Leafs, and then went seven games to end the season without a point. I like the player though, and he might be someone to consider as a depth winger. As a left winger primarily, I'm not sure where that fits.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Florida could probably fix Nurse. Would not want to find out

 

[Jmo89]

Someone on the trade board brought up an interest scenario on the Leafs get to choose which of Boston or Philly get their 2027 pick if it's top 10. Is there any way the Leafs could strong arm 1 of the teams into trading that pick back to them under the threat of "if you don't we'll just give it to the other team".

For example, Leafs win the lottery, pick is 1st overall. They go to Philly and say we'll trade you X package of assets for that pick. If Philly declines we give the pick to Boston and Philly is left with the 2028 unprotected 1st. Obviously X package of assets would have to be more valuable than our 2028 unprotected 1st otherwise Philly would have no incentive to agree, but I would imagine it would be quite a bit less than the value of 1st overall. How believable is the bluff for either team though. Philly probably won't believe we'll just give Boston 1st overall if they don't agree, and Boston would probably prefer that we give Philly the 1st overall pick rather than trade it back to us.

If we win the 2027 lottery and have to choose which team picks Landon DuPont. Is there any chance Philly would trade that pick back to us for Knies and a 2nd under threat that we'll just give the pick to Boston and Philly gets a 2028 1st instead? We get Landon DuPont for Knies and a 2nd, Philly gets Knies and a 2nd rather than a 2028 1st. Boston gets the 2028 1st

We aren't really sure if it'll be allowed. It's been discussed both by the media and on here. I think @Stephen made a thread on it.

Shortly after the season ended Friedman said with near certainty he doesn't think the NHL would allow it and would look into it and that Philly / Boston wanted clarity. Friedman can be a bit of a blowhard with the Leafs (remember the suspension stuff in years past?)

I can't remember if it was a tweet or an article but I think recently Link: someone said the NHL agreed that it's up to Toronto who gets the pick based on the conditions, but it wasn't clarified if that means Toronto could leverage that in a separate trade (for example: give us your 1st in 2027 for our 3rd in 2027 and we give the pick to you as a handshake agreement.)

Considering how the NHL is treating the Cassidy situation I think Toronto would have a strong case that they should be allowed to do this based on the conditions / language used. My assumption is that Toronto's 1st in 2027 would not in any way be allowed to be directly part of the trade and would have to be a handshake agreement. I supposed the team who doesn't get the pick could argue that's some form of collusion?

Edit: I don't see any issue with your scenario though. I assume Toronto would be allowed to trade for their own pick and obviously choose to pick if they want to use it.

 

[Stephen]

Florida could probably fix Nurse. Would not want to find out

Nurse would break Florida's cap structure and lower their team IQ, but add to their psychopathy as a group.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Nurse would break Florida's cap structure and lower their team IQ, but add to their psychopathy as a group.

Rodrigues and something for Nurse at like 6.5M?

No idea why Edmonton does it but wouldn't kill Florida.

 

[juicer4000]

Look, you don't understand taxation, jock taxes etc... that's fine. Google AI is not going to give you the answers you want. The difference is closer to 15% in most cases.

I never claimed to know, I was transparent about the math.
Can you explain the jock tax?

From my understanding it affects canadians differently then American based players. Ai says "the jock tax is a penalty not a benefit" that canadians get a tax credit for any state taxes they pay. Basically you pay full taxed on ontario 53% then you figure out how much jock tax you paid in the states, and they subtract that from what you owe cra.

 

[arso40]

That's my assessment. He played enough to gauge what he is, not necessarily what he will be. At any point did he look good as the 4c last year?
Groulx played 3c and drove play by my eye test, better then all the centers. Was that coaching/systems? It seemed like all the other centers stayed too high and weren't involved in the offense. Imo Tavares domi quillan roy laughton rarely were in deep forchecking. I thought groulx was involved, and was still back defending.
Im not implying groulx is good, just that when the team looked slow and uninterested hroulx was at least involved all over the ice.
both had terrible advanced stats, groulx played with terrible 3rd line wingers and against decent competition.
Quillan played with average 4th liners against mostly 4th lines. That's what I mostly base my opinion on

Yeah but I don’t think he should be a center behind domi play him with skilled players his skill set will show better

 

[juicer4000]

Have you watched much of the Marlies play?

