I wonder if Samsonov would get moved this summer. If we are taking a chance on a goalie I'd rather him over Gibson.
Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline
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Americanadian
Registered User
This week's armchair GM:
Trades:
Nylander+Mrazek for Tomasino+Myers+17th OA(Ideally McGroarty)
A variation of this was proposed in this thread (Tomasino+Sissons+17th for Nylander+Holl). Tomasino's rookie season profiles similarly to Cirelli's but he has also put up comparable numbers to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. He could be anything from Cirelli to Thomas but there's a lot to like here and he saves 6M on the cap for the next 2 years. Nashville brings in a 34 goal/80 point winger who was PPG in the past 2 playoffs to try to make one last run with their aging core - Nashville takes on Mrazek as a backup to Saros who played too many games this season and was injured for the playoffs. Leafs buyout Myers and take the 616k cap credit this season and 633k cap hit next year. Nashville takes on 7.5M net salary which leaves them with roughly 14M to sign Forsberg, Kunin, Trenin.
Sandin for Grans
LAK have a glut or RHD prospects and they need NHL ready LHD. Leafs have too many NHL caliber LHD and one RHD in the system (Niemela). Seems like an easy trade.
Robertson+Holl for Harley
Dallas has 1 RHD signed for next year (Hakanpaa). Klingberg is reportedly not coming back. Holl slides in as 2RD. Dallas needs goal scoring - Robertson scores goals (not yet at the NHL level but maybe eventually). Dallas is also trying to sign Robertson's brother, presumably long term, and acquiring Nick would in theory help a long term deal get done. Leafs have too many NHL caliber LHD. They need LHD that will be NHL ready in 2 years that are willing to play in the AHL (not Sandin). Harley plays 1-2 years in the AHL and joins the Leafs once Muzzin and Gio's contracts are up.
Niemela+Kerfoot+WPG 2022 3rd for Garland
This is the one deal where I don't think the Leafs give up enough. Garland is a perfect fit alongside Tavares. He has been an elite play driver at 5v5 for the past 3 years (better advanced numbers than Nylander). He is signed for ~5M for 4 more years and Vancouver apparently wants to clear cap. Kerfoot is sent as a cap casualty but Vancouver can flip him at the deadline or in the off season for more assets depending on what direction they go. Niemela fills an organizational need for Vancouver as they don't have a legitimate RHD prospect in the system (maybe it's Myrenburg).
Signings
Rodrigues 3Mx3 - strong play driver who put up actual goals/assists this year when he played in the top 6. Also a RS C.
Marchment 4Mx4 - highest WAR/60 in the NHL this year. His numbers obviously sky rocketed and this may look bad in 1 year but his underlying numbers were so good you'd think he's a safe bet. He was also 3rd in the league in points/60 at 5v5 behind Marner/Gaudreau.
Campbell 4.5Mx3 - Not a huge fan of this one but stick with what works.
Wedgewood 2Mx2 - Could be any depth goalie but Wedgewood played 34 games last year which the Leafs will probably need.
Engvall 1.75Mx1 - Mirtle's guess, I'm fine with this.
Kase 1.75Mx1 - Would rather not do this but again this is Mirtle's guess.
Liljegren 1.5Mx2 - Mirtle guessed 900k, I'd rather lock him up for 2 and time the expiration around Brodie/Muzzin
Lyubushkin 1.5MX3 - Hakanpaa deal
Lineup:
Cap hit: 80.6M without extras.
This team has a strong U21 core of LW-Knies/C-Tomasino/RW-McGroarty/LD-Harley/RD-Grans to backfill as contracts expire (not to mention the 25 OA this year, Steeves, Kral, Douglas etc.). Matthews/Liljegren/Tomasino's raise comes from Muzzin/Brodie expiring in 2 years. Marner's raise comes from Tavares expiring. Tomasino works his way up to 2C over the next 3 years. The middle class of Garland/Marchment/Rodrigues is signed for 4 more years (Rodrigues 3).
Trades:
Nylander+Mrazek for Tomasino+Myers+17th OA(Ideally McGroarty)
A variation of this was proposed in this thread (Tomasino+Sissons+17th for Nylander+Holl). Tomasino's rookie season profiles similarly to Cirelli's but he has also put up comparable numbers to Nylander in the AHL at the same age. He could be anything from Cirelli to Thomas but there's a lot to like here and he saves 6M on the cap for the next 2 years. Nashville brings in a 34 goal/80 point winger who was PPG in the past 2 playoffs to try to make one last run with their aging core - Nashville takes on Mrazek as a backup to Saros who played too many games this season and was injured for the playoffs. Leafs buyout Myers and take the 616k cap credit this season and 633k cap hit next year. Nashville takes on 7.5M net salary which leaves them with roughly 14M to sign Forsberg, Kunin, Trenin.
