Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[57special]

LA has quite a lot of center and RD prospects they could send. The problem is that none of them are particularly great. I think most project as middle of the lineup guys, and the ones that don't probably won't be included.

I am wondering if all those supposedly great LA prospects are duds. Too soon to say for Byfield, but in comparison to Stutzle and a few other 2020 draftees(Mercer, Jarvis)he has been a disappointment. Kupari, Madden, and Turcotte are trending the wrong way. Faber is nice, but more of a throw in than a major piece in a Fiala trade.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Didn't realize goaltender was such a need. A lot is going to depend on the health of Matt Murray and how much faith the team has in a) his ability to remain healthy and b) the depth at that position.

At face value though, the Sens were likely going to carry 3 goaltenders next season, so moving a cheap guy like Gustavsson (with upside) could make sense as part of the deal. Would surely be more than #7 + Gus, but it sounds like that could be an easy way for Ottawa to add a bit of value.

The Senators also have a bunch of B/B+ winger prospects who I'm sure they'd have no problem including (Jarventie, Sokolov, Boucher?, Ostapchuk, Lodin) along with a couple of (relatively) high end RHD prospects (Thomson/Bernard-Docker).

Still feels like the Devils are the biggest threat to a Fiala to Ottawa deal. I doubt the Sens could compete if they put #2 and/or Holtz on the block, but beyond them I think the Sens may be the best fit to give Guerin what he's looking for.

Thomson would be a good target for Minnesota. Does he QB the power play for your AHL team?

 

[Bazeek]

I am wondering if all those supposedly great LA prospects are duds. Too soon to say for Byfield, but in comparison to Stutzle and a few other 2020 draftees(Mercer, Jarvis)he has been a disappointment. Kupari, Madden, and Turcotte are trending the wrong way. Faber is nice, but more of a throw in than a major piece in a Fiala trade.

This is big time stat-watching on my part, but for people that watch more college hockey (and especially the Gophers): is there anything that puts Faber a tier up from Peart?

I've seen Faber batted around in a few places as something that might interest Minnesota as part of a Fiala trade, but I'm not sure what the fuss is about.

 

[AKL]

LA is odd because Vilardi and Turcotte would have been interesting pieces a couple years ago but they are big question marks now. The 19th pick would probably be included. Grans could be a decent piece, especially if the organization doesn't trust Addison (which it seems like they don't). I don't see them moving Clarke or Byfield. I dunno, the 19th pick and one of Grans, Turcotte, or Vilardi isn't the most appealing to me compared to what Ottawa or New Jersey could offer

If Grans is even on the table. He's one of the guys they have that's still progressing well, and he has size. I can see why teams would be interested in acquiring him, and it's the same reasons LA would want to keep him.

I think you're right that their 1st would have to be included. After that I think the pieces they'll want us to pick from are Faber, Fagemo, Kupari, Lias Andersson, Thomas, and Madden, and then maybe like a Roy/Walker/Durzi/Iafallo type roster piece.

Byfield and Clarke are definitely off the table, and I still think Turcotte, Kaliyev, Bjornfot and Vilardi aren't going to be offered either.

 

[57special]

Didn't realize goaltender was such a need. A lot is going to depend on the health of Matt Murray and how much faith the team has in a) his ability to remain healthy and b) the depth at that position.

At face value though, the Sens were likely going to carry 3 goaltenders next season, so moving a cheap guy like Gustavsson (with upside) could make sense as part of the deal. Would surely be more than #7 + Gus, but it sounds like that could be an easy way for Ottawa to add a bit of value.

The Senators also have a bunch of B/B+ winger prospects who I'm sure they'd have no problem including (Jarventie, Sokolov, Boucher?, Ostapchuk, Lodin) along with a couple of (relatively) high end RHD prospects (Thomson/Bernard-Docker).

Still feels like the Devils are the biggest threat to a Fiala to Ottawa deal. I doubt the Sens could compete if they put #2 and/or Holtz on the block, but beyond them I think the Sens may be the best fit to give Guerin what he's looking for.

