GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

[kb]

Add of a guy like chiarot can change a lot of thing like :

- you dont have to put sandin and/or liljegren in your line up. So unstead of 3 unpredictable dman defensivly, youre only still with 1 in your line up
- if both of sandin and liljegren are out, you dont have to protect those 2 kid, so you can protecting your team from rielly defensive issues by reducing his defensive responsabilities.
3- so you can concentrate yourself by using rielly on the most offensive situation as you can and using it more if you trailing.
4- if you taking a lead, you can raise muzzin, brodie, chiarot, holl/lyubushkin ice time and reduce rielly ice to give you best chance possible to keep your lead.

1 top 4 dman can change everything in a team

Chiarot is NOT a top-4 D. And he's not better than anyone you are taking out of the lineup.

 

[Scion]

When are they allowed to be? When's the magical age or experience needed?

They are producing more than well enough both defensively and offensively. Nothing suggests they deserve to sit going into the playoffs.

There is no set time, and for all I know they never justify that level of ice time. All I know for certain is that they aren't top 4 D on a contending team today, and because of Lybushkin's play I can't see them both on the bottom pairing.

 

[SprDaVE]

There is no set time, and for all I know they never justify that level of ice time. All I know for certain is that they aren't top 4 D on a contending team today, and because of Lybushkin's play I can't see them both on the bottom pairing.

What makes them not Top 4 D's on a contending team, especially Liljegren? I completely disagree but maybe I'm missing something that shows they are out of their depth.

Seems like the stats support my eye test. Liljegrens season so far:

 

[Cor]

What makes them not Top 4 D's on a contending team, especially Liljegren? I completely disagree but maybe I'm missing something that shows they are out of their depth.

Seems like the stats support my eye test. Liljegrens season so far:

Sure that’s impressive, but he made a mistake that one game I watched and I can’t get over it.

Lets trade for Ben Chiarot

 

[thusk]

Chiarot is NOT a top-4 D. And he's not better than anyone you are taking out of the lineup.

Yep because avanced stats say that but you need to know how to use it.

A player playing a #1 role on a bad team who can keep control of the puck. Result you facing top line by playing domething like 65% of the time without the puck because your team just suck.
Vs
A guy like liljegren who will most of the time against bottom 6 and playing with one of best possession team in NHL. So he will play probably like 35% of the time without the puck.

Between 65% and 35%, it is possible than this 30% of time possesion difference + against whonypu playing, it whats making a chiarot look worst thqn what hes really are and make a liljegren look better than whats hes really defensivly?

Like i sais if you dont know how to use stats, stats wont tell you anything

 

[Fogelhund]

One or two new players, is not going to make a difference for this current team anyway. Unless we get maybe Shesterkin. This team needs to figure some things out, before a body or two is going to change anything. We've got some elite offense going on, questionable team D, and questionable goaltending. We might just need a shrink.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Yep because avanced stats say that but you need to know how to use it.

A player playing a #1 role on a bad team who can keep control of the puck. Result you facing top line by playing domething like 65% of the time without the puck because your team just suck.
Vs
A guy like liljegren who will most of the time against bottom 6 and playing with one of best possession team in NHL. So he will play probably like 35% of the time without the puck.

Between 65% and 35%, it is possible than this 30% of time possesion difference + against whonypu playing, it whats making a chiarot look worst thqn what hes really are and make a liljegren look better than whats hes really defensivly?

Like i sais if you dont know how to use stats, stats wont tell you anything

But dude you haven't really said anything that indicates you're using stats in any more of an effective way either. That example with Chairot's advanced analytics you referenced from SN was a good example.

 

[kb]

But dude you haven't really said anything that indicates you're using stats in any more of an effective way either. That example with Chairot's advanced analytics you referenced from SN was a good example.

I love when posters try to dig their way out of holes.

 

[stickty111]

What makes them not Top 4 D's on a contending team, especially Liljegren? I completely disagree but maybe I'm missing something that shows they are out of their depth.

Seems like the stats support my eye test. Liljegrens season so far:

I think there is a case to be made he should be on the 3rd pair come playoff time, however thinking we need to get like 2 or 3 d man that push him to 9th on the depth chart is silly. I'm sure there are fans who think Sandin shouldn't be in the lineup in the playoffs because of that one game.
Whats hurting Liljegren is that he can't get saves so it makes his mistakes look worse.