Sandin for Grans
LAK have a glut or RHD prospects and they need NHL ready LHD. Leafs have too many NHL caliber LHD and one RHD in the system (Niemela). Seems like an easy trade.
Robertson+Holl for Harley
Dallas has 1 RHD signed for next year (Hakanpaa). Klingberg is reportedly not coming back. Holl slides in as 2RD. Dallas needs goal scoring - Robertson scores goals (not yet at the NHL level but maybe eventually). Dallas is also trying to sign Robertson's brother, presumably long term, and acquiring Nick would in theory help a long term deal get done. Leafs have too many NHL caliber LHD. They need LHD that will be NHL ready in 2 years that are willing to play in the AHL (not Sandin). Harley plays 1-2 years in the AHL and joins the Leafs once Muzzin and Gio's contracts are up.
Niemela+Kerfoot+WPG 2022 3rd for Garland
This is the one deal where I don't think the Leafs give up enough. Garland is a perfect fit alongside Tavares. He has been an elite play driver at 5v5 for the past 3 years (better advanced numbers than Nylander). He is signed for ~5M for 4 more years and Vancouver apparently wants to clear cap. Kerfoot is sent as a cap casualty but Vancouver can flip him at the deadline or in the off season for more assets depending on what direction they go. Niemela fills an organizational need for Vancouver as they don't have a legitimate RHD prospect in the system (maybe it's Myrenburg).
Signings
Rodrigues 3Mx3 - strong play driver who put up actual goals/assists this year when he played in the top 6. Also a RS C.
Marchment 4Mx4 - highest WAR/60 in the NHL this year. His numbers obviously sky rocketed and this may look bad in 1 year but his underlying numbers were so good you'd think he's a safe bet. He was also 3rd in the league in points/60 at 5v5 behind Marner/Gaudreau.
Campbell 4.5Mx3 - Not a huge fan of this one but stick with what works.
Wedgewood 2Mx2 - Could be any depth goalie but Wedgewood played 34 games last year which the Leafs will probably need.
Engvall 1.75Mx1 - Mirtle's guess, I'm fine with this.
Kase 1.75Mx1 - Would rather not do this but again this is Mirtle's guess.
Liljegren 1.5Mx2 - Mirtle guessed 900k, I'd rather lock him up for 2 and time the expiration around Brodie/Muzzin
Lyubushkin 1.5MX3 - Hakanpaa deal
Lineup:
Cap hit: 80.6M without extras.
This team has a strong U21 core of LW-Knies/C-Tomasino/RW-McGroarty/LD-Harley/RD-Grans to backfill as contracts expire (not to mention the 25 OA this year, Steeves, Kral, Douglas etc.). Matthews/Liljegren/Tomasino's raise comes from Muzzin/Brodie expiring in 2 years. Marner's raise comes from Tavares expiring. Tomasino works his way up to 2C over the next 3 years. The middle class of Garland/Marchment/Rodrigues is signed for 4 more years (Rodrigues 3).
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ULF_55
Moderator
Garland career high 52 points.
5'10", 165 lbs.
Take out Niemela.
Add SDA.
Americanadian
Registered User
Garland career high 52 points.
5'10", 165 lbs.
Take out Niemela.
Add SDA.
I may be higher on him than most. His play driving is strong. He's was in the 96th percentile this year in EH's WAR model.
Bjorkstrand would also fit the bill of top 6 RW with 4 years of term at 5.4M. He is 6'0 - 177 lbs and has scored at a 30 goal/61 point/82 game pace the last 3 years.
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HomelessPepper
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2019
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I've been thinking Husso (3M?) + Comrie (2M?), if we can't bag Kuemper.
WTFMAN99
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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He's actually got a pretty decent one timer and you need that quick release sometimes to beat these goalies.
Also @Americanadian - Heiskanen plays RD for Dallas.
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also, Kerfoot is better than Garland and makes less $$ so take out everything, no deal
Garland career high 52 points.
5'10", 165 lbs.
Take out Niemela.
Add SDA.
kb
Registered User
- Aug 28, 2009
- 15,358
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Hindsight is great, but the fact remains he was worth it at the time and underachieved this season. It's not like the Leafs were the only suitor and were bidding against themselves.
Agreed - a new home won't be hard to find if they so choose.
Americanadian
Registered User
By what metric?
I did notice that on CapFriendly but they do have a hole at 2RD.
WTFMAN99
Registered User
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Yea they do, not sure Holl is the way to go about fixing it though either.
Heard chatter there could be a soft deal to be made between Dallas and Edmonton on Barrie to off-set loss of Klingberg's offense from the blueline.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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I don’t think he was worth it at the time either. Remember InGoal speculating on why the Leafs targeted Mrazek and they thought maybe there was an analytical angle where his play style matched the Leafs defensive environment. But just turns out they got caught flat footed and had to sign someone in the game of musical chairs.
