GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

[SeaOfBlue]

I listened to the 32 thoughts podcast. The thinking is that Vancouver is weighing their options, finding out what extensions on may players might look like. They are also looking at building a strong team long term, and building from the D core out... so, they want a very good, young D back for Miller. The name that they threw out, was Byram as a potential long-term partner for Hughes. That seems to make sense for Vancouver, and Miller as a replacement for Kadri next year, before they have to really pay MacKinnon, makes sense for Colorado. I don't see how we enter that type of conversation, Sandin isn't quite at that level.

Some other thoughts... Nick Roberston - sees his brother's success, and he's tried too hard to succeed, wants it too much..

Max Comtois. Ducks are strong at LW, and Comtois, having had both hand surgery, and Covid this year, is the odd man out, despite previous success, and very well might be traded.

Jack McBain going to Free Agency is talk around the league. Minnesota may try and trade his rights, but not much of a market.

Talked about the Leafs quite a bit, around 42 minutes as well... perhaps worth a listen.

The Hot Stove Is Heating Up | Podcasts - Sportsnet.ca

So on there, they say the Leafs are one of the worst teams in the league against the rush right... IDK how many goals are scored off of the rush, but these are our goalies numbers in terms of rush chances against and rebound chances against (which is what your netfront play tries to prevent in addition to tips).

Out of 58 goalies who have played at least 750 all-strength minutes this year:

Rush Chances against: Campbell and Mrazek have the 13th and 14th fewest rush chances against (practically tied with Vasilevsky and Markstrom).
Rebound Chances against: Mrazek is 22nd in rebound chances against, and Campbell is 6th.

At ES (out of 58 who have played 600 ES minutes):
Rush Chances against: Mrazek is 9th, Campbell is 26th
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 8th, Mrazek is 24th.

Then I decided to look just since the start of 2022 when things started going downhill for our goalies. Out of 60 goalies who have played 275 minutes:

Rush Chances against: Mrazek has the 21st fewest rush chances while Campbell is 27th.
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 8th in rebound chances against, and Mrazek is 32nd.

At ES (out of 55 guys who have played 275 ES minutes):
Rush Chances against: Mrazek is 10th, Campbell is 30th.
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 5th, Mrazek is 32nd.

So in terms of absolute chances, the Leafs are nowhere near the bottom of the league in either category, at any point, at ES or otherwise. Now maybe there is something about the quality of those rush chances (i.e. they are a lot of odd-man, etc.) or rebound chances. I don't have the numbers for that, but I am not seeing a lot of the goalies' struggles coming from odd man rush chances anyways. In fact, we were probably worse with that in the earlier part of the season when Campbell was good. Rebound chances are often a result of their own doing as much as the defense.

If you want to cut down rush chances against, cut down some of the blind reads and overly aggressive pinches.

 

[thusk]

Fair point, but is he good enough aside from his physical game to really improve the team? Admittedly, Chiarot is never a guy I focused on when we played Montreal, I am mainly going off of his analytics.

Analytics dont tell everything of a hockey game. There are no stats to evaluate how player battle in front of the net to clear goalie vision, avoid deflection and give him some help to make stop. No stats to evaluate how hard player battle on rebound. Im a leafs fan from quebec so i also watched a lot of habs game, chiarot is probably the more consistent player. Youre always knows he gonna work hard every game and giving you every he can. He a good skater too so hes everything leafs need.

 

[Fogelhund]

So on there, they say the Leafs are one of the worst teams in the league against the rush right... IDK how many goals are scored off of the rush, but these are our goalies numbers in terms of rush chances against and rebound chances against (which is what your netfront play tries to prevent in addition to tips).

Out of 58 goalies who have played at least 750 all-strength minutes this year:

Rush Chances against: Campbell and Mrazek have the 13th and 14th fewest rush chances against (practically tied with Vasilevsky and Markstrom).
Rebound Chances against: Mrazek is 22nd in rebound chances against, and Campbell is 6th.

At ES (out of 58 who have played 600 ES minutes):
Rush Chances against: Mrazek is 9th, Campbell is 26th
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 8th, Mrazek is 24th.

Then I decided to look just since the start of 2022 when things started going downhill for our goalies. Out of 60 goalies who have played 275 minutes:

Rush Chances against: Mrazek has the 21st fewest rush chances while Campbell is 27th.
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 8th in rebound chances against, and Mrazek is 32nd.

