GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[WTFMAN99]

Miller-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase -shutdown line
Bunting-Spezza-Ho-Sang -fun
Simmonds/Clifford

Kerfoot has been fine with JT and Nylander and is actually on pace for close to 50 points now.

Bunting has been good too, but he can bump around if something isn't working and Miller is a better player so he gets the bump.

Mikheyev worked well on our shutdown line last year, especially with Hyman and Engvall. He jumps onto that LW.

I'd probably want Simmonds in with Spezza on that 4th line, he's been faster and making plays this year, especially if we're losing Ritchie, don't want to lose all our grit going into the playoffs.

 

[meefer]

A top prospect and a 1st is an overpayment. Miller is good but he's not that good.

Since the beginning of the 19/20 season Miller has averaged .95 points/game. He's durable, he ranks 18th in the league for hits by a forward, and is currently scoring at a .87 p/g pace, and sits 27th overall in scoring by a forward...on a team in turmoil. If moved, I suspect it's going to take a lot to get him, especially at 50% retained. I'd prefer keeping Niemela and offering up one of Robertson or Amirov plus the 1st. Were we to acquire Miller, each of our LWers would be signed for this year and next: Miller, Kerfoot, Bunting, Ritchie (with Amirov or Robertson in the wings, and Knies looking very good, and FA signings available). At 28 years of age, Miller would be our oldest LWer and shouldn't lose much by the end of his term.

 

[francis246]

I don’t know how people can still be pissed off at any of the big 4 for their contracts given the extensions being thrown out

 

[kb]

Any trade to get Miller will close the window off after next season. Any assets that could have filled in cheaply behind Miller (once he leaves UFA after next season) are being moved FOR Miller in most proposals.

Does this sound logical, intelligent, or sustainable, and does it match Dubas long term vision? Or is this just hfboards circle jerking about expensive names again that may or may not move the needle, but will blow up the prospect pool AND the best chance at restocking that pool?

Think think think.....please.

 

[TMLAM34]

I don’t think any trade for Miller would close the window at all. He’s signed for another year, the cap is already projected to go up at least a million after this year and probably around 3/4 after the following season when Miller’s contract expires. You replace Mrazeks cap hit with a cheaper back up and you have money to re-sign Miller to around 7 million per year.

I wouldn’t be upset if we were to acquire him but I also wouldn’t be upset if we didn’t trade our 1st away. We’ve been doing that a lot these past few years with nothing to show for it and we’re already short on draft picks this year.

I’ve mentioned this before but I’d love for the Leafs to acquire Gurianov. He’s someone who I think can really excel in the right situation. He’s a big body (6’3), can skate really well, uses his body along the boards and has a real good shot.

Gurianov - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Bunting - Kampf - Kase
Ritchie - Spezza - Simmonds

 

[BertCorbeau]

I’ve thought about Gurianov as well, but I don’t see why the stars would move him right now.

One name that intrigues me in a depth fourth line role though is Tyler Motte out of Vancouver. Physical and feisty player that could be a good playoff addition in a depth role.

 

[kb]

I don’t think any trade for Miller would close the window at all. He’s signed for another year, the cap is already projected to go up at least a million after this year and probably around 3/4 after the following season when Miller’s contract expires. You replace Mrazeks cap hit with a cheaper back up and you have money to re-sign Miller to around 7 million per year.

I wouldn’t be upset if we were to acquire him but I also wouldn’t be upset if we didn’t trade our 1st away. We’ve been doing that a lot these past few years with nothing to show for it and we’re already short on draft picks this year.

I’ve mentioned this before but I’d love for the Leafs to acquire Gurianov. He’s someone who I think can really excel in the right situation. He’s a big body (6’3), can skate really well, uses his body along the boards and has a real good shot.

Gurianov - Matthews - Marner
Kerfoot - Tavares - Nylander
Bunting - Kampf - Kase
Ritchie - Spezza - Simmonds

We have squandered prime assets on rentals - which I don't disagree with principle - if the player is a proven upgrade in a place of obvious weakness. LW is the weakest position, but it is anything but a weakness.

For me the issue is this. No matter how anyone tries to frame it - Miller is a want - a name - not a need for this team. Could our left side be stronger? Sure. But to empty out those assets when there is no hope of resigning him? PPG players don't take $5 million contracts - his next contract starts with a 7. He's American (meaning he has no ties to staying here) and is leading the fracturing of the Canucks room against Horvat. So many reasons not to look at this guy.

