Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[Webster]

He's more likely to get traded than re-signed IMO.

I wouldn't say that if he continues to produce well above his salary worth. Then you have this close bond to Kaprizov, and now with Kulikov gone Zucc is the only other player who speaks Russian.

 

[TaLoN]

I wouldn't say that if he continues to produce well above his salary worth. Then you have this close bond to Kaprizov, and now with Kulikov gone Zucc is the only other player who speaks Russian.

The "bond" isn't why Kap plays hockey. Please stop acting like it is.

 

[BagHead]

I didn’t really care if we got ER, but not doing anything with this cap space means that we downgraded our goalie position this year simply because Guerin mismanaged the relationship. He’s made a habit of that since he’s got here (Staal, Fiala, Suter, Menell).

I don’t know if this math is right, but CapFriendly has us at $26.6M in TDL cap space right now. With Rossi and Addison on the roster it’ll be $19M (their contracts are 29% of overall cap space). We obviously don’t need $19M in cap space at the TDL, so I just don’t see Guerin making these moves for cap.

It's yet to be seen if the goaltending is a downgrade. Talbot was below average for much of his time here. I think moving Talbot for a goalie who still has at least some potential was a fine move. Talbot isn't going to get better, but Gustavsson still may. I will say on the counterpoint, though, he's in nearly the same boat as Kahkonen was.

As far as not using the cap goes, I'm glad at least one Wild GM is showing some restraint there. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should do something. Maybe he could have gotten someone useful on a 1 year deal (though who I don't know), but that cap is going to hopefully be needed in the next couple years for extensions.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I'm 100% convinced that the market for Dumba isn't bare, per se, it's just the market for Dumba at the exorbitant price Guerin is charging is bare.

Fully agree there is a market for him. Just not for a first lrobably

 

[Spurgeon]

It's yet to be seen if the goaltending is a downgrade. Talbot was below average for much of his time here. I think moving Talbot for a goalie who still has at least some potential was a fine move. Talbot isn't going to get better, but Gustavsson still may. I will say on the counterpoint, though, he's in nearly the same boat as Kahkonen was.

As far as not using the cap goes, I'm glad at least one Wild GM is showing some restraint there. Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should do something. Maybe he could have gotten someone useful on a 1 year deal (though who I don't know), but that cap is going to hopefully be needed in the next couple years for extensions.

Gustavsson getting better is unlikely to have an impact on the team past this season. If Wallstedt is ready, then Gus is gone. Talbot was better than Fleury at the end of the year, but he got gipped in the playoffs. I called it when the initial Kahkonen trade happened, trading for Fleury would create an awkward dynamic this off-season & it did. That whole situation is avoided by trading Talbot at the TDL instead of Kahkonen. For as much shit as Fenton got for how he handled relationships, it feels like there's been more blatantly obvious examples with Guerin.

I disagree on the cap. When you've got 12M in dead cap (and 14M the following 2 seasons), you better take advantage of every dollar you can to remain competitive. Nino @ a $4M AAV would've been a nice signing and would've done a good job of filling the massive hole that Fiala left. Definitely a chance he wasn't interested in signing here, but there were other moves that could've been explored (Bjorkstrand @ $5.4M for a 3rd & a 4th was a steal).

It feels like Guerin gets undeserved praise for moves that just aren't good. Downgrading the team and getting no assets except cap space is not a good move unless you actually utilize that cap space. I have a feeling we're going to see some major regression this upcoming season.

 

[Ban Hammered]

I'm 100% convinced that the market for Dumba isn't bare, per se, it's just the market for Dumba at the exorbitant price Guerin is charging is bare.

So for some trades, people have been mad that Guerin has tried to make a fair deal, not attempting to "win" the trade...now for this one, you're mad that Guerin is, or may be, asking for too much?

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Cap space accrues throughout the season, 4MM now will quickly grow and allow us to target an actually good player if needed. Most people still peg us as a competitive playoff team, we have young players that are going to get a shot on the roster early, if they are not ready then we have the cap space to make moves quickly to address it, including at goalie. The league is extremely cap tight right now, there are a lot of advantages to being a team with room in the current environment.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

So for some trades, people have been mad that Guerin has tried to make a fair deal, not attempting to "win" the trade...now for this one, you're mad that Guerin is, or may be, asking for too much?

