Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[ThatGuy22]

Not so sure about that.

Which part

 

[Minnewildsota]

Which part

Being able to afford $5m next year.

EDIT: So I used the spreadsheet I used to calculate for Fiala and Dumba, just replacing Fiala with Dadanov. Here's how the salaries break down, with total cap hit.

Forwards
1​	Kaprisov	$ 9,000,000.00
2​	Zuccarello	$ 6,000,000.00
3​	Eriksson Ek	$ 5,250,000.00
4​	Foligno	$ 3,100,000.00
5​	Greenway	$ 3,000,000.00
6​	Jost	$ 2,000,000.00
7​	Hartman	$ 1,700,000.00
8​	Gaudreau	$ 1,200,000.00
9​	Body	$ 880,833.00
10​	Duhaime	$ 750,000.00
11​	Dadanov	$ 5,000,000.00
Defense
1​	Spurgeon	$ 7,575,000.00
2​	Brodin	$ 6,000,000.00
3​	Dumba	$ 6,000,000.00
4​	Kulikov	$ 2,250,000.00
5​	Merrill	$ 1,200,000.00
6​	Middleton	$ 3,000,000.00
Goalies
1​	Talbot	$ 3,666,667.00
Buyouts		$ 12,743,588.00
	All	$ 80,316,088.00
	w/Dumba w/o Dadanov	$ 75,316,088.00
	w/Dadanov w/o Dumba	$ 74,316,088.00
	w/o Both	$ 69,316,088.00

If we keep Dumba and acquire Dadanov, we are right up against the cap while having an incomplete roster.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Being able to afford $5m next year.

EDIT: So I used the spreadsheet I used to calculate for Fiala and Dumba, just replacing Fiala with Dadanov. Here's how the salaries break down, with total cap hit.

Forwards
1​	Kaprisov	$ 9,000,000.00
2​	Zuccarello	$ 6,000,000.00
3​	Eriksson Ek	$ 5,250,000.00
4​	Foligno	$ 3,100,000.00
5​	Greenway	$ 3,000,000.00
6​	Jost	$ 2,000,000.00
7​	Hartman	$ 1,700,000.00
8​	Gaudreau	$ 1,200,000.00
9​	Body	$ 880,833.00
10​	Duhaime	$ 750,000.00
11​	Dadanov	$ 5,000,000.00
Defense
1​	Spurgeon	$ 7,575,000.00
2​	Brodin	$ 6,000,000.00
3​	Dumba	$ 6,000,000.00
4​	Kulikov	$ 2,250,000.00
5​	Merrill	$ 1,200,000.00
6​	Middleton	$ 3,000,000.00
Goalies
1​	Talbot	$ 3,666,667.00
Buyouts		$ 12,743,588.00
	All	$ 80,316,088.00
	w/Dumba w/o Dadanov	$ 75,316,088.00
	w/Dadanov w/o Dumba	$ 74,316,088.00
	w/o Both	$ 69,316,088.00

If we keep Dumba and acquire Dadanov, we are right up against the cap while having an incomplete roster.

I did the exercise last night on capfriendly with the 81.5 Million cap that's likely.

I think you're way high on Middleton. He currently has a career 59 games, and 12 points in the NHL. Not even currently on a one way contract.

I was being generous I thought when I gave him 1.5 Million, I envision BG is going to follow his habit of giving term to bottom of the lineup guys(like he did with Merrel and Hartman, tried to do with Sturm), they get stability he gets cheap caphits. He'll probably have a contract similiar to Merrel when it's said in down, but probably even cheaper. If both sides played hardball, as an RFA through arbitration he'd probably end up with like 800k on a one way deal.

All that said A dadanov trade in and Fiala Trade out, with Middleton at 1.5m, Rossi, Addison and Dewar to fill up the lineup and the 1 M cap increase, I think I had 1.75 Million for backup goalie. Cutting it tight, and not ideal. But doable. But probably worth it for the bundle of assets to come with the trades.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I did the exercise last night on capfriendly with the 81.5 Million cap that's likely.

I think you're way high on Middleton. He currently has a career 59 games, and 12 points in the NHL. Not even currently on a one way contract.

I was being generous I thought when I gave him 1.5 Million, I envision BG is going to follow his habit of giving term to bottom of the lineup guys(like he did with Merrel and Hartman, tried to do with Sturm), they get stability he gets cheap caphits. He'll probably have a contract similiar to Merrel when it's said in down, but probably even cheaper. If both sides played hardball, as an RFA through arbitration he'd probably end up with like 800k on a one way deal.

All that said A dadanov trade in and Fiala Trade out, with Middleton at 1.5m, Rossi, Addison and Dewar to fill up the lineup and the 1 M cap increase, I think I had 1.75 Million for backup goalie. Cutting it tight, and not ideal. But doable. But probably worth it for the bundle of assets to come with the trades.

Correct. I was being quite generous. I went somewhere between the 1.5m I thought he could/would get and the 4m that was presented earlier on his play's worth.

