Toronto Maple Leafs - 2022 Entry Draft - 2nd Rd Pick (38th OA) - Fraser Minten (C)

[zeke]

Who are our picks in this range from these scouts?

Sandin
Durzi
Robertson
Hirvonen
Niemela
Knies


Yeah I'm not worried.

 

[Stigma]

I actually like the pick and the player.

What I didn't want is another player who is going to find it impossible to crack our top 6 and eventually be moved because he's not suitable for a 3rd or 4th line role. We have too many of these awkward players who are offensive players but not good enough to play an offensive role on our team.

This kid can become one of those home grown 3rd liners who can play physical, have size and also contribute timely goals. He's very Nick Paul-ish to me.

This.

A lot of us have complained about not having suitable bottom 6 players. Why not draft a few? Especially if they're C's with upside. Solid 3rd liners -who are real 3rd liners and not just failed top 6-ers - cost money.

I don't mind this pick.

 

[ULF_55]

Skating:

As a 17 year old it is below NHL average.

So are we now saying skating coaches are irrelevant, and Barb Underhill was just a publicity stunt?

My take was the Underhill thing was partial publicity stunt and partial actual technical skill development.

Per NHL Draft Blackbook, courtesy of Maple Leaf Hotstove:
*The overall skating package is going to grade up higher for us now because it seems so obviously projectable. He actually has greater length to his stride than meets the eye; it’s just that the power isn’t fully fleshed out yet.

So, one of the things that seem to get attention is length of stride.
And considering his age (and I remember being his age - yes I do...) I know I was hardly a man at that time.

To dismiss his potential because at 17 his skating is below NHL average when other aspects are NHL level?
If everything was at NHL level he'd be knocking at the NHL door, and would he have been available then?


Listening to him say he expects another couple years in junior and then minor league development? Refreshing to hear someone who isn't delusional about how tough the NHL is going to be. This sounds like a young man who is going to put the work into his craft.

 

[The Podium]

I dont think this is the case. IIRC, Dubas did say that the guy they were targeting at 25 wasn’t available by the time they made the move.

At that point they probably were pretty certain they could move back and still get their next guy on their list. If Minten was #15 on their list, I am guessing #14 was picked just before the trade back.

Or they had a tier of guys at pick 25 they were hoping to get and it was cleared out before.

Ya that’s what I mean.

I bet Dubas had a target in mind, and when he was off the board he didn’t want to reach with Minten at 25 knowing he could get him if he traded back. Made the Mrazek deal still getting the next guy on his list.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Who are our picks in this range from these scouts?

Sandin
Durzi
Robertson
Hirvonen
Niemela
Knies


Yeah I'm not worried.

Well those picks were made under John Lilley. This was our first draft under Wes Clark. I trust the direction we've been heading with the draft since Hunter left though

 

[Zybalto]

How would you guys think he compares to Geekie?

Both are young(for the draft) two-way centers who played for good WHL teams, both are seen as having to become better skaters and their production seems closish too:

Regular season:
Geekie: 24 goals, 70 points in 63 games
Minton: 20 goals, 55 points in 67 games


Playoffs:
Geekie: 3 goals, 11 points in 16 games
Minton: 6 goals, 16 points in 17 games

(Minton fares much better for regular-season numbers when looking at /60 as someone pointed out earlier)

One goes 11th overall and one is considered a reach at 38 and I keep hearing about offensive worries about the latter.

The 6'4, 200 lbs. vs. 6'1, 185 lbs. really coming into play here?

Going to be interesting to follow these two going forward.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

The 6'4, 200 lbs. vs. 6'1, 185 lbs. really coming into play here?

I'd say no, especially when considering Minten plays much more physical than Geekie.

 

[Jacquestrapless]

Anybody know his average ice-time?