It would be a short term thing, and IMO is not that big of a deal. Talbot has one more year on his deal, and i think we have one guy in the AHL who can give us a year of backup play. The hope is that Wallstedt can come up in 23-24.
I don't think that NJD will give up the #2 for Fiala, but who knows? I do think that this is the draft to trade a #7 oa for a Fiala type, unless Nemec or Jiricek falls there. I think that those guys might be special, and they fit the OTT team.

This is big time stat-watching on my part, but for people that watch more college hockey (and especially the Gophers): is there anything that puts Faber a tier up from Peart?

I've seen Faber batted around in a few places as something that might interest Minnesota as part of a Fiala trade, but I'm not sure what the fuss is about.

Ehh... i like him. Good skater and puck handler. Decent or better defensively. RHD. OK size- not great. I can see him being a top 4 guy, eventually. He is further along than Peart in terms of development, that's all, and is a RHD.

 

[Bazeek]

Ehh... i like him. Good skater and puck handler. Decent or better defensively. RHD. OK size- not great. I can see him being a top 4 guy, eventually. He is further along than Peart in terms of development, that's all, and is a RHD.

Hrm. LA's prospect pool is surprisingly bland.

 

[AKL]

We definitely need more solid RD prospects in the system, I'm just not sure a Fiala trade is where you get them. We need RD, sure, but if we trade Fiala, we need good offensive forwards.

Unless Guerin's plan is to win with a bunch of bottom 6ers like he tried to do this year. And the year before. And the year before.

 

[Bazeek]

We definitely need more solid RD prospects in the system, I'm just not sure a Fiala trade is where you get them. We need RD, sure, but if we trade Fiala, we need good offensive forwards.

Unless Guerin's plan is to win with a bunch of bottom 6ers like he tried to do this year. And the year before. And the year before.

Yeah, RHD is a weakness but several of the LHD in the system have experience playing on the right side. Seems like a weak priority for at trade they can't afford to screw up.

It's a little different with Ottawa where the main piece would presumably be #7. A later 1st plus right-shot-Jack-Peart would be pretty bad.

 

[stempniaksen]

Thomson would be a good target for Minnesota. Does he QB the power play for your AHL team?

He doesn't "QB" it the way someone back there typically would. He's absolutely a threat on the PP, but his bread and butter is his shot, not necessarily his ability run the offence the way a guy like Brannstrom does it (who maybe could be of interest?).

 

[Digitalbooya]

He doesn't "QB" it the way someone back there typically would. He's absolutely a threat on the PP, but his bread and butter is his shot, not necessarily his ability run the offence the way a guy like Brannstrom does it (who maybe could be of interest?).

We have way too many LHD for Brannstrom to be of much interest (Brodin, Middleton, Goligoski, Kulikov, Merrill then Lambos, O’Rourke, Hunt and Peart for prospects).

That’s fair enough. I’m intrigued by Thomson in “Ovechkin’s office” as well.

 

[saywut]

Sens fan coming in peace because I'm about 98% sure Pierre Dorion is going to pay whatever it takes to acquire Fiala (he has a bit of a history of falling in love with players and chasing them for years, see Duchene, Matt).

Trying to figure out the Wild's biggest needs as far as prospects are concerned. Is there a particular position group that y'all need filled more than another? Or are you more interested in guys who are close to making an impact given the good season the team had?

#7 overall seems like it would be locked into any trade, I'm just trying to figure out what the other pieces may be (if not Pinto/Greig who are clearly the top 2 guys who might be available).

In terms of Ottawa's pool I'd probably lean to Jarventie or Boucher. Given where Boucher was picked a year ago I wouldn't expect him to be the add to #7. I'd have no issue with #7 + Jarventie, it would be around where I'd value Holtz straight up from NJ.

