Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[57special]

I think the earlier you can move Dumba (or Fiala, or whoever), the better. That said, I'm sure no trade will happen until draft day at the earliest, but it should be done before free agency begins. Once that happens, teams start locking up cap space, and the next thing you know you have nobody who can trade for your guys.

Don't worry, he has a plan.

 

[ShortPeter6]

Don't worry, he has a plan.

I think his plan was to trade Fiala but I bet he’s rethinking that plan after what Fiala has done. He can still get him signed with moving Dumba and Talbot. I bet he would love to have that 2 mill from Goose though. I just don’t see how he can’t attempt to sign Fiala.

 

[57special]

I think his plan was to trade Fiala but I bet he’s rethinking that plan after what Fiala has done. He can still get him signed with moving Dumba and Talbot. I bet he would love to have that 2 mill from Goose though. I just don’t see how he can’t attempt to sign Fiala.

Naw. BG wants the best dressing room, not guys who kill it on the ice, and don't miss games.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I wonder if trade protection would be the bigger issue for Fiala than money. Not saying he'd sign for $6M if could get a full NTC, but with how iffy Guerin has been about Fiala, I wouldn't blame him for wanting as much protection as possible.

 

[NHL1674]

Naw. BG wants the best dressing room, not guys who kill it on the ice, and don't miss games.

Dumba has been missing more and more games lately.

 

[TaLoN]

Dumba has been missing more and more games lately.

Supposedly he may be back by Sunday.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Here's a list of players/prospects that I think would suffice in a Fiala deal, If they have already decided to trade him and won't change their mind. I'm not including any player I thinl have no chance of being traded for Fiala. e.g., Lundell, Raymond, Seider, etc.
Mercer, Holtz, Guenther, Jarvis, Eklund, Kent Johnson, and Dach

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

This lineup is very likely to be cap compliant for 2022-23, even if we had to retain a bit on Dumba:

Kaprizov - Hartman - Zuccarello
Boldy - Gaudreau - Fiala
GREEF
Duhaime - Jost - Bjugstad
Deslauries

Middleton - Spurgeon
Brodin - Addison
Goligoski - Kulikov
Merrill

Talbot
$1M backup

And this lineup is very likely to be cap compliant for 2023-24:

Kaprizov - Rossi - Hartman
Boldy - Gaudreau/Jost - Fiala
GREEF
Duhaime - Dewar - Bjugstad
Deslauries

Middleton - Spurgeon
Brodin - Addison
Goligoski - Merrill
Whoever

1A goalie for ~$3M
Wallstedt

It's not even a sure thing that Zuccarello would have to go, depending on what you can get Middleton, Fiala and Boldy's 2nd contract at.

 

[57special]

Here's a list of players/prospects that I think would suffice in a Fiala deal, If they have already decided to trade him and won't change their mind. I'm not including any player I thinl have no chance of being traded for Fiala. e.g., Lundell, Raymond, Seider, etc.
Mercer, Holtz, Guenther, Jarvis, Eklund, Kent Johnson, and Dach

Mercer + 2nd... yes, please.
Holtz + 1st
Guenther + 2nd ......(don't think ARI ownership can afford Fiala- they are a disaster)
Jarvis + 2nd.....(meh, even though he is good)
Eklund + 2nd...... yes, please...fiala in waiting.
Kent Johnson + 2nd.... I have doubts about him
Dach.........no. I don't know what's wrong with him, but hasn't been the same since he broke his wrist. Also can't see CBH trading him.

Buffalo has three firsts this year, and Quinn, who is tearing up the AHL.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Mercer + 2nd... yes, please.
Holtz + 1st
Guenther + 2nd ......(don't think ARI ownership can afford Fiala- they are a disaster)
Jarvis + 2nd.....(meh, even though he is good)
Eklund + 2nd...... yes, please...fiala in waiting.
Kent Johnson + 2nd.... I have doubts about him
Dach.........no. I don't know what's wrong with him, but hasn't been the same since he broke his wrist. Also can't see CBH trading him.

Buffalo has three firsts this year, and Quinn, who is tearing up the AHL.