 

[GuerinUp]

I did the exercise last night on capfriendly with the 81.5 Million cap that's likely.

I think you're way high on Middleton. He currently has a career 59 games, and 12 points in the NHL. Not even currently on a one way contract.

I was being generous I thought when I gave him 1.5 Million, I envision BG is going to follow his habit of giving term to bottom of the lineup guys(like he did with Merrel and Hartman, tried to do with Sturm), they get stability he gets cheap caphits. He'll probably have a contract similiar to Merrel when it's said in down, but probably even cheaper. If both sides played hardball, as an RFA through arbitration he'd probably end up with like 800k on a one way deal.

All that said A dadanov trade in and Fiala Trade out, with Middleton at 1.5m, Rossi, Addison and Dewar to fill up the lineup and the 1 M cap increase, I think I had 1.75 Million for backup goalie. Cutting it tight, and not ideal. But doable. But probably worth it for the bundle of assets to come with the trades.

hes was playing with erik karlsson as a 4 when we traded for him, and sounds like hell be playing with spurg. so i dont know if you can call him a bottom of the lineup guy.

 

[ThatGuy22]

hes was playing with erik karlsson as a 4 when we traded for him, and sounds like hell be playing with spurg. so i dont know if you can call him a bottom of the lineup guy.

Still very TBD whether he was playing with Karlsson because of lack of options in SJ, and if he'll stick with Spurgeon.

Regardless, he doesn't have the track record to suggest he's going to clean up as an RFA.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Still very TBD whether he was playing with Karlsson because of lack of options in SJ, and if he'll stick with Spurgeon.

Regardless, he doesn't have the track record to suggest he's going to clean up as an RFA.

Navigating what a player is going to get in RFA is always tough for me. Some teams and players negotiate a deal based upon previous play. Others strike a deal based on potential going forward.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Navigating what a player is going to get in RFA is always tough for me. Some teams and players negotiate a deal based upon previous play. Others strike a deal based on potential going forward.

There is certainly some leeway, but the 4 million someone brought up was his Athletic Player card "Market Value". Which is poorly named in my opinion, and really just how much on average a player with that GSVA (Dom's model) is paid. Without taking into any outside factors.

The likely range for Middleton is somewhere between 800k and 1.5m depending upon term.

 

[57special]

I think the hope for Middleton is that he will end up being a Soucy type player. Tougher, but less offense. For me, the thing is how well he plays defense, especially in the D zone. If he is solid there, but lacks in the puck handling, mobility department further up the ice we can always pair him up with one of our smaller, RH PMD's(Spurge, dumba, Addison), as they would have complimentary skills.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I think the hope for Middleton is that he will end up being a Soucy type player. Tougher, but less offense. For me, the thing is how well he plays defense, especially in the D zone. If he is solid there, but lacks in the puck handling, mobility department further up the ice we can always pair him up with one of our smaller, RH PMD's(Spurge, dumba, Addison), as they would have complimentary skills.

I don't disagree, and Soucy got a 3 year deal for 2.75m in a pretty similar situation that had one key difference. He was a Group 6 UFA, while baring injury Middleton will get 14 games and still be an RFA.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I did the exercise last night on capfriendly with the 81.5 Million cap that's likely.

I think you're way high on Middleton. He currently has a career 59 games, and 12 points in the NHL. Not even currently on a one way contract.

I was being generous I thought when I gave him 1.5 Million, I envision BG is going to follow his habit of giving term to bottom of the lineup guys(like he did with Merrel and Hartman, tried to do with Sturm), they get stability he gets cheap caphits. He'll probably have a contract similiar to Merrel when it's said in down, but probably even cheaper. If both sides played hardball, as an RFA through arbitration he'd probably end up with like 800k on a one way deal.

All that said A dadanov trade in and Fiala Trade out, with Middleton at 1.5m, Rossi, Addison and Dewar to fill up the lineup and the 1 M cap increase, I think I had 1.75 Million for backup goalie. Cutting it tight, and not ideal. But doable. But probably worth it for the bundle of assets to come with the trades.

I think back before all the trades, was giving Sturm $1.5M and Kahkonen $2.5M and was ending up only being able to afford a ~$3.5M winger.

I guess I'll have to do it again now.

Were you counting any bonus overages for Boldy/Rossi/Addison?

 

[TaLoN]

I don't disagree, and Soucy got a 3 year deal for 2.75m in a pretty similar situation that had one key difference. He was a Group 6 UFA, while baring injury Middleton will get 14 games and still be an RFA.

Middleton needs to play 80 games this year, or he's a group 6 ufa.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I think back before all the trades, was giving Sturm $1.5M and Kahkonen $2.5M and was ending up only being able to afford a ~$3.5M winger.

I guess I'll have to do it again now.

Were you counting any bonus overages for Boldy/Rossi/Addison?

There are about 1.5 million in potential bonuses, that would likely go to overages if hit. Addison only has 80k, and is unlikely to hit any of the potential D "A" bonus categories.

