Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[Minnewildsota]

First thing I think of when I hear trade for prospects is the Burns trade, we got hosed, only one player the Wild got in that trade is in the NHL today, and he's in Boston right now. And Burns is still a standout.

Not sure about that one... He definitely was fantastic though.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I can’t justify trading Fiala if we’re not getting a true top prospect in return or top 10 pick.

It's getting to the point where a top 10 pick is still going to leave me disappointed.

 

[Southern Minny]

Not sure about that one... He definitely was fantastic though.

He may not be what he once was, but he still has more points than Coyle in Boston. And played at a higher level and is still than any player in that trade. I just don't like trading a sure thing for a bunch meh who knows.

 

[57special]

I can’t justify trading Fiala if we’re not getting a true top prospect in return or top 10 pick.

Can't help but feel that a team like Seattle(among many others) would be falling all over themselves to get Fiala. They don't have cap problems, will have a high 1st. they will need talent to play with Beniers, and not leave him out on an island.
A 1st ++ for Fiala(deal worked out beforehand) + Kulikov(assuming we re-sign Middleton) seems doable, and sensible for both sides.
Seattle can be a good market, but they need to start being competitive. Fiala would go a long way in making them so. I am not sure that Fiala would want to sign with them, but if they offer an 8x 8M deal that would be hard to turn down.

 

[saywut]

My expectations for a Fiala deal are a package built around Greig(Ottawa) or Perrault(Anaheim). If NJ makes Holtz available then that's probably the deal to make, but I'm not sure that will happen. Given our team success, needs and cap structure its pretty clear we should be looking for a scoring-line forward that can contribute during the 2023 calendar year while also remaining cheap through the 24/25 season, which is an ELC yet to start. Anything that expires sooner could put us in the same situation 1-2 years down the line, which just leaves another opportunity to flunk a trade. There's not many teams that can take on what Fiala likely commands while sending minimal salary back, while also feeling pressed to make that kind of trade. The Buchnevich deal isn't even a year old in a similar situation and it was terrible from the moment it happened, but does leave the thought in my mind that the adds to either of those players may not be as significant as we'd like them to be, the reality is the cap doesn't work and everything Guerin has done has implied Fiala is the odd man out.

 

[57special]

My expectations for a Fiala deal are a package built around Greig(Ottawa) or Perrault(Anaheim). If NJ makes Holtz available then that's probably the deal to make, but I'm not sure that will happen. Given our team success, needs and cap structure its pretty clear we should be looking for a scoring-line forward that can contribute during the 2023 calendar year while also remaining cheap through the 24/25 season, which is an ELC yet to start. Anything that expires sooner could put us in the same situation 1-2 years down the line, which just leaves another opportunity to flunk a trade. There's not many teams that can take on what Fiala likely commands while sending minimal salary back, while also feeling pressed to make that kind of trade. The Buchnevich deal isn't even a year old in a similar situation and it was terrible from the moment it happened, but does leave the thought in my mind that the adds to either of those players may not be as significant as we'd like them to be, the reality is the cap doesn't work and everything Guerin has done has implied Fiala is the odd man out.

Grieg and Perrault would be awful returns if they are the main players coming back in a Fiala deal.

 

[saywut]

Grieg and Perrault would be awful returns if they are the main players coming back in a Fiala deal.

And Blais was awful for Buchnevich.
FWIW Greig is right behing Rossi on Button's list, not that I agree with it.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Can't help but feel that a team like Seattle(among many others) would be falling all over themselves to get Fiala. They don't have cap problems, will have a high 1st. they will need talent to play with Beniers, and not leave him out on an island.
A 1st ++ for Fiala(deal worked out beforehand) + Kulikov(assuming we re-sign Middleton) seems doable, and sensible for both sides.
Seattle can be a good market, but they need to start being competitive. Fiala would go a long way in making them so. I am not sure that Fiala would want to sign with them, but if they offer an 8x 8M deal that would be hard to turn down.

I think you’re right that Seattle should be a team that makes sense. He could be the guy there and real offensive driver there. I think he’s got a couple ppg seasons in him if he’s given top-line, top PP minutes. However, I just don’t see Seattle moving their 1st, especially when they’re a few drafts away from having a core to build around.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

It's getting to the point where a top 10 pick is still going to leave me disappointed.

Now just imagine how dissapointed we’re going to be when he get a late 1st + b prospect

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Now just imagine how dissapointed we’re going to be when he get a late 1st + b prospect

I don't know if that would make the Fiala trade atrocious or the Zucker trade incredible.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

There is no leverage to say, nope no deal we'll just keep him. Can't threaten that if it's not even an option. I guess hopefully the only leverage is using teams against each other.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The 2 trades I go to are Pacioretty and Reinhart:

Pacioretty was a ~65 point per 82 game player and was 29 years old at the time of the trade. Prospect of Nick Suzuki's quality + 2nd round pick (+ Tatar) was the return.

Reinhart was ~62 point per 82 game player and was 25 years old at the time of the trade. 1st round pick and we'll call it a "B" prospect was the return.

Fiala has been a 71 point per 82 game player over the last 3 years and will be ~26 at the time of a theoretical trade.

