Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[Stephen]

McMann would look good on that Minten-Knies line later in the season if we flip Jarnkrok.

Jarnkrok looks rejuvenated and peppy playing with Minten and Knies.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Jarnkrok looks rejuvenated and peppy playing with Minten and Knies.

It's been one game!

 

[Stephen]

It's been one game!

For sure, but I don't remember him buzzing last year like he did yesterday in Detroit...

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

For sure, but I don't remember him buzzing last year like he did yesterday in Detroit...

I mean he did score 20 goals last year while being 8th in ice time among forwards, so its not like he was a dud.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Bro first round talent slide to the 2nd round all the time lol, are you just being willfully ignorant?

No, that draft was wierd because no one saw them play. It was the covid draft. Stop being silly.

 

[al secord]

No, that draft was wierd because no one saw them play. It was the covid draft. Stop being silly.

You telling someone to stop being silly is like me telling someone to quit the liquor

 

[I am toxic]

So I thought this comment was really interesting.

Sheldon Keefe says Fraser Minten will get another opportunity in the Leafs preseason finale on Saturday. “The thing with Fraser — he really hasn’t taken a step back at any time. “

I've had a somewhat unique opportunity to observe some of this, over the past decade.

tldr up front: I think what Keefe said has great meaning, and is quite accurate - including the "big picture" sense

Here goes:

There was an awesome "spring" program (effectively year round hockey) here in Vancouver. Well, many awesome ones actually. This particular one was put on by a great guy out here in Vancouver, which allowed our kids to have an excellent environment to compete in at a young age.

It was an eclectic club, and would often invite other kids from Kodiaks, Bears, Vipers etc, to make up teams. The older ohfour and ohfive kids would be supplemented with a lot of ohsixes to field multiple teams, and they would often succeed against older teams because of those leaders – am thinking Fraser, Lukas, Connor (not Bedard, another Connor). We would often see Hiroki, and sometimes Macklin and Dryden would be invited out. All of these kids have either been drafted in the NHL, or will be next May. I could name another handful of kids from the program that have NCAA commitments. Great program, my kid benefitted in a unique way from it.

But hockey is a late development sport. Easy to dominate at age 10 if one has size and weight advantage, if one has been on skates year round since age 2. Except it wasn’t easy to dominate in this spring league, because lots of the kids were big, and all of them had been on skates since age 2. I can still remember AC’ing some U7’s at the NAHC and the HC was line matching and had them playing systems that he would adjust as soon as he identified the other team’s weaknesses. Fraser’s younger brother was on that team.

Anyway, at the time, Lukas and Connor (not Bedard, other Connor) were the game-breakers, and Lukas was a year younger. In intra squad games, the kids would be like “It’s not fair, they have Lukas” or “they have Connor”. Fraser was strong, but those two and Kai and Damon were a step above.

Anyway, Connor and Lukas were drafted into the WHL in the first round, while Fraser went in iirc the 4th round. But by the time they were playing together, Fraser was easily matching Connor’s production, and getting a bigger role. I wish the best for Connor, but I was not surprised when he got drafted in the 7th round, the year after Fraser went in the 2nd (Fraser being three months older, straddling the draft cutoff). Connor’s trajectory has been trending that way, still an amazing feat to be drafted at all, and I hope that somehow he makes it.

Add to that Fraser’s time in West Van centering Bedard - which I think forced him to elevate his game at a crucial time in his development - and he seems to be very well set up to succeed, barring injury.

Sadly, Junior is not really what he needs this year, while the NHL seems to be just too big of a jump. With AHL not an option, Euro leagues not really an option, it’s too bad he isn’t playing NCAA. Anyway, I hope it all works out for him.

eta: re Lukas, in his case obviously it was his dad that had the greatest impact on his development, not this particular program - although I believe that he, like all of them, benefited from a great competitive spring environment

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

McMann would look good on that Minten-Knies line later in the season if we flip Jarnkrok.

Or just keep Jarnkrok because that line appears to work

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Looks like Cowen and Minten were flipped to the Marlies heavy ice time for yesterday's practice.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Or just keep Jarnkrok because that line appears to work

He's literally been on "that line" for a sample size of one game. Relax. lol

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Looks like Cowen and Minten were flipped to the Marlies heavy ice time for yesterday's practice.

Probably the group playing tonight.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He's literally been on "that line" for a sample size of one game. Relax. lol

Yes and it worked

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Yes and it worked

And it worked with other guys on that line too.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

And it worked with other guys on that line too.

Maybe it would, but not Bobby Mcmann

 

[Stephen]

Of all the high IQ players the Leafs have tried to bring in over the years through trade, signing, draft, Minten jumps out as a guy who really has it. Just seems to track the 200 feet and is in position, makes the right reads, makes all your little area plays and has a scoring touch and a bit of physical nastiness too.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

So Dubas solicited opinions from the people he employs, considered options, then made a good pick. And thats a bad thing?

