GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - The Madness Continues

[dubplatepressure]

How do the Leafs afford him?

many comp lunches.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

So you think these owners are going to vote to spend more money for little to no return?

Ticket prices increase in the playoffs, do you have any idea what the gate revenue for getting to the finals would be like in Toronto? Not to mention the merchandising. That's a massive return.

 

[Dreakmur]

Ticket prices increase in the playoffs, do you have any idea what the gate revenue for getting to the finals would be like in Toronto? Not to mention the merchandising. That's a massive return.

And there’s no guarantee you get that…

 

[Mad hatter]

So Bell or Rogers can’t offer leaf players endorsement deals because they own the team correct?

 

[613Leafer]

Before any one of those guys signed their deals, they weren't close to Marner when he signed his, and even further from Matthews. Makar might be the best defenseman in the league right now, but even then he got about as much as Mitch should have gotten. Only Pasta of those F is better, and only Ehlers is close.

Gaudreau finished 6th in league scoring in his 2nd season. Marner after 3 years didn't have a single top 10 finish, and that was while playing with much better players than Gaudreau got to play with.

Yea, for guys like Ehlers, you're extrapolating a bit because Marner was definitely more proven than Ehlers when he signed. A few other guys in addition to Gaudreau who were similarly proven to Marner at the time of signing were Draisaitl, Tarasenko, Aho, etc, and their contracts were all substantially better. Tarasenko finished 10th in scoring in the last year of his ELC while playing on a defensive team with worse linemates, Draisaitl finished 8th in league scoring at age 21 (granted, while largely playing with McDavid), and Aho put up 30 goals and 83 points as a two-way centre playing with worse linemates.

 

[justashadowof]

Tatar was a healthy scratch for most of Montreal's playoff run, correct? Why in the world would you even entertain that? It's getting comical at this point.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

And there’s no guarantee you get that…

So? There's no guarantee of profit in any business. Companies take gambles all the time. I'm sure the bean counters at MLSE could easily justify an additional 20 million in salary to increase gate revenue, merchandising etc.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

So Bell or Rogers can’t offer leaf players endorsement deals because they own the team correct?

That would definitely be considered cap circumvention.

 

[justashadowof]

The third stage of grief: Bargaining. i.e. "couldn't they find some quasi-legal way of paying under the table?"

 

[Coachcorner]

Just acquire Kessel

In fact sire, if we didn't have so much scoring power already and guys who ain't the best defensively... we should target him. But, right now, he would make our team worse. We need a soulja, who can hit some and D some. Getting inside people's skins. Hard. We ain't need kessel right now. Maybe some other time. We might get a ritchie, saad, or some otha sucka.

 

[Morgs]

Gaudreau finished 6th in league scoring in his 2nd season. Marner after 3 years didn't have a single top 10 finish, and that was while playing with much better players than Gaudreau got to play with.

Yea, for guys like Ehlers, you're extrapolating a bit because Marner was definitely more proven than Ehlers when he signed. A few other guys in addition to Gaudreau who were similarly proven to Marner at the time of signing were Draisaitl, Tarasenko, Aho, etc, and their contracts were all substantially better. Tarasenko finished 10th in scoring in the last year of his ELC while playing on a defensive team with worse linemates, Draisaitl finished 8th in league scoring at age 21 (granted, while largely playing with McDavid), and Aho put up 30 goals and 83 points as a two-way centre playing with worse linemates.

There are major differences wkth Gaudreau & Tarasenko though, with them being significantly older at the time of their deals. Not to mention they were signed at a time where RFA's getting even the Drai deal was unprecedented. Pasta, Ehlers, and Nylander were all very similar pre-contract.

Aho to me was a bit of a shock, but that was about the Marner sweet spot.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Tatar was a healthy scratch for most of Montreal's playoff run, correct? Why in the world would you even entertain that? It's getting comical at this point.

I mean part of their downfall in the finals was that they couldn't score goals, and had one of their leading scorers of the past 3 seasons sitting in the pressbox.

