Trade and Free Agency Discussion Thread - Don't Expect More Augmenting

[SeaOfBlue]

this has always been a point with the Leafs that i have hated ...your 'best' players should play at the most important times, and that includes PK.
if you run a bunch of 3rd/4th liners on the PK, then why not also have them close out the last 2 mins in a 1 goal game too. ...reason you dont, is they arent good enough to be out there when it counts late, but, you are counting on them every time you are short handed.
Boston/TB on the PK play their top line players, and when they get the puck, they are very dangerous, our PKers are just hoping to clear the zone most of the time.
I really hope that changes this season!!

Tampa does not put out their top guys (Kucherov, Stamkos, Point) on the PK all that much. They put out guys like Coleman, Cirelli, Killorn, etc. Still good players, but far from their top guys.

The Leafs are not a team which hopes to clear the puck. We are top 5 in both CF/60 and xGF/60 on the PK (ahead of both Boston and Tampa), but we were only middle of the pack when it came to actual GF (tied with Boston and one less than Tampa). We have guys like Kerfoot, Hyman, Marner, Mikheyev and Engvall (plus we used to have Kapanen who did the same sort of thing) who always look for ways to intercept pucks and take it the other way to score if they have the chance.

Part of the reason why your top guys are not on the PK is because you want them to be playing more when they can be effective (PP and ES) and you are putting them at risk of getting hurt more often than in other scenarios. Boston puts out Marchand and Bergeron, but they are also two of the better defensive players in the league so at least it makes some sense to do that. Many teams do not choose to put their top guys out there (MacKinnon, McDavid, Eichel, etc. all play limited PK minutes).

You also put the top guys out at ES in the final 2 minutes because there is no inherent expectation that you should be hemmed in your own zone in that time, even if you are leading. If you expect your top guys to shut down their top guys, and I believe our guys can, then they will be out there. If you are on the PK, you should obviously hope that you can get it out at some point, but barring the other team's PP absolutely sucking, you are going to be hemmed in for some time... And you are having guys who practice and train to be effective PKer's... It is not like you can just tell someone to PK and expect them to be good at it.

 

[HomelessPepper]

On the other hand look at the stats. The numbers speak for themselves.

It's just funny that with Nylander, his point ceiling is 1 pt LOWER than his projected points total this year. Yet for Marner, his ceiling is 5 points above his highest total (projected for this season), with a + added.

It's a perfect example of bias, really.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[baton elevated]

Got less than Connor Brown . Who would you rather have? Rhetorical question.

 

[Crosscrease14]

It's just funny that with Nylander, his point ceiling is 1 pt LOWER than his projected points total this year. Yet for Marner, his ceiling is 5 points above his highest total (projected for this season), with a + added.

It's a perfect example of bias, really.

Nylander's best season was 61 points. Last year he had 59 in 68. 71 point pace last year.

Marner hit 94! and had 67 in 59 games last year. 93 point pace.

I don't think the projections are unreasonable and I already admitted I probably favour Marner so what are you getting at?

 

[nuck]

If I'm forced to decide, and I think they will be eventually, Tavares is the player I'd want to move. I like the player a lot, I like that he wanted to come here. The NMC could be a problem but maybe not. He was considering other offers before coming here. There might be a destination he and his wife would want. Just accept that the return wouldn't be great in this scenario.

I would absolutely consider JT a sunk cost. If the club wants to moves some forward money to fix their cap it has to be one of the guys without the NM. To even ask after the suction they used to bring him in would be an unacceptable embarrassment for the organization. Dubas knew what he was doing when he signed him and what he was likely to look like the last couple of years of his deal. Tavares will finish his deal as a Leaf and it won't look nearly as bad when the cap is $90M.

I am not a JT fanboy but it is funny how some on this board are kind of writing him off after one off season. He scored at a 78 point pace in a #2c role? He was 28 years old he isn't out of gas And Mitch Marner will top 20 goals and Morgan Rielly will exceed 50 points again too. Tavares followed his Islanders 86pt season with a 70 point year and still bounced back with better years. At 28 Sundin scored a ppg and at 36 he scored more. Slumps happen and this was barely a slump.

