Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[WTFMAN99]

Kind of like a pK specialist samuel pahlsson or frederick gauthier

Better wheels than Gauthier which will keep him in the league vs Gauthier having to scratch and claw to do it.

Gauthier was a gentle giant, Minten seems to have an edge.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

I wanted one of the several higher upside defensemen that went after him, not a guy who projects as a future Riley Nash/Manny Malhotra/anonymous 3/4C you can typically sign for peanuts in UFA.

Actually, for a good third line centre your probably looking at 3 million, fourth liner probably peanuts.

You need cheap entry level contracts on your team, to help with cap struggles. Nothing wrong with drafting a middle six centre.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

It's the below NHL average skating. It's all about the skating. We need people who can skate and you can tweak it a bit but that's it. He's slow and just more than likely will not cut it.

They say skating is the one hockey attribute a prospect can improve upon the most.

 

[Leaf Fans]

He just got invited to the WJC summer camp, so with a little hope and a lot of luck we can watch him in August.

 

[4thline]

I'm not letting myself get too optimistic, but taking this type of player this high just screams that someone's spideysenses were telling them that the two way game, IQ, and tenacity could boom into an O'Rielly/Bergeron/Cirelli type C that impacts the game above their skillset.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I'm not letting myself get too optimistic, but taking this type of player this high just screams that someone's spideysenses were telling them that the two way game, IQ, and tenacity could boom into an O'Rielly/Bergeron/Cirelli type C that impacts the game above their skillset.

Apparently he started the year on the 3rd line and then moved up as the year went on. I think he had limited PP time as well. Having 55 pts in 67 games is decent production if that's the case and could be a sign in a huge uptick in production with a big role next year with the older vets moving on.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Actually, for a good third line centre your probably looking at 3 million, fourth liner probably peanuts.

You need cheap entry level contracts on your team, to help with cap struggles. Nothing wrong with drafting a middle six centre.

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5M?

 

[kb]

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5M?

The fact he just turned 18, has size, and was invited to the WJC team should say that there is more there.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5M?

Some say his upside is third line centre, others say Second line. Either way you need prospects.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5

We don't know this yet. His reliable defensive game and physicality has him as a "Safe pick" to be an NHLer as a bottom 6er. Doesn't mean he doesn't have potential to be more. Like an O'rielly who was also a 2nd rounder and under a ppg in the O in his draft year. Or even a Bo Horvat.

Dubas' MO has always been to draft for upside. Can't see how this year would be different. They must see some untapped potential. Like I said in the post above, he had limited role taking on tough matchups and still put up good production and will look to have a bigger offensive role next year and possibly play for Team Canada.

He appears to have some decent tools. Decent skater, decent hands, praised for his IQ and has a hard wrist shot.

 

[ER89]

They say skating is the one hockey attribute a prospect can improve upon the most.

well someone tell johnny f***ing T that

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Dubas' MO has always been to draft for upside. Can't see how this year would be different.

Based on what? So many Dubas picks have not had particularly outstanding physical skills or tools. Mostly they're undersized players with good hockey sense/decision making as their best attribute, occasionally puckhandling, and only rarely outstanding size/strength/speed. I don't think he's done a bad job with late round picks since many of them are at least coming over and doing well enough in the AHL to at least get a cup of coffee in the NHL, but there are very few who I can say were really boom or bust projects. Who is a counterexample to that besides maybe Knies?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Based on what? So many Dubas picks have not had particularly outstanding physical skills or tools. Mostly they're undersized players with good hockey sense/decision making as their best attribute, occasionally puckhandling, and only rarely outstanding size/strength/speed. I don't think he's done a bad job with late round picks since many of them are at least coming over and doing well enough in the AHL to at least get a cup of coffee in the NHL, but there are very few who I can say were really boom or bust projects. Who is a counterexample to that besides maybe Knies?

