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GDT: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers *10PM on TSN*

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Do Leafs win both games?

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IIRC one of Brodie's weaknesses is winning those board battles (along with not being that strong in front of the net). Combine that will Rielly's struggles and that's why they've been prone to get hemmed in. Once they get the puck though, they can move it extremely well. Getting the puck is key.
 
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Zybalto said:
The big disappointment has actually been performance under Rielly/Brodie of all things but they have been given tough comp and are being less sheltered than Muzzin/Holl for zone starts.

Rielly/Brodie:

CF% 48.72
xGF% 39.90

Other Pairings without Rielly or Brodie on them:

CF% 57.67
xGF% 56.07

I'm confident they can turn it around though, hopefully starting with the Oilers.....and if not them, a date with the worst defensive team in hockey might just be what the doctor ordered with 3 games against the Canucks.
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true, this is a good point. Rielly and Brodie have to get much better, especially since Muzzin/Holl are doing the heavy lifting more now. The problem with facing Edmonton and Vancouver is that they will have to be strong against good offensive players, and that seems to be a big concern for them
 
CantLoseWithMatthews said:
Last year under Babcock:
53.5 cf% (2nd)
2.19 xGF/60 (19th)
2.3 xGA/60 (20th)
48.8 xGF% (21st)
10.2 hdcf/60 (19th)
10.9 hdca/60 (23rd)
48.3 hdcf% (23rd)

This year so far:
52.7 cf% (10th)
2.08 xGF/60 (19th)
2.2 xGA/60 (20th)
48.5 xGF% (18th)
9.73 hdcf/60 (17th)
10.7 hdca/60 (23rd)
47.7 hdcf% (21st)

Good record, but not a very inspiring performance overall. It could easily be a lot worse if things don't improve
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The numbers I look up say this:

Under Babcock last year (23gms) ---> this year so far (8gms):

EV 47.5xgf% (26th) -----> 50.2xgf% (13th)
EV 2.38xgf/60 (14th) ---> 2.25xgf/60 (16th)
EV 2.63xga/60 (28th) --> 2.23xga/60 (15th)
EV .913sv% (19th) -----> .919sv% (14th)

PP 7.21xgf/60 (8th) -----> 11.09xgf/60 (1st)
SH 7.67xga/60 (27th) --> 7.34xga/60 (16th)
SH .856sv% (21st) ------> .843sv% (23rd)

So we're playing nowhere near good enough, but still way better than babcock's leafs last year - particular defensively, where we're actually competent this year at both evens and on the PK, unlike the disaster defense we always saw under Babcock.

Offense is another issue - its obviously nowhere near good enough for our talent level yet at evens, though at least its working right on the PP.

When looking at the roster so far, the three biggest issues when it comes to xgf% so far this year are:

1. The top D pair, which has been awful in this department.
2. The Tavares line, which has been only average instead of awesome.
3. The 4th line, which has been a disaster even in tiny minutes.

I have to think these issues will clear themselves up naturally going forward - the talent on the top pair and 2nd line is too good for their current results, and we have enough good options to make a non-disastrous 4th line.
 
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Critical91 said:
That pairing is killing me.

Brodie seems real good on the PK so I am struggling as to why they spend almost every shift giving up grade A chances. Both can skate and pass and yet we can never break up a play and break the puck out.
Click to expand...

Rielly/Brodie with Matthews:
TOI: 62:10
xGF%: 52.16

Rielly/Brodie without Matthews:
TOI: 62:28
xGF%: 29.54

Matthews without Rielly/Brodie:
TOI: 43:58
xGF%: 46.40

I think I got a bold strategy for getting that pairing going and someone else too.
 
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Wouldn't like to see Willy and JT step up and drive some offense tonight... Haven't hit the scoresheet in a couple of games (though they've had some chances)

Nylander also needs to get some more pucks to the net. Only 13 shots through 8 games.
 