I still like Dach because of what I saw his rookie year, but admittedly haven't watched him much this season.

I do worry that we aren't going to get nearly what us fans think Fiala is worth in a trade. For what it's worth, Russo does think the Wild will want a 1st + prospects or a couple firsts for him.

I just finished listening to Russo's live stream. What I got from it is that he thinks the wild want to keep him around, but doesn't think they're going to be willing to pay what he wants. Seems like in every negotiation so far, they value him quite a bit less than he values himself. They offered him 3 years x 6M last offseason, and that wasn't close for him. Russo doesn't think they will be willing to pay him much more than 6.5M. Says they made the decision last offseason that they were going to trade him after this season. Thinks they're going to run a Boldy-Rossi-Gaudreau line next season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I still like Dach because of what I saw his rookie year, but admittedly haven't watched him much this season.

I do worry that we aren't going to get nearly what us fans think Fiala is worth in a trade. For what it's worth, Russo does think the Wild will want a 1st + prospects or a couple firsts for him.

I just finished listening to Russo's live stream. What I got from it is that he thinks the wild want to keep him around, but doesn't think they're going to be willing to pay what he wants. Seems like in every negotiation so far, they value him quite a bit less than he values himself. They offered him 3 years x 6M last offseason, and that wasn't close for him. Russo doesn't think they will be willing to pay him much more than 6.5M. Says they made the decision last offseason that they were going to trade him after this season. Thinks they're going to run a Boldy-Rossi-Gaudreau line next season.

Can't really blame him at all for his contract negotiation "issues" then. They don't exist on his side of things.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I still like Dach because of what I saw his rookie year, but admittedly haven't watched him much this season.

I do worry that we aren't going to get nearly what us fans think Fiala is worth in a trade. For what it's worth, Russo does think the Wild will want a 1st + prospects or a couple firsts for him.

I just finished listening to Russo's live stream. What I got from it is that he thinks the wild want to keep him around, but doesn't think they're going to be willing to pay what he wants. Seems like in every negotiation so far, they value him quite a bit less than he values himself. They offered him 3 years x 6M last offseason, and that wasn't close for him. Russo doesn't think they will be willing to pay him much more than 6.5M. Says they made the decision last offseason that they were going to trade him after this season. Thinks they're going to run a Boldy-Rossi-Gaudreau line next season.

IF those number were correct (3x6m), I feel that was a reasonable offer for him based upon previous play. I guess the question is/was how much more was he thinking he deserved? Personally, I probably would have gone up to about 7m/yr on him. That's not that much more than they offered so I have reason to believe he wanted 7.5+

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

IF those number were correct (3x6m), I feel that was a reasonable offer for him based upon previous play. I guess the question is/was how much more was he thinking he deserved? Personally, I probably would have gone up to about 7m/yr on him. That's not that much more than they offered so I have reason to believe he wanted 7.5+

I think he signed a "prove it" it deal in the off season of 2019, and then did everything he needed to do in the next 2 year to do just that.

There's no reason for him to accept a worse contract than Sam Reinhart got that same off season.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

One thing I want to clarify because I heard Russo say it on WSITH and his live stream: if the wild allow a team to lure Fiala with an offer sheet, we would likely receive the teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick the next season as that is the compensation for the $6,166,097 - $8,221,463 AAV. He's been saying we'd get 3 or 4 firsts, which isn't right.

 

[AKL]

I think he signed a "prove it" it deal in the off season of 2019, and then did everything he needed to do in the next 2 year to do just that.

There's no reason for him to accept a worse contract than Sam Reinhart got that same off season.

Yeah. Looking like Guerin botched this one from the start.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

One thing I want to clarify because I heard Russo say it on WSITH and his live stream: if the wild allow a team to lure Fiala with an offer sheet, we would likely receive the teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick the next season as that is the compensation for the $6,166,097 - $8,221,463 AAV. He's been saying we'd get 3 or 4 firsts, which isn't right.

I wonder if he's assuming that the length would have to be longer than 5 years in order to get Fiala interested?

