Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 Part XI - Deadline Looming

[dubplatepressure]

McBain would make a lot of sense. Could play as a 4C right now, and possibly a 3C next year, with Kampf moving down. Hope it happens.

 

[fahad203]

Whatever the Leafs do, I pray it works out better than Foligno.

And, Jason and Wayne are both nice stories, but nice stories don't win you rounds. I don't think either should be playing at all, ever.

Yeah great field good stories. But early performance should dictate who should play and how much

 

[SprDaVE]

Is it just me or that teams like Florida seem to have never ending cap space?

They only have 3.5M of cap space with 15 players signed for next season. Their core is signed up though so they'll be able to fill out with cheaper alternatives, maybe make a couple more cap clearing trades.

In 2 years though... That's when they are going to really feel it.

 

[SprDaVE]

McBain would make a lot of sense. Could play as a 4C right now, and possibly a 3C next year, with Kampf moving down. Hope it happens.

He's a great fit for us. He's also from Toronto. It feels like a great match...

It just feels like he'll sign with the Penguins though. They are really involved in these moves a lot.

 

[BertCorbeau]

He's a great fit for us. He's also from Toronto. It feels like a great match...

It just feels like he'll sign with the Penguins though. They are really involved in these moves a lot.

The Leafs need young centres and cost effective depth options. He checks both boxes.

I’d strongly consider a 2nd for him

 

[VanW27]

It doesn't feel like the Leafs are involved here... Just a gut feeling. We would have been linked by now.

Joey Anderson seems like a good base for that trade. Minnesota loves the local boys and Anderson is born and raised, played Minnesota HS, then went to Minn-Duluth.

Anderson doesn’t have a lot of hype or value attached to him but he put up significantly better D1 and D2 number than McBain and was in the NHL in his D3 while McBain had an ok college year before breaking out this year in his D4 as a senior.

More upside for McBain but I think the hype is a little artificially high due to his potential UFA status. Anderson could step right into an NHL lineup today no problem, I think the value is close, maybe a late pick or low end prospect thrown in from us.

 

[SprDaVE]

The Leafs need young centres and cost effective depth options. He checks both boxes.

I’d strongly consider a 2nd for him

Yeah... I'm not the most knowledgeable draft guy but I doubt you'll get a better valued player than McBain with that 2nd round pick. I would do it too.

Maybe Dubas/Leafs disagree though. They might need that 2nd round pick for a trade. Maybe McBain doesn't want to sign here either.

 

[Mickey Marner]

It's ironic to see teams like Florida and Carolina succeed with the sort of analytics-driven moneyball approach that we were being sold with the Dubas hiring. Even somewhat at our own expense with guys like Marchment, Andersen, Jarvis and to a lesser extent Verhaeghe.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Joey Anderson seems like a good base for that trade. Minnesota loves the local boys and Anderson is born and raised, played Minnesota HS, then went to Minn-Duluth.

Anderson doesn’t have a lot of hype or value attached to him but he put up significantly better D1 and D2 number than McBain and was in the NHL in his D3 while McBain had an ok college year before breaking out this year in his D4 as a senior.

More upside for McBain but I think the hype is a little artificially high due to his potential UFA status. Anderson could step right into an NHL lineup today no problem, I think the value is close, maybe a late pick or low end prospect thrown in from us.

This is a good bet. No waiver expemption, but Anderson is cheap and signed for a couple more years. With their Parise and Suter buyouts they'll need cheap bodies.

 

[Zybalto]

This is an example of the flaw of using analytics without understanding full context and concepts such as multicollinearity. He had 66% defensive zone starts matched against the top line of every opponent. That's what drove the results you've cited.

If you want these stats to be even remotely useful, you need to be measuring the delta between the stats you've shown and zone starts/quality of competition.

I'm certainly aware of the role he played but I think you are overestimating his role and even that role was too much for him.

Lowest Ozone start% just on the Habs D in the playoffs from that list:

1. Kulak: 34.29
2. Edmonson: 37.38
3. Weber: 41.51
4. Chiarot: 42.86
5. Petry: 45.92
6. Merill: 47.22

QoC wasnt the highest on the team either. (Weber, not even close)

The Habs themselves were one of the worst finals teams in quite some time getting carried by an amazing performance by Price and found themselves buried in defensive zone starts quite often. Chariot's defensive numbers were the worst on the team and one of the worst in the league.