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Zybalto said:
Rielly/Brodie with Matthews:
TOI: 62:10
xGF%: 52.16

Rielly/Brodie without Matthews:
TOI: 62:28
xGF%: 29.54

Matthews without Rielly/Brodie:
TOI: 43:58
xGF%: 46.40

I think I got a bold strategy for getting that pairing going and someone else too.
Click to expand...

Ozone starts?
 
zeke said:
Ozone starts?
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Rielly/Brodie with Matthews:
OZ faceoffs%: 57.14
TOI: 62:10
xGF%: 52.16

Rielly/Brodie without Matthews:
OZ faceoffs%: 48.65
TOI: 62:28
xGF%: 29.54

Matthews without Rielly/Brodie:
OZ faceoffs%: 52.94
TOI: 43:58
xGF%: 46.40

May be making a slight difference but certainly not a driving factor. I don't think 8.5% less Ozone faceoffs can be contributing much to that insane drop off.
 
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@zeke
Do you see any differences from a technique standpoint on Freddy from his first 2 games? Every season, he goes into a 1-2 month tear where he looks like one of the better goalies in the league. Do you think this is that stretch now? I'm not confident it is because we have seen even in his awful stretches, he has 1-2 good games before going back to being bad.
 
Zybalto said:
Rielly/Brodie with Matthews:
TOI: 62:10
xGF%: 52.16

Rielly/Brodie without Matthews:
TOI: 62:28
xGF%: 29.54

Matthews without Rielly/Brodie:
TOI: 43:58
xGF%: 46.40

I think I got a bold strategy for getting that pairing going and someone else too.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure looking at WOWYs so early in the season is such a good idea.
 
Brobust said:
I'm not sure looking at WOWYs so early in the season is such a good idea.
Click to expand...

Right now, people will say this about every statistic: "bigger sample size needed!" but we're just having a discussion here, not writing a thesis. Of course professionals will have a different approach.
 
Brobust said:
I'm not sure looking at WOWYs so early in the season is such a good idea.
Click to expand...

Hey, I'm usually the first guy to say its really early in the season but the season is like 1/7 finished already right? Never a bad time to take a look.
 
Gonna be a late night. I gotta get up at 3 AM to go fishing so I might as well have a nap before game and stay up after. GLG
 
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X66 said:
Oilers fans read Joey Anderson coming out of the line-up as Andersen, lmao.

They were licking their chops for some Hutchinson action.
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Koskinen has played every game. Looking forward to a tired goalie
 
stickty111 said:
@zeke
Do you see any differences from a technique standpoint on Freddy from his first 2 games? Every season, he goes into a 1-2 month tear where he looks like one of the better goalies in the league. Do you think this is that stretch now? I'm not confident it is because we have seen even in his awful stretches, he has 1-2 good games before going back to being bad.
Click to expand...

Technique?

Hard to say.

He clearly just looks sharper in general. No more out of positioning, fumbling pucks, wild swims, etc. And with how quickly he turned the switch after that sens debacle I can't help but think its mostly just plain focus.
 
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TheDoldrums said:
Engvall being sat is shocking honestly. If the 4th line doesn't play well Keefe will deservedly get criticized.

I get its awkward sitting Barabanov after he came over from the KHL but points are too important, he hasn't shown anything. And they don't seem to mind sitting Lehtonen a lot.
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I doubt it. Why are 4 th lines the basis for criticism for you. I don’t get your thinking. All combinations have defended well in the bottom 6. That’ll be the day that I criticize Keefe for a fourth lines performance. It’s been a mix match from game one. Engvall has done nothing outstanding.
 
OVO16 said:
Wouldve kept Engvall and Lehtonen in. Especially Engvall. I thought he's looked great so far. Barabanov hasnt been visible at all
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It's a character issue. Engvall looks like a stone. A real hard nose and face. He ain't to be dirted with. No one can push engvall. He ain't taking no loss. He might have looked keefe the wrong way sometime, people and human beings tend to do that at times. Ain't even no thang sire.
 
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