Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[MuckOG]

When is a 25+ goal scoring winger a luxury?

When you look at the available cap space the Wild have over the next 3 seasons.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I guess my post was a little bit above your thought level, so let me break it down for you:

Guerin struggled to sign Fiala long term - either he didn't think Fiala was important to the organization or he just flat out didn't like Fiala or his contract negotiations. There is a lot of history there between Fiala and Guerin. But Guerin has made a lot of moves to indicate that Fiala is not going to be back next year and that goes back to Fiala's first negotiations with Guerin and it hasn't gotten any better from there.

Kahkonen brought back Middleton who is going to be a RFA and it'll be interesting to see what Middleton's contract is going to be like. But until Middleton signs (if he signs), I won't put him into the category of guys like Guerin has signed. More so, Guerin has again made it very obvious he wasn't impressed by Kahkonen and has gone out of his way to get rid of Kahkonen - just hope that Talbot/Fleury doesn't get injured. Also can't wait to see the next goaltender everyone is going to be excited about and then go through a roller coaster of emotions behind.

Jost is signed, but has been a massive disappointment for the Avs. But he is signed. We'll see IF Guerin brings him back but again Guerin did everything he could to get rid of Sturm.

It's kind of too early to tell if McBain's pick will do anything.

And yeah I did forget about Kaprizov, but that in itself was a circus and a lot of people were criticizing the contract.

I'll remember this in the future though that I have to dumb down my posts.

With that said I do think that the buyouts are going to put a crimp in what Minnesota is going to do because it's hard to plan bonuses for the next season unless you just don't play them.

Big brain energy here.

It's weird how you include some players that will be FAs next year (Sturm), yet exclude others (Middleton).

It's disingenuous to say Guerin tried everything to get rid of Sturm. Sturm was offered a contract. The two parties just couldn't agree on money or term.

 

[TaLoN]

Big brain energy here.

It's weird how you include some players that will be FAs next year (Sturm), yet exclude others (Middleton).

It's disingenuous to say Guerin tried everything to get rid of Sturm. Sturm was offered a contract. The two parties just couldn't agree on money or term.

Not weird.
Wild.

 

[P10p]

I guess my post was a little bit above your thought level, so let me break it down for you:

Guerin struggled to sign Fiala long term - either he didn't think Fiala was important to the organization or he just flat out didn't like Fiala or his contract negotiations. There is a lot of history there between Fiala and Guerin. But Guerin has made a lot of moves to indicate that Fiala is not going to be back next year and that goes back to Fiala's first negotiations with Guerin and it hasn't gotten any better from there.

Kahkonen brought back Middleton who is going to be a RFA and it'll be interesting to see what Middleton's contract is going to be like. But until Middleton signs (if he signs), I won't put him into the category of guys like Guerin has signed. More so, Guerin has again made it very obvious he wasn't impressed by Kahkonen and has gone out of his way to get rid of Kahkonen - just hope that Talbot/Fleury doesn't get injured. Also can't wait to see the next goaltender everyone is going to be excited about and then go through a roller coaster of emotions behind.

Jost is signed, but has been a massive disappointment for the Avs. But he is signed. We'll see IF Guerin brings him back but again Guerin did everything he could to get rid of Sturm.

It's kind of too early to tell if McBain's pick will do anything.

And yeah I did forget about Kaprizov, but that in itself was a circus and a lot of people were criticizing the contract.

I'll remember this in the future though that I have to dumb down my posts.

With that said I do think that the buyouts are going to put a crimp in what Minnesota is going to do because it's hard to plan bonuses for the next season unless you just don't play them.

Your logic here is terrible again.

Let me break it down for you without the mental gymnastics trying to dam Guerin.

"Young players gone" (Your original list, which makes no sense because there is no mention of the assets these guys brough back)
McBain (3rd rounder that returned a 2nd round pick)
Kahkonen (Returned Middleton, 1 year older and a better fit for our team)
Sturm (Returned a younger Jost who has higher potential and has shown more than Sturm imo)
Fiala (As much as you wanted to condemn Guerin, Fiala isn't gone yet and was signed by Guerin so I'm moving him to the bottom list because its more truthful)
Lindberg (UFA who simply didn't want to sign here)

"Young players signed"(With missing/omitted pieces added that you conveniently left out)
Chaffee (This is really the first guy you think of when you think of young guys Guerin signed? This shows all you should need to know about the bias in your original post. Adding someone like Chaffee and forgetting Kaprizov)
Boldy
Firstov
Rossi
Kaprizov
Fiala
Erikson-Ek
Greenway
Duhaime (Signed near minimum for 2 years, great deal.)
Beckman

Not to mention he fired Suter/Parise into the moon and cashed in on a declining Zucker to bring over Addison and a high pick.