Exactly, why bother having a scouting staff?

 

[Roo]

I like what I’ve seen but I’d give him another year of junior to develop more of an offensive game.

 

[authentic]

Of all the high IQ players the Leafs have tried to bring in over the years through trade, signing, draft, Minten jumps out as a guy who really has it. Just seems to track the 200 feet and is in position, makes the right reads, makes all your little area plays and has a scoring touch and a bit of physical nastiness too.

I'm always surprised at how few of these guys exist when they're good enough to play in the NHL

 

[Phion Keneuf]

I don’t think it’s the end of the world if we give him 9 games. Let him get a taste of the show and go back hungrier than ever.

I don’t get this “let him play and he’ll never be more than a 3rd line center” crap. Let him get a taste and go back to junior and dominate. Take that next level offensive step that is needed to be an impact NHLer. If he fails to do so, that’s on him. He can still carve out a shutdown 3C role, but at least it’s on him. He’s played like a beauty and I think we’re all happy with what’s he’s brought. Let’s say he plateaus there, he’s still going to be a big part of this team. All the talent and drive is there, the next wave looks promising between Knies, Minten and Cowan, and to a lesser extent Robertson. The drive is there, it’s up to them to let everything else develop.

Only issue is the cap, which is sadly an issue. If we have to send him back, so be it. But I’m not sure what more is needed from a kid to let him at least earn a test run. You send him back, you make sure he knows it’s not due to his play. What he’s done this preseason has been exactly what I could’ve asked out of him. Came in and did his job. Lack of experience aside, he’s looked like a clear-cut NHLer to me.

 

[saltming]

Just over twenty minutes of ice time against NHL talent and held his own. His line mostly moved the puck up ice and I can't help but feel if Knies was on his line, he would have had a point last night.
Bottom line is has the tools and the toolbox. My only concern would be is he physically ready for 28 NHL games? If not now, next year for sure. He has the frame and the build already so just a matter of time.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Why does everybody assume if he gets the 9 games he's going back?

Him and Knies seem to be building tremendous chemistry, what if he gets the 9 games and puts up 5 or 6 points and starts proving to be a good secondary scorer?

The kid looks ready

 

[DarkKnight]

Keefe post game was interesting, said if it’s a pure hockey decision a “no brainer” that Mitten makes the team, then mentions it’s more complicated because of the cap, etc. It is really frustrating that the team concludes he’s the best option but have to turf him, to me, you find a way if you truly feel he has won a spot. I’ve liked Gregor, Lafferty, even Jarnkrok, but if we can fill a critical 3C need with this kid, give him a full season to prepare for the playoffs, I take my chances with complimentary pieces on waivers. Again if it’s a “no brainer” from a hockey perpective, it’s silly to pick the weaker option.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Keefe post game was interesting, said if it’s a pure hockey decision a “no brainer” that Mitten makes the team, then mentions it’s more complicated because of the cap, etc. It is really frustrating that the team concludes he’s the best option but have to turf him, to me, you find a way if you truly feel he has won a spot. I’ve liked Gregor, Lafferty, even Jarnkrok, but if we can fill a critical 3C need with this kid, give him a full season to prepare for the playoffs, I take my chances with complimentary pieces on waivers. Again if it’s a “no brainer” from a hockey perpective, it’s silly to pick the weaker option.

If that's how they feel they will find a way, they have to.

If he's good enough he's good enough

 

[Peasy]

If they truly believe he is the best option for 3C then they should try and find a way to get him in. And then just play it by ear with 5 game samples. If he really starts to struggle just send him down for the rest of the year. I wouldn't even worry about burning an elc year. In a way it could work out for us as if you burn an elc year sooner, hes up for re-signing sooner, and might not have established himself enough yet for a big contract. That extra delayed year could be the year he has a big year.

 

[Mess]

If they truly believe he is the best option for 3C then they should try and find a way to get him in. And then just play it by ear with 5 game samples. If he really starts to struggle just send him down for the rest of the year. I wouldn't even worry about burning an elc year. In a way it could work out for us as if you burn an elc year sooner, hes up for re-signing sooner, and might not have established himself enough yet for a big contract. That extra delayed year could be the year he has a big year.

In general a team gets their best bang for your Cap buck when players are on their 3 year max entry level contracts that are at there own Salary cap upper limit and less than $1 mil.

Leafs already burned a year of ELC on Knies last year.

Teams like to make hay when players are on ELCs and generally not pushing to get out of them. Then also consider it moves a player closer to free agency and also to arbitration qualifications the more years of service they register early on.

Bigger picture if the Leafs keep Minten and place a player like Lafferty on waivers and perhaps lose him and then Mitten gets sent back to junior shortly thereafter questionable asset management discussions become part of the equation, So if the Leafs keep Minten they better expect him to stay and make an impact beyond what keeping an Holmberg would instead.