 

[Amadeus]

Jacob Middleton would be a great get for us to partner with Sandin.

 

[Peace Frog]

He probably would move the needle quite a bit. I think he's overrated for his current ability but there's no denying his contract value + potential to keep growing. I think going from a terrible team to a good one and he might show his worth.

Do you give up Sandin for Chychrun? That's the hard question. If not Sandin, Knies... Robertson... Niemela? Would the Coyotes accept mostly picks instead? Probably not.

I think we could afford to part with any one of our prospects, for Chychrun. He’s only 23 years old and signed to a VERY cap friendly contract for three more years after this one.
Chychrun with 50% retained for our 1st, Knies (Arizona kid) and Kerfoot. Steep price, but worth it imo.

 

[Scion]

What makes them not Top 4 D's on a contending team, especially Liljegren? I completely disagree but maybe I'm missing something that shows they are out of their depth.

Seems like the stats support my eye test. Liljegrens season so far:

There is a discrepancy between Liljegren's raw GA and his xGA. It's hard for me to dismiss all of that as noise when so many of the goals the Leafs have conceded with Liljigren on the ice are his doing. So it becomes a question of what you believe the truth is. The underlying numbers or the raw totals. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

 

[Kurtz]

Chiarot is NOT a top-4 D. And he's not better than anyone you are taking out of the lineup.

What makes you say this? He played that role in Montreal last year and looked extremely effective in the playoffs. What about his game did you dislike?

 

[Scion]

I also think it's important to repeat that I like Liljigren and Sandin, and moving forward I think they both have top 4 upside. I'm just not willing to hedge this season on both of them playing important roles in the playoffs without prior experience. One I can live with, but not both.

 

[Kurtz]

I'm not basing my opinion on metrics. There is a large discrepancy between Liljegren's raw GA and his xGA. It's hard for me to dismiss all of that as noise when so many of the goals the Leafs have conceded with Liljigren on the ice are his doing. So it becomes a question of what you believe the truth is. The underlying numbers or the raw totals. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

I'm really puzzled by folks' eagerness to completely dismiss the evidence of their eyes in favour of often a singular stat. You can lean on stats for players of other teams, who you do not see more than a few times, but when it comes to our own players, who we watch extensively...do we not trust our eyes?

 

[tony135420]

What makes them not Top 4 D's on a contending team, especially Liljegren? I completely disagree but maybe I'm missing something that shows they are out of their depth.

Seems like the stats support my eye test. Liljegrens season so far:

that’s great! Now someone teach him how to take the body in front of his own net. /s

 

[dubplatepressure]

that’s great! Now someone teach him how to take the body in front of his own net. /s

you kid, but confirmation bias is a real thing.

 

[Avilaj07]

It's pretty clear that the biggest issue on this team is that the defense is soft as butter. It's no secret teams know this and if you've noticed over the last month, teams are literally throwing everything at the net and jumping on the rebounds or getting tips. How to solve the issue, get defensemen that clear the front of the net. While people may not like Chiarot, that's exactly what he does. He clears the front of the net and has an edge to him that we desperately need back there. Not to mention, he's actually a pretty good skater as well and can make a pass. Do I give up a first for him, absolutely not, but if you can get him for a 2nd/3rd + Dermott, I'd do that instantly.

 

[SprDaVE]

There is a discrepancy between Liljegren's raw GA and his xGA. It's hard for me to dismiss all of that as noise when so many of the goals the Leafs have conceded with Liljigren on the ice are his doing. So it becomes a question of what you believe the truth is. The underlying numbers or the raw totals. The answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

What are the discrepancies between his raw GA and xGA? I don't understand the problem, especially when you start looking at similar "real" top 4 D that would replace him in the lineup. Right now, the Leafs tend to out shoot/chance opponents when he's on the ice by a lot. His effictiveness shows a competent Top 4 D. Nothing suggests he or Sandin can't play at the same time even if everyone is healthy.

Maybe if there was something substantial brought to the table, with real comparisons? Who would or should come in the lineup over Liljegren, or Sandin, or both, and give us such a better chance?