I could see a trade built around Greig instead of #7 to be honest, though trying to figure out the other pieces is a little awkward. 3 year ELC to overlap the bad buy-out years and can probably play half of that in the NHL. Plays the game the way Guerin/Evason seem to want. IF #7 + Greig for Fiala + Minnesota 1st was on the table I think that would be preferred to the above offer, though I do feel Greig's range of value is significantly varied depending on who you ask.

In terms of goalies I'm not convinced of Murray even at 50% being of interest. Not sure if there would be enough confidence in Gustavsson after his struggles this past season, but we do have Pittsburgh ties with Guerin/Shero so they are familiar with these 2.

 

[keppel146]

Yeah if I’m dealing with LA maybe Fagemo/Turcotte+19th+ Faber for Fiala+small add if needed.

 

[stempniaksen]

We have way too many LHD for Brannstrom to be of much interest (Brodin, Middleton, Goligoski, Kulikov, Merrill then Lambos, O’Rourke, Hunt and Peart for prospects).

That’s fair enough. I’m intrigued by Thomson in “Ovechkin’s office” as well.

For what it's worth, Brannstrom played pretty exclusively on the right side before getting to Ottawa and has arguably played his best hockey in Ottawa during his brief stints on the right side. DJ Smith just seems intent on ruining this kids career for reasons I don't particularly understand. There's certainly more risk baked in with Brannstrom given his size. Thomson actually seems to be tracking as more of a shutdown guy with a bomb of a shot so is the much safer option of the two (and is an actual RHD to boot).

 

[Victorious Secret]

Why not Fiala + for Chychrun? As a D side agnostic person. Also gives the batch of LD in the stable time to develop, as typical. Shed salary, get overall better, and a good player that is a UFA when we have money. Makes getting rid of Dumba more palatable.

I don't know what it would take to balance the trade. Addison for a late first/2nd? O'Rourke?

 

[Bazeek]

Why not Fiala + for Chychrun? As a D side agnostic person. Also gives the batch of LD in the stable time to develop, as typical. Shed salary, get overall better, and a good player that is a UFA when we have money. Makes getting rid of Dumba more palatable.

I don't know what it would take to balance the trade. Addison for a late first/2nd? O'Rourke?

I think mostly because Arizona's pretty salary-averse right now. They're also one of a few teams that I think Fiala might outright refuse to sign with.

 

[57special]

I think mostly because Arizona's pretty salary-averse right now. They're also one of a few teams that I think Fiala might outright refuse to sign with.

I also think that ignoring RHD, and adding a young LHD when we have Brodin, Middleton(?), Kulikov, goligoski, Merrill, ROR, Hunt, Lambos, Peart strikes me as borderline crazy. This team has holes, but LHD is not one of them.

 

[Bazeek]

I also think that ignoring RHD, and adding a young LHD when we have Brodin, Middleton(?), Kulikov, goligoski, Merrill, ROR, Hunt, Lambos, Peart strikes me as borderline crazy. This team has holes, but LHD is not one of them.

There's that, too.

I guess the big question for this offseason is how much management agrees with the local groupthink in prioritizing the future above the present for the next few years. Chychrun's contract would be valuable if Guerin was trying to patch the boat for a few Cup runs over the next few years... but I really hope he's not trying to do that.

It probably wouldn't be Chychrun, but I do dread the possibility that the primary piece coming back for Fiala is someone that can "help now."

 

[Wabit]

I also think that ignoring RHD, and adding a young LHD when we have Brodin, Middleton(?), Kulikov, goligoski, Merrill, ROR, Hunt, Lambos, Peart strikes me as borderline crazy. This team has holes, but LHD is not one of them.

I see that list as Brodin + prospects + LD that are just NHL warm bodies.

Brodin/Dumba
Chychrun/Spurgeon
Middleton/Addison (Goli)

Kulikov traded for a bucket of pucks. Merrill in the AHL or lost to waivers. Prospects are prospects, they' be ready (or not) when they are.

 

[57special]

I see that list as Brodin + prospects + LD that are just NHL warm bodies.