Our downfall in the last 3 games against Montreal was that we couldn't score goals either, Tatar can help with that.

I still think you need to upgrade the top LW spot with a better player (Still think Kerfoot moves if we add another center cheap), but if he's your 2LW you could do a lot worse.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Wonder what people think of this (Change the layout a bit)

Christian Dvorak + 4th
(4.5)
for
Alexander Kerfoot + Travis Dermott + 2nd
(5)

Tavares - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Dvorak - Marner
Bunting - Kampf - Mikhayev
Simmonds - Spezza - Brooks


Notes:
Line 1 : Load up the top line - Tavares and Matthews share the dot, takes pressure off JT and can be a creative passer off the wall and in tight areas. (Down the middle he can struggle when flatfooted)
Line 2 : Dvorak and Marner reunited, and it creates a fun line. Robertson can be the trigger man (He's a bit of a hound dog when at his best)
Line 3 : Looks like a a nice shutdown line; speed, gritty, puck possession will give teams fits.
Line 4 : If Simmonds is healthy; there's no reason this vet line can't have positive impact.

*If we move Engvall (and added space from trade) - It leaves us with more wiggle room to sign a 4th liner and/or insurance Dman (Aprx 2.5m ? )

 

[Coachcorner]

Tatar was a healthy scratch for most of Montreal's playoff run, correct? Why in the world would you even entertain that? It's getting comical at this point.

It's not happening sire. We is getting another one.

 

[CDN24]

That's not how taxes work. And endorsements do not count. They are money paid for work done outside of your NHL contract.

The tax thing, is not just an excuse.

Consider this:

Tampa's core:
Point - 9.5
Kuch - 9.5
Vasi - 9.5
Stamkos - 8.5
Hedman - 7.875
Total cap hit: 44.875
Every single one considered team friendly at the time of signing

AAV required to pay the same players the same in net for Toronto:
Point - 12.75
Kuch - 12.75
Vasi - 12.75
Stamkos - 11.5
Hedman - 10.5
Total cap hit: 60.25m

... But yeah, just an excuse

No tax state teams have a clear advantage. And it really becomes noticeable when the Team is good, or great like Tampa, and can leverage themselves as a destination

It is more of a hit on the lower paid players who need most of their salary now. For the star players the tax disadvantage is a myth. A good tax accountant and a decent plan can make the taxes almost equal or ultimately better in Canada. The two main vehicles are signing bonus and RCAs (retirement compensation arrangements) that are only available to Canadian players. The signing bonus works well for guys like Matthews who are not Canadian. while the RCA works wonders for a guy like Marner.

Matthews earned 15.9M last year, 700K salary and 15.2M signing bonus. As an Arizona resident he will pay Canadian taxes on the 700K. on the 15.2M he will pay a 15% withholding tax to Canada. Then it gets taxed in Arizona at Arizona rates but he will get a credit there for the 15% he paid to Canada. Arizona has a minimal state tax 4.5% I think. should he choose to live in Florida he could effectively enjoy same tax as the Tampa players except for the Canadian tax on the 700K.

What can Marner who is Canadian do? Harder to justify being an American resident as he is not from there. Don't worry he can get creative too. his compensation last year was 15M. 14.3 in signing bonus and 700K in salary. He can remain a Canadian resident but set up an RCA that will allow him to put up to half his salary in a RCA where it is not taxed until he withdraws the money- think super RRSP. So on half his salary he pays Cdn tax lets say 50% to make the math easy. so 50% but on half the salary so so far 25% is gone. The other 50% can be invested in The RCA earning income with no taxation now. Once he retires he can withdraw the money and be taxed on it where he lives. The withdraws if he is outside Canada will be subject to a 25% withholding that work like Matthews 15% above- he gets credit for them on his tax where he is paying tax.

