GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART X

[SprDaVE]

As for your question, the player that takes that spot is not currently on the team. The Leafs need to trade for them, the guy I really want is Josh Manson because of his blend of size, physicality, skating and defensive acumen. I think he would compliment Rielly nicely and enable the Leafs to pair Brodie with Muzzin so that Jake doesn't have to do all of the heavy lifting by himself.

Rielly - Manson
Muzzin - Brodie
Sandin - Lybushkin

So the raw GA discrepancy VS the xGA can be explained by having the worst goaltending save percentage in the league for a few months now. The impression here would be a lot more favourable if the Leafs received above average goaltending.

Liljegren isn't perfect nor is he a defensive wizard by any means. He's pretty average defensively... but what he does best is something that can most certainly consider a Top 4 defenseman right now and no reason to believe he can't do it when the playoffs start.

Manson has not been good at all from what I've seen and it's pretty obvious the Ducks want to move on as well. He has struggled and his minutes has been slashed a lot. He's considered a true top 4 defenseman but not Liljegren? I just see another Lyub in Manson.

 

[OVO16]

Giordano and Luke Schenn would be great adds somehow. Cheaper than Chychyrin/Lindholm/Manson. Would really make our defense that much harder to play against.

Both Florida and Tampa are extremely feisty and hard-checking teams. They are gonna throw everything to the net.

Reilly - Giordano
Brodie - Schenn
Muzzin - Lyubushkin

Sandin and Liljegren would be great depth to have in case of injuries or if we decide we need more playmaking from the back end. We would be ready for any sort of game.

(In this scenario I have Holl/Dermott both traded in deals somehow)

 

[LeafChief]

I like the idea of a Dermott / Comtois swap. If the Ducks are moving out a bunch of D, Dermott could be of interest to them.

 

[LeafChief]

Giordano and Luke Schenn would be great adds somehow. Cheaper than Chychyrin/Lindholm/Manson. Would really make our defense that much harder to play against.

Both Florida and Tampa are extremely feisty and hard-checking teams. They are gonna throw everything to the net.

Reilly - Giordano
Brodie - Schenn
Muzzin - Lyubushkin

Sandin and Liljegren would be great depth to have in case of injuries or if we decide we need more playmaking from the back end. We would be ready for any sort of game.

(In this scenario I have Holl/Dermott both traded in deals somehow)

I like Schenn but if you're bringing him in, it' probably not to play in your top 4.

 

[kb]

If you want someone whose actually good and plays similarly to Chariot, it's Soucy

Yes, I thought he was very solid yesterday. Seems to have enough puck skills, he's a decent skater for a big man, and he was solid positionally.

He's a guy I would go for over Chiarot. And his cap hit could fit next season too.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

I like the idea of a Dermott / Comtois swap. If the Ducks are moving out a bunch of D, Dermott could be of interest to them.

i think either manson or lindholm goes i dont think both will stay IMO.

 

[OVO16]

I like Schenn but if you're bringing him in, it' probably not to play in your top 4.

Well, he's playing top 4 minutes in Vancouver and seems to be doing just fine. In fact, he's probably having his best season yet.

Regardless I wouldn't put too much onus into 2nd or 3rd pairing. I think in my hypothetical scenario, minutes would be distributed very evenly

 

[hockeywiz542]

Expect teams to go Duck hunting on TSN's Top 60 Trade Bait board - TSN.ca

Jakob Chychrun and Claude Giroux remain firmly atop the TSN Trade Bait list, but teams are expected to go Duck hunting as the NHL’s March 21 trade deadline approaches.

A pair of Anaheim impending unrestricted free agents are among the most important players on the rise. Right defenceman Josh Manson moves from No. 15 to 5 and right winger Rickard Rakell jumps from No. 10 to 6 in the latest ranking.

On the job for little more than a month, Ducks GM Pat Verbeek has decisions to make on Manson, a 30-year-old blueliner with bite, and Rakell, a 28-year-old with 28 points, including 16 goals.

Also inside the top 15 is Anaheim’s talented left-shot defenceman Hampus Lindholm (No. 14), who is in the final year of his deal.

