GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - Training camp approaches

[4thline]

What about 3, today it appears we most likely won't be able afford him like we slowly could not afford Hyman as the season wore on.

A poor cost benefit analysis dressed up in foresight's coat.

 

[Stephen]

Well, that checklist would have been 50/50 on Barrie/Ceci. We were definitely on the edge. Then there were definitely reasons for being there (start under Babs/ defensive injuries) that contributed to being there, but on the other side the team had laid some real eggs and managements faith in them had been publicly shaken. But with the rest of them is was the right call. In 18,19 and 21 we were a top team that choked/lost, not a seller.

This is a tired talking point that really doesn't hold water with anyone that really follows our prospect pool. We had a lean draft this summer, but the cupboards are well still stocked. Next year is looking lean, but pulling a Sandin/SDA and Hirvonen/Niemela sequence changes that in a hurry, and we're 10 months out.

Organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role. Using Boston as an example, guys like McAvoy and Carlo were allowed to steep in their roles alongside guys like Chara and Krug before the two older guys were allowed to walk. I think it’s one thing to replace Bogosian with Sandin and Liljegren and give them time to work themselves into the league. It’s another to give Sandin PP1 minutes and not expect significant growing pains. (While trying to become stronger contenders simultaneously). We simply haven’t given the kids the reps yet for them to jump from 7th, 8th on the org chart to suddenly fill in for the 1st D role.

 

[axlrose87]

I would love to see Reilly traded to Seattle.
At this point, it is quite clear we will not be able to pay him so it is time to strike now. Before training camp.
Get all parties involved and work out a contract extension with Seattle (close to his home) and get some assets in return.
Mark giordano would be a decent replacement for the year (with the necessary salary retention) and the additional assets that would come with him would help us in the future.
I really don’t know what the trade would look like but essentially:
Reilly for Giordano + picks and prospects.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role. Using Boston as an example, guys like McAvoy and Carlo were allowed to steep in their roles alongside guys like Chara and Krug before the two older guys were allowed to walk.

That's a really weird example, because McAvoy was pretty much immediately plugged into a top-pairing role.

 

[4thline]

I would love to see Reilly traded to Seattle.
At this point, it is quite clear we will not be able to pay him so it is time to strike now. Before training camp.
Get all parties involved and work out a contract extension with Seattle (close to his home) and get some assets in return.
Mark giordano would be a decent replacement for the year (with the necessary salary retention) and the additional assets that would come with him would help us in the future.
I really don’t know what the trade would look like but essentially:
Reilly for Giordano + picks and prospects.

I was campaigning for something like this last season and into the expansion draft, but Francis' handling of the draft kind of nixed it IMO. If they had duplicated the Knights asset gathering they would have had the assets, but as is they simply don't (assuming that they wouldn't move Beniers)

 

[mydnyte]

That's a really weird example, because McAvoy was pretty much immediately plugged into a top-pairing role.

when it's Chara on the other side, it helps a little, and he didnt get the top defensive matchups all the time, he was played, but, protected

 

[Dekes For Days]

when it's Chara on the other side, it helps a little, and he didnt get the top defensive matchups all the time, he was played, but, protected

He was given significant responsibility very fast, and as a 19-20 year old. I'm not sure how that is bringing somebody along slower than, for example, plugging 22-year old Sandin into Rielly's spot next to Brodie in a year.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Man this forum is weird. There's literally no stat that Barzal is better in but for some reason a bunch of people are just parroting 'Barzal is better than Tavares" without any real argument of any kind

Even without his regular left winger for more than half the season, Barzal was only two goals and three assists behind JT. He also had a better +/-, more ES goals, and a better shooting %.

In the playoffs, Barzal played 19 games this year, and JT has only played 13 in all three seasons here. In 19 games, Barzal has six goals and eight assists (0.74 ppg) even +/-, with a 13.6 shooting %. JT in 13 games has four goals and four assists (0.62 ppg), is -8, with an 8.9%.

Just a few of the more common stats.

 

[mydnyte]

He was given significant responsibility very fast, and as a 19-20 year old. I'm not sure how that is bringing somebody along slower than, for example, plugging 22-year old Sandin into Rielly's spot next to Brodie in a year.

Sandin is still too weak, and Brodie, while solid defensively isnt Chara, and cant physically intimidate anyone either.
I also think McAvoy is a bit overrated, as Boston's entire team structure and play style compliments their defense.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Sandin is still too weak, and Brodie, while solid defensively isnt Chara, and cant physically intimidate anyone either.

