So you think the team should trade away defense instead of offense? What about our team makes you think that we need to score more goals, and that our defense is rock solid?
No, I think we should focus on making sure that position aside we retain our best players that deliver the highest impact and then work downwards from there. If we lose Fiala, I do think we largely become a 1-line team scoring-wise. I think without Fiala, Boldy's impact will take a significant step back as I think Boldy is already really good and will be an incredible player but he's not yet even at Fiala's level as a line driver and will be hurt being stapled by a bottom 6 caliber player instead of a 1st line caliber player like Fiala. Again, I think we need to start with making sure that our best players have the structure and support to be able to be optimized & maximize their impact.
In the near term in our prospect pool, we are much deeper on the defensive side than the offensive side. Addison should be ready to step into an NHL role next year and O'Rourke/Hunt should start next season in the AHL and potentially even be able to make an NHL impact. If not by the middle or end of next season, if you are aggressive with development (and I think the Wild don't have a choice not to be) both players should be ready to go. And then after that you have another wave of high-end D prospects with Lambos/Peart.
Behind Rossi, the Wild really have no forward depth that they could realistically expect to potentially be ready for middle 6 minutes in the next 3 years outside of Beckman let alone a first-line caliber player like Fiala. It's not a choice that I would WANT to make but it's clearly the right decision to make in my opinion especially with the idea that keeping Fiala is the best path to speed up and/or cushion Rossi/Boldy's development path.
If it were me making decisions, I would argue that paying $8m for bottom-6 players (Greenway, Foligno, Jost) is poor cap management. It's not that I don't like having the Ek line (though I would argue $12m for a 3rd line is choosing to prioritize lower ROI boxes) but I think it would be do-able to cobble together a 3rd line (centered by Ek with his defensive skills) that can provide 80% of what the current line does (Example - Hartman - Ek - Duhaime). Instead, I would use that cap to retain Fiala and still be able to keep Spurgeon/Brodin/Dumba (at least through next year or the next 2 years while O'Rourke & Hunt develop).
However, given that BG has made the choice that one of our highest priorities is stacking the Ek/Greenway/Foligno line as an "identity" line & pushed chips in on Jost as a potential cheap upgrade to Hartman or Gaudreau... that means we have to make a choice between Fiala (and also maximizing Boldy/Rossi) and Dumba or Spurgeon. Given age & contract, that likely means Dumba. I think it's much easier to find Carson Soucy & Scandella type players that can do 80% of what Dumba does (I would argue that Addison should be able to do that or at the very least you need to rely on him being able to do that and take a chance to make this work) than it is to develop 1st-line caliber forwards that can drive a line and average a PPG.
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2022-23 Lineup
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Kaprizov - Rossi - Zuccarello
Fiala - ______ - Boldy
Greenway - ______ - Foligno
Duhaime - Gaudreau - ______
*Find the right combination of spots for Ek, Hartman, and Jost in the blank lineup sections
Extra skate: Dewar
Brodin - Addison
Spurgeon - Goligoski
____ - ____
*Merrill, Kulikov, & Mermis can fill the bottom pairing/7th D
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Offseason Moves
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-Trade Dumba or Spurgeon for futures, if you could get a near NHL ready young D that's great as well
-Attempt to resign Goligoski to a 1-year $2-2.5m deal as a stop-gap for O'Rourke/Hunt development
-Bjugstad, Benn, & Rask are UFAs let all of them walk and free up around ~3.5m in space
-Dewar, Kahkonen, & Fiala are RFAs that the Wild should extend if possible
Additional cap space - Free up ~21m in cap space depending on Dumba return & not including a potential Goligoski deal* (this decreases to 13m in cap space with the buyouts taking effect)
- Extend Fiala to a 4-5 year - ~$7m per year contract
- Extend Kahkonen to a 3 year - $2.5m deal
- Resign Goligoski for a 1 year - $2.5-3m deal
- Pick up Dewar's RFA year at league minimum
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Note: In addition, I would potentially explore looking to move Talbot's 3.6m salary and identifying a ~2m replacement given his production or lack-there-of. This set of moves would be a stop-gap solution that would get you to the 23-24 season where Rossi/Boldy will hopefully have established themselves & O'Rourke/Hunt/Wallestadt/Beckman would be ready to step in on rookie deals.