According to TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun, the Ducks are trying to get Lindholm signed to an extension, which has put a hold on the situation with Manson. LeBrun said on Tuesday’s Insider Trading that if talks with Lindholm break down, the Ducks could turn their attention back to getting Manson signed to a new deal before the deadline.

Data listed below are position, age, 2021-22 NHL games, goals, points, cap hit and contract years past this season.

 

[Scion]

So the raw GA discrepancy VS the xGA can be explained by having the worst goaltending save percentage in the league for a few months now. The impression here would be a lot more favourable if the Leafs received above average goaltending.

Liljegren isn't perfect nor is he a defensive wizard by any means. He's pretty average defensively... but what he does best is something that can most certainly consider a Top 4 defenseman right now and no reason to believe he can't do it when the playoffs start.

Manson has not been good at all from what I've seen and it's pretty obvious the Ducks want to move on as well. He has struggled and his minutes has been slashed a lot. He's considered a true top 4 defenseman but not Liljegren? I just see another Lyub in Manson.

Why isn't every Leaf suffering from the same discrepancy then? The problem with looking at xG totals is that they do not account for the reality that even one or two bad plays a night can compromise an otherwise great night if they lead to goals against. Furthermore, the things Liljegren does poorly like boxing out and being heavy on the puck lead to goals against more frequently than the data accounts for, IMO.

 

[Scion]

Manson has not been good at all from what I've seen and it's pretty obvious the Ducks want to move on as well. He has struggled and his minutes has been slashed a lot. He's considered a true top 4 defenseman but not Liljegren? I just see another Lyub in Manson.

The Ducks are trying to re-sign Manson, but are prioritizing Lindholm. It is misleading to say that they are trying to move on. Additionally, Manson is good at precisely the things that I don't believe the analytics capture, but more importantly, he is good in the areas the Leafs lack. imo.

 

[Duffman955]

I don't want rentals

I want guys that can improve the team for years. I'd be looking to add a big Dman and a big forward.

Not sure how you solve goaltending mid season. Maybe Varlamov?

 

[Zonk]

This proposal is off the wall, but somewhat interesting, (maybe).

Anton Forsberg has been as hot the last few months as Campbell and Mrazek have been cold. He is about one year younger and has even less NHL experience than Campbell. A detailed analysis, (and an excellent read), can be found here:
Anton Forsberg: A potential goalie trade target who could help the Maple Leafs this season & beyond
His current AAV is $900,000 and he is UFA at the end of the season.

Michael Del Zotto signed a two-year contract with Ottawa last summer with an AAV of $2 million and, more importantly for Uncle Eugene, a cash requirement of $2.25 million next year. He has spent most of the season in the AHL.

Acquiring Forsberg would be a risk because he has so little NHL experience but he could turn out to be much better than Mrazek. I am guessing that the cost would be a third round pick or possibly a second.

How much negative value does Del Zotto have? He is clearly not in Ottawa's plans; they did not even call him up when they ran into injuries. He could/should/might be better than Dahlstrom as LHD depth, (he has a lot more NHL experience), and the cap hit when he is buried in the AHL is $875,000.

Would Ottawa agree that the value of Forsberg is offset by the negative value of Del Zotto and let them go as a package for a C prospect (essentially worthless, but allows the Leafs to free up a contract spot)?

If Del Zotto stays in the AHL, the total cap hit to Toronto would be $1.775 million, ($900,000 for Forsberg and $875,000 for Del Zotto). The Leafs would have to make another move to fit them in.

Dreaming in technicolour, if the Leafs could dump Mrazek and his $3,8 million cap hit (Edmonton? Washington?), they would net from the transactions $2.025 million to invest elsewhere. My understanding is that they will also have about a million in accrued cap space by the deadline, so the total of roughly $3 million would be enough to acquire Carson Soucy, ($2,75 million this year and next, and able to play both sides). See: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2022/03/01/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-target-carson-soucy/

 

[Scion]

Giordano and Luke Schenn would be great adds somehow. Cheaper than Chychyrin/Lindholm/Manson. Would really make our defense that much harder to play against.

Both Florida and Tampa are extremely feisty and hard-checking teams. They are gonna throw everything to the net.