People need to relax and think before they start spewing things that may look pretty stupid in the near future. Not you Shadow but other have been making some confidant assumptions based on a 63 game sample of a club that had dealt with several challenges.

 

[nuck]

Nylander's best season was 61 points. Last year he had 59 in 68. 71 point pace last year.

Marner hit 94! and had 67 in 51 games last year. 107 point pace last year.

Doesn't take a mathematician to figure out who the better player is lol. If anything I underrated Marner based on his production last season.

Perhaps you're unwilling to admit you have a bias against Marner?

Marner played 59 games so a 93 point pace. And scoring at a 22g clip is maybe a concern. His closest analogs have always been Kane and Thornton and both showed more goal scoring by now. Maybe he will have some 30-70 seasons. I'm not sure how much more he can do from the wing. I thought when he was younger he has a Denis Savard skill set but he doesn't seem to be any faster or any stronger than two years ago so the organic growth hasn't done what it could have.

I think any Nylander comparisons have been beat to death. Willie will never get close to 100 pts and Mitch will never earn only $7M.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Marner played 59 games so a 93 point pace.

Thanks for noticing that

 

[nuck]

Thanks for noticing that

The argument is still fundamentally the same. I would be stunned if Willie ever hit 85 points. I would not be surprised if Marner had multiple 100+pt seasons. You guys are arguing apples and oranges fueled by the cost difference of the two. Neither will be convinced by the other.

 

[HomelessPepper]

I don't think the projections are unreasonable and I already admitted I probably favour Marner so what are you getting at?

Your projections are biased. That's what I'm getting at. You can't be taken seriously when you're showing very obvious biases. Your opinions aren't fact, so stop stating them that way.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Your projections are biased. That's what I'm getting at. You can't be taken seriously when you're showing very obvious biases. Your opinions aren't fact, so stop stating them that way.

I never said it was a fact but I did lay out the stats of each player which are irrefutable.

I already said I like Nylander as a player but he's a 60 to 71* point forward based on his history. Marner is a 90+ point forward. We have multiple seasons of evidence.

I don't see how this is disputable. The stats are the stats.

Like another poster said it's stupid to argue. I like both players and I hope they both have 100+ point seasons. I'd happily eat crow

 

[meefer]

would you trade Tavares, and retain 50% for Mattias Janmark (Kerfoot), Nick Seeler(Holl), Adam Boqvist(Sandin), a 1st and 2nd in 21? ...because that would be the equivalent offer from Chicago, and likely a better offer to boot, as their picks project higher

Well, if I've stated the team is in rebuild mode, that JT had three years left on his contract and not 5, that JT has said that winning is his biggest priority, I'd at least have to consider it, wouldn't I? My stated goal is to rebuild the team. Are three years of John Tavares going to help me more than what the return is going to offer?

 

[justashadowof]

Expensive forwards on the PK taking point shots off their legs doesn't seem how this team is going to work from this point forward.

 

[Cor]

 

[Nooodles]

Expensive forwards on the PK taking point shots off their legs doesn't seem how this team is going to work from this point forward.

Worked pretty well for the Bruins the last I heard.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Worked pretty well for the Bruins the last I heard.

Also helps when your goalie is making saves too. Andersen was bottom 10 in PK, just like he was bottom 10 in pretty much every other area, last year. He was bottom 10 in PK last year too, and predictably our PK did not do that well. Two years ago, he was much better (similar to Boston, but not quite as good with high danger stuff) and we were top 10. However we were giving up a lot more, and better, chances than we had the past two years. Same with three years ago.

Maybe Andersen needs a bad PK in front of him to do well, because he went from one of the best to one of the worst as soon as the PK in front of him did better.

If we had Andersen from 2 or 3 years ago behind the PK we have right now, we probably have a top 3 PK in the league, and better than Boston's.

There are also teams with better PK's than Boston who do not use stars. They just so happen to use their stars, and it works decently well for them, but if they were expecting offense out of them, they don't get much.

