Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Tak7]

I'm not going down the Marner path further. Agree to disagree

"No" is your answer, then. As expected.

Have a good day.

 

[Notsince67]

The Maple Leafs are taking an enormous risk with Matt Murray

The Maple Leafs trading for Matt Murray is a big move with potentially franchise-changing implications.

theathletic.com

Over the last three seasons only two regularly-used goalies (min. 60 games) – Joonas Korpisalo and Martin Jones – posted a lower save percentage than Murray at .899. Narrow things down to even strength and only Jones has performed worse.

Murray put together his last quality campaign during the 2018-19 season (.919 save percentage).

There was a strong two-and-a-half-week stretch last season when Murray spun together a .962 save percentage over six games from late January to mid-February. He also finished in the black in the goals saved above expected department, albeit while playing only 20 games.

The sample size is so small though as to mean almost nothing.

The other red flag: Injuries.

Murray missed the final 28 games of the regular season with a concussion. He’s struggled to stay on the ice consistently throughout his NHL career.

So what exactly might the Leafs be thinking?

Familiarity is clearly part of the equation.

Murray played his junior hockey for Leafs GM Kyle Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe with the Soo Greyhounds. More relevant is his connection to Jon Elkin, the Leafs’ head of goalie evaluation and development and Murray’s goalie coach from when he was a kid.

Almost a decade ago, Dubas hired Elkin in the Soo specifically because of his past connection with Murray.

It’s assuming a lot though that Elkin knowing Murray will be what turns around an NHL career that’s gone off the rails. It can’t hurt, but who knows how much it will actually help.

Dubas has shown a pattern of targeting players he knew in an earlier life. It’s often worked out quite well — Michael Bunting, Jake Muzzin, and well, Jack Campbell.

Murray is the biggest reach of the bunch – by far.

The Leafs may have looked at it like they had three real choices in the end:

1. Pay Darcy Kuemper roughly $6 million annually on a five or six-year deal

2. Pay Jack Campbell roughly $5 million annually on a four or five-year deal

3. Trade nothing for Matt Murray and pay him $4.68 million annually on what amounts to a two-year deal

They chose option C.

Choosing Murray over Campbell is a fascinating decision. Campbell is slightly older (30); has his own injury/performance question marks; lacks Murray’s postseason success (long ago as it was); and would have required a deal two or three years longer than what Murray has left.

He also performed at a higher level more recently, became hugely popular in Toronto, and will probably end up with a cap hit that’s not so dissimilar from Murray.

4. Start the year with Kallgren & Woll and keep your powder dry until the right situation comes. The team would stay competitive in the regular season.

 

[Gabriel426]

While frustrating that he didn't press harder, you lose a whole lot of "pay me to take the bad thing" leverage when everyone knows that you actually want the thing. Buffalo was a rebuilding team eating cap for a fee, we're a competitive team that wanted a goalie based on his history, taking advantage of the situation get him cheap.

Also, I take the details of trades that didn't actually happen with a huge grain of salt.

That’s why Dubas did bad on this trade. It seemed like all
his smokescreens got called for buffs.
1. He mentioned and hinted Petr might be the starting goalie and he is happy with that then trade him the next day.
2. Pretty much gave up on resigning Campbell
3. Mentioned he is happy with Woll and Kally as backups.

Not sure you watched the movie Draft Day. This felt like the kid GM in the movie (Dubas) who go fleeced by Costner and still thought he came away amazing without realizing Costner was actually in such a weak position that he could have asked for a lot more.

 

[hotpaws]

You guys are mad if you think our GM is gonna sign a risky contract beyond our Hart trophy player's contract expiry.

Mathews can’t sign a 50m per super max like they do in basketball so they’ll be more than enough money to pay him regardless of his demands since Muzzin expiring deal alone with cover any increase in his salary .

So your excuse to defend Dubie isn’t valid .

 

[All Mod Cons]

Aren't they kinda doing that? Spezz could have played another year, but he probably had a sit down with the Leafs management and they probably talked about his future, and now he is moving into a role where he can learn and develop his post career management type stuff.

So maybe a couple years from now he could actually be the GM.

I'm absolutely terrified that he's shadowing Kyle. Seems like an awful way to learn the job.

 

[Tak7]

4. Start the year with Kallgren & Woll and keep your powder dry until the right situation comes. The team would stay competitive in the regular season.

Not a realistic option at all - both far too unproven, and starting goalies just don't move in the regular season.

 

[stealth1]

What this trade tells me is that none of the goalies available in Free Agency wanted to play for the Leafs. When Gibson was not available this left Murray as the only option.

 

[hotpaws]

As of today who would trade

Murray + 3rd +3rd +7th for Husso
Murray + 2nd + 3rd + 7th for Vanecek
Murray + 3rd +3rd +3rd +5th +7th for Georgiev

Varlomnov for a 2nd or equivalent prospect.

 

[ACC1224]

I'm confused with what you are trying to say in all of this. Campbell wants a five year contract. I believe that you suggested that you would be comfortable in providing him with that five year contract, and then paying to trade him after two years, if needed. What does signing someone in two years have to do with this?

I'm ok with them moving on from Campbell, just curious what the thinking was behind bringing in Murray and letting Campbell walk.
Someone mentioned the timing matches up with Matthews and Marner extensions. I don't see why that's relevant as they will need to pay someone whether it's Campbell, Murray or door #3.
I never said I was comfortable with anything or even said I had a preference. I mentioned if Campbell didn't work out that he could be moved because as we've seen it's not that hard to move a goalie.

 

[The Masters]

Why not neither? Lol

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm actually surprised that the Leafs didn't try to leverage a third team to take the additional 25%.

They could have used their 2023 5th or something.

Not that the return would be better for Toronto but at least the cap implications would be digestible

 

[ACC1224]

Likely his play in the second half of the season + playoffs soured then on wanting to make a long term commitment and they weren't confident he'd out up those all-star numbers again. We'll have to wait and see if that skepticism was justified or not

Fair enough. Brutal trade regardless but hopefully the Goalie works out. We are due for a good break.

 

[4thline]

Varlomnov for a 2nd or equivalent prospect.

So none of the above?

That’s why Dubas did bad on this trade. It seemed like all
his smokescreens got called for buffs.
1. He mentioned and hinted Petr might be the starting goalie and he is happy with that then trade him the next day.
2. Pretty much gave up on resigning Campbell
3. Mentioned he is happy with Woll and Kally as backups.

Not sure you watched the movie Draft Day. This felt like the kid GM in the movie (Dubas) who go fleeced by Costner and still thought he came away amazing without realizing Costner was actually in such a weak position that he could have asked for