Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[Knies iT]

There's legitimate offensive upside here, I don't like how people are classifying him as a Kampf/Gauthier.

WHL Players U17 season above .9 PPG (at least 20GP)

2020-21 - Connor Geekie, Matthew Ward & Frazer Minten.
2019-20 - Cole Sillinger & Dylan Guenther
2017-18 - Dylan Cozens & Kirby Dach (had a 0.89)
2014-15 - Nolan Patrick & Sam Steel (had a 0.89)
2013-14 - Mat Barzal

You don't luck into these types of numbers in the WHL at 16. Yes he had a down season offensively this year (still borderline 1st round numbers), but that can be more attributed to his linemates/playing time/PP time. Don't be surprised as the minutes increase and if he plays with better linemates (Stankoven?) that we see a 1.5 - 2PPG type of season. He needs to clean up the shot selection and become a bit more explosive but there's legitimate top-6 upside here. I had a similar grade to Owen Beck, two guys that are/were thought as low-upside offensively, but really they were blocked and took on defensive roles for great teams. Both are breaking out next year for my money.

The comparisons don't even make sense. Not even stylistically. It's basically just people listing random defensive C's. I've also seen Paul mentioned several times.

Schaefer is way more Paul esque. Minten is a technically sound player with better hands, skating and shooting ability than guys like Paul/Kampf/etc. have ever had at any stage in their development.

Backlund is the perfect comparison. Purely stylistically, there's some Horvat/B. Schenn/Kempe/etc. mixed in there. RHD gets talked about as one of the most scarce positional assets in the league but a close second is skilled two-way C's with functional physicality, even in a 2/3C role.

It will be fun to re-read this thread after Minten's D+1, Memorial Cup, and WJC (this yr or next). He's primed for a hype explosion a la Knies.

 

[Morgs]

The comparisons don't even make sense. Not even stylistically. It's basically just people listing random defensive C's. I've also seen Paul mentioned several times.

Schaefer is way more Paul esque. Minten is a technically sound player with better hands, skating and shooting ability than guys like Paul/Kampf/etc. have ever had at any stage in their development.

Backlund is the perfect comparison. Purely stylistically, there's some Horvat/B. Schenn/Kempe/etc. mixed in there. RHD gets talked about as one of the most scarce positional assets in the league but a close second is skilled two-way C's with functional physicality, even in a 2/3C role.

It will be fun to re-read this thread after Minten's D+1, Memorial Cup, and WJC (this yr or next). He's primed for a hype explosion a la Knies.

What's funny to me is that because he was on such a strong defensive team, and he wasn't on the ice for a lot of goals (nobody was with Garand in net) he got classified as a low-offense / all-defense player despite the borderline 1st round production. I'm straight up not even certain there's a plus defensive player in there like everyone in this thread/scouting community thinks there is. The pick reminds me so much of Knies in that there were a couple things that were telephoned on about in the scouting community (low-upside, bad skating, strong defense) that you really need to watch the guy play to understand what makes him who he is. Not to mention both came into their draft year with top-10 type production and didn't improve their production in their D0.

For me the stylistic comparable is Sam Bennett. Functional physicality, great shot he arguably uses too much, passing leaves some to be desired, skating is above average but nothing special. Bennett was also a much better prospect at this point and was derailed due to injury though.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

The comparisons don't even make sense. Not even stylistically. It's basically just people listing random defensive C's. I've also seen Paul mentioned several times.

Schaefer is way more Paul esque. Minten is a technically sound player with better hands, skating and shooting ability than guys like Paul/Kampf/etc. have ever had at any stage in their development.

I mentioned Kampf because someone argued that you have to spend $3M+ in UFA for a #3C; I never even made a stylistic comparison. But actual scouting profiles describe him as having Kampf-like upside anyway:

Minten has the potential to be a solid bottom-six center that also kills penalties. A player that probably will not eclipse 10 goals a season but will be out there late in games when defending a lead. There are still some areas he needs to improve, like his faceoff percentage, but once he does, he should have no problem finding an NHL job.

Meanwhile, are you seriously suggesting that Minten *now* has better hands/skating/shooting than Kampf *ever* had? Like, now? Or when would you say his development finished since Kampf is an undrafted late bloomer?

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Liking this guy more I look into him. Seems like type of player you need in bottom 6 to compliment the stars. I like smart guys who play hard.

 

[Apotheosis]

Would be nice if he worked with Barb and magically turned into an elite skater.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

In my opinion it's little bit confusing why Dubas decided to trade 25th overall pick.
Because Maple-leafs could've draft Brad Lambert with that pick ( he was available for Leafs and maybe he would've been BPA as well ).

Yes Lambert would've been risky pick because all that turbulence etc questions around him.
But sometimes GM needs to take risks and drafting TOP25-TOP30 range is like a playing poker ( sometimes you win sometimes you lose ).

Hopefully that trade doesn't bite Maple-Leafs and Dubas straight into the ass later
especially then if Lambert turns to steal for Jets with that 30th overall pick which Jets used to grab him.

 

[Maple Leaf]

he found knies so i will say nothing

 

[Leaf Fans]

In my opinion it's little bit confusing why Dubas decided to trade 25th overall pick.
Because Maple-leafs could've draft Brad Lambert with that pick ( he was available for Leafs and maybe he would've been BPA as well ).

Yes Lambert would've been risky pick because all that turbulence etc questions around him.
But sometimes GM needs to take risks and drafting TOP25-TOP30 range is like a playing poker ( sometimes you win sometimes you lose ).