At ES (out of 55 guys who have played 275 ES minutes):
Rush Chances against: Mrazek is 10th, Campbell is 30th.
Rebound Chances against: Campbell is 5th, Mrazek is 32nd.

So in terms of absolute chances, the Leafs are nowhere near the bottom of the league in either category, at any point, at ES or otherwise. Now maybe there is something about the quality of those rush chances (i.e. they are a lot of odd-man, etc.) or rebound chances. I don't have the numbers for that, but I am not seeing a lot of the goalies' struggles coming from odd man rush chances anyways. In fact, we were probably worse with that in the earlier part of the season when Campbell was good. Rebound chances are often a result of their own doing as much as the defense.

If you want to cut down rush chances against, cut down some of the blind reads and overly aggressive pinches.

Stats can tell us so much, but there is something there, that the stats we use, just don't tell the whole story. I don't know how to explain it, but I think it's something that we all see.

 

[Sypher04]

Analytics dont tell everything of a hockey game. There are no stats to evaluate how player battle in front of the net to clear goalie vision, avoid deflection and give him some help to make stop. No stats to evaluate how hard player battle on rebound. Im a leafs fan from quebec so i also watched a lot of habs game, chiarot is probably the more consistent player. Youre always knows he gonna work hard every game and giving you every he can. He a good skater too so hes everything leafs need.

Agreed. I think Chiarot could potentially really help this team in our own zone.

Maybe make a play for Schenn as well and combined with the trade for Lyubushkin you really change the compexion of this defense.

Rielly - Chiarot
Muzzin - Brodie
Schenn - Lyubushkin
Sandin - Liljegren
Dermott - Holl

Maybe even move one of Dermott or Holl and grab a middle 6 forward

 

[Peace Frog]

Honestly, we can’t really expect to cure our goaltending issues by way of trade. I believe that we need to focus squarely on adding to our D corps. Upgrading in that area can really make the difference, imo.

We really shouldn’t be too concerned with our offence. If they can’t produce, then there’s something really wrong there. I mean, there’s playoff-bound teams that would kill to have the firepower up front that we have!

 

[ACC1224]

Honestly, we can’t really expect to cure our goaltending issues by way of trade. I believe that we need to focus squarely on adding to our D corps. Upgrading in that area can really make the difference, imo. We really shouldn’t be too concerned with our offence. If they can’t produce, then there’s something really wrong there. I mean, there’s playoff bound teams that would kill to have the firepower up front that we have!

Without a goalie I’d do the opposite. Load up more offense and run and gun 100% of the time.

 

[Peace Frog]

Without a goalie I’d do the opposite. Load up more offense and run and gun 100% of the time.

They still say that defence wins championships, so if our last defender isn’t rock solid, having the boys shut the other team down, is our best option. We have the forwards to be able to run and gun already.

 

[Scion]

Obviously the Leafs have more problems than giving up point shots.

I don't see the Leafs forwards protecting anything, if you think dropping back and letting the opposition fire and pass without interruption tell me how well that is working?

It was working for most of the season. Are the tactics suddenly bad, or is it possible that the issues run deeper than that?

 

[ACC1224]

They still say that defence wins championships, so if our last defender isn’t rock solid, having the boys shut the other team down, is our best option. We have the forwards to be able to run and gun already.

I wasn’t really serious. I don’t recall a team ever winning anything without good goaltending

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Stats can tell us so much, but there is something there, that the stats we use, just don't tell the whole story. I don't know how to explain it, but I think it's something that we all see.

The thing is, that podcast was referring to a stat which said we were among the worst teams in the league on the rush.

Maybe there is a different stat which says we are, but certainly in terms of raw rush chances, we are absolutely not.

And even from the eye test, I am seeing a few more rush chances perhaps due to being an aggressive offensive team (i.e. a team with a lot of pinches from the defense, etc.) than teams that are more conservative with their defense. If Keefe is complaining about that, then don't be as aggressive. That is a choice he is making, and it is a choice that is paying off dividends more than it is hurting us right now.

I am also not seeing us getting man handled in puck battles or in front of the net either. Sure, there are times when it needs to be better. Tell that to literally every team in the NHL. I've seen us kill some of the most physical teams/players in puck battles.