He isnt mad about it, just stating there is a market for him. nothing in his comment shows anger.

 

[Ban Hammered]

He isnt mad about it, just stating there is a market for him. nothing in his comment shows anger.

Ok, so mad may not have been the right word choice there, but that isn't the point to be focusing on...

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Ok, so mad may not have been the right word choice there, but that isn't the point to be focusing on...

indeed your point is why is everyone just unpleasant with him for no reason which also isnt the case. Webster said Dumba has no market so why would we get Horvat for him, AKL stated he thinks there is a market just not a big one for the return Geurin is asking for. none of which stating BG sucks for asking for too much for Dumba.

It is just stating an opinion that the ask for Dumba is probaby higher and creating a smaller market when there is obviously a larger market if the price come down.

nobody is bashing BG either way if it is too high or too low.

If I am still missing your point somehow, please fill me in.

 

[BagHead]

Gustavsson getting better is unlikely to have an impact on the team past this season. If Wallstedt is ready, then Gus is gone. Talbot was better than Fleury at the end of the year, but he got gipped in the playoffs. I called it when the initial Kahkonen trade happened, trading for Fleury would create an awkward dynamic this off-season & it did. That whole situation is avoided by trading Talbot at the TDL instead of Kahkonen. For as much shit as Fenton got for how he handled relationships, it feels like there's been more blatantly obvious examples with Guerin.

I disagree on the cap. When you've got 12M in dead cap (and 14M the following 2 seasons), you better take advantage of every dollar you can to remain competitive. Nino @ a $4M AAV would've been a nice signing and would've done a good job of filling the massive hole that Fiala left. Definitely a chance he wasn't interested in signing here, but there were other moves that could've been explored (Bjorkstrand @ $5.4M for a 3rd & a 4th was a steal).

It feels like Guerin gets undeserved praise for moves that just aren't good. Downgrading the team and getting no assets except cap space is not a good move unless you actually utilize that cap space. I have a feeling we're going to see some major regression this upcoming season.

I sort of view it as a gumballs today vs steak tomorrow situation. I'd rather we wait in the wings as opportunists than just blow the money today on something we may or may not need. We don't know right now what we'll actually need most this season until the games start to get played, but we can really only make one more move if we do it now. If we wait we can either address multiple deficiencies as the cap space accrues, or we can address a really big one when the opportunity presents itself.

 

[57special]

I think Dumba is one of those players who will have more value the closer he gets to the TDL, when his cap hit becomes less of an issue, especially due to our ability (at present) to retain on him.

In the past year or two, potential trade partners had to be turned off by his lack of offensive production relative to his cap hit. When he got his 6M/yr deal, it was with the assumption that he would netting 45-50 pts./yr, and being featured on the PP. That has not happened. Still an asset, but just not a 6M/yr asset...though with some of the contracts being given out recently, he's getting closer to that.

I sort of view it as a gumballs today vs steak tomorrow situation. I'd rather we wait in the wings as opportunists than just blow the money today on something we may or may not need. We don't know right now what we'll actually need most this season until the games start to get played, but we can really only make one more move if we do it now. If we wait we can either address multiple deficiencies as the cap space accrues, or we can address a really big one when the opportunity presents itself.

I was just going to "like" but felt that wasn't strong enough. I SUPER LIKE this!

 

[Ban Hammered]

indeed your point is why is everyone just unpleasant with him for no reason which also isnt the case. Webster said Dumba has no market so why would we get Horvat for him, AKL stated he thinks there is a market just not a big one for the return Geurin is asking for. none of which stating BG sucks for asking for too much for Dumba.

It is just stating an opinion that the ask for Dumba is probaby higher and creating a smaller market when there is obviously a larger market if the price come down.

nobody is bashing BG either way if it is too high or too low.

If I am still missing your point somehow, please fill me in.