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23-24 season
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Kaprizov - Rossi - Zuccarello
Fiala - ______ - Boldy
Greenway - Ek - Foligno
______ - ______ - ______
*Hartman either in 2C or 4th line role depending on ability to internally develop 2nd line C option
***Decisions on retaining Dewar, Gaudreau, Jost, and Duhaime
****Does Beckman fit into this roster?
Brodin - Addison or Hunt
Spurgeon - O'Rourke or Hunt
________ - Addison or Hunt
*Merrill & Mermis in hybrid 3rd pairing/7th D role depending on development during 22-23 season
**Potential opportunity for other prospects to make pushes at a roster spot over Merrill and/or Mermis
Wallestadt
Kahkonen
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*
Note - Beckman in this scenario would be a potential trade candidate as there aren't really near-term scoring roles open.
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I think that this type of direction is the best path forward for the Wild to maximize what they are best at or have the potential to be best at (generating offensive chances & dominating possession as a form of defense while leveraging all of the resources they've spent on the Ek line to shutdown opposing teams top lines using that line to mitigate our weaknesses on D & goal-tending). I think the Wild have defense & goalie issues with or without Dumba in the lineup and I would even make an argument that a lot of the value above replacement that Dumba brings to the table have to do with his mobility & puck-moving skills breaking the puck out & regrouping through the neutral zone & in the offense zone rather than his ability to shut down opposing teams best players (though I would make an argument that the best form of defense is the ability to quickly & cleanly move pucks out of the zone & through the neutral zone to start the attack).
Addison has been consistently solid in the minutes he has gotten during his NHL stints. He will not be as good as Dumba is but he can bring many of the same strengths to the table in terms of skating & puck-moving abilities while even being an improvement on special teams. The Wild, with or without Dumba in the lineup, are going to have inconsistencies and issues with their D & goalie groups until they can start to get the first waves of prospects to the NHL level. The best way, in the interim, for the Wild to maximize their ability to mitigate the lack of talent they have in these areas is to be able to consistently tilt the ice by being able to breakout & regroup efficiently & cleanly as well as have a group of defenseman with the puck skills to be able to active & produce offensively and the patience with the puck to be able to make strong plays that lead to maintaining possession in the offensive zone.
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The Wild really likely only have to make it through next year until they will have an injection of two-way talent that can help them add more physical defenders that can still move the puck well. In the interim, retaining Gologoski & Kulikov along with promoting Addison and to a lesser extent Mermis into the lineup (over Benn/Merrill) should put the Wild in position to have a really strong skating/puck-moving group of defenders albeit undersized. Given the fact that players like O'Rourke & Hunt should be ready to compete for an NHL spot in ~2 years at most & Lambo & Peart maybe arriving as early as the year after that... the solutions the Wild put in place should be short-term.
This pipeline of defensive talent is important. The Wild should be able to build an above-average defensive group over the next 2-3 seasons through internal development alone. The Wild do not have a lot of options to solve the lack of high-end offensive talent in their top 6, especially if the Wild lose Fiala outside of Beckman/Rossi. This means that the Wild would likely have to go external to find top 6 caliber players in a world in which they don't have the cap space to target anyone meaningful.
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O'Rourke & Hunt both project to be big/physical defenseman that can also move the puck offensively albeit not being pure-offensive defenders. I think both should be able to step into the NHL and be "solid" players even if it takes time for them to get comfortable with their puck skills. Partially depending on Addison's development next year, the Wild will be able to choose to shelter them during their introduction to the NHL either by pairing them with Brodin/Spurgeon or in sheltered 3rd line minutes. The bar here for Day 1 readiness is not greatness, it's improvements over Merrill, Kulikov, Goligoski, and Benn.
The other nice thing about signing Fiala to a 4-5 year deal over Dumba is that you essentially lock up your entire top 9 for the next 3-5 years creating a group of forwards that should rank among the best in the league. This allows you to be targeted with a strategy around how to maximize the development of internal assets but also potentially use internal assets to get NHL assets to improve your D/Goalie situation.
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