But if you are trading away that much of the future, the only sustainable way is by acquiring someone younger and cost controlled for at least the length of the core, and hopefully more.

 

[4thline]

Any trade to get Miller will close the window off after next season. Any assets that could have filled in cheaply behind Miller (once he leaves UFA after next season) are being moved FOR Miller in most proposals.

Does this sound logical, intelligent, or sustainable, and does it match Dubas long term vision? Or is this just hfboards circle jerking about expensive names again that may or may not move the needle, but will blow up the prospect pool AND the best chance at restocking that pool?

Think think think.....please.

I refuted this point in detail and you didn't reply.

 

[Dragao6]

I don’t know how people can still be pissed off at any of the big 4 for their contracts given the extensions being thrown out

The only big question mark for me was Marners deal. He got paid top dollar I don’t know why we didn’t sign a shorter term contract at less because even if he averages 100 pts per season his extension would have been around the 11 mark he’s getting right now.
If he doesn’t reach that and sucks in playoffs, extension would have been in the more accurate 9 million range!
Nylander was always fine, could have been abit less comparing to Pastrnak, tavares should have maxed at 10 but was ufa so it is what is is
Matthews is good, he’s a legit superstar so just the term is short but if we extend him that it’s all gods

 

[ToneDog]

I can't see us landing a T.J. Miller given his cap hit and what it would cost to get him and with retention.

Many don't like DeBrusk but I agree with Kypreos that he is the exact player we need (when he shows up). I doubt the Bruins would be interested in sending him here so it would take a 3rd team, which is about as likely as Ritchie scoring a hat trick. Imagine how difficult we'd be to play with Bunting, Debrusk, Ritchie and Clifford on LW.

At the end of the day is the cost to upgrade Kerfoot with a Miller type player worth Kerfoot and one of our top prospects or our first ?? I say no.

 

[zeke]

How is debrusk an upgrade on kerfoot?

 

[ToneDog]

How is debrusk an upgrade on kerfoot?

The upgrade I was talking about was for a Miller type player that will cost you Kerfoot and a top prospect or a 1st and possibly 23, 65 or 47. Given Debrusk wants out it might be Debrusk+ for Kerfoot which would be worth considering IMO.

Debrusk scored 27 in 68 games in 18/19 and 19 in 65 games in 19/20 in 65 and is 25 years old and plays a heaby game. If he can get close to those numbers, he would be an upgrade on Kerfoot at a much lower cost than a T.J. Miller.

 

[showtime8]

Any trade to get Miller will close the window off after next season. Any assets that could have filled in cheaply behind Miller (once he leaves UFA after next season) are being moved FOR Miller in most proposals.

Does this sound logical, intelligent, or sustainable, and does it match Dubas long term vision? Or is this just hfboards circle jerking about expensive names again that may or may not move the needle, but will blow up the prospect pool AND the best chance at restocking that pool?

Think think think.....please.

Or you can think about it like this: You have the ability to trade prospects & picks for a guy that will give you 2 shots at a long run instead of rentals at the deadline that you would have to shell out a 1st round or 2nd round pick anyways. A guy like Miller actually moves the needle in terms of production and expectation. If you're picking up a guy like Cody Eakin or Zach Sanford, you're setting limitations.

And if Dubas doesn't do well in the playoffs this year, who cares what his long-term vision is going to be. He's not going to be around to see it because he'll be canned.

 

[Leafs1991]

How is debrusk an upgrade on kerfoot?

Considering one guy put up 27 goals for a career high while the other has never cracked 20 goals in his career, I'd say Debrusk is an upgrade.

 

[dubplatepressure]

Considering one guy put up 27 goals for a career high while the other has never cracked 20 goals in his career, I'd say Debrusk is an upgrade.

Youd be wrong, and there's much more to hockey than simple offensive output.

Edit: and FWIW their career highs in point totals are exactly the same.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The only big question mark for me was Marners deal. He got paid top dollar I don’t know why we didn’t sign a shorter term contract at less because even if he averages 100 pts per season his extension would have been around the 11 mark he’s getting right now.

Marner would have gotten more than 10.9m in that scenario, especially if we didn't hit a global pandemic and the cap had continued to rise to 90m+ by that point like it was supposed to. The ~2m cap space for a few years would not have been worth the headache of re-signing him in the middle of our cup window. Our contracts were always reasonable based on their pre-signing periods relative to recent and historical post-ELC comparables; a lot of people just struggle to understand how contract valuation works.