Marner in theory could defer tax on 50% of his contract about 33M. That will sit tax deferred until he withdraws it. He could move to a low tax jurisdiction (say Florida) and withdraw it. In that case he pays Florida tax on half his salary and Cdn tax on 1/2. If he wants to really benefit he moves to a no tax Jurisdiction like Monaco and then collapses his RCA. He pays only the 25% withholding so his tax rate is 50% on 1/2 and 25% on the other for a average tax rate of 37.5% - a bit lower than the Tampa guys.

The RCA is only available to players playing in Canada. It also allows him to invest 1/2 his salary tax deferred. He is still only paying 25% on all the investment earnings in the RCA in the above scenario. So really the high paid players in Canada can have their cake and eat it too.

The NBA has does not allow RCA's as it gives the Raptors too much of an advantage over the American based teams.

 

[Coachcorner]

Wonder what people think of this (Change the layout a bit)

Christian Dvorak + 4th
(4.5)
for
Alexander Kerfoot + Travis Dermott + 2nd
(5)

Tavares - Matthews - Nylander
Robertson - Dvorak - Marner
Bunting - Kampf - Mikhayev
Simmonds - Spezza - Brooks


Notes:
Line 1 : Load up the top line - Tavares and Matthews share the dot, takes pressure off JT and can be a creative passer off the wall and in tight areas. (Down the middle he can struggle when flatfooted)
Line 2 : Dvorak and Marner reunited, and it creates a fun line. Robertson can be the trigger man (He's a bit of a hound dog when at his best)
Line 3 : Looks like a a nice shutdown line; speed, gritty, puck possession will give teams fits.
Line 4 : If Simmonds is healthy; there's no reason this vet line can't have positive impact.

*If we move Engvall (and added space from trade) - It leaves us with more wiggle room to sign a 4th liner and/or insurance Dman (Aprx 2.5m ? )

No. Just pure no. Tavares is our second line center and stays there, for life. As long as he is the captain and here. This will never change in the big picture. You might see a shift here and there, when the game is ending and we is chasing, but in a big picture, no. Never. So you will have to do it all over again sire.

 

[Dreakmur]

So? There's no guarantee of profit in any business. Companies take gambles all the time. I'm sure the bean counters at MLSE could easily justify an additional 20 million in salary to increase gate revenue, merchandising etc.

There is a guarantee of profit in the NHL with a salary cap….

 

[Leaf Fans]

And there’s no guarantee you get that…

There are few guarantees for anything in life.

 

[SprDaVE]

Tatar was a healthy scratch for most of Montreal's playoff run, correct? Why in the world would you even entertain that? It's getting comical at this point.

I don't think anyone is looking to give him a long-term expensive contract. To ignore his production wouldn't be smart over his benching in the playoffs. Sometimes players do very well but go through a tough stint, then they switch environments and they thrive once again. He's been a good player for awhile.

I don't see any Leafs and Tatar links, so you'll probably get your wish.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

It is more of a hit on the lower paid players who need most of their salary now. For the star players the tax disadvantage is a myth. A good tax accountant and a decent plan can make the taxes almost equal or ultimately better in Canada. The two main vehicles are signing bonus and RCAs (retirement compensation arrangements) that are only available to Canadian players. The signing bonus works well for guys like Matthews who are not Canadian. while the RCA works wonders for a guy like Marner.

Matthews earned 15.9M last year, 700K salary and 15.2M signing bonus. As an Arizona resident he will pay Canadian taxes on the 700K. on the 15.2M he will pay a 15% withholding tax to Canada. Then it gets taxed in Arizona at Arizona rates but he will get a credit there for the 15% he paid to Canada. Arizona has a minimal state tax 4.5% I think. should he choose to live in Florida he could effectively enjoy same tax as the Tampa players except for the Canadian tax on the 700K.

What can Marner who is Canadian do? Harder to justify being an American resident as he is not from there. Don't worry he can get creative too. his compensation last year was 15M. 14.3 in signing bonus and 700K in salary. He can remain a Canadian resident but set up an RCA that will allow him to put up to half his salary in a RCA where it is not taxed until he withdraws the money- think super RRSP. So on half his salary he pays Cdn tax lets say 50% to make the math easy. so 50% but on half the salary so so far 25% is gone. The other 50% can be invested in The RCA earning income with no taxation now. Once he retires he can withdraw the money and be taxed on it where he lives. The withdraws if he is outside Canada will be subject to a 25% withholding that work like Matthews 15% above- he gets credit for them on his tax where he is paying tax.