He fared very poorly when compared against other "shutdown" D in the league, thats for sure. It's why I could run the same numbers and come with insanely positive results for a guy like Pelech who plays tougher minutes. He's an actual amazing defensive D though.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Florida have too many success story for it to be fluke. They know what to look for in player as to how it mesh with current team and it seem coach know how to lift player up and get most from them. After so much success it very weird seeing people say trade is mistake. Florida shown so far the player will perform exactly as they think. Leaf as well need to assume Chariot will perform as panthers expect and make sure they prepare properly for upgraded panthers.

What happen to days shayne corson shadow a player on the other team and make them inefficient. it has big effect. thats what panthers expect from chariot in playoff. just go out and be annoy to the top guys when they in the zone like he did for montreal.

Eye on dubas now how he will respond. If he doesn't respond then he agree team too flawed and better to make this re-tool year instead with the bottom 6 and d. Slowly slowly he seeing the build not nice. Already finished with his 4th line and wants complete new one and targeting player like Middleton.

 

[Sypher04]

Whatever the Leafs do, I pray it works out better than Foligno.

And, Jason and Wayne are both nice stories, but nice stories don't win you rounds. I don't think either should be playing at all, ever.

Spezza definitely has not been as effective this year as he was last

 

[nuck]

Yeah... I'm not the most knowledgeable draft guy but I doubt you'll get a better valued player than McBain with that 2nd round pick. I would do it too.

Maybe Dubas/Leafs disagree though. They might need that 2nd round pick for a trade. Maybe McBain doesn't want to sign here either.

Too bad but it seems like a steep ask for a guy that only learned to score goals in his senior year.. Maybe he is pro ready or maybe he is like the 19 year old Junior player that shreds a league of younger players. I have not seen 1 second of his game of course but he seems like a guy a playoff club might hope can step in and play today and if you have that hole to fill then a 2nd isn't much. Pittsburgh's Crosby/Malkin window is closing so this seems like a fit for them.

I think the Leafs 2nd might be used for someone they know can help them as you say. I believe KD may be waiting to see if there will be a couple more clubs throwing in the playoff towel before the deadline. BUT I am not certain the Leafs aren't in on McBain because it seems like when scribes offer stuff like this the interested parties change as the due date approaches. It's Dreger right? I don't think he has much of a Leaf pipeline.

 

[CDN24]

Is it just me or that teams like Florida seem to have never ending cap space?

It helps when your top 4 contracts make just under 30M and not just over 40M and those top contracts include a D man and a Goalie. Gets a little tougher next year when Barkov's extension at $10M kicks in.

 

[Sypher04]

I find myself really torn regarding what I want to see happen this deadline.

I mean it’s so muddy. There’s the obvious think with your heart angle where I want them to definitely acquire pieces to make a run. Then there’s the rational, but at what cost side.

I mean it’s been commonly written around here that we should just stand pat at this prices. And honestly, I respect that thought process, I don’t necessarily disagree. I’m not looking to overpay. But on the flip side of that, with Matthews and Marner playing the way they are playing, how do you not give them the help this team needs to try to go deep? Not only are they playing at all world levels, they’ve (knock on wood) both been fairly healthy. These are not givens we can just presume going into each playoff. Look at last year with Austons clearly bum wrist vs Montreal. Does anyone honestly believe a healthy Auston Matthews and we don’t find enough more offense to end that series in game 5 or 6?

Opportunities have to be seized when available, and sure we may spend assets we don’t get the ultimate payoff from, but I have to wonder if it’s more costly not to go for it.

 

[ER89]

Spezza definitely has not been as effective this year as he was last

to be fair, it's tough for any player, let alone a guy way past his prime to be effective with simmonds in tow. That guy is a useless hockey player.

 

[Sypher04]

It helps when your top 4 contracts make just under 30M and not just over 40M and those top contracts include a D man and a Goalie. Gets a little tougher next year when Barkov's extension at $10M kicks in.

Yep. Then the following season Huberdeau will be due his raise

 

[riffle]

to be fair, it's tough for any player, let alone a guy way past his prime to be effective with simmonds in tow. That guy is a useless hockey player.