I am mostly concerned that Keefe/Dubas genuninely think anything besides our goaltending is the root to the vast majority of our problems right now, and will think that we need to make a trade to address a non-issue that will either do nothing to help the team, or even make it worse than it already is. Normally I would have faith in them, but at the same time, Dubas thought Foligno was a good idea last year too (injury or otherwise) and Keefe continued to play Thornton over better players so I am not as confident as I was before they made those kind of desperate decisions based on misdiagnosed issues.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

They still say that defence wins championships, so if our last defender isn’t rock solid, having the boys shut the other team down, is our best option. We have the forwards to be able to run and gun already.

So pretty much you are suggesting doubling down on a strength to cover for a glaring weakness that is so bad that even having the best defense in the league likely won't solve it.

IDK. Maybe it will work. Although I don't think there is a single team that has won a championship based on defense unless you are counting your goaltender as your best defender. Our goalie is easily our worst defender right now. NHL players are too talented to get completely shut down. If you look at how the Leafs were shut out in the playoffs, it usually wasn't a result of the other team's defense preventing chances. Maybe they cut down a few, but their main job was giving their goalie the best chance to make save. Your goalie still needs to be able to make those saves, and our goalies simply are not.

We've had numerous games where our defense plays well enough that an average goalie shouldn't let more than 2 past them, yet our goalie gives up 4 or 5 easily. Fortunately our offense has been able to salvage some of those games. But that is our problem.

 

[ULF_55]

It was working for most of the season. Are the tactics suddenly bad, or is it possible that the issues run deeper than that?

When Campbell was playing like one of the best keepers on the planet?
He was playing like an all-star.
How they've played since he lost his edge is well documented, and it is no different with Mrazek.
Mrazek worst stats of his career.

 

[Sypher04]

If we aren’t dealing with goaltending then defense should be the priority of our deadline, and probably dealt with even if we do get a goalie.

Jack Campbell has been terrible. There’s no getting around that that, he has. But, even if a number of these deflections and other goals in around the net should be had, and there’s definitely been some, we still aren’t making teams pay a price to camp there. It simply has to be harder on them.

Another forward would be awesome but it’s a frill.

 

[thusk]

The thing is, that podcast was referring to a stat which said we were among the worst teams in the league on the rush.

Maybe there is a different stat which says we are, but certainly in terms of raw rush chances, we are absolutely not.

And even from the eye test, I am seeing a few more rush chances perhaps due to being an aggressive offensive team (i.e. a team with a lot of pinches from the defense, etc.) than teams that are more conservative with their defense. If Keefe is complaining about that, then don't be as aggressive. That is a choice he is making, and it is a choice that is paying off dividends more than it is hurting us right now.

I am also not seeing us getting man handled in puck battles or in front of the net either. Sure, there are times when it needs to be better. Tell that to literally every team in the NHL. I've seen us kill some of the most physical teams/players in puck battles.

I am mostly concerned that Keefe/Dubas genuninely think anything besides our goaltending is the root to the vast majority of our problems right now, and will think that we need to make a trade to address a non-issue that will either do nothing to help the team, or even make it worse than it already is. Normally I would have faith in them, but at the same time, Dubas thought Foligno was a good idea last year too (injury or otherwise) and Keefe continued to play Thornton over better players so I am not as confident as I was before they made those kind of desperate decisions based on misdiagnosed issues.

Last season and 2 year ago, it was andersen not enough good, this season campbell/mrazek... andersen left and looking good this season, hutchinson look horrible with us 2 years ago get traded to colorado and played on playoff and he didnt look that bad except game 7. How many time we still need to blame every goalie playing in toronto for every defensive problem leafs had since now close of last 20 years?

 

[ACC1224]

Last season and 2 year ago, it was andersen not enough good, this season campbell/mrazek... andersen left and looking good this season, hutchinson look horrible with us 2 years ago get traded to colorado and played on playoff and he didnt look that bad except game 7. How many time we still need to blame every goalie playing in toronto for every defensive problem leafs had since now close of last 20 years?

Andersen and Campbell have both cracked under the pressure of playing here. They are not the sole reason for the Playoff losses but they were certainly a reason. The backbreaking soft goals allowed were not the fault of the defense.

 

[kb]

Stats can tell us so much, but there is something there, that the stats we use, just don't tell the whole story. I don't know how to explain it, but I think it's something that we all see.