For all the gripes about Guerin, trying to frame it as though he is bleeding out our young assets is one of the most ridiculous arguments you can make. This team has absolutely gotten better and younger under his watch. You including Chaffee and Firstov while excluding our franchise leader and best prospect says volumes about your bias and if you had an introspective bone in your body you would see this instead of trying to dig in your heels.

 

[Digitalbooya]

From what I’ve seen so far, I’d rather have

Jost over Sturm
Middleton over Kahkonen

Those were good moves.

 

[57special]

From what I’ve seen so far, I’d rather have

Jost over Sturm
Middleton over Kahkonen

Those were good moves.

Yes to the second, but I'd rather Dewar + 1.15M cap space over Jost. I don't see speed, physicality, FO skill, ability to win puck battles, or a shot from Jost. He's a tweener. Sturm had speed, length, and was a good defensive player. I wouldn't want to pay him more than 2M, either, but i was fine with letting him move on after the season, filling his role from guys in the AHL, and saving a bit of money.
Jost has gotten lots of opportunities because he was a relatively high draft pick, but I don't see much of anything there. The stats are also unimpressive, but it's more that I think he has limited athleticism and skill- that's hard to overcome.

I have not been impressed with Guerin's inability to close the deal with two young players who played a position of need, and instead buying two more years of an aging former teammate as he moves into his late 30's. Being able to sign guys is a really important part of the job, especially young ones. He sure as hell better not blow the Boldy signing in a few years. You think he(and his agent) isn't watching how he is treating his linemate, another talented winger?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Yes to the second, but I'd rather Dewar + 1.15M cap space over Jost. I don't see speed, physicality, FO skill, ability to win puck battles, or a shot from Jost. He's a tweener. Sturm had speed, length, and was a good defensive player. I wouldn't want to pay him more than 2M, either, but i was fine with letting him move on after the season, filling his role from guys in the AHL, and saving a bit of money.
Jost has gotten lots of opportunities because he was a relatively high draft pick, but I don't see much of anything there. The stats are also unimpressive, but it's more that I think he has limited athleticism and skill- that's hard to overcome.

I have not been impressed with Guerin's inability to close the deal with two young players who played a position of need, and instead buying two more years of an aging former teammate as he moves into his late 30's. Being able to sign guys is a really important part of the job, especially young ones. He sure as hell better not blow the Boldy signing in a few years. You think he(and his agent) isn't watching how he is treating his linemate, another talented winger?

which center besides mcbain did he have issues signing? Sturm was offered a reasonable contract for what he would be used in, it wasnt about money it was about usage and he wants more than 4th line duty which even though our depth lacks he was not going to get.

 

[57special]

which center besides mcbain did he have issues signing? Sturm was offered a reasonable contract for what he would be used in, it wasnt about money it was about usage and he wants more than 4th line duty which even though our depth lacks he was not going to get.

Meyers.

 

[MuckOG]

I don't feel that Guerin get's enough love for extending Ryan Hartman to that sweat-heart of a deal.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Yes to the second, but I'd rather Dewar + 1.15M cap space over Jost. I don't see speed, physicality, FO skill, ability to win puck battles, or a shot from Jost. He's a tweener. Sturm had speed, length, and was a good defensive player. I wouldn't want to pay him more than 2M, either, but i was fine with letting him move on after the season, filling his role from guys in the AHL, and saving a bit of money.
Jost has gotten lots of opportunities because he was a relatively high draft pick, but I don't see much of anything there. The stats are also unimpressive, but it's more that I think he has limited athleticism and skill- that's hard to overcome.

I have not been impressed with Guerin's inability to close the deal with two young players who played a position of need, and instead buying two more years of an aging former teammate as he moves into his late 30's. Being able to sign guys is a really important part of the job, especially young ones. He sure as hell better not blow the Boldy signing in a few years. You think he(and his agent) isn't watching how he is treating his linemate, another talented winger?

So basically what I'm hearing is you like Sturm more because he's a better grinder than Jost. Guerin helped fill an area of need with a similar level asset that was signed for 1 more year and is a RFA at the end of their deal for a guy who was going to walk at the end of the year. That's good asset management 101. I also think that Jost has more upside even if he's not a center here.

I found it interesting looking at 5v5 GF% stats. Jost is at 54.55%. Last place? Dewar at 38.89%. Second to last place? Sturm at 40.91%. The difference is in the GA/60 believe it or not. Jost has a 1.86 GA/60. Sturm has a 3.08 GA/60. How is that for the defense narrative? Sturm isn't saved by xGF% either. Jost has 53.87% xGF. Sturm had 49.72% xGF%.