Edit: nevermind, just saw someone posted around 14min

 

[Morgs]

C- Fraser Minten - 18.2 - 6'1" - 185lbs - Kamloops Blazers

D0: 67GP, 20G, 0.82PPG, 11.38 Adj.NHLe (41st of 172)
D-1: 20GP, 20GP, 4G, 0.9PPG, 13.20 Adj.NHLe. (7th of 113)

The production in his D-1 wasn't crazy special, but it showed a player that had 1st round pedigree going into his draft year. Yes it was a SSS with the WHL playing only so many games, but the guy had a 0.9 PPG as a guy who played the entire season as a 16 year old.

WHL Players U17 season above .9 PPG (at least 20GP)

2020-21 - Connor Geekie, Matthew Ward & Frazer Minten.
2019-20 - Cole Sillinger & Dylan Guenther
2017-18 - Dylan Cozens & Kirby Dach (had a 0.89)
2014-15 - Nolan Patrick & Sam Steel (had a 0.89)
2013-14 - Mat Barzal

Besides Matthew Ward (who I really liked as well, but has size & skating issues) and Frazer Minten, every single one of those guys were a 1st round pick. 6 of them went in the top-15, Barzal should have. The difference with Minten is that his D0 numbers didn't explode like most of the guys above did. His production this season was sandwiched between Ivan Miroshnichenko (20th OA) and Nathan Gaucher (22nd OA). Please don't look at his raw numbers or raw NHLe and think to yourself "they swung on a no offense, no upside pick". They didn't.

Firstly the team he played on was the Logan Stankoven show- a guy I had ranked in the early teens last year and showed just how dominant he was as a player this year having 44 (!!) more points than second place on his team. Let's not kid ourselves, we just picked up the 2C on one of the best teams in the WHL. They didn't score the most (still scored a lot), but they gave up the second fewest goals. The production was split evenly between the rest of the team with 5 different guys having between 60 and 54 points. They played this team (besides Stankoven) very evenly, and IIRC he didn't play top-PP for much of the season. They had 6 NHL prospects, and 3 guys who got drafted this year.

Here's where Bader's Star%/NHL% had him:

This is a guy who has legit upside to put up production in the NHL, and an [extremely] strong chance of being a NHL player. 23rd in star% for the draft and T-12th in chance of playing 100GP based on his profile.

Now for Minten himself. Firstly I'm really not sure where why or where he's gotten a "safe" player type of vibe from. It's even more funny that I've seen him compared to the Goat like 50 times in this thread alone. The guy straight up loves to shoot the puck, and he's very good at doing it too (over 3 shots/game this season). The issue is that his shooting produced very little goals and it produced even less xG. What I saw in the games I watched and the tracking data was that he shot the puck from everywhere, and not enough from HD places. He's a slick passer, knows how to find the slot and because he shoots so much I saw him draw players to himself and pass to an open man. He's also decent in transition per the microstats. I saw a lot of "dump and chase" type of player, but he was in the 80th percentile for transition for all players in the CHL & USHL. His skating is good, he has a fantastic motor, the defense is reportedly fantastic (to go along with a 71st percentile in Mitch Brown's tracking) and as we saw with Knies, Leaf fans drool over the physicality that comes with a top-6 player skillset.

All in all he's not the player I had most hoped for in our spot, but I feel extremely similar to when we picked Knies, except I like Minten more that I did Knies. Two guys who's production didn't improve enough in their D0's to be 1st round picks (despite fantastic production in their D-1), loves to shoot the puck, and knows how to use their big body to their advantage. Similar to Owen Beck, I think he's going to take off this upcoming season when the player blocking them (Stankoven/Hardy) are no longer with their team. If he can come out this year and throw up a 1.5 - 2 PPG type of season we're going to be wondering how we got him in the 2nd round.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Anyone know where we can find the full post draft interview with Leafs director of amateur scouting Wes Clark?

 

[thinkblue]

Anyone know where we can find the full post draft interview with Leafs director of amateur scouting Wes Clark?