 

[Avilaj07]

I think there's a good chance you might see Engvall traded for futures. The bottom six is extremely crowded with

Kerfoot
Simmonds
Vessey
Spezza
Thornton
Barabanov
Anderson
Korshkov
Malgin

Moving Engvall gives us some breathing room cap wise. Besides his first week or two after his call up, he really tailed off and doesn't really bring much minus his speed.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Got less than Connor Brown . Who would you rather have? Rhetorical question.

Bertuzzi by a mile. I know everyone here seems to remember Conor Brown fondly, I think he was useless.

On the Bertuzzi note boy is he overrated by Detroit fans, wouldn't trade him for Nylander apparently. Their board says they'd only move him for Werenski...hfboards posters say the darndest things.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think there's a good chance you might see Engvall traded for futures. The bottom six is extremely crowded with

Kerfoot
Simmonds
Vessey
Spezza
Thornton
Barabanov
Anderson
Korshkov
Malgin

Moving Engvall gives us some breathing room cap wise. Besides his first week or two after his call up, he really tailed off and doesn't really bring much minus his speed.

I think they still like him for this year. Maybe next year, depending on how he does.

 

[Cor]

I think there's a good chance you might see Engvall traded for futures. The bottom six is extremely crowded with

Kerfoot
Simmonds
Vessey
Spezza
Thornton
Barabanov
Anderson
Korshkov
Malgin

Moving Engvall gives us some breathing room cap wise. Besides his first week or two after his call up, he really tailed off and doesn't really bring much minus his speed.

I'd disagree. Engvall is very valuable defensively. He also doesn't require waivers, so there's no need to just dump him. At worst, he can be sent down or kept on a taxi squad, assuming there will be one. Engvall/Kerfoot/Mikheyev was a very strong third line for us in the time they played together.

Korshkov is a guy I feel we can just keep in the KHL on his loan for the year, and then he can join the Marlies when he's done there. He's done really well, and might be best to let him ride.

Malgin will likely be a non-factor. Might be on a taxi squad if there is one. Joey Anderson is tougher to judge. I like him, but just based on what we have, he seems like more of a factor in the 21-22 lineup, than the 20-21 lineup. I wonder if the Leafs are trying to get him on a 2 year deal right now for that reason.

 

[Leafs1991]

Bertuzzi by a mile. I know everyone here seems to remember Conor Brown fondly, I think he was useless.

On the Bertuzzi note boy is he overrated by Detroit fans, wouldn't trade him for Nylander apparently. Their board says they'd only move him for Werenski...hfboards posters say the darndest things.

I'll be honest, if the guy puts up 30 goals and 50 to 60 points this season and the next, I'd be for it. Bertuzzi brings an element to the game that Nylander doesn't. You ose skill but gain someone who can hit, forecheck, protect the puck etc.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'll be honest, if the guy puts up 30 goals and 50 to 60 points this season and the next, I'd be for it. Bertuzzi brings an element to the game that Nylander doesn't. You ose skill but gain someone who can hit, forecheck, protect the puck etc.

Bertuzzi is not a core player. He is a guy who can ride shotgun with good players and keep up enough to look really good, but if he does not have those players, he is not good enough to do it on his own.

That is valuable, but Nylander is a whole other tier (or even two) higher than Bertuzzi. You can find guys who may not be quite as good as Bertuzzi, but can provide a lot of the core value he brings, quite easily for not a large cost. You can't find many guys who can do what Nylander can do for a team, and those guys are not cheap.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Perry and Ottawa in the rumour mill.

 

[Magic Man]

Perry and Ottawa in the rumour mill.

The Leafs are simply capped out or I think they would have signed him too and he wouldn't be sniffing around Ottawa. Nothing left over too spend. I do think if he signs cheap in Ottawa and then they retain 50% at the deadline the Leafs could make it happen with accrued cap space. He could be their deadline add for a mid rounder.

 

[pspot]

really like what Ottawa has done.....looking forward to a renewed battle of Ontario