Robertson- NHL shot, puck skills
Miettinen - NHL shot
Abruzzese - playmaking
Amirov- elite skating, hard accurate wrister, excellent puck skills, playmaking
Hirvonen - not sure I would say has standout qualities but has a good all around skillset like a hornqvist

Lisowsky- heavy shooting goal scorer
Abramov - good all around skillset
Ovchinnikov - goal scoring
Voit - puck skills, shifty skater, playmaking
Sandin- playmaking, hard shot
Niemela - elite skating, playmaking, insanely accurate shot

Not every prospect is going to turn out but if you have a deep pool, which we do, these guys have some qualities that give them a higher chance of landing an NHL job.

Skating and IQ is basically a must to play in the NHL now as the game is so fast that you need both these qualities. Combine that with playmaking and goal scoring and I would say we are taking guys with higher upside.

Let's use the trade down where we got Niemela. That kid has so much skill and IQ while the Sens picked Kleven who doesn't really have any standout qualities other than he's 6'4 all day. He is likely just going to be a #6 D at best. That is the type of pick guys like Hunter and Burke were making and they never showed anything post draft. I would much rather we swing for the fences on kids with higher upside at the draft.

You can teach kids with skill to play two way checking games if their skill doesn't translate to success at the NHL.

 

[Brew]

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5M?

So who were the better options?

 

[WTFMAN99]

So who were the better options?

Not saying better but Sykora, Warren & Sapovaliv were interesting names still on the board.

Scouting reports I’ve read haven’t been the best on Fraser but he’s pretty young, who knows how his growth goes the rest of the way?

 

[Brew]

Not saying better but Sykora, Warren & Sapovaliv were interesting names still on the board.

Scouting reports I’ve read haven’t been the best on Fraser but he’s pretty young, who knows how his growth goes the rest of the way?

This is my point. Nobody knows what they’re getting with these kids. When Hunter Shinkaruk was drafted, people thought he was a steal of the draft. How’d that turn out?

 

[Dion TheFluff]

He just got invited to the WJC summer camp, so with a little hope and a lot of luck we can watch him in August.

is it not the same teams returning in August?

 

[Leaf Fans]

is it not the same teams returning in August?

Yes, they are all eligible, but not all will be coming back. For Minten, it is December where he will compete for. We would need a lot of luck to see him in August.

 

[Macallan18]

I'm not letting myself get too optimistic, but taking this type of player this high just screams that someone's spideysenses were telling them that the two way game, IQ, and tenacity could boom into an O'Rielly/Bergeron/Cirelli type C that impacts the game above their skillset.

and he is so young! just turned 18, could easily add an inch or two in height, and will definitely end up well over 200 lbs.

 

[Macallan18]

There is something wrong with drafting a bottom six centre with your first pick when there are better options on the board.

What's his upsode, really? David Kampf? You know, the #3C making $1.5M?

Kampf? really? are you serious?
Ok, I'll say the upside is Bergeron. Drafted 45th overall. Almost identical size, assuming Minten can put on 10 lbs.
Reality is it will be somewhere in between.

 

[4thline]

Kampf? really? are you serious?
Ok, I'll say the upside is Bergeron. Drafted 45th overall. Almost identical size, assuming Minten can put on 10 lbs.
Reality is it will be somewhere in between.

Both. Projection is a Kampf, upside is a Bergeron/O'Rielly lite, but that upside is up a very very steep ladder with little room for error.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Lol what? His floor isn't David Kampf, it's complete bust. David Kampf is a fine return for a #38 pick. My argument is that teams like the Leafs should be taking more project with higher upside, especially since they've invested so much into player development. It seems weird to draft a bunch of high-floor, low-ceiling guys and just hope they'll work their way into game-breaking skills.

So who were the better options?

From what I read, Luneau, Warren, Del Bel Belluz, possibly Hughes.

Robertson- NHL shot, puck skills
Miettinen - NHL shot
Abruzzese - playmaking
Amirov- elite skating, hard accurate wrister, excellent puck skills, playmaking
Hirvonen - not sure I would say has standout qualities but has a good all around skillset like a hornqvist

Lisowsky- heavy shooting goal scorer
Abramov - good all around skillset
Ovchinnikov - goal scoring
Voit - puck skills, shifty skater, playmaking
Sandin- playmaking, hard shot
Niemela - elite skating, playmaking, insanely accurate shot

Not every prospect is going to turn out but if you have a deep pool, which we do, these guys have some qualities that give them a higher chance of landing an NHL job.