I was looking for it too. Leafs only posted the Dubas and Keefe pressers.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

If skating coaches were able to do wonders, Tavares would have addressed his skating deficiencies a decade ago. Technique is only a small factor, physiology and you're body's natural makeup are a much better sign as to how you will skate.

That being said, Minten does not need to be a burner if he's gonna slot in as a 3rd line C in the mold of Cirelli or Bonino.

 

[Mess]

How would you guys think he compares to Geekie?

Both are young(for the draft) two-way centers who played for good WHL teams, both are seen as having to become better skaters and their production seems closish too:

Regular season:
Geekie: 24 goals, 70 points in 63 games
Minton: 20 goals, 55 points in 67 games


Playoffs:
Geekie: 3 goals, 11 points in 16 games
Minton: 6 goals, 16 points in 17 games

(Minton fares much better for regular-season numbers when looking at /60 as someone pointed out earlier)

One goes 11th overall and one is considered a reach at 38 and I keep hearing about offensive worries about the latter.

The 6'4, 200 lbs. vs. 6'1, 185 lbs. really coming into play here?

Going to be interesting to follow these two going forward.

The Kamloops Blazers were a stacked WHL team built for a memorial Cup run.

Truth be told when watching the Blazers all eyes are on Logan Stankoven [ Drafted: NHL - DAL (2021) Round: 2 (#47) .. 59 games 45 goals 59 assists 104 points. (3rd in WHL scoring) ..

Just named 2022 CHL Player Of The Year – Logan Stankoven.

Minton has the advantage of playing on the same PP unit and team as the freshly crowned CHL player of the year.

 

[ToneDog]

The Kamloops Blazers were a stacked WHL team built for a memorial Cup run.

Truth be told when watching the Blazers all eyes are on Logan Stankoven [ Drafted: NHL - DAL (2021) Round: 2 (#47) .. 59 games 45 goals 59 assists 104 points. (3rd in WHL scoring) ..

Just named 2022 CHL Player Of The Year – Logan Stankoven.

Minton has the advantage of playing on the same PP unit and team as the freshly crowned CHL player of the year.

Don't we have one of those already ??

 

[francis246]

Who are our picks in this range from these scouts?

Sandin
Durzi
Robertson
Hirvonen
Niemela
Knies


Yeah I'm not worried.

3 of them have played NHL games and really only 2 have so far established themselves. I’ve never understood just listing every pick as if that proves anything.

Yes they are tracking well all of them but that doesn’t mean the organization isn’t going to f*** up or at least one or two out of the 6 don’t live up to their hype.

I’ve taken some time to research and inform myself on Minten, I still would have preferred Goyette, but I’m sure with development Minten has the potential to be a reliable player for us. It’s hard to tell exactly where he’d slot in. But I’m optimistic.

 

[keonsbitterness]

The Kamloops Blazers were a stacked WHL team built for a memorial Cup run.

Truth be told when watching the Blazers all eyes are on Logan Stankoven [ Drafted: NHL - DAL (2021) Round: 2 (#47) .. 59 games 45 goals 59 assists 104 points. (3rd in WHL scoring) ..

Just named 2022 CHL Player Of The Year – Logan Stankoven.

Minton has the advantage of playing on the same PP unit and team as the freshly crowned CHL player of the year.

Are you telling me a '21 1st round pick was a bigger marquee player than a '22 2nd/3rd round prospect?

 

[Mess]

Don't we have one of those already ??

We have an NHL similar scenario with Hart trophy winner Matthews that everybody is always focused on.

Frazer Minton in Kamloops was their 3rd line checking center which would be the equivalent of David Kampf on the Leafs.

Kampf is defensively sound and kills penalties and solid defensively much like Minton, but nobody watches particularly at the WHL level these players are often overshadowed by the flashy offensive stars on teams.

Scouts currently project Minton to be that bottom 6 solid 200 foot checking/shutdown centre in the future.