Quillan is a better C than Groulx, who really is a winger. Quillan isn't a guy who should be relied on to be the 70% starting in the dzone, tied to guys like Pezzetta and Jarnkrok. To boot, we only saw him after the team had given up on life. Watch him on the Marlies, and you get a better understanding of him.

Groulx had some excitement joining the Leafs, and then went seven games to end the season without a point. I like the player though, and he might be someone to consider as a depth winger. As a left winger primarily, I'm not sure where that fits.

I do not watch many full marlies games out side of the playoffs. I watch a period here there through out the season. My opinion was based on play in the nhl.
Groulx played 3c and quillan played 4c. Like I said groulx had worse linemates for the spot in the lineup he played and he played much higher quality of competition.
Both players got hemmed in a lot. Groulx had 42% dzone starts vs quillan 38%
I think groulx plays a more professional game as of now, quillan is likely to be slightly better in a few years
Quillan played the most with lorentz and jarnkrok very average 4th liners.
Lol groulx just made 4-3 so there is also that, jk

 

[Canada4Gold]

We aren't really sure if it'll be allowed. It's been discussed both by the media and on here. I think @Stephen made a thread on it.

Shortly after the season ended Friedman said with near certainty he doesn't think the NHL would allow it and would look into it and that Philly / Boston wanted clarity. Friedman can be a bit of a blowhard with the Leafs (remember the suspension stuff in years past?)

I can't remember if it was a tweet or an article but I think recently Link: someone said the NHL agreed that it's up to Toronto who gets the pick based on the conditions, but it wasn't clarified if that means Toronto could leverage that in a separate trade (for example: give us your 1st in 2027 for our 3rd in 2027 and we give the pick to you as a handshake agreement.)

Considering how the NHL is treating the Cassidy situation I think Toronto would have a strong case that they should be allowed to do this based on the conditions / language used. My assumption is that Toronto's 1st in 2027 would not in any way be allowed to be directly part of the trade and would have to be a handshake agreement. I supposed the team who doesn't get the pick could argue that's some form of collusion?

Edit: I don't see any issue with your scenario though. I assume Toronto would be allowed to trade for their own pick and obviously choose to pick if they want to use it.

It's been well discussed that Toronto could leverage the 2 teams to try to get something extra out of the situation. "Give us a 2nd rounder and we'll pick you" situation. I don't recall anyone suggesting that Toronto try to leverage the situation to get the pick back until someone suggested it in the main board yesterday. "Give us our 1st back and we'll give you something better than a 2028 1st rounder, if you don't we'll pick the other team so you get the 2028 1st rounder" after winning the lottery. Obviously the Leafs don't want to be in that situation. But maybe they could slime their way into actually getting Dupont if that situation did occur.

 

[LeafEgo]

Someone on the trade board brought up an interest scenario on the Leafs get to choose which of Boston or Philly get their 2027 pick if it's top 10. Is there any way the Leafs could strong arm 1 of the teams into trading that pick back to them under the threat of "if you don't we'll just give it to the other team".

For example, Leafs win the lottery, pick is 1st overall. They go to Philly and say we'll trade you X package of assets for that pick. If Philly declines we give the pick to Boston and Philly is left with the 2028 unprotected 1st. Obviously X package of assets would have to be more valuable than our 2028 unprotected 1st otherwise Philly would have no incentive to agree, but I would imagine it would be quite a bit less than the value of 1st overall. How believable is the bluff for either team though. Philly probably won't believe we'll just give Boston 1st overall if they don't agree, and Boston would probably prefer that we give Philly the 1st overall pick rather than trade it back to us.

If we win the 2027 lottery and have to choose which team picks Landon DuPont. Is there any chance Philly would trade that pick back to us for Knies and a 2nd under threat that we'll just give the pick to Boston and Philly gets a 2028 1st instead? We get Landon DuPont for Knies and a 2nd, Philly gets Knies and a 2nd rather than a 2028 1st. Boston gets the 2028 1st

There's no open auction available, the return would have to be backdoor'd and baked into trades so there are significant constraints on the Leafs and what would get through league approval - Philly and Boston could cooperate as well and squeeze us.

If Toronto plays their cards right they could get something decent but it would likely be limited.