I'm not suggesting plugging Sandin into Rielly's role to be the solution. The statement was that "organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role", and then Boston and McAvoy was used as an example of this, even though it is an example of the exact opposite.

 

[Mugzy97]

Even without his regular left winger for more than half the season, Barzal was only two goals and three assists behind JT. He also had a better +/-, more ES goals, and a better shooting %.

In the playoffs, Barzal played 19 games this year, and JT has only played 13 in all three seasons here. In 19 games, Barzal has six goals and eight assists (0.74 ppg) even +/-, with a 13.6 shooting %. JT in 13 games has four goals and four assists (0.62 ppg), is -8, with an 8.9%.

Just a few of the more common stats.

Nothing like a good small sample size

 

[Mugzy97]

It would be a colossal failure to lose Rielly for nothing.

Nah, I’m on board to keep him as an own rental and go for it.

 

[Stephen]

That's a really weird example, because McAvoy was pretty much immediately plugged into a top-pairing role.

I'm not suggesting plugging Sandin into Rielly's role to be the solution. The statement was that "organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role", and then Boston and McAvoy was used as an example of this, even though it is an example of the exact opposite.

With adult supervision from a Norris winner, team captain and future Hall of Famer for 3 seasons in Zdeno Chara providing physical support, guidance and mentorship every moment they're out there on the ice and between shifts on the bench. Who would Rasmus Sandin be leaning on, T.J. Brodie? Come on.

 

[Dekes For Days]

With adult supervision from a Norris winner, team captain and future Hall of Famer for 3 seasons in Zdeno Chara providing physical support, guidance and mentorship every moment they're out there on the ice and between shifts on the bench. Who would Rasmus Sandin be leaning on, T.J. Brodie?

Sounds like you think Chara is a very remarkable player. But your statement was that "organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role", and your example was an organization who plugged a recent NHL promotion into a similar role. It's not the greatest example.

I don't think Sandin is the plan to immediately replace Rielly, if it comes to that, but if he had a great year this year, it's not as crazy as you make it sound. You don't need a future hall of famer to utilize your prospects, and Brodie is a veteran defenseman (who has played next to a Norris winner) capable of mentoring a younger player. In this scenario, Sandin would be stepping into a smaller role than McAvoy, as an older player, after accumulating NHL experience.

 

[Stephen]

Sounds like you think Chara is a very remarkable player. But your statement was that "organizations typically don’t plug in a recent NHL promotion into Rielly’s role", and your example was an organization who plugged a recent NHL promotion into a similar role. It's not the greatest example.

I don't think Sandin is the plan to immediately replace Rielly, if it comes to that, but if he had a great year this year, it's not as crazy as you make it sound. You don't need a future hall of famer to utilize your prospects, and Brodie is a veteran defenseman (who has played next to a Norris winner) capable of mentoring a younger player. In this scenario, Sandin would be stepping into a smaller role than McAvoy, as an older player, after accumulating NHL experience.

I provided a pretty clear follow up elaboration on McAvoy and Chara in relation to how young players are brought along in these roles. McAvoy was apprenticing on a top pair with a top poring defenseman. Clearly Sandin wouldn’t benefit from having that kind of mentorship or play time if he’s assuming Rielly’s job right away and wouldn’t be set up for success.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Nothing like a good small sample size

Playoffs are always small sample sizes, especially where the Leafs are concerned. Are you looking for 100 playoff games to make a comparison? Our guy's will never make that number.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Nothing like a good small sample size

Not my fault we don't manage to play in more playoff games!

If we're talking about who is better, as opposed to who used to be, how much more that one year do you think is relevant? I was being nice to JT by including three years of playoffs.

In any event, I wasn't necessarily saying Barzal is better, although I think in many ways he is, but just refuting the statement "there's literally no stat that Barzal is better in".

 

[Mugzy97]

Playoffs are always small sample sizes, especially where the Leafs are concerned. Are you looking for 100 playoff games to make a comparison? Our guy's will never make that number.

Or just don’t use playoff stats to compare players?

 

[All Mod Cons]

Or just don’t use playoff stats to compare players?

Well that's weird. Only use regular season stats to compare players?