Skating and IQ is basically a must to play in the NHL now as the game is so fast that you need both these qualities. Combine that with playmaking and goal scoring and I would say we are taking guys with higher upside.

Let's use the trade down where we got Niemela. That kid has so much skill and IQ while the Sens picked Kleven who doesn't really have any standout qualities other than he's 6'4 all day. He is likely just going to be a #6 D at best. That is the type of pick guys like Hunter and Burke were making and they never showed anything post draft. I would much rather we swing for the fences on kids with higher upside at the draft.

You can teach kids with skill to play two way checking games if their skill doesn't translate to success at the NHL.

So basically nobody you listed has great skating/speed except for maybe Amirov? And at this point it's hard to justify taking him over Mercer or Schneider, health concerns aside.

And while these prospects still have time to pan out, other teams have drafted top 6 forwards/top 4 D with later picks in the same time frame. I don't know if Dubas has a single home run pick yet. And few of the players you listed have outstanding NHL level skills (maybe you meant they did as prospects). IMO Sandin's best attribute is puck handling ability, not passing or shooting. I don't think he'll turn out to be a PP1QB. Similarly Robertson's shot wasn't really accurate enough to beat NHL goalies clean when he got called up. Abruzzesse looked like a marginal talent in his NHL stint.

If guys like Minten turn into useful depth NHL players over 500+ games that's fine and better than expected return for 2nd and later round picks but you've gotta hope to win the jackpot and do better than just fine with at least one guy after four drafts.

 

[Morgs]

Both. Projection is a Kampf, upside is a Bergeron/O'Rielly lite, but that upside is up a very very steep ladder with little room for error.

There's legitimate offensive upside here, I don't like how people are classifying him as a Kampf/Gauthier.

WHL Players U17 season above .9 PPG (at least 20GP)

2020-21 - Connor Geekie, Matthew Ward & Frazer Minten.
2019-20 - Cole Sillinger & Dylan Guenther
2017-18 - Dylan Cozens & Kirby Dach (had a 0.89)
2014-15 - Nolan Patrick & Sam Steel (had a 0.89)
2013-14 - Mat Barzal

You don't luck into these types of numbers in the WHL at 16. Yes he had a down season offensively this year (still borderline 1st round numbers), but that can be more attributed to his linemates/playing time/PP time. Don't be surprised as the minutes increase and if he plays with better linemates (Stankoven?) that we see a 1.5 - 2PPG type of season. He needs to clean up the shot selection and become a bit more explosive but there's legitimate top-6 upside here. I had a similar grade to Owen Beck, two guys that are/were thought as low-upside offensively, but really they were blocked and took on defensive roles for great teams. Both are breaking out next year for my money.

 

[4thline]

There's legitimate offensive upside here, I don't like how people are classifying him as a Kampf/Gauthier.

WHL Players U17 season above .9 PPG (at least 20GP)

2020-21 - Connor Geekie, Matthew Ward & Frazer Minten.
2019-20 - Cole Sillinger & Dylan Guenther
2017-18 - Dylan Cozens & Kirby Dach (had a 0.89)
2014-15 - Nolan Patrick & Sam Steel (had a 0.89)
2013-14 - Mat Barzal

You don't luck into these types of numbers in the WHL at 16. Yes he had a down season offensively this year (still borderline 1st round numbers), but that can be more attributed to his linemates/playing time/PP time. Don't be surprised as the minutes increase and if he plays with better linemates (Stankoven?) that we see a 1.5 - 2PPG type of season. He needs to clean up the shot selection and become a bit more explosive but there's legitimate top-6 upside here. I had a similar grade to Owen Beck, two guys that are/were thought as low-upside offensively, but really they were blocked and took on defensive roles for great teams.

He definitely has upside, hence O'Rielly/Bergeron lite

 

[Morgs]

He definitely has upside, hence O'Rielly/Bergeron lite

Yeah I quoted you because of the Kampf comment but I kinda meant to quote the other guy.