Rossi/Boldy might hit a couple of the "A" bonuses, but unlikely to hit most. Might end up with 800k combined in bonuses if they both hit the ground running. So potential for some overages.

I did it again, with a goalie I ended up with 400k in Capspace. It's tight, but doable.


FORWARDS (13)
Right wing: Mats Zuccarello ($6,000,000) - Jordan Greenway ($3,000,000) - Evgeni Dadonov ($5,000,000) - Tyson Jost ($2,000,000)
Centre: Ryan Hartman ($1,700,000) - Joel Eriksson Ek ($5,250,000) - Marco Rossi ($894,167) - Frédérick Gaudreau ($1,200,000)
Left wing: Kirill Kaprizov ($9,000,000) - Marcus Foligno ($3,100,000) - Matthew Boldy ($880,833) - Brandon Duhaime ($750,000) - Connor Dewar ($800,000)

DEFENSE (7)
Right: Matt Dumba ($6,000,000) - Jared Spurgeon ($7,575,000) - Calen Addison ($795,000)
Left: Jonas Brodin ($6,000,000) - Jacob Middleton ($1,500,000) - Dmitry Kulikov ($2,250,000) - Jon Merrill ($1,200,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
Cam Talbot ($3,666,667) - Charlie Lindgren ($800,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Ryan Suter ($6,371,794) - Zach Parise ($6,371,794)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 22
Salary Cap: $82,500,000
Cap Hit: $82,105,255
Cap Space: $394,745

 

[ThatGuy22]

Middleton needs to play 80 games this year, or he's a group 6 ufa.

He was on the Sharks roster during the covid freeze in March 2020. So it's pro-rated down slightly. I think the number he needs to hit is 73 if I did the formula in the return to play MOU right.

Here is the language on the Group 6 from the return to play MOU

o Group 6:
▪ If a Player was a Roster Freeze Player, 28/80 NHL Games Played thresholds shall be prorated in the following manner:
• Player with 3 seasons under NHL SPC (including 2019-20): ((82+82+70)/246)*(28 or 80 as the case may be) • Player with 4 seasons under NHL SPC (including 2019-20): ((82+82+82+70))/328)*(28 or 80 as the case may be) Page 55 of 71
• Player with 5 or more seasons under NHL SPC (including 2019-20) shall follow the same pattern in this section.
• 11 Professional Games Played threshold for 18/19 year olds for 2019-20 prorated by a factor of [70/82]
▪ If a Player was not a Roster Freeze Player, there shall be no pro-ration of the 28/80 NHL Games Played thresholds.

 

[TaLoN]

He was on the Sharks roster during the covid freeze in March 2020. So it's pro-rated down slightly. I think the number he needs to hit is 73 if I did the formula in the return to play MOU right.

That's not what NHL network was reporting at the time of the trade. They were pretty adamant about thre 80 game mark.

 

[ThatGuy22]

That's not what NHL network was reporting at the time of the trade. They were pretty adamant about thre 80 game mark.

TV Analysts often overlook minute details. They hear he could potentially be a group 6 UFA, and think he's gotta get 80 games. Not thinking (or knowing) about proration due to being a Covid Roster freeze player (if they even know he was spending every night in the prossbox on the active roster in SJ).

I Updated the post with the language from the MOU, capfriendly has him listed as a Roster freeze player.

He was called up on Feb 19th 2020, and never sent down before the pause. Spent the shortened season bouncing between the NHL/Taxi squad.

He absolutely qualified for the pro-ration of the 80 games.

Edit:
And here's Russo on the subject

 

[TwiztedHeat]

Well Vegas needs to change the terms of the Eichel deal to guarantee BUF get the ‘22 1st if they are to include a first with Dadonov. Honestly wouldn’t hate it, but I think we’re gonna see Fleury and Deslaurier re-signed with Middleton tbh. Fiala will go to the highest bidder, hopefully for that OTT 1st.

 

[fredrikstad]

Have not read the whole tread. What does it means "for future consideration " for Rask?

 

[Wild11MN]

Have not read the whole tread. What does it means "for future consideration " for Rask?

It really means nothing. Gave him away for free.

 

[TaLoN]

Have not read the whole tread. What does it means "for future consideration " for Rask?

It really means nothing. Gave him away for free.

Yup... nuthin

 

[ThatGuy22]

Have not read the whole tread. What does it means "for future consideration " for Rask?

9 out of 10 times it means nothing. Occasionally it means like a 6th/7th round pick 2 years later.

I feel like I remember that happening with us involving like Stuabitz or Nystrom a decade or so ago.

 

[TaLoN]

This aged like milk. Because that's exactly where Seattle placed him upon his arrival.

This post aged even worse...

 

[MK9]

This post aged even worse...

Equal perhaps. More than that is hyperbolic.

 

[TaLoN]

Equal perhaps. More than that is hyperbolic.

Not equal, as it now is causing the other post to turn into delicious cheese.

 

[fredrikstad]

It really means nothing. Gave him away for free.

Ok. Thank you