We'll never know which players are good when the games matter.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I provided a pretty clear follow up elaboration on McAvoy and Chara in relation to how young players are brought along in these roles. McAvoy was apprenticing on a top pair with a top poring defenseman. Clearly Sandin wouldn’t benefit from having that kind of mentorship or play time if he’s assuming Rielly’s job right away and wouldn’t be set up for success.

McAvoy was in that role because he deserved that role, not because they needed Chara to babysit him. Rielly is still here. If Sandin was assuming Rielly's role in this scenario, it would be the 2022-2023 season. As I mentioned, I doubt that is the plan. If Rielly leaves, he will likely be replaced in UFA or by trade. However, if Sandin excels and earns a top-4 role, then they're not going to stagnate him just because they don't have a Chara. Plenty of successful organizations have plugged young players and recent NHL promotions into top-4 or even top-pairing roles, and been just fine.

 

[Fogelhund]

McAvoy was in that role because he deserved that role, not because they needed Chara to babysit him. Rielly is still here. If Sandin was assuming Rielly's role in this scenario, it would be the 2022-2023 season. As I mentioned, I doubt that is the plan. If Rielly leaves, he will likely be replaced in UFA or by trade. However, if Sandin excels and earns a top-4 role, then they're not going to stagnate him just because they don't have a Chara. Plenty of successful organizations have plugged young players and recent NHL promotions into top-4 or even top-pairing roles, and been just fine.

Usually a young D man, who comes into this league and excels, has an experienced veteran D man, who helps guide them, and teach them how to succeed in the NHL. This doesn't need to be a Chara. Brodie and Muzzin are two such D-men, who can help a younger guy, learn the NHL game, and reach their potential. I'm not suggesting that Sandin, or Liljegren be partnered with these two, but they are two vets on our squad. I don't know if partnering with Dermott, for either of these guys, is the key to success for them.

Bottom line, you want a veteran D man, to pair with your young players... They don't need to be Chara, just good defensively, though some physicality helps (but isn't necessary).

 

[notDatsyuk]

Or just don’t use playoff stats to compare players?

I also used regular season stats, and the results were about the same.

And I personally think the playoffs are more important, and are where the better players (have to) excel.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This doesn't need to be a Chara. Brodie and Muzzin are two such D-men, who can help a younger guy, learn the NHL game, and reach their potential.

That's kind of the point though. In this theoretical scenario where Sandin takes that role in 2022-2023, Sandin would have an experienced veteran defenseman beside him.

 

[fahad203]

McAvoy was in that role because he deserved that role, not because they needed Chara to babysit him. Rielly is still here. If Sandin was assuming Rielly's role in this scenario, it would be the 2022-2023 season. As I mentioned, I doubt that is the plan. If Rielly leaves, he will likely be replaced in UFA or by trade. However, if Sandin excels and earns a top-4 role, then they're not going to stagnate him just because they don't have a Chara. Plenty of successful organizations have plugged young players and recent NHL promotions into top-4 or even top-pairing roles, and been just fine.

Some points are valid but it helps when you have Chara protecting you and guiding you. In addition, Boston team has a lot of good players like Bergeron, Krejeci who are good defensive players
In addition, it's nice to have a goalie who can bail you out and not to mention a culture of responsible hockey

So it's easy to plug in a D, who mind you I think is a bit underrated because he's not flashy. But to your point, he would have been good anyways, beause he's just good

A lot of organizations just play their young kids. I hate the idea of Detroit model where you over marinate a young player in AHL

 

[Stephen]

Some points are valid but it helps when you have Chara protecting you and guiding you. In addition, Boston team has a lot of good players like Bergeron, Krejeci who are good defensive players
In addition, it's nice to have a goalie who can bail you out and not to mention a culture of responsible hockey

So it's easy to plug in a D, who mind you I think is a bit underrated because he's not flashy. But to your point, he would have been good anyways, beause he's just good

A lot of organizations just play their young kids. I hate the idea of Detroit model where you over marinate a young player in AHL

The other part of the equation is Sandin isn't McAvoy, so by the time you're trying to draw some kind of equivalency that Brodie can provide similar mentorship and physical protection as Chara, we would be rolling into a scenario with a worse mentor and worse mentee.

The point isn't whether Sandin can make it or not, it's what kind of support he has when he gets burned on the PP for a SH or stripped of a puck for a key goal like we saw in the playoffs. Because if he stumbles and there isn't a guy who he can lean on, you're basically asking for a crisis in confidence.