 

[Bazeek]

One thing I want to clarify because I heard Russo say it on WSITH and his live stream: if the wild allow a team to lure Fiala with an offer sheet, we would likely receive the teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick the next season as that is the compensation for the $6,166,097 - $8,221,463 AAV. He's been saying we'd get 3 or 4 firsts, which isn't right.

Hadn't really occurred to me, but an offersheet seems like a pretty real danger here. If a team that's worth a damn offers him close to $8m he'd have little reason not to sign, and the compensation coming our way would be wretched.

We're already talking about deals that don't send much cap back our way, so if you're Ottawa or Anaheim or whoever else, wouldn't you just send him the offer sheet?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I wonder if he's assuming that the length would have to be longer than 5 years in order to get Fiala interested?

The term doesn't matter. 5 years at 7.5M is a 1 2 and 3

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL Offer Sheet calculator which determines which NHL teams have the required compensation to submit an offer sheet.

www.capfriendly.com

 

[57special]

One thing I want to clarify because I heard Russo say it on WSITH and his live stream: if the wild allow a team to lure Fiala with an offer sheet, we would likely receive the teams 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick the next season as that is the compensation for the $6,166,097 - $8,221,463 AAV. He's been saying we'd get 3 or 4 firsts, which isn't right.

If that team is in playoffs, it won't be a great return. Always thought it weird that the offer sheet scenario favored the better teams- a #32oa is obviously not even close in value to a top 5 pick.
It would make more sense for a team like PIT or to offer sheet him if they can fit his salary under the cap. Then we get a mid 20's, mid 50's, and mid 80's pick... underwhelming.

 

[AKL]

The term doesn't matter. 5 years at 7.5M is a 1 2 and 3

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL Offer Sheet calculator which determines which NHL teams have the required compensation to submit an offer sheet.

www.capfriendly.com

I think we can probably expect an offer sheet to be 5 years, but let's say Ottawa offered him 7.5x7, that would be four 1sts compensation. So that's possibly where Russo got confused?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Hadn't really occurred to me, but an offersheet seems like a pretty real danger here. If a team that's worth a damn offers him close to $8m he'd have little reason not to sign, and the compensation coming our way would be wretched.

We're already talking about deals that don't send much cap back our way, so if you're Ottawa or Anaheim or whoever else, wouldn't you just send him the offer sheet?

Exactly. That's why I wanted to clarify that. Not that I'd be super upset about getting an unprotected first from ANA/OTT, but I think we'd do better to control the situation and move him, with a new deal in place, before June 1

 

[Bazeek]

Hadn't really occurred to me, but an offersheet seems like a pretty real danger here. If a team that's worth a damn offers him close to $8m he'd have little reason not to sign, and the compensation coming our way would be wretched.

We're already talking about deals that don't send much cap back our way, so if you're Ottawa or Anaheim or whoever else, wouldn't you just send him the offer sheet?

Actually, I'm probably not thinking about the timelines here. He couldn't actually sign an offer until after the draft, no? Which is probably when they'd be looking to trade him by, anyway.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Teams that could offer sheet him at the $6-$8 million level:
Anaheim
Arizona
Carolina (uh oh)
Chicago
Columbus
Dallas
Detroit
Edmonton
LA
Montreal
Nashville
New Jersey
Ottawa
San Jose
Seattle
Vancouver

Aside from Carolina and Nashville, maybe Anaheim and LA, a lot of those could end up being fairly ok situations for the 2023 draft. I'd probably cross off Edmonton and Vancouver due to cap issues.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The term doesn't matter. 5 years at 7.5M is a 1 2 and 3

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL Offer Sheet calculator which determines which NHL teams have the required compensation to submit an offer sheet.

www.capfriendly.com

Yeah, but what's his real incentive to sign for 5 when he could play out 1 and go to market at 26 years old?

 

[AKL]

Yeah, but what's his real incentive to sign for 5 when he could play out 1 and go to market at 26 years old?

Not having to prove it again next season, security. Plus he'd get another contract at 30, which is still young enough to get some more term and money, rather than waiting til he's 26, signing a 7 year deal, and then being 33 the next time he's looking for a new contract.