 

[Jmo89]

It's been well discussed that Toronto could leverage the 2 teams to try to get something extra out of the situation. "Give us a 2nd rounder and we'll pick you" situation. I don't recall anyone suggesting that Toronto try to leverage the situation to get the pick back until someone suggested it in the main board yesterday. "Give us our 1st back and we'll give you something better than a 2028 1st rounder, if you don't we'll pick the other team so you get the 2028 1st rounder" after winning the lottery. Obviously the Leafs don't want to be in that situation. But maybe they could slime their way into actually getting Dupont if that situation did occur.

Yeah, like you said if they offer a good enough package that Philly would actually accept it I would think it would function the same as if they never traded the pick in the first place.

I doubt it happens too, but it would be funny if the Leafs ended up McKenna and Dupont, Philly ended up with someone like Knies, and Boston ends up with a pick in the 10-15 range.

 

[juicer4000]

Yeah but I don’t think he should be a center behind domi play him with skilled players his skill set will show better

Both are ineffective. Domi does ok when playing 1c when matthews is out. But in a depth role domi is pretty irrelevant. I would be fine if its between the 2 to give either the chance but how about try making guys earn their spot, to say out right he shouldn't be behind domi is a bit of a stretch. Quillan played 20+ games he had opportunity to earn a bigger role but never showed the team a reason to give him more.

 

[phillipmike]

Someone on the trade board brought up an interest scenario on the Leafs get to choose which of Boston or Philly get their 2027 pick if it's top 10. Is there any way the Leafs could strong arm 1 of the teams into trading that pick back to them under the threat of "if you don't we'll just give it to the other team".

For example, Leafs win the lottery, pick is 1st overall. They go to Philly and say we'll trade you X package of assets for that pick. If Philly declines we give the pick to Boston and Philly is left with the 2028 unprotected 1st. Obviously X package of assets would have to be more valuable than our 2028 unprotected 1st otherwise Philly would have no incentive to agree, but I would imagine it would be quite a bit less than the value of 1st overall. How believable is the bluff for either team though. Philly probably won't believe we'll just give Boston 1st overall if they don't agree, and Boston would probably prefer that we give Philly the 1st overall pick rather than trade it back to us.

If we win the 2027 lottery and have to choose which team picks Landon DuPont. Is there any chance Philly would trade that pick back to us for Knies and a 2nd under threat that we'll just give the pick to Boston and Philly gets a 2028 1st instead? We get Landon DuPont for Knies and a 2nd, Philly gets Knies and a 2nd rather than a 2028 1st. Boston gets the 2028 1st

Let’s hope it never comes to that and we are giving Philly and Boston a late first (preferably 32nd overall) in 2027 and 2028.

I’ll even take 32nd overall in 2027 to Philly and 1st overall to Boston in 2027 as it means we won the cup.

 

[Canada4Gold]

There's no open auction available, the return would have to be backdoor'd and baked into trades so there are significant constraints on the Leafs and what would get through league approval - Philly and Boston could cooperate as well and squeeze us.

If Toronto plays their cards right they could get something decent but it would likely be limited.

If Toronto traded Knies for their 1st rounder back after winning the lottery what's the league gonna do? Tell Philly they're not allowed to value Knies more than the first overall pick so it has to be collusion? This isn't a fantasy league with commissioner who vetos trades they deem unfair. It's a legal trade and would clearly go through.

Whether Philly would believe we'll give Boston the 1st overall pick if they declined is another question. But if the strong-arming worked the league wouldn't do anything. It would look like a normal trade.

 

[Trapper]

Someone on the trade board brought up an interest scenario on the Leafs get to choose which of Boston or Philly get their 2027 pick if it's top 10. Is there any way the Leafs could strong arm 1 of the teams into trading that pick back to them under the threat of "if you don't we'll just give it to the other team".

For example, Leafs win the lottery, pick is 1st overall. They go to Philly and say we'll trade you X package of assets for that pick. If Philly declines we give the pick to Boston and Philly is left with the 2028 unprotected 1st. Obviously X package of assets would have to be more valuable than our 2028 unprotected 1st otherwise Philly would have no incentive to agree, but I would imagine it would be quite a bit less than the value of 1st overall. How believable is the bluff for either team though. Philly probably won't believe we'll just give Boston 1st overall if they don't agree, and Boston would probably prefer that we give Philly the 1st overall pick rather than trade it back to us.