I'm really puzzled by folks' eagerness to completely dismiss the evidence of their eyes in favour of often a singular stat. You can lean on stats for players of other teams, who you do not see more than a few times, but when it comes to our own players, who we watch extensively...do we not trust our eyes?

And what does our own eyes say about Liljegren and Sandin? I'm confused. This has nothing to do with numbers vs eye test and cherry picking one over the other. This market and fan base is so hyper focused on it's own players and they tend to believe that other defensemen never do mistakes, or that they are far superior for various reasons. Especially with defensemen.

 

[dubplatepressure]

It's pretty clear that the biggest issue on this team is that the defense is soft as butter. It's no secret teams know this and if you've noticed over the last month, teams are literally throwing everything at the net and jumping on the rebounds or getting tips. How to solve the issue, get defensemen that clear the front of the net. While people may not like Chiarot, that's exactly what he does. He clears the front of the net and has an edge to him that we desperately need back there. Not to mention, he's actually a pretty good skater as well and can make a pass. Do I give up a first for him, absolutely not, but if you can get him for a 2nd/3rd + Dermott, I'd do that instantly.

I mean I can't help but agree with this. I think Lilly and Sandin are both extremely important to our future, but we absolutely need to compliment them with guys who can play a more physically assertive game. Brodie, Holl, Dermott, they're all butter soft. Even Rielly's not going to physically dominate anyone out there.

The problem with a Chiarot trade is where do you play him. Does he go 3LD and replace Sandin? That seems counterproductive. Does he slot 3RD? Where does Boosh go? If either Chiarot or Boosh are 2RD we're going to have issues. There just doesn't seem to be a place for Chiarot. We need someone who can do that and play top-4 minutes.

 

[kb]

What makes you say this? He played that role in Montreal last year and looked extremely effective in the playoffs. What about his game did you dislike?

He was walked regularly like a rented mule, but Price bailed them out. And it's happening this season too.

He has no real puck skills and for a rush team, that's not a good combo.

 

[Scion]

What are the discrepancies between his raw GA and xGA? I don't understand the problem, especially when you start looking at similar "real" top 4 D that would replace him in the lineup. Right now, the Leafs tend to out shoot/chance opponents when he's on the ice by a lot. His effictiveness shows a competent Top 4 D. Nothing suggests he or Sandin can't play at the same time even if everyone is healthy.

Maybe if there was something substantial brought to the table, with real comparisons? Who would or should come in the lineup over Liljegren, or Sandin, or both, and give us such a better chance?



And what does our own eyes say about Liljegren and Sandin? I'm confused. This has nothing to do with numbers vs eye test and cherry picking one over the other. This market and fan base is so hyper focused on it's own players and they tend to believe that other defensemen never do mistakes, or that they are far superior for various reasons. Especially with defensemen.

As for your question, the player that takes that spot is not currently on the team. The Leafs need to trade for them, the guy I really want is Josh Manson because of his blend of size, physicality, skating and defensive acumen. I think he would compliment Rielly nicely and enable the Leafs to pair Brodie with Muzzin so that Jake doesn't have to do all of the heavy lifting by himself.

Rielly - Manson
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Lybushkin

 

[Scion]

I'm really puzzled by folks' eagerness to completely dismiss the evidence of their eyes in favour of often a singular stat. You can lean on stats for players of other teams, who you do not see more than a few times, but when it comes to our own players, who we watch extensively...do we not trust our eyes?

I think it's an age and experience thing. I used to be the same way when I was younger, and then when I was more exposed to analytics in an actual hockey environment I learned just how many limitations there were to them. Limitations that were often explainable with the eye test. Not always, but often. The real problem with the eye test is that it's impossible to get eyes on everyone and because of our biases as individuals we are often too slow to pick up on declines and tangible changes in ability.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I think Comtois would be a smart bet. Maybe more so in the off-season.

I wonder if a deal around Dermott for Comtois is close in value?

I think thats a solid one tbh...and we always seem to be dance partners with the ducks.

Goalies we can snag is possible zach fucale as a reclamation project or ilya samsonov from the caps now that it seems like vanecek has taken the crease.

 

[stickty111]

He was walked regularly like a rented mule, but Price bailed them out. And it's happening this season too.

He has no real puck skills and for a rush team, that's not a good combo.

If you want someone whose actually good and plays similarly to Chariot, it's Soucy