Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2022 - Off-season

[Sypher04]

Mitch is definitely better defensively and most likely the better player but Johnny got Hart consideration this year. Not sure how much Mitch did.

I’m definitely not looking to disparage Gaudreau at all. He’s a very good player, who had a great season

 

[SeaOfBlue]

He’ll probably get <10M which is sickening as a Leafs fan. Even if he gets 10-10.5M fin UFA it’s disgusting to think the Leafs have been paying Marner 10.9 for 3 years and he’ll be looking for a decent raise in another 3.

Marner got 13.38% last time. He should be a fair bit lower than that on his next deal since he has now been appeased from Lou ripping him off on his ELC, and if he is serious about winning, he won't get any kind of raise (since I doubt he takes a pay cut). Matthews got 14.64% for 5 years. It would have been 16% or whereabouts for 8 years.

Let's run on an assumption that we are negotiating on an 85 mill cap. Matthews would get 13.6 mill on an 8 year deal if he gets 16%; so 2 mill raise. Marner gets almost 13% if he doesn't take a raise which is already more than fair for him. Let's say 8.25 mill for Nylander since the cap will be a little bit higher when he signs than when Fiala signed (although that number could easily go higher if Nylander keeps putting up PPG seasons).

That does not even take into account any kind of discount those guys would be willing to take to improve our competitive odds, considering the top players of other teams have pretty much all routinely done so (assuming they were paid fairly on their first deals), and our GM is not exactly rushing out to overpay mediocre depth guys with their money like many others are. The percentages above is market value for 8 year deals (they would obviously be higher for 7 year deals on the open market, but they also get less money).

 

[Americanadian]

Actually, that's just another opinion. Mitch was better defensively and does PK. Gaudreau scored more, but only because he played more games.

Marner is better defensively but Gaudreau was better overall this year.

 

[Americanadian]

Marner got 13.38% last time. He should be a fair bit lower than that on his next deal since he has now been appeased from Lou ripping him off on his ELC, and if he is serious about winning, he won't get any kind of raise (since I doubt he takes a pay cut). Matthews got 14.64% for 5 years. It would have been 16% or whereabouts for 8 years.

Let's run on an assumption that we are negotiating on an 85 mill cap. Matthews would get 13.6 mill on an 8 year deal if he gets 16%; so 2 mill raise. Marner gets almost 13% if he doesn't take a raise which is already more than fair for him. Let's say 8.25 mill for Nylander since the cap will be a little bit higher when he signs than when Fiala signed (although that number could easily go higher if Nylander keeps putting up PPG seasons).

That does not even take into account any kind of discount those guys would be willing to take to improve our competitive odds, considering the top players of other teams have pretty much all routinely done so (assuming they were paid fairly on their first deals), and our GM is not exactly rushing out to overpay mediocre depth guys with their money like many others are. The percentages above is market value for 8 year deals (they would obviously be higher for 7 year deals on the open market, but they also get less money).

I'd be fine with those assuming 85M cap. Marner at 13.4% or 11.4M is hard to swallow.

 

[kb]

Marner is better defensively but Gaudreau was better overall this year.

Not sure anyone can say that conclusively.

Looking at points only? For 82 games Mitch would be up around 111 points. Or 4 points short of Gaudreau, all while playing a vital role on the PP and PK.

Not sure why that makes Gaudreau's season any better than Marner's season.

 

[Americanadian]

Posting this to re-iterate the point that Marchment is a unicorn UFA. 1 breakout year where he was 0.87 P/G, best defensive winger in the league and he hits and fights more than any Leafs regular.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Wouldn't mind taking a run at Colin White for the bottom 6 now that he's been bought out by the sens. If he can stay healthy, I think he could be a potential 40 pt, two way guy.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

A lot of money for someone that never took the next step and isn't worth anywhere near what he was making, mostly due to injuries. His buyout was very cheap this year. If the Sens had waited another year, the buyout was much bigger because of his age.

Now that he's a free agent, the red flags are gone. It's low risk medium reward.

He is a nice project for someone, but IDK where he fits here. Is he a Nylander/Tavares winger? Is he a full time center (he is not great on draws)? Does he play on the shutdown line or on the offense line? Can we develop him as a PKer or is he just a PP option?

Then we have the other concerns. Injuries obviously. He never looked like a good skater, especially in terms of speed. He doesn't look like he has any particularly amazing trait to offer besides being a hard worker.

He has to be cheap. White's prestige, age, and one good season which is 3 seasons removed now is the only thing going for him. If he comes cheap, then we can try him out in various places similar to what we did with Vesey. Hopefully unlike Vesey, he finds a place where he can truly excel, or else he ends up on the trade market/waiver wire by mid-season and we have one of our prospect wingers ready to take over his spot.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Worth noting Cody Ceci was on EDM's top pair last playoff.

Tyson Barrie was also in the top 4 there, and brought value on the PP.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Posting this to re-iterate the point that Marchment is a unicorn UFA. 1 breakout year where he was 0.87 P/G, best defensive winger in the league and he hits and fights more than any Leafs regular.

He can get overpaid on some other team.