 

[mydnyte]

Since the beginning of the 19/20 season Miller has averaged .95 points/game. He's durable, he ranks 18th in the league for hits by a forward, and is currently scoring at a .87 p/g pace, and sits 27th overall in scoring by a forward...on a team in turmoil. If moved, I suspect it's going to take a lot to get him, especially at 50% retained. I'd prefer keeping Niemela and offering up one of Robertson or Amirov plus the 1st. Were we to acquire Miller, each of our LWers would be signed for this year and next: Miller, Kerfoot, Bunting, Ritchie (with Amirov or Robertson in the wings, and Knies looking very good, and FA signings available). At 28 years of age, Miller would be our oldest LWer and shouldn't lose much by the end of his term.

didnt Vancouver also start to suck shortly after getting him? ...maybe there was a reason TB dumped him as cheap as they did (conditional 1st and junk) ...and now he's worth more? looks like a good player, but, we need a Holl replacement on the 2nd pairing, not more offense, with Mik coming back, and no spot for him either.

 

[Dragao6]

Marner would have gotten more than 10.9m in that scenario, especially if we didn't hit a global pandemic and the cap had continued to rise to 90m+ by that point like it was supposed to. The ~2m cap space for a few years would not have been worth the headache of re-signing him in the middle of our cup window. Our contracts were always reasonable based on their pre-signing periods relative to recent and historical post-ELC comparables; a lot of people just struggle to understand how contract valuation works.

Well I’m one of them
There were league mvp and Stanley cup champs making less
He hit 1 90 pts season before signing this? Nothing too crazy in the short playoff runs?

if ur complaining about current contracts being signed with very little production to back them up then marner is def in that boat also

 

[TheShape]

JT Miller is a fine player who fits this team and window like a glove. We desperately need some reliable secondary scoring, fitting him into the cap next season shouldn’t be an issue if we move on from Mrazek and Ritchie, possibly Kerfoot also.

With that said I’m not interested in moving Robertson or Amirov, and not convinced the cost would be one of those two either. However, Dubas is under immense pressure this season to win a round so there’s the possibility he moves a solid prospect to do so.

 

[ToneDog]

Youd be wrong, and there's much more to hockey than simple offensive output.

Edit: and FWIW their career highs in point totals are exactly the same.

Kerfoot and Debrusk are complete opposite types of players. If you want smallish, soft, defensive winger you take Kerfoot. If you want a bigger, stronger, grittier winger, you take Debrusk. If I can sell high on Kerfoot and buy low on Debrusk, sign me up.

 

[ACC1224]

Kerfoot and Debrusk are complete opposite types of players. If you want smallish, soft, defensive winger you take Kerfoot. If you want a bigger, stronger, grittier winger, you take Debrusk. If I can sell high on Kerfoot and buy low on Debrusk, sign me up.

Kerfoot is a pretty popular guy.
I think they will be very careful on who they bring in and who they move out.

 

[zeke]

Considering one guy put up 27 goals for a career high while the other has never cracked 20 goals in his career, I'd say Debrusk is an upgrade.

So you're basing it on what they did 4 years ago?

 

[4thline]

Kerfoot and Debrusk are complete opposite types of players. If you want smallish, soft, defensive winger you take Kerfoot. If you want a bigger, stronger, grittier winger, you take Debrusk. If I can sell high on Kerfoot and buy low on Debrusk, sign me up.

3 pounds heavier, hits more/harder
vs.
better at every other facet of playing hockey, more effective

 

[zeke]

Kerfoot and Debrusk are complete opposite types of players. If you want smallish, soft, defensive winger you take Kerfoot. If you want a bigger, stronger, grittier winger, you take Debrusk. If I can sell high on Kerfoot and buy low on Debrusk, sign me up.

Yes if you prefer a selfish one-way rat that can't produce for a team dying for depth scoring over a team-first defense-first Swiss army knife with better production then sure, choose debrusk.

 

[Leafs1991]

So you're basing it on what they did 4 years ago?

I'm saying that Debrusk is a better offensive player, loves to hit and is a much better forechecker. He is bigger and faster than Kerfoot. I've seen enough of him that I think he is a better player and would have more of an impact playing on the 2nd line than Kerfoot would.