I'm hoping we might be drafting our version of TB Anthony Cirelli here who will never be confused with his teammates Kucherov or Point, but is also a much needed piece on a Cup winning team playing a different role in a teams success.

 

[Duffman955]

Who are our picks in this range from these scouts?

Sandin
Durzi
Robertson
Hirvonen
Niemela
Knies


Yeah I'm not worried.

Good point

 

[Zybalto]

The Kamloops Blazers were a stacked WHL team built for a memorial Cup run.

Truth be told when watching the Blazers all eyes are on Logan Stankoven [ Drafted: NHL - DAL (2021) Round: 2 (#47) .. 59 games 45 goals 59 assists 104 points. (3rd in WHL scoring) ..

Just named 2022 CHL Player Of The Year – Logan Stankoven.

Minton has the advantage of playing on the same PP unit and team as the freshly crowned CHL player of the year.

Minton's Blazer's:
Tied for 4th overall in the WHL
4th in goals scored.

Geekie's Ice:
1st overall in the WHL
Most goals scored in the dub.

They both were on very good teams with Geekie's being the best and highest-scoring in the league.

 

[Mess]

Minton's Blazer's:
Tied for 4th overall in the WHL
4th in goals scored.

Geekie's Ice:
1st overall in the WHL
Most goals scored in the dub.

They both were on very good teams with Geekie's being the best and highest-scoring in the league.

Another comparison between these 2 players..

The Arizona Coyotes traded picks No. 27, No. 34 and No. 45 in this year's draft with the SJ Sharks for the #11 overall and with the pick, the Coyotes took Conor Geekie.

The Toronto Maple Leafs traded their #25 overall pick along with Petr Mrazek to acquire Hawks 2nd rounder #38 overall and with the pick the Leafs drafted Frazer Minton.

Arizona could have drafted Minton 2 X and almost 3 with their own picks but used 1st and 2 X 2nds to move up to take Geekie.

So based on draft pick capital invested these 2 players are very different.

PS. SJ also passed on Minton and ironically the player they took with the #45 OA pick dman Mattias Hävelid (a much higher ranked prospect than Minton by scouting agencies), might have been whom the Leafs should have selected at #38. While I'm not personally thrilled with smaller DMan 5-10/175 this kid might have been BPA at Leafs selection nonetheless, so I'm going to be watching how that player comparison to Minton works out over time.

 

[I am toxic]

C- Fraser Minten - 18.2 - 6'1" - 185lbs - Kamloops Blazers

D0: 67GP, 20G, 0.82PPG, 11.38 Adj.NHLe (41st of 172)
D-1: 20GP, 20GP, 4G, 0.9PPG, 13.20 Adj.NHLe. (7th of 113)

The production in his D-1 wasn't crazy special, but it showed a player that had 1st round pedigree going into his draft year. Yes it was a SSS with the WHL playing only so many games, but the guy had a 0.9 PPG as a guy who played the entire season as a 16 year old.

WHL Players U17 season above .9 PPG (at least 20GP)

2020-21 - Connor Geekie, Matthew Ward & Frazer Minten.
2019-20 - Cole Sillinger & Dylan Guenther
2017-18 - Dylan Cozens & Kirby Dach (had a 0.89)
2014-15 - Nolan Patrick & Sam Steel (had a 0.89)
2013-14 - Mat Barzal

Besides Matthew Ward (who I really liked as well, but has size & skating issues) and Frazer Minten, every single one of those guys were a 1st round pick. 6 of them went in the top-15, Barzal should have. The difference with Minten is that his D0 numbers didn't explode like most of the guys above did. His production this season was sandwiched between Ivan Miroshnichenko (20th OA) and Nathan Gaucher (22nd OA). Please don't look at his raw numbers or raw NHLe and think to yourself "they swung on a no offense, no upside pick". They didn't.