The problem is you tend to see what you are looking for whether it is truly there or not. This is where the eye test fails.

When you are a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

 

[Peace Frog]

If there was a goalie that was an excellent #1 out there, that we could actually get, I’d be all for it. Unfortunately, I don’t think there is. The way Campbell and Mrazek are playing, there are lots of keepers we could get that are an upgrade. However, there isn’t a playoff Price, or Vasilevskiy that we could bring in to be our saviour.

This is why I feel we need to hope that our goaltending improves and that we should focus on getting the best defenders we can get. Limit the chances even more by getting good shot blockers and defenders that know how to clear the puck from in front of the net and get the puck out of our zone efficiently.

 

[thusk]

Andersen and Campbell have both cracked under the pressure of playing here. They are not the sole reason for the Playoff losses but they were certainly a reason. The backbreaking soft goals allowed were not the fault of the defense.

Last 3 season, 0.922 % , 0.936%, 0.931 %.
In career in toronto andersen is at 0.916

To give you a exemple, in carreer in pittsburgh fleury is a 0.915 since 2012 and 0.920 in vegas.... like i said its ewsy put all the blame on goalie

 

[Peace Frog]

People laugh at the idea of getting Chara. I find that odd, tbh. He’s still a beast who is an absolute warrior in the playoffs. He’ll definitely clear out the front of the net and won’t let anyone take any liberties with his teammates.

No doubt he’s not the Chara of old, but it’s undeniable that he would give us a tonne of poise and experience on that third pairing. You go big on Chychrun and shore up the bottom pairing with Chara.

 

[Avilaj07]

As much as people are against it, Chiarot is exactly the type of defenseman we need. If he could be had for a 2nd + prospect then I'll be all for it.

Rielly-Brodie
Chiarot-Liljegren
Sandin-Lyubushkin
Dermott

Use Kerfoot+Holl+Prospects+Picks to upgrade top 6.

 

[ACC1224]

Last 3 season, 0.922 % , 0.936%, 0.931 %.
In career in toronto andersen is at 0.916

To give you a exemple, in carreer in pittsburgh fleury is a 0.915 and 0.920 in vegas.... like i said its ewsy put all the blame on goalie

You either quoted me by mistake or didn't understand my post at all. This really has nothing to do with what I posted.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Last 3 season, 0.922 % , 0.936%, 0.931 %.
In career in toronto andersen is at 0.916

To give you a exemple, in carreer in pittsburgh fleury is a 0.915 and 0.920 in vegas.... like i said its ewsy put all the blame on goalie

It is one thing to blame the goalie for everything.

It is another when your goalie is at the bottom of the league when your defense is still performing well.

I think it is fair (not just easy) to place the blame at the feet of your goaltending when your goaltending is the one that deserves the blame. It is easy to blame the defense for everything too, as we have been doing for the past decade +. Except it is not fair to place the blame at the feet of defenders who have been excellent the almost the entire year and pretend like they are the reason why our goaltenders struggle to make routine saves and can't be expected to do anything beyond that.

 

[Sypher04]

As much as people are against it, Chiarot is exactly the type of defenseman we need. If he could be had for a 2nd + prospect then I'll be all for it.

Rielly-Brodie
Chiarot-Liljegren
Sandin-Lyubushkin
Dermott

Use Kerfoot+Holl+Prospects+Picks to upgrade top 6.

if Muzzin is gonna be out, we could do it without moving Kerfoot which would definitely be my goal. Good penalty killer, solid offensively when he plays with other skilled players, one of our better performers the past 2 playoffs. Also provides us added center flexibility if, god forbid, we lost one of our top 2 centres again in the playoffs

 

[Cor]

plz

 

[Avilaj07]

if Muzzin is gonna be out, we could do it without moving Kerfoot which would definitely be my goal. Good penalty killer, solid offensively when he plays with other skilled players, one of our better performers the past 2 playoffs. Also provides us added center flexibility if, god forbid, we lost one of our top 2 centres again in the playoffs

Nothing against Kerfoot but he's exactly what we already have too much of. This team is filled with players who all play the same way. You can put anyone on the second line and they would get points. At his cap hit, he just doesn't fit on this team anymore. As much as it sucks to say it, we need a Hyman on that second line and the only player on our roster like that is Bunting. If we could find another player with that style of play for the second line then I believe you see JT and Nylander come back to life.