Americanadian
Registered User
Holl was a throw in in the deal to fix a gap for 1 year. What do you think of Robertson for Harley from a Dallas perspective?
kb
Registered User
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So someone speculating on something they have no idea on means that they rushed to sign an inferior goalie to an inflated contract?
His numbers justified his contract at the time of signing. He just had one injury plagued year.
I’m honestly really curious as to what Dubas does to the goaltending. Campbell seems all but gone so who comes in?
Right before the trade was made official to San Jose I was really hoping the Leafs would land Kahkonen. As an RFA, maybe we’d still be able to pry him out of San Jose.
Other names include Blackwood, Husso, Samsonov and Georgiev. As much as I wouldn’t mind Gibson since he seems like the best goaltender potentially available, I doubt Dubas takes on that contract.
Right before the trade was made official to San Jose I was really hoping the Leafs would land Kahkonen. As an RFA, maybe we’d still be able to pry him out of San Jose.
Other names include Blackwood, Husso, Samsonov and Georgiev. As much as I wouldn’t mind Gibson since he seems like the best goaltender potentially available, I doubt Dubas takes on that contract.
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Americanadian
Registered User
Literally every number beyond their physical weight.
That's a very basic table. If you look at wins above replacement (WAR) Garland scores higher at 5v5 in offense and defense and overall WAR. The only place Kerfoot scores higher than Garland is on the PP and that's strictly because Garland is a negative on the PP. If you look beyond this season Garland has a better WAR the past 3 seasons.
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Kerfoot is almost never on the PP ...Kerfoot floats around every line wherever we need him, he is a very consistent and safe player who can play on any line and at any point in the game.
he is very good on the PK, and solid and responsible defensively
he is far cheaper than Garland also, which makes him far more valuable by a wide margin, not even considering his versatility, or how much his offensive numbers could go up on a weaker offensive team that could use him as a primary offensive threat rather than a fill-in.
we took an offense only player (when we got him) and turned him into defensive specialist
and you want to buy high on a guy who just had a career best season when he'd never hit 40 points before and has basically a $5mil cap hit that goes through when we need to re-up Matthews, Nylander, then Marner.
this is one of the worst contracts/players the leafs could ever take on, when we may consider moving Kerfoot only to free the LESSER cap hit he has, or we keep/deal him at the deadline, and his cap space helps us resign Bunting and Kampf who both need new contracts after next year.
...but, you'd rather lock in 5 mil for a career 40 point player for the next 4 seasons
LeafChief
Matthew Knies Enthusiast
Just listened to the most recent Leaf Report Podcast.
Jack Campbell
Jonas Siegel says Campbell's agent mentions they have spoken to the Leafs regularly but they have not yet spoken numbers.
Mirtle says he believes Campbell won't be back. Says other teams will offer him higher AAV and more years than the Leafs want to offer. Oilers, Red Wings, Devils mentioned.
Campbell wants to stay in Toronto (Siegel and Mirtle both mentioned this).
Leafs are looking at all options for goaltending. Looking at UFA + trade. Mirtle puts it at a 15% chance Campbell returns.
Goaltending Department
Mirtle wonders if the Leafs will build a goaltending department as other teams have done recently. A lot of teams simply have one goalie coach for NHL and one goalie coach for AHL (as the Leafs have done in recent years). He thinks the Leafs will be investing more in the goaltending department moving forward with more of a structure to it.
Semyon Varlamov
Mirtle and Siegel both think this is one of the likely options for the Leafs. Doesn't believe the trade cost will be very high. Isles looking to shake things up. Varlamov has 1 year at 5 million remaining on his contract. They think they would try to get the Islanders to retain on Varlamov (obviously this would come with an asset going to Isles)
Petr Mrazek
Discussed Chicago as a landing spot for Mrazek. Buffalo as well.
Mirtle believes he will be traded rather than bought out. They don't believe the Leafs have interest in buying out Mrazek.
Mirtle is very confident that Mrazek will be gone.
Engvall + Kase
Will be more difficult to sign these players than is being perceived. Leafs have to decide if they will be giving Kase a QO (dealine is July 11th)
Engvall probably easier to get done - more simpler arbitration case).
Going to arbitration with Kase is risky as he's a good player but is injury prone. 1.25 million is the QO amount. They speculate he could get as much as 2.5 million. Walk away amount of arb is 4.5 million so Leafs wouldn't be able to walk away.
They speculate Leafs may not qualify Kase and then try to re-engage him in free agency.
Denis Gurianov in Dallas got 2.9 million in arb (using him as a comparable).
Qualifying Offers
There may be many good players this year that aren't qualified.
Goalie Options
They believe Keumper will get 4 years x 5 million AAV.