Marner in theory could defer tax on 50% of his contract about 33M. That will sit tax deferred until he withdraws it. He could move to a low tax jurisdiction (say Florida) and withdraw it. In that case he pays Florida tax on half his salary and Cdn tax on 1/2. If he wants to really benefit he moves to a no tax Jurisdiction like Monaco and then collapses his RCA. He pays only the 25% withholding so his tax rate is 50% on 1/2 and 25% on the other for a average tax rate of 37.5% - a bit lower than the Tampa guys.

The RCA is only available to players playing in Canada. It also allows him to invest 1/2 his salary tax deferred. He is still only paying 25% on all the investment earnings in the RCA in the above scenario. So really the high paid players in Canada can have their cake and eat it too.

The NBA has does not allow RCA's as it gives the Raptors too much of an advantage over the American based teams.

That's a lot of extra hoops to jump through to get a lower tax rate. Most players tend to live in the city they play in. Especially if they have a family.

 

[Magic Man]

Going with 7D in the NHL and 12 forwards. The Leafs according to capfriendly have 2.96M in cap space to spend on the mystery LW.

Ritchie like Bunting is only 25, so he should be heading into prime years and he fits in age wise with the core. He's more of a middle six winger. Capable of 40-50 points, but could also come in the 30+ point range. They were after Foligno and this is his closest comparable and my preference. I'd even give him 4 years at 2.5M, cheap cost certainty with the league cap uncertainty for a player in his prime that plays an aggressive game.

I think Tomas Tatar gets a deal worth much more than that or else he'd be a great addition.

 

[Leaf Fans]

The third stage of grief: Bargaining. i.e. "couldn't they find some quasi-legal way of paying under the table?"

The third stage is anger and bargaining for example if we just trade Marner or
If only we had a new GM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner after 3 years didn't have a single top 10 finish, and that was while playing with much better players than Gaudreau got to play with.

It's funny that you bring up outliers, and then scramble to utilize some of the biggest outlier situations in the cap era, like Gaudreau, to argue your point.

Gaudreau had better linemate quality through his pre-signing period than Marner, for the record. He was also considerably older through his pre-signing period, essentially starting at the same time Marner was finishing his ELC, which impacts what a certain production level represents moving forward. He also had red flags in his underlying metrics, did not PK, was bad defensively, and hit a rather mediocre production level despite an unsustainably inflated OISH%. He was also one of the very rare 10.2c RFAs, meaning he didn't have the leverage points that other RFAs have (offer sheets, arbitration).

A few other guys in addition to Gaudreau who were similarly proven to Marner at the time of signing were Draisaitl, Tarasenko, Aho

None of those guys were close to Marner at time of signing their contracts.

 

[CDN24]

That's a lot of extra hoops to jump through to get a lower tax rate. Most players tend to live in the city they play in. Especially if they have a family.

In Matthews (any non Canadian really) case its easy because it is as simple as the signing bonus. The Monaco example for Marner is extreme yes, but I would move to Monaco for a year to get an extra $8M. Even without residency shenaigans the value to be able to invest 1/2 you salary on a tax deferred basis is massive.

The signing bonus allows a guy to be taxed where he lives and not where he works so ultimately for a player paid almost all in bonus, the location of the team doesn't mean anything.

 

[justashadowof]

I don't think anyone is looking to give him a long-term expensive contract. To ignore his production wouldn't be smart over his benching in the playoffs. Sometimes players do very well but go through a tough stint, then they switch environments and they thrive once again. He's been a good player for awhile.

I don't see any Leafs and Tatar links, so you'll probably get your wish.

Another example of bargaining looking to a declining player who didn't deliver in the playoffs for a team that delivered in the playoffs.