Hopefully that trade doesn't bite Maple-Leafs and Dubas straight into the ass later
especially then if Lambert turns to steal for Jets with that 30th overall pick which Jets used to grab him.

Lambert is extremely talented, but the knock on him is his work ethic and give a crap meter. Things that can get better with maturity, but it is not as if the Blackhawks grabbed him with the pick. He might be a steal with the Jets, and good for them if he is!

 

[Stephen]

In my opinion it's little bit confusing why Dubas decided to trade 25th overall pick.
Because Maple-leafs could've draft Brad Lambert with that pick ( he was available for Leafs and maybe he would've been BPA as well ).

Yes Lambert would've been risky pick because all that turbulence etc questions around him.
But sometimes GM needs to take risks and drafting TOP25-TOP30 range is like a playing poker ( sometimes you win sometimes you lose ).

Hopefully that trade doesn't bite Maple-Leafs and Dubas straight into the ass later
especially then if Lambert turns to steal for Jets with that 30th overall pick which Jets used to grab him.

I would have concerns Brad Lambert turns into Josh Ho-Sang.

The guy I think we could have been more aggressive trading up for would be Yurov. That could have been a very big pick for us, but what's done is done.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

I would have concerns Brad Lambert turns into Josh Ho-Sang.

The guy I think we could have been more aggressive trading up for would be Yurov. That could have been a very big pick for us, but what's done is done.

Yeah that's true.
There absolutely was too much turbulence etc with Lambert
And then all that media pressure which can turn heavy in Toronto
especially then if player like Lambert won't play or develop so well.
Maybe trading 25th overall pick was right call but we'll know that later.
But hey Maple-Leafs still have Finnish players ( Hirvonen, Kokkonen, Niemela, Rindell ) even without Brad Lambert.

 

[ChicagoBullsFan]

Lambert is extremely talented, but the knock on him is his work ethic and give a crap meter. Things that can get better with maturity, but it is not as if the Blackhawks grabbed him with the pick. He might be a steal with the Jets, and good for them if he is!

True. Lets see what happens n the future.
And being honest perhaps Winnipeg is right place for Lambert.
As we know the media attention and pressure can turn heavy in Toronto if the things won't go as planned.
So maybe trading 25th overall pick was a right call this time.

 

[darrylsittler27]

Minten looks every part a 2nd rounder to me. A responsible 3rd line C.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

In my opinion it's little bit confusing why Dubas decided to trade 25th overall pick.
Because Maple-leafs could've draft Brad Lambert with that pick ( he was available for Leafs and maybe he would've been BPA as well ).

Yes Lambert would've been risky pick because all that turbulence etc questions around him.ig
But sometimes GM needs to take risks and drafting TOP25-TOP30 range is like a playing poker ( sometimes you win sometimes you lose ).

Hopefully that trade doesn't bite Maple-Leafs and Dubas straight into the ass later
especially then if Lambert turns to steal for Jets with that 30th overall pick which Jets used to grab him.

I think Dubas is going away from those all or nothing picks with high upside and low downside. Too many times we pick guys that have offense potential only to flop and be useless elsewhere. With Minten you can at least put him in the bottom 6 if he flops offensively...you can't really say that about the other smaller high upside guys we drafted previously. He is finding out the market inefficiency for smaller players is there for a reason. They either hit or its a wasted pick that cannot really help in the bottom 6 at least.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

I think Dubas is going away from those all or nothing picks with high upside and low downside. Too many times we pick guys that have offense potential only to flop and be useless elsewhere.

Which picks under Dubas are you referring to specifically?

 

[Fogelhund]

Would be nice if he worked with Barb and magically turned into an elite skater.

Barb is no longer with the Leafs.

 

[Anthrax442]

Would be nice if he worked with Barb and magically turned into an elite skater.

It's now Paul Matheson.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Which picks under Dubas are you referring to specifically?

Players like SDA....that is boom or bust with a smaller skilled guy.

 

[saltming]

Barb is no longer with the Leafs.

I believe she still consults with us and tb and the storm IIRC, but yes she no longer works for the Leafs.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

Players like SDA....that is boom or bust with a smaller skilled guy.

But you said this happens "too many times", so there must be many more.

Regardless, SDA is 21 and just put up 32 in 51 in his Rookie AHL season. I wouldn't write him off yet.

 

[Racer88]

I believe she still consults with us and tb and the storm IIRC, but yes she no longer works for the Leafs.

Maybe they replaced her because she couldn’t turn Tavares into a good skater. Lol

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

But you said this happens "too many times", so there must be many more.

Regardless, SDA is 21 and just put up 32 in 51 in his Rookie AHL season. I wouldn't write him off yet.

How many players that Dubas has drafted are currently helping the Leafs? Seriously...I am not talking about potential guys...but actual guys that are able to contribute to the team right now. He has been the GM for 4 draft years and besides Sandin there is nothing to boast about.

 

[Amadeus]

I've warmed up to this pick now.

 

[zeke]

How many players that Dubas has drafted are currently helping the Leafs? Seriously...I am not talking about potential guys...but actual guys that are able to contribute to the team right now. He has been the GM for 4 draft years and besides Sandin there is nothing to boast about.

Only 3 players drafted after Sandin have played more games than him, and all 3 play for bottom feeder teams. Sandin the 29th pick ranks 19th in games played ins his draft class.

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

I think his kid is going to be a great pick. We don't really have a solid all around two-way center in the system.

 

[FreeBird]

Maybe they replaced her because she couldn’t turn Tavares into a good skater. Lol

BARB is the LIGHTNING coach