I really don't think that it would be out of line for the ask to be a Suzuki-type prospect + 1st round pick:
Ottawa's 1st + Pinto/Greig
Holtz + something with the value of a 1st in the 20-30 range from NJ (with maybe something small coming back from us)
Anaheim's 1st + Perrault
Seattle's 1st (right now top 3 I think)
LA's 1st + Turcotte

 

[AKL]

Probably not realistic at all, and I'm sure many would disagree after a bad start to his career, but I would still be amenable to some kind of three way trade where we move Fiala to a third team, the third team moves assets to NYR, and we get Lafreniere.

Not sure if the Rangers are interested in moving Lafreniere so soon when his value is so low, but they're also a team trying to turn the corner into contender status, and they may be enticed by pieces that can help them win now.

 

[57special]

I think you’re right that Seattle should be a team that makes sense. He could be the guy there and real offensive driver there. I think he’s got a couple ppg seasons in him if he’s given top-line, top PP minutes. However, I just don’t see Seattle moving their 1st, especially when they’re a few drafts away from having a core to build around.

It is obvious that Seattle is not the next Vegas, so they are going to have to work to be relevant. There is a lot of money and enthusiasm in that town, but it will slowly fade away if they don't start to win. Fiala will give them some excitement right away, whereas there is no absolute sure thing star in this year's draft. The #1oa, Wright, is Beniers, essentially, and all the other players are maybes, though i like a couple of the Dmen.
If they were a team that was up against the cap, or if Fiala was 3-4 years older I would get them being hesitant, but if I was Seattle I would trade my #1 unless it was the #1 oa.
GM's have to worry about the future, but they also have to worry about the present. If they don't, they will find themselves w/o a job before the future arrives.

 

[Joseph Nathan]

Probably not realistic at all, and I'm sure many would disagree after a bad start to his career, but I would still be amenable to some kind of three way trade where we move Fiala to a third team, the third team moves assets to NYR, and we get Lafreniere.

Not sure if the Rangers are interested in moving Lafreniere so soon when his value is so low, but they're also a team trying to turn the corner into contender status, and they may be enticed by pieces that can help them win now.

Love these. Or Kaapo with chrys.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Probably not realistic at all, and I'm sure many would disagree after a bad start to his career, but I would still be amenable to some kind of three way trade where we move Fiala to a third team, the third team moves assets to NYR, and we get Lafreniere.

Not sure if the Rangers are interested in moving Lafreniere so soon when his value is so low, but they're also a team trying to turn the corner into contender status, and they may be enticed by pieces that can help them win now.

Id take that trade. Laf still has plenty of potential to boom.

 

[57special]

Even if Guerin decides to move Dumba, is he even tradable, considering that we have to get next to no cap coming back to make it work for us?

 

[Spurgeon]

Even if Guerin decides to move Dumba, is he even tradable, considering that we have to get next to no cap coming back to make it work for us?

The UFA defenseman market isn’t that spectacular this season so I feel like there’s got to be at least a few teams that would be interested in him at his full cap hit.

 

[57special]

The UFA defenseman market isn’t that spectacular this season so I feel like there’s got to be at least a few teams that would be interested in him at his full cap hit.

Late 1st, if we aren't taking cap back, at best? He's only got one more year on his deal, then the acquiring team has to worry about re-signing him.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Even if Guerin decides to move Dumba, is he even tradable, considering that we have to get next to no cap coming back to make it work for us?

Might need to sacrifice some of the return.

 

[57special]

Might need to sacrifice some of the return.

Yeah, I just don't think there will much, if any of a return for him unless we take cap back, which defeats the purpose of the exercise.
Plenty of teams would want Dumba, but most of those would be contenders with little cap space.
Perhaps moving Zuccarello will have to be revisited this summer. Not ideal, but two more years at a 6M cap hit considering his production would have some appeal.
Still can't help but feel that Guerin has botched the cap management of this team.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, I just don't think there will much, if any of a return for him unless we take cap back, which defeats the purpose of the exercise.
Plenty of teams would want Dumba, but most of those would be contenders with little cap space.
Perhaps moving Zuccarello will have to be revisited this summer. Not ideal, but two more years at a 6M cap hit considering his production would have some appeal.
Still can't help but feel that Guerin has botched the cap management of this team.

Maybe it'd still be worth it.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

if we are taking closer to 1m back in a dumba trade it can work in our favor.

 

[57special]

Lafreniere(of the 2020 crowd) looks worse than Raymond, Drysdale, Mercer, Stutzle, Lundell, and maybe even Jarvis. I don't know that Quinn (who has been destroying the AHL) and Sanderson won't be better NHL players either.
Fiala for Mercer I'd have to consider, and might be semi realistic for both teams. I get the Holtz + too- riskier, as Mercer has already proven he can play in the NHL, and can be a C.

 

[BagHead]

Even if Guerin decides to move Dumba, is he even tradable, considering that we have to get next to no cap coming back to make it work for us?

I think the earlier you can move Dumba (or Fiala, or whoever), the better. That said, I'm sure no trade will happen until draft day at the earliest, but it should be done before free agency begins. Once that happens, teams start locking up cap space, and the next thing you know you have nobody who can trade for your guys.