The point is, Guerin gets ripped for not "winning" trades, for looking for fair deals, but now the poster in question is "convinced" without evidence I might add...that Guerin is asking for too much for Dumba. So one one way of doing trades, he gets ripped...and the other way of doing trades, he's still being criticized, albeit in a round about way, that Dumba's market is dry not because other teams may not want to trade for him, but because of something Guerin is doing. So he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Should we just dump Dumba because posters want him gone? Or should Guerin do what he's been criticized for not doing, getting the best deal he can? IMO, you can't have it both ways.
The fact that AKL is the poster in question, is irrelevant. I'd make the exact same comparison no matter who was "convinced" about Guerin's asking price.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

The point is, Guerin gets ripped for not "winning" trades, for looking for fair deals, but now the poster in question is "convinced" without evidence I might add...that Guerin is asking for too much for Dumba. So one one way of doing trades, he gets ripped...and the other way of doing trades, he's still being criticized, albeit in a round about way, that Dumba's market is dry not because other teams may not want to trade for him, but because of something Guerin is doing. So he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. Should we just dump Dumba because posters want him gone? Or should Guerin do what he's been criticized for not doing, getting the best deal he can? IMO, you can't have it both ways.
The fact that AKL is the poster in question, is irrelevant. I'd make the exact same comparison no matter who was "convinced" about Guerin's asking price.

Russo who is clued in more than any of us has stated the market for him is very little. As 57 stated above his cap hit and production are probably a good reason for that. If we are willing to just trade him for a 7th im sure that market would be bigger.

Turning this into ripping BG is just far too defensive. I like what BG has done for the most part here but this is far from ripping him. It is simply stating the ask is probably too high for a lot of teams given the current state of Dumba. It is fine to disagree and argue it differently but its not an argument needing to be directed at BG should do this instead of that, its an argument on what Dumbas market value and ask is or should be and that is up for debate as some see him as nothing better than a 7th (exaggerated) and others think he can pull a late 1st simply for being a RHD.

 

[Ban Hammered]

Russo who is clued in more than any of us has stated the market for him is very little. As 57 stated above his cap hit and production are probably a good reason for that. If we are willing to just trade him for a 7th im sure that market would be bigger.

Turning this into ripping BG is just far too defensive. I like what BG has done for the most part here but this is far from ripping him. It is simply stating the ask is probably too high for a lot of teams given the current state of Dumba. It is fine to disagree and argue it differently but its not an argument needing to be directed at BG should do this instead of that, its an argument on what Dumbas market value and ask is or should be and that is up for debate as some see him as nothing better than a 7th (exaggerated) and others think he can pull a late 1st simply for being a RHD.

You are missing what I'm arguing.
I'm saying...Guerin gets ripped for not "winning trades" but then you have people saying Dumba isn't being moved because the ask is too high. So one one hand, he's not getting enough, and gets ripped, and on the other, he's asking too much for a player. Is he being directly ripped for that? No, but it is implied. And I have seen people ripping him for not getting rid of Dumba...more specfically related to keeping Fiala which I can already see will be the beaten to death topic here this season.
So, should the Wild GM, go for fair trades, or try to win them? Because "winning" them, would be getting "too much" for a player right?
So from my vantage point, he's either criticized because he's not getting enough, or criticized for not moving a player fast enough. Criticism of the GM should make sense, and in that vein, it most certainly doesn't.

 

[TaLoN]

You are missing what I'm arguing.
I'm saying...Guerin gets ripped for not "winning trades" but then you have people saying Dumba isn't being moved because the ask is too high. So one one hand, he's not getting enough, and gets ripped, and on the other, he's asking too much for a player. Is he being directly ripped for that? No, but it is implied. And I have seen people ripping him for not getting rid of Dumba...more specfically related to keeping Fiala which I can already see will be the beaten to death topic here this season.
So, should the Wild GM, go for fair trades, or try to win them? Because "winning" them, would be getting "too much" for a player right?
So from my vantage point, he's either criticized because he's not getting enough, or criticized for not moving a player fast enough. Criticism of the GM should make sense, and in that vein, it most certainly doesn't.

You're projecting. Nobody is saying he should be moved at all at the price the market says. Just pointing out that there is a market level that would likely be far from bare. You are wanting to see criticism, so you see it, and thus are feeling the need to defend against it.