Reilly - Giordano
Brodie - Schenn
Muzzin - Lyubushkin

Sandin and Liljegren would be great depth to have in case of injuries or if we decide we need more playmaking from the back end. We would be ready for any sort of game.

(In this scenario I have Holl/Dermott both traded in deals somehow)

I like Giordano too, I'm just worried that his price will be inflated by his past achievments, kind of like Foligno last year.

 

[Scion]

I like the idea of a Dermott / Comtois swap. If the Ducks are moving out a bunch of D, Dermott could be of interest to them.

I don't know if we would have to add, but I really like that framework and could see it making sense for both teams.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Chiarot is NOT a top-4 D. And he's not better than anyone you are taking out of the lineup.

That’s what you guys keep saying. You said the same about zadorov and grunBranson but both are playing a big part for the success of the flames.

Defenseman like those guys bring an element that is 100 per cent needed in the playoffs when the refs put their whistles away.

Chariot or someone of his nasty nature would replace soft as marshmallow Holl

Liligren who needs to get stronger

Dermott who is too small to be physical

 

[Leafs1991]

McBain going to be a UFA

 

[Ziggdiezan]

So the raw GA discrepancy VS the xGA can be explained by having the worst goaltending save percentage in the league for a few months now. The impression here would be a lot more favourable if the Leafs received above average goaltending.

Liljegren isn't perfect nor is he a defensive wizard by any means. He's pretty average defensively... but what he does best is something that can most certainly consider a Top 4 defenseman right now and no reason to believe he can't do it when the playoffs start.

Manson has not been good at all from what I've seen and it's pretty obvious the Ducks want to move on as well. He has struggled and his minutes has been slashed a lot. He's considered a true top 4 defenseman but not Liljegren? I just see another Lyub in Manson.

While I agree that Lily has had dreadful performances by the goalies behind him, stats like onIceSv% (he has a terrible on ice SV%) aren't purely due to the goalies performance and are strongly influenced by the defenders play as well. Also if it was purely due to goaltending you would see more leafs in that largest discrepancy list.

 

[SprDaVE]

Why isn't every Leaf suffering from the same discrepancy then? The problem with looking at xG totals is that they do not account for the reality that even one or two bad plays a night can compromise an otherwise great night if they lead to goals against. Furthermore, the things Liljegern does poorly like boxing out and being heavy on the puck lead to goals against more frequently than the data accounts for, IMO.

Aren't they suffering the same discrepancy, especially in the last few weeks? I haven't checked, and I might be wrong, but I feel like without even checking they all are to certain degree. Liljegren just has the bigger one.

The things that he doesn't do well as you suggested, he does so much better in other areas than someone like Manson that you brought up, like a various of zone exit methods, puck possession and actually contributing offensively. I understand these are considered part of an offensive mind set but being able to control the puck means the other team doesn't, something Liljegren does well.

So while he has negatives and he needs to keep developing, Manson does a lot of poor things as wel that really make me question his value as a top 4 defenseman.

 

[kb]

McBain going to be a UFA

Bring it on.....welcome home, Jack.

 

[SprDaVE]

While I agree that Lily has had dreadful performances by the goalies behind him, stats like onIceSv% (he has a terrible on ice SV%) aren't purely due to the goalies performance and are strongly influenced by the defenders play as well. Also if it was purely due to goaltending you would see more leafs in that largest discrepancy list.

It's the first time I've heard onIceSv% being the barometer of defensive acumen to be completely honest, or something used to gauge ones value defensively. I would assume then that better defensive players have better onIceSv%? So say like... Josh Manson, or Ben Chiarot, and the likes, have much better onIceSv% than players that are not seen as good defensively?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Why isn't every Leaf suffering from the same discrepancy then? The problem with looking at xG totals is that they do not account for the reality that even one or two bad plays a night can compromise an otherwise great night if they lead to goals against. Furthermore, the things Liljegern does poorly like boxing out and being heavy on the puck lead to goals against more frequently than the data accounts for, IMO.

He is not the only one to suffer from it. Rielly has sufferred from it. Muzzin has suffered from it. Pretty much anyone on our defense has suffered from it. The quality of defense has not fallen off to the point where we are talking about a 100 point drop for some guys. If anything, it is actually better than it was when Campbell's numbers were elite.