Brodin/Dumba
Chychrun/Spurgeon
Middleton/Addison (Goli)

Kulikov traded for a bucket of pucks. Merrill in the AHL or lost to waivers. Prospects are prospects, they' be ready (or not) when they are.

That's a fantasy that Guerin does not share. He just re-signed Merrill and Goligoski. Middleton is good enough to be a 2nd pairing guy. I'll be happy if he finds a way to move Kulikov, and gives Addison a shot, but i am not holding my breath.

 

[Mnsportsfan22]

Trade fiala for Holtz
Trade jost for the best pick you can get
trade kulikov or merril for the best pick you can get

Kap (9m) - Hartman (1.7m) - Zucc (6m)
Greenway (3m) - Ek (5.25m) - Foligno (3.1m)
Boldy (880k) - rossi(880k)- Holtz (950k)
Duhaime (750k) - gaudreau(1.2)-dewar(1)
13th (1)

Brodin (6m) - Addison (795k)
Middleton (3?) - Spurgeon (7.575m)
Kulikov(2.5m)-dumba(6m)
Goligoski(2)

Talbot (3.666m)
Fluery (3.5?)
=around 68.5million
13 million dead cap so 81 million.
1.5 million remains for cushion and maybe trade deadline space.
Time to start relying on some kids. Let them grow next year while staying i believe still a playoff team.

 

[Webster]

Trade fiala for Holtz
Trade jost for the best pick you can get
trade kulikov or merril for the best pick you can get

Kap (9m) - Hartman (1.7m) - Zucc (6m)
Greenway (3m) - Ek (5.25m) - Foligno (3.1m)
Boldy (880k) - rossi(880k)- Holtz (950k)
Duhaime (750k) - gaudreau(1.2)-dewar(1)
13th (1)

Brodin (6m) - Addison (795k)
Middleton (3?) - Spurgeon (7.575m)
Kulikov(2.5m)-dumba(6m)
Goligoski(2)

Talbot (3.666m)
Fluery (3.5?)
=around 68.5million
13 million dead cap so 81 million.
1.5 million remains for cushion and maybe trade deadline space.
Time to start relying on some kids. Let them grow next year while staying i believe still a playoff team.

This doesn't look bad, but Russo said he thinks Evason doesn't trust Addison because of his limited frame.

 

[Wabit]

This doesn't look bad, but Russo said he thinks Evason doesn't trust Addison because of his limited frame.

I can believe that. It would also help explain Spurgeon's usage since Evason took over.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Here's the (unlikely) salty runback:

Middleton -> late 2nd/3rd
Kulikov -> 3rd
Jost -> 3rd
3rd -> Filip Gustavsson (or insert another goalie/cheap UFA)

Fiala: $7M x 7 years (he comes down a bit in AAV for the 7 year term)
Dewar: $.850M x 2 years

Kap(9)-Hartman(1.7)-Zucc(6)
Greenway(3)-Ek(5.25)-Foligno(3.1)
Fiala(7)-Gaudreau(1.2)-Boldy(.881)
Dewar(.850)-Hentges(.855)-Duhaime(.750)
Shaw(.750)

$40.336M

Brodin(6)-Dumba(6)
Goligoski(2)-Spurgeon(7.575)
Merrill(1.2)-Addison(.795)
Mermis(.750)

$24.32M

Talbot (3.667)
Gustavsson/Other (.788)

$4.455M

Dead Cap: $12.744M
Total Cap: $81.855
Cap Ceiling: $82.5M

Am I missing something here? I feel like we can absolutely bring back all three of Zucc, Dumba and Fiala based on the above.

 

[Wabit]

Evolving hockey has Fiala at a 6 yr $50m price tag ($8.6mAAV). It's not gospel, but it is pretty good.

A $7m x 7 deal would be a huge hometown discount for him to take. For some odd reason I just don't think Fiala will be much inclined to take a hometown discount for GMBG.

 

[AKL]

For some odd reason I just don't think Fiala will be much inclined to take a hometown discount for GMBG.

Not weird, wild.