My eyes tell me Jost is at least on par with Sturm (not including faceoffs). The stats point more positives towards Jost so far. If Jost can't win a faceoff then stick him at wing. Bjugstad wins 55% of his faceoffs and is probably better suited for the center position come playoffs anyways.

Meyers.

Cause Guerin has the ability to force Meyers to sign with Minnesota...?

 

[north21]

Losing a college ufa shouldn't be even considered a loss or blamed on anyone. They are great finds but to consider it some kind management failure because they didn't sign one is a little out there.

 

[Sad People]

Losing a college ufa shouldn't be even considered a loss or blamed on anyone. They are great finds but to consider it some kind management failure because they didn't sign one is a little out there.

Like Ive said in another thread you cant be too upset over losing something you never had

 

[57special]

Cause Guerin has the ability to force Meyers to sign with Minnesota...?

Of course not. When did i ever say that? But he failed to sign Meyers, and failed to sign McBain. Signing and developing young players are the key to any team's success, nvm a team like the Wild who have significant cap challenges ahead of them.

Guerin has failed in his pitches to sign both young players. That can't be seen as anything more than an L.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Meyers.

Meyers said no to 30 GMs. he was apparently given the red carpet tour of the team and facility. It could of simply been little to no NHL time this season that caused Meyers to say no, nobody knows exactly quite yet but its very very easy to see why he would select COL over every other team. put yourself in his shoes and tell me you wouldnt pick COL. i suppose this counts as a failed signing as he didnt sure but i will not hold Meyers over him. McBain you can put directly on him and i wont disagree but Meyers is a different situation all together.

 

[57special]

So basically what I'm hearing is you like Sturm more because he's a better grinder than Jost. Guerin helped fill an area of need with a similar level asset that was signed for 1 more year and is a RFA at the end of their deal for a guy who was going to walk at the end of the year. That's good asset management 101. I also think that Jost has more upside even if he's not a center here.

I found it interesting looking at 5v5 GF% stats. Jost is at 54.55%. Last place? Dewar at 38.89%. Second to last place? Sturm at 40.91%. The difference is in the GA/60 believe it or not. Jost has a 1.86 GA/60. Sturm has a 3.08 GA/60. How is that for the defense narrative? Sturm isn't saved by xGF% either. Jost has 53.87% xGF. Sturm had 49.72% xGF%.

My eyes tell me Jost is at least on par with Sturm (not including faceoffs). The stats point more positives towards Jost so far. If Jost can't win a faceoff then stick him at wing. Bjugstad wins 55% of his faceoffs and is probably better suited for the center position come playoffs anyways.

What I said is what I said, not what you are saying I said. Sturm has better athleticism than Jost, and, IMO, is a better player overall.
Dewar may, or may not be a better player. I know he is a better skater, and I also know he is paid less than half what Jost is on a cap strapped team.

Here's a stat. Since going to the Avs, Sturm has taken the 2nd most amount of FO's on the team after Mackinnon, and he has won them at a 55% clip. NHL Stats

It's on Evason that he couldn't figure out that Sturm was one of the few C's on this team who could win a FO.

Meyers said no to 30 GMs. he was apparently given the red carpet tour of the team and facility. It could of simply been little to no NHL time this season that caused Meyers to say no, nobody knows exactly quite yet but its very very easy to see why he would select COL over every other team. put yourself in his shoes and tell me you wouldnt pick COL. i suppose this counts as a failed signing as he didnt sure but i will not hold Meyers over him. McBain you can put directly on him and i wont disagree but Meyers is a different situation all together.

You seem to be willing to give Guerin a pass. I am not.

 

[ShortPeter6]

You seem to be willing to give Guerin a pass. I am not.

You also are trying to blame him for something he can’t control. Also the eye test tells me the Jost trade was a big win.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You seem to be willing to give Guerin a pass. I am not.

a pass on Meyers yes. McBain i just want clarity on as what some have speculated does not make much sense about McBain thinking we are too deep at C.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Of course not. When did i ever say that? But he failed to sign Meyers, and failed to sign McBain. Signing and developing young players are the key to any team's success, nvm a team like the Wild who have significant cap challenges ahead of them.

Guerin has failed in his pitches to sign both young players. That can't be seen as anything more than an L.

How is it a failure when the player has the ability to do whatever they want regardless of what the franchise has to offer? You can't force them to join your team in these situations. The college loophole happens. Meyers chose Colorado. You seem to have the expectation we can just get whoever we want in a free agency type of setting. That's not how that works. It's ultimately the player's decision.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I don't feel that Guerin get's enough love for extending Ryan Hartman to that sweat-heart of a deal.