Liljegren has suffered from it a little bit more, probably because his increase in responsibility happened at around the same time our goaltending fell off of a cliff. If he was maintaining his bottom pairing performance on the top pairing, he would be in Calder conversations... And he is actually maintaining a lot of his performance from there.

Nobody is saying Liljegren is perfect, but as you even said, he is only making a couple of bad plays a night. I would add that does not happen every night. The main difference between him and most other defensemen in the NHL who do the same sort of thing is that his mistakes always seem to end up in the back of our net... And that is simply unacceptable.

It is exactly as I said yesterday: People are expecting the Leafs defense to be perfect because it effectively needs to be for us to not give up 4 or 5 goals right now. If you need your defense to be perfect to not give up a ton of goals, then your problem is not defense.

 

[Shooter2x]

So the raw GA discrepancy VS the xGA can be explained by having the worst goaltending save percentage in the league for a few months now. The impression here would be a lot more favourable if the Leafs received above average goaltending.

Liljegren isn't perfect nor is he a defensive wizard by any means. He's pretty average defensively... but what he does best is something that can most certainly consider a Top 4 defenseman right now and no reason to believe he can't do it when the playoffs start.

Manson has not been good at all from what I've seen and it's pretty obvious the Ducks want to move on as well. He has struggled and his minutes has been slashed a lot. He's considered a true top 4 defenseman but not Liljegren? I just see another Lyub in Manson.

Not true at all. The goaltenders factor for the majority of the discrepancy but the blueline still shares blame. We don't lapse as much as a team like the Kraken who have a better 5v5 xGA/60 than us, but our goaltending is so bad that the combination of our lapses + goaltending is sinking our GA/60 extremely fast. Even if our goaltending went to average or good, our D still needs to clean itself up or we're not going to get an elite GA/60 which matters more in the playoffs than xGA. Our 5v5 GA/60 is so bad now you don't have to restrict the games anymore to get it in the bottom 10. You can take the entire season now. The days of sparing the D have come to an end. There's just no way unless you're going to blindly follow the xGA.

 

[kb]

That’s what you guys keep saying. You said the same about zadorov and grunBranson but both are playing a big part for the success of the flames.

Defenseman like those guys bring an element that is 100 per cent needed in the playoffs when the refs put their whistles away.

Chariot or someone of his nasty nature would replace soft as marshmallow Holl

Liligren who needs to get stronger

Dermott who is too small to be physical

Wasn't advocating standing pat on D. I'm more on the Carson Soucy train now. He can clear the netfront (6'5"), skate, shoot, and move the puck.

3 out of those 4 are a real struggle for Chiarot.

 

[thusk]

But dude you haven't really said anything that indicates you're using stats in any more of an effective way either. That example with Chairot's advanced analytics you referenced from SN was a good example.

They are only stats about hard work and positionning... you can hate chiarot or whatever but one thing is sure, nobody in this d leafs work harder than chiarot. Its leafs biggest weakness last 6 or 7 years.

You cant just have skilled guy and think youre gonna win.

Why do you think best linemate of matthews and marner is bunting and before bunting it was hyman? Hard worker, thats it. The most effective player are not always the most talented. Toronto already having a ton of talented player, right now what they need its hard worker.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

It's the first time I've heard onIceSv% being the barometer of defensive acumen to be completely honest, or something used to gauge ones value defensively. I would assume then that better defensive players have better onIceSv%? So say like... Josh Manson, or Ben Chiarot, and the likes, have much better onIceSv% than players that are not seen as good defensively?

Sorry I didn't describe myself well. I was using Lily's very low on ice SV% to try to provide a possible rational why his GA and xGA are so different. I dont think you can use onIceSv% to compare players on 2 different teams without normalizing by each players respective team average onIceSV% to provide a more level playing field. You could however use it to compare defenders on the same team. If over a 82 game season (decent sample size) one of your defenders has a much lower on ice SV% than his peers, they probably are responsible in some way by playing poorly, making mistakes at key moments or even playing in over the head ice time wise, zone deployment , QoC etc