Firstly the team he played on was the Logan Stankoven show- a guy I had ranked in the early teens last year and showed just how dominant he was as a player this year having 44 (!!) more points than second place on his team. Let's not kid ourselves, we just picked up the 2C on one of the best teams in the WHL. They didn't score the most (still scored a lot), but they gave up the second fewest goals. The production was split evenly between the rest of the team with 5 different guys having between 60 and 54 points. They played this team (besides Stankoven) very evenly, and IIRC he didn't play top-PP for much of the season. They had 6 NHL prospects, and 3 guys who got drafted this year.

Here's where Bader's Star%/NHL% had him:

View attachment 566629

This is a guy who has legit upside to put up production in the NHL, and an [extremely] strong chance of being a NHL player. 23rd in star% for the draft and T-12th in chance of playing 100GP based on his profile.

Now for Minten himself. Firstly I'm really not sure where why or where he's gotten a "safe" player type of vibe from. It's even more funny that I've seen him compared to the Goat like 50 times in this thread alone. The guy straight up loves to shoot the puck, and he's very good at doing it too (over 3 shots/game this season). The issue is that his shooting produced very little goals and it produced even less xG. What I saw in the games I watched and the tracking data was that he shot the puck from everywhere, and not enough from HD places. He's a slick passer, knows how to find the slot and because he shoots so much I saw him draw players to himself and pass to an open man. He's also decent in transition per the microstats. I saw a lot of "dump and chase" type of player, but he was in the 80th percentile for transition for all players in the CHL & USHL. His skating is good, he has a fantastic motor, the defense is reportedly fantastic (to go along with a 71st percentile in Mitch Brown's tracking) and as we saw with Knies, Leaf fans drool over the physicality that comes with a top-6 player skillset.

All in all he's not the player I had most hoped for in our spot, but I feel extremely similar to when we picked Knies, except I like Minten more that I did Knies. Two guys who's production didn't improve enough in their D0's to be 1st round picks (despite fantastic production in their D-1), loves to shoot the puck, and knows how to use their big body to their advantage. Similar to Owen Beck, I think he's going to take off this upcoming season when the player blocking them (Stankoven/Hardy) are no longer with their team. If he can come out this year and throw up a 1.5 - 2 PPG type of season we're going to be wondering how we got him in the 2nd round.

Great post.

The only thing I would point out is that I thought Logan will continue with the Kamloops Blazers for the upcoming season, such that Fraser will still be sharing the scoring with him, making it tougher to reach that 1.5-2 PPG that I believe Fraser would achieve if he was given the prime minutes (and playing alongside Connor).

I dunno, I haven't been following the Stars and what they might be thinking but it seems like a longshot Logan would be in the bigs this upcoming season?

 

[Morgs]

Great post.

The only thing I would point out is that I thought Logan will continue with the Kamloops Blazers for the upcoming season, such that Fraser will still be sharing the scoring with him, making it tougher to reach that 1.5-2 PPG that I believe Fraser would achieve if he was given the prime minutes (and playing alongside Connor).

I dunno, I haven't been following the Stars and what they might be thinking but it seems like a longshot Logan would be in the bigs this upcoming season?

I honestly have no idea. Hard to fathom him *needing* another WHL season after being as good as he's been, but I guess he's not old enough for the AHL so it's NHL or bust. Would be nice to see Minten playing with a talent level like that or seeing him improve the numbers just with an increase in playing time.

 

[I am toxic]

I honestly have no idea. Hard to fathom him *needing* another WHL season after being as good as he's been, but I guess he's not old enough for the AHL so it's NHL or bust. Would be nice to see Minten playing with a talent level like that or seeing him improve the numbers just with an increase in playing time.

Yeah, I think another season of Junior is a waste for Logan, but the NHL is probably too big a step.

Personally, for Logan I would do what Matthews did and go to Europe, preferably playing under someone like Crow who understands what needs to be coached for the NHL. He needs to be playing against men, not against some 16-18 yo's.