Hartman went through FOUR teams before landing in Minnesota - Chicago -> Nashville -> Philadelphia -> Dallas. Including three in one season. He mentioned that in Minnesota, he felt comfortable and was willing to take a pay cut instead of trying to find a new team.

I'm also discounting Spurgeon, because that seems to be a Fenton/Guerin mix deal.

A lot of fans were grudgingly accepting of JEE's deal, but there were a lot of detractors of that. Not to mention Foligno's extension.

But this goes back to how Fletcher assembled the team. The nickel and dime stuff does add up. Overpaying for players by even 500K can add up and really quickly at that.

How is it a failure when the player has the ability to do whatever they want regardless of what the franchise has to offer? You can't force them to join your team in these situations. The college loophole happens. Meyers chose Colorado. You seem to have the expectation we can just get whoever we want in a free agency type of setting. That's not how that works. It's ultimately the player's decision.

Guerin (and fans) keep bringing up the fact that Minnesota is going to need lean hard on prospects and young players to get them through the cap hell years, but Guerin has yet to really stick the landing on some promising prospects that could help them out. Plus there is some questions about the depth at center (Dewar seems likely to be brought up, but there isn't any high end talent outside of Rossi) when you have a winger playing center, a 28 year old journeyman, a 25 year old that has fallen out of favor and a defensive specialist.

I think there is a lot of questions on Guerin's sale pitch.

When you look at the available cap space the Wild have over the next 3 seasons.

Before or after the addition of Jost, Greenway's extension, Goligoski's extension, Merrill's extension, needing to sign on another goaltender, Gaudreau's contract...?

 

[MuckOG]

Hartman went through FOUR teams before landing in Minnesota - Chicago -> Nashville -> Philadelphia -> Dallas. Including three in one season. He mentioned that in Minnesota, he felt comfortable and was willing to take a pay cut instead of trying to find a new team.

I'm also discounting Spurgeon, because that seems to be a Fenton/Guerin mix deal.

A lot of fans were grudgingly accepting of JEE's deal, but there were a lot of detractors of that. Not to mention Foligno's extension.

But this goes back to how Fletcher assembled the team. The nickel and dime stuff does add up. Overpaying for players by even 500K can add up and really quickly at that.

So Guerin gets ZERO credit for extending Hartman?

 

[Bazeek]

So Guerin gets ZERO credit for extending Hartman?

This thread has become a master class in confirmation bias.

 

[Digitalbooya]

What I said is what I said, not what you are saying I said. Sturm has better athleticism than Jost, and, IMO, is a better player overall.
Dewar may, or may not be a better player. I know he is a better skater, and I also know he is paid less than half what Jost is on a cap strapped team.

Here's a stat. Since going to the Avs, Sturm has taken the 2nd most amount of FO's on the team after Mackinnon, and he has won them at a 55% clip. NHL Stats

It's on Evason that he couldn't figure out that Sturm was one of the few C's on this team who could win a FO.

The only things Sturm has on Jost is that he wins more faceoffs and he's bigger. Jost has more skill than Sturm. Jost has more upside than Sturm. Jost has more cost friendly years (we are after all, a cap strapped team).

You seem to be under the impression that Sturm was some great player here worthy of a role in the top 6. In reality, he struggled to make the lineup. His one shining quality was his ability to win faceoffs over 50% of the time. He's like a Gaudreau-lite to Newhook's Fiala-lite currently.

 

[thestonedkoala]

So Guerin gets ZERO credit for extending Hartman?

No one is saying that, I think he gets credit for bringing in Hartman in the first place, as well as the extension, but it's not a mutually exclusive thing. Hartman was looking for stability, Guerin offered it to him. It was a mutual deal in the same way that Guerin appears to be struggling on offering Minnesota as a place for young players to sign.

 

[Minnewildsota]

No one is saying that, I think he gets credit for bringing in Hartman in the first place, as well as the extension, but it's not a mutually exclusive thing. Hartman was looking for stability, Guerin offered it to him. It was a mutual deal in the same way that Guerin appears to be struggling on offering Minnesota as a place for young players to sign.

Whoa. It's almost like both the "Team" and the player need to come to an agreement in deals...

I like how you complain that Guerin is giving guys too much money but then complain that he traded away Sturm (because Sturm wanted more than the team wanted to pay).

 

[thestonedkoala]

I like how you complain that Guerin is giving guys too much money but then complain that he traded away Sturm (because Sturm wanted more than the team wanted to pay).

Woah. It's almost like Sturm wasn't giving a discount to the team (like Hartman did) and we also don't know the constructs of the contract or if Sturm actually wanted more than the team was willing to pay.