 

[OVO16]

Leafs will definitely take a run at Marchment. Need to clear some salary first. Holl and Kerfoot need to be gone.

Our competitors for Marchment will be New Jersey and Anaheim

 

[Americanadian]

Explain why he isn’t?

I don’t think there is a very meaningful gap between their production and Marner is better defensively while also penalty killing, being 3 years younger and playing in a much better division.

So you make a claim then deflect explanation?

Not sure anyone can say that conclusively.

Looking at points only? For 82 games Mitch would be up around 111 points. Or 4 points short of Gaudreau, all while playing a vital role on the PP and PK.

Not sure why that makes Gaudreau's season any better than Marner's season.

I am not looking at points. I am looking at WAR. Per EvolvingHockey Gaudreau had 5.5 WAR this year to Marner's 3.9. Marner's played a good role on the PK but his PK impact was 72nd among all forwards this year. In terms of overall defense Marner ranked 48th in defensive impact this year whereas Gaudreau ranked #1 in offensive impact.

You need to remember who Lindholm and Tkachuk are/were prior to that line coming together. Tkachuk averaged 0.88 P/G over the 3 years before this year where he played with Gaudreau and jumped almost 0.4 P/G to 1.27 P/G. Lindholm played the bulk of his minutes with Gaudreau in 2018-19 and again this past season where he was 0.98 P/G over those 2 years. He is a career 0.58 P/G outside of that.

Marner played with Matthews and 28 year old Tavares the last 4 years.

 

[kb]

Leafs will definitely take a run at Marchment. Need to clear some salary first. Holl and Kerfoot need to be gone.

Our competitors for Marchment will be New Jersey and Anaheim

They won't be.

 

[Dreakmur]

I said better offensive player. And their career stats show Kerfoot is superior to Kampf in that regard. Which is what was being talked about. Nowhere did I say Kerfoot is a better center than Kampf.

He's a better offensive player, but he's not a centre. You put Kerfoot ahead of Kampf in the lineup, which indicates you think he's a better player. Seems pretty counterproductive to play a worse player more than a better player.

 

[Nylanderthal]

NJ is not happy with their goaltending and I believe they will be players for Husso. Our hope is that we can sell him on winning in Toronto because if it is us or Sakic, I go Sakic if I am him.



I doubt Gaudreau gets more than Marner.

The reported offer on the table is $76m over 8 from Calgary which is 9.5m. If he goes to market in order to get $76m over 7 years is 10.85m so technically less than Marner, but by 50 grand.

 

[Americanadian]

The reported offer on the table is $76m over 8 from Calgary which is 9.5m. If he goes to market in order to get $76m over 7 years is 10.85m so technically less than Marner, but by 50 grand.

Let's revisit this in 10 days. I'd be ecstatic as a Leafs fan to see him get paid close to Marner.

 

[Kurtz]

Posting this to re-iterate the point that Marchment is a unicorn UFA. 1 breakout year where he was 0.87 P/G, best defensive winger in the league and he hits and fights more than any Leafs regular.

I think Marchy has upped his value enough to where he's out of our price range...but I would LOVE to sign Raffl to a Kampf deal. That guy is everything you want out of a bottom 6 winger, and is slept on.

 

[Americanadian]

I think Marchy has upped his value enough to where he's out of our price range...but I would LOVE to sign Raffl to a Kampf deal. That guy is everything you want out of a bottom 6 winger, and is slept on.

The Nick Paul contract probably pushed him into the 4s. I'm in agreement on Raffl at <1M but at that price I'd think he'd chose to stay in Dallas. 1.5Mx2 is a little rich in my opinion considering he's been a negative defensive player historically but turned it around this year presumably to stay in the league.

 

[pspot]

what happened with Colin White, I thought he was pretty solid, Maybe signing him cheap after a buyout and motivated would be intriguing

 

[WTFMAN99]

what happened with Colin White, I thought he was pretty solid, Maybe signing him cheap after a buyout and motivated would be intriguing

Heard there's Montreal connection there.

 

[Fogelhund]

Leafs will definitely take a run at Marchment. Need to clear some salary first. Holl and Kerfoot need to be gone.

Our competitors for Marchment will be New Jersey and Anaheim

He's going to get $5-6 mil. How are we going to afford that?

 

[Lightsol]

Good luck with that. I think you might be over rating Sandin, not to mention Florida is not the team that is going to help you put out our tire fire between the pipes.

Someone would have to give the Florida management the Stafford Smythe treatment...

 

[ToneDog]

Let's revisit this in 10 days. I'd be ecstatic as a Leafs fan to see him get paid close to Marner.

Might do a Tavares and take 9.5mx7 to play close to home.

 

[ErnieLeafs]

Victor rask would be another for a defensive shutdown player.

Vagner/stats as cheap leaders.

Toronto has plenty of options.

I like Rask, too. Plays with some jam, pretty fearless player.

Edit: Am I thinking of the right player? Plays a decent forecheck, will play in the net-front area?

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Adding Nichushkin and Puljujarvi would solidify our top 9 and make it the best in the NHL.