Husso will 'get something silly'. 57 NHL games played. They thing a team will gamble on him. 27 years old.
Alex Kerfoot
Mirtle believes he would be undervalued by other teams. Low maintenance. Plays all three forward positions. Thinks the Leafs will want to keep him.
Justin Holl + Jake Muzzin
Mirtle believes Holl will be moved and Muzzin will stay. Mirtle thinks they will try to bring back Lyubushkin.
Muzzin looking solid in the playoffs is the reason he thinks they will keep him. He says he's not guaranteeing it but that's what he believes.
Jack Campbell
Jonas Siegel says Campbell's agent mentions they have spoken to the Leafs regularly but they have not yet spoken numbers.
Mirtle says he believes Campbell won't be back. Says other teams will offer him higher AAV and more years than the Leafs want to offer. Oilers, Red Wings, Devils mentioned.
Campbell wants to stay in Toronto (Siegel and Mirtle both mentioned this).
Leafs are looking at all options for goaltending. Looking at UFA + trade. Mirtle puts it at a 15% chance Campbell returns.
Goaltending Department
Mirtle wonders if the Leafs will build a goaltending department as other teams have done recently. A lot of teams simply have one goalie coach for NHL and one goalie coach for AHL (as the Leafs have done in recent years). He thinks the Leafs will be investing more in the goaltending department moving forward with more of a structure to it.
Semyon Varlamov
Mirtle and Siegel both think this is one of the likely options for the Leafs. Doesn't believe the trade cost will be very high. Isles looking to shake things up. Varlamov has 1 year at 5 million remaining on his contract. They think they would try to get the Islanders to retain on Varlamov (obviously this would come with an asset going to Isles)
Petr Mrazek
Discussed Chicago as a landing spot for Mrazek. Buffalo as well.
Mirtle believes he will be traded rather than bought out. They don't believe the Leafs have interest in buying out Mrazek.
Mirtle is very confident that Mrazek will be gone.
Engvall + Kase
Will be more difficult to sign these players than is being perceived. Leafs have to decide if they will be giving Kase a QO (dealine is July 11th)
Engvall probably easier to get done - more simpler arbitration case).
Going to arbitration with Kase is risky as he's a good player but is injury prone. 1.25 million is the QO amount. They speculate he could get as much as 2.5 million. Walk away amount of arb is 4.5 million so Leafs wouldn't be able to walk away.
They speculate Leafs may not qualify Kase and then try to re-engage him in free agency.
Denis Gurianov in Dallas got 2.9 million in arb (using him as a comparable).
Qualifying Offers
There may be many good players this year that aren't qualified.
Goalie Options
They believe Keumper will get 4 years x 5 million AAV.
Husso will 'get something silly'. 57 NHL games played. They thing a team will gamble on him. 27 years old.
Alex Kerfoot
Mirtle believes he would be undervalued by other teams. Low maintenance. Plays all three forward positions. Thinks the Leafs will want to keep him.
Justin Holl + Jake Muzzin
Mirtle believes Holl will be moved and Muzzin will stay. Mirtle thinks they will try to bring back Lyubushkin.
Muzzin looking solid in the playoffs is the reason he thinks they will keep him. He says he's not guaranteeing it but that's what he believes.
WTFMAN99
Registered User
- Jun 17, 2009
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I think by the time Suter is out, Harley takes over the top 4 minutes.
Grushnikov (sp?) - they took recently is looking alright though so maybe?
The point about Muzzin makes me think they’ll put Gio on the right side.
Sandin was already unhappy with his role last year.
Rielly-Gio
Muzzin-Brodie
Sandin-Liljegren
Or
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren
Sandin-Gio
SprDaVE
Moderator
- Sep 20, 2008
- 55,856
- 41,202
Pretty sure Leafs have had Jon Elkin as their goaltender evaluator/development for awhile (it's on their website that he is). Briere was the Leafs goaltender coach. I don't know if Elkin has multiple people work for him in that department. They'll probably add more/change it up but they've had a department for it for a bit.
Kuemper at 4 x 5M would be a very EASY signing for me. He's been consistently among the best on multiple teams. I would be all over that. He'll push 6M at the very least I think but if you can get him at 5M... I don't think there is much risk there. The only worry is regression and he hasn't had a lot of years with #1 work load.
Varlamov I'm not overly interested in unless it's dirt cheap. Being in the same position this time next year is not good. I think the Leafs should concentrate on a longer term option. He's 34 years old but he's been fairly consistent for awhile so he'd probably be good on the Leafs.
Mrazek to Chicago makes way too much sense.
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Almost every trade there sucks, and the one that doesn't Vancouver isn't doing
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
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InGoal Radio was referencing Clear Sight goalie analytics as to why the Leafs may have been especially interested in Mrazek. But it turned out it was just a panic free agent signing.
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