So I think Fraser's production will increase simply as he matures and gets more prime minutes with Pillar long gone and Topo aging out (yeah, I know they are wingers but thinking PP time), but it's hard to see him hitting something like 2PPG (despite my belief he has the ability to do so) if Logan is still there.

 

[Zybalto]

Another comparison between these 2 players..

The Arizona Coyotes traded picks No. 27, No. 34 and No. 45 in this year's draft with the SJ Sharks for the #11 overall and with the pick, the Coyotes took Conor Geekie.

The Toronto Maple Leafs traded their #25 overall pick along with Petr Mrazek to acquire Hawks 2nd rounder #38 overall and with the pick the Leafs drafted Frazer Minton.

Arizona could have drafted Minton 2 X and almost 3 with their own picks but used 1st and 2 X 2nds to move up to take Geekie.

So based on draft pick capital invested these 2 players are very different.

PS. SJ also passed on Minton and ironically the player they took with the #45 OA pick dman Mattias Hävelid (a much higher ranked prospect than Minton by scouting agencies), might have been whom the Leafs should have selected at #38. While I'm not personally thrilled with smaller DMan 5-10/175 this kid might have been BPA at Leafs selection nonetheless, so I'm going to be watching how that player comparison to Minton works out over time.

Yup, its gonna be a fun comp. to watch.

A few of more things to add:

Minten was the teams 2nd line C last year. (I saw you call him a 3rd line checking center earlier). The team certainly rode the top line in big minutes and with Stankoven out of the way, it's going to be interesting to see how Minten responds to having more prime minutes (but also the other teams top checkers)

Here are a couple of offensive numbers from one of the articles out there:

- He was 7th among WHL forwards in this year’s draft in total primary points, 7th in even strength primary points, and 5th in powerplay primary points. Considering he wasnt playing with Stankoven at even strength, that looks pretty good no? He was primarily the net-front/bumper presence on the PP.

- With his ice time, he had the third best primary points per 60 rate, and rates ahead of the likes of first rounders Conor Geekie and Reid Shaefer......and just behind a guy named Shane Wright.


Combine this with his defensive play physicality and compete level and then throw in the fact the Blazers coach says hes great in the room and a potential captain and theres a lot of upside to this kid.

Lets see if he can put it all together next year and have a Knies-like season.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Yup, its gonna be a fun comp. to watch.

A few of more things to add:

Minten was the teams 2nd line C last year. (I saw you call him a 3rd line checking center earlier). The team certainly rode the top line in big minutes and with Stankoven out of the way, it's going to be interesting to see how Minten responds to having more prime minutes (but also the other teams top checkers)

Here are a couple of offensive numbers from one of the articles out there:

- He was 7th among WHL forwards in this year’s draft in total primary points, 7th in even strength primary points, and 5th in powerplay primary points. Considering he wasnt playing with Stankoven at even strength, that looks pretty good no? He was primarily the net-front/bumper presence on the PP.

- With his ice time, he had the third best primary points per 60 rate, and rates ahead of the likes of first rounders Conor Geekie and Reid Shaefer......and just behind a guy named Shane Wright.


Combine this with his defensive play physicality and compete level and then throw in the fact the Blazers coach says hes great in the room and a potential captain and theres a lot of upside to this kid.

Lets see if he can put it all together next year and have a Knies-like season.

Statistically EP/60 is a critical stat because it eliminates variables such as special teams and total ice time.

I remember a couple of years ago watching Jordan Kyrou and thinking this guy has some terrific skills but then was underwhelmed by his low point production in his D0 season.

When I looked more closely at the data it turned out that he had virtually zero PP points indicating the his idiotic coach wasn't using him on the PP and he was getting third line minutes at ES. Of course that would explain his lower point production despite the obvious talent. His ES primary points/60 was first or second in the league.

Minten might be one of those guys who with more ice time and strength can explode offensively. In the highlights I'm really impressed by his NHL quality shooting ability.