Based on what? So many Dubas picks have not had particularly outstanding physical skills or tools. Mostly they're undersized players with good hockey sense/decision making as their best attribute, occasionally puckhandling, and only rarely outstanding size/strength/speed. I don't think he's done a bad job with late round picks since many of them are at least coming over and doing well enough in the AHL to at least get a cup of coffee in the NHL, but there are very few who I can say were really boom or bust projects. Who is a counterexample to that besides maybe Knies?
Robertson- NHL shot, puck skills
Miettinen - NHL shot
Abruzzese - playmaking
Amirov- elite skating, hard accurate wrister, excellent puck skills, playmaking
Hirvonen - not sure I would say has standout qualities but has a good all around skillset like a hornqvist
Lisowsky- heavy shooting goal scorer
Abramov - good all around skillset
Ovchinnikov - goal scoring
Voit - puck skills, shifty skater, playmaking
Sandin- playmaking, hard shot
Niemela - elite skating, playmaking, insanely accurate shot
Not every prospect is going to turn out but if you have a deep pool, which we do, these guys have some qualities that give them a higher chance of landing an NHL job.
Skating and IQ is basically a must to play in the NHL now as the game is so fast that you need both these qualities. Combine that with playmaking and goal scoring and I would say we are taking guys with higher upside.
Let's use the trade down where we got Niemela. That kid has so much skill and IQ while the Sens picked Kleven who doesn't really have any standout qualities other than he's 6'4 all day. He is likely just going to be a #6 D at best. That is the type of pick guys like Hunter and Burke were making and they never showed anything post draft. I would much rather we swing for the fences on kids with higher upside at the draft.
You can teach kids with skill to play two way checking games if their skill doesn't translate to success at the NHL.