Jason looked tremendous on PP1 when he got that 2-game stint a few months back. That shot of his is still top notch but outside of that I see Marleau, and I don't want to see Marleau. At least it won't cost a thing when Jason is put out to pasture.

As for Simmonds, after that wrist injury he's never been close to the same. Does Kyle have the stones to remedy the Wayne Train and boyhood model problem? I love Kyle for his thoughtful and compassionate approach to the human side of this business, but these are two gaping holes that need filling if we want to win a round. Would prefer guys with full tanks going full tilt opposed to two hangers on hoping to be along for a Cup run as callous as that sounds.

 

[LeafSteel]

Getting McBain would soften the blow and ease the pain of losing Adam Brooks twice…….

 

[Sypher04]

Jason looked tremendous on PP1 when he got that 2-game stint a few months back. That shot of his is still top notch but outside of that I see Marleau, and I don't want to see Marleau. At least it won't cost a thing when Jason is put out to pasture.

As for Simmonds, after that wrist injury he's never been close to the same. Does Kyle have the stones to remedy the Wayne Train and boyhood model problem? I love Kyle for his thoughtful and compassionate approach to the human side of this business, but these are two gaping holes that need filling if we want to win a round. Would prefer guys with full tanks going full tilt opposed to two hangers on hoping to be along for a Cup run as callous as that sounds.

I fully agree. It may sound callous but this is a results business and guys have to pull their weight

 

[Torontonian]

Whatever the Leafs do, I pray it works out better than Foligno.

And, Jason and Wayne are both nice stories, but nice stories don't win you rounds. I don't think either should be playing at all, ever.

I think the thing is if your trading for players at the deadline, it’s needs to be for skill rather then intangibles.

Agreed on Jason and Wayne, I think it’s fine to have Spezza in the lineup as he still can be an option as shooter on the 2nd unit and make a play on the 4th line, Simmons’s not so much.

 

[CDN24]

Yep. Then the following season Huberdeau will be due his raise

If cap doesn't go up Huberdeau may be sacrificed. That said next year they have a big hit for Yandle buyout 5.4M. That 5.4 plus Huberdeau's current 5.9 pays him but not sure you want to go long term big $$ on someone who will be 30 when the next contract starts. Win cup this year and trade Huberdeau at next deadline to recoup some draft assets. really seems like their window is this year and maybe next.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think the thing is if your trading for players at the deadline, it’s needs to be for skill rather then intangibles.

Agreed on Jason and Wayne, I think it’s fine to have Spezza in the lineup as he still can be an option as shooter on the 2nd unit and make a play on the 4th line, Simmons’s not so much.

Simmonds pretty much just brings toughness, and even that is inconsistent at this point.

Spezza at least wins draws and does fairly well on the PP. It is not much, but it is probably enough to keep him in the lineup if we don't need situational toughness.

Ideally, we get someone who can step in (i.e. Robertson, Abruzzese, Holmberg, etc. or someone external) and we just rotate Simmonds and Spezza.

 

[thusk]

Florida have too many success story for it to be fluke. They know what to look for in player as to how it mesh with current team and it seem coach know how to lift player up and get most from them. After so much success it very weird seeing people say trade is mistake. Florida shown so far the player will perform exactly as they think. Leaf as well need to assume Chariot will perform as panthers expect and make sure they prepare properly for upgraded panthers.

What happen to days shayne corson shadow a player on the other team and make them inefficient. it has big effect. thats what panthers expect from chariot in playoff. just go out and be annoy to the top guys when they in the zone like he did for montreal.

Eye on dubas now how he will respond. If he doesn't respond then he agree team too flawed and better to make this re-tool year instead with the bottom 6 and d. Slowly slowly he seeing the build not nice. Already finished with his 4th line and wants complete new one and targeting player like Middleton.

Florida is a good offensive team but defensivly its pretty hard.

Its fun to heard everybody saying florida is too good and toronto too bad defensivly defensivly and in net... panthers are not a better defensive team than toronto and bobrosvky never prove more than any leafs goalie than he can win in playoff with his sv % above 0.900 and his 3.24 gaa in career

Or last year heard panthers was very good against tampa when they allowed 24 goal in 6 games, so 4 goal by games. Only stl was worst..

 

[ShaneFalco]