It was a statement about the market being bare or not based on the price being asked, not whether the move should be made at the price a market would prove not to be bare.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

You are missing what I'm arguing.
I'm saying...Guerin gets ripped for not "winning trades" but then you have people saying Dumba isn't being moved because the ask is too high. So one one hand, he's not getting enough, and gets ripped, and on the other, he's asking too much for a player. Is he being directly ripped for that? No, but it is implied. And I have seen people ripping him for not getting rid of Dumba...more specfically related to keeping Fiala which I can already see will be the beaten to death topic here this season.
So, should the Wild GM, go for fair trades, or try to win them? Because "winning" them, would be getting "too much" for a player right?
So from my vantage point, he's either criticized because he's not getting enough, or criticized for not moving a player fast enough. Criticism of the GM should make sense, and in that vein, it most certainly doesn't.

im fulling understanding what you are saying and i disagree that the point you are pushing is being poked at in this but instead of going in circles i will concede and we can move on.

 

[Ban Hammered]

You're projecting. Nobody is saying he should be moved at all at the price the market says. Just pointing out that there is a market level that would likely be far from bare. You are wanting to see criticism, so you see it, and thus are feeling the need to defend against it.

It was a statement about the market being bare or not based on the price being asked, not whether the move should be made at the price a market would prove not to be bare.

I'm not projecting, I'm asking criticism to make sense...but whatever.

 

[TaLoN]

I'm not projecting, I'm asking criticism to make sense...but whatever.

There was no criticism here to make sense of in the first place.

 

[Ban Hammered]

There was no criticism here to make sense of in the first place.

And I disagree.

 

[TaLoN]

And I disagree.

That's why i said you're projecting.

 

[Ban Hammered]

That's why i said you're projecting.

No, I'm disagreeing.

 

[AKL]

No, I'm disagreeing.

I'm not even sure how it's possible to disagree about what MY intent was. It's MY intent and you never asked me about it.

 

[thestonedkoala]

You are missing what I'm arguing.
I'm saying...Guerin gets ripped for not "winning trades" but then you have people saying Dumba isn't being moved because the ask is too high. So one one hand, he's not getting enough, and gets ripped, and on the other, he's asking too much for a player. Is he being directly ripped for that? No, but it is implied. And I have seen people ripping him for not getting rid of Dumba...more specfically related to keeping Fiala which I can already see will be the beaten to death topic here this season.
So, should the Wild GM, go for fair trades, or try to win them? Because "winning" them, would be getting "too much" for a player right?
So from my vantage point, he's either criticized because he's not getting enough, or criticized for not moving a player fast enough. Criticism of the GM should make sense, and in that vein, it most certainly doesn't.

Okay, I'll bite:

Guerin got ripped for trading Fiala and his comments afterwards. He didn't want to leverage teams, and he didn't want to BS anybody. That sets precedent and many GMs may see his ask as not fair. Guerin is contradicting himself. He didn't want to wait for the draft, didn't want to leverage teams and he wanted a fair offer. And yet for Dumba, who is a UFA, he is waiting it out (Dumba could pull a Gaborik and get injured and then walk at the end of the season).

Guerin is getting criticized because on one hand, he moved Fiala pretty damn fast and some think for not enough pieces. On the other hand, he isn't coming down from his price tag on Dumba and seems to be okay waiting it out.

 

[Ban Hammered]

Okay, I'll bite:

Guerin got ripped for trading Fiala and his comments afterwards. He didn't want to leverage teams, and he didn't want to BS anybody. That sets precedent and many GMs may see his ask as not fair. Guerin is contradicting himself. He didn't want to wait for the draft, didn't want to leverage teams and he wanted a fair offer. And yet for Dumba, who is a UFA, he is waiting it out (Dumba could pull a Gaborik and get injured and then walk at the end of the season).

Guerin is getting criticized because on one hand, he moved Fiala pretty damn fast and some think for not enough pieces. On the other hand, he isn't coming down from his price tag on Dumba and seems to be okay waiting it out.

Do we know, for sure, that his ask has not come down?
I don't see it as contradicting himself at all. There was a market for Fiala, one he deemed fair, so he took it. From all accounts there isn't that market, one he would see as fair, on Dumba.