If we win the 2027 lottery and have to choose which team picks Landon DuPont. Is there any chance Philly would trade that pick back to us for Knies and a 2nd under threat that we'll just give the pick to Boston and Philly gets a 2028 1st instead? We get Landon DuPont for Knies and a 2nd, Philly gets Knies and a 2nd rather than a 2028 1st. Boston gets the 2028 1st

I don’t see why they would do that. I think whoever doesn’t get the pick in 2027 gets a full unprotected pick in 2028. I’d take that chance.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don’t see why they would do that. I think whoever doesn’t get the pick in 2027 gets a full unprotected pick in 2028. I’d take that chance.

Leafs can't move up in the lottery in 2028 if they move up in 2027. You would take a unprotected 2028 pick that has very little chance to be a top 2 pick over Knies and a 2nd? I guess it depends on how this season goes. I would only take 2 prospects this year over that package. Not taking Knies and a 2nd because you want 3rd overall when you could easily end up with 10th+ overall seems dumb to me but maybe it's not.

The exact package is irrelevant anyway. There's a gap between 1st overall 2027 guaranteed and unprotected 2028 pick. You offer them something in that gap for 1st overall. If they say no you threaten to give the pick to the other team leaving them with less. You end up winning. They end up winning. The 3rd team who doesn't do that trade "loses" by getting the 2028 pick instead of 1st overall or that package

 

[Menzinger]

The question really becomes, what do you need, and how are you going to utilize a Maccelli, or a Robertson.

Do you need a pass first guy, or a shoot first guy?

Maccelli had more Points/60 than Robertson, and had a higher expected GF%.

In any mock lineup I've made, I've had neither in my lineup.

Maccelli in a top 6 role was fairly productive offensively, we scored 28 goals while he was on the ice. Outside of the top 6, we scored 9 goals while he was on the ice. I don't see a path where he's a regular top 6 player for us next year, so I don't think he should be in consideration at all.

We need some better defensive players, and more bite... Maccelli isn't great at either...that's probably being kind.

Robertson, if you don't draw up a plan to regularly get him PP2 opportunities to shoot the puck, you are wasting him. That guy getting two PP goals all season is gross incompetence by the org.

The other challenge is left shots, vs. right shots... Our top three left shots are Knies, McKenna and Cowan... so we've got that to balance out as well.

I don't see a path where we don't try and upgrade the roster here somehow. Maccelli in a bottom six is a waste.. Robertson you are going to need the right linemates, and plan to use him.

I think Maccelli is maybe traded for a conditional late pick at the draft otherwise may not be qualified. And I think Robertson is traded by July 1st for whatever they can get otherwise he's not qualified or they just go to arbitration

I'll be surprised if either guy is still a Leaf by September

 

[Fogelhund]

I think the Leafs could get away with a trade like rights to Niemela for a 2nd or 3rd to guarantee who gets the pick in 2027.

Or something like Grebenkin for the rights to Niemela. Basically something for the rights to a guy who never plays in NA again. It looks almost legit…

 

[Menzinger]

There's no open auction available, the return would have to be backdoor'd and baked into trades so there are significant constraints on the Leafs and what would get through league approval - Philly and Boston could cooperate as well and squeeze us.

If Toronto plays their cards right they could get something decent but it would likely be limited.

Though worth noting the league let teams make side arrangements with expansion teams to avoid certain players didn't get selected in exchange for picks/prospects

 

[nuck]

I think Maccelli is maybe traded for a conditional late pick at the draft otherwise may not be qualified. And I think Robertson is traded by July 1st for whatever they can get otherwise he's not qualified or they just go to arbitration

I'll be surprised if either guy is still a Leaf by September

Have you actually seem something suggesting they wouldn't qualify him? I know he is a top 6 style guy without a top 6 spot once McKenna gets here but does that mean they would just let an asset fly away? Going into a year with $20M+ in cap space they can't find $4.1M? It seems like a lot of dislike for a couple of players that is sort of disconnected from their real impact on the cap space or from the lineup of talent they are potentially blocking. Not saying this is your idea because I am seeing the same things posted quite a bit. Not qualified, especially when you have the cap space kind of screams scrub talent to me. Maybe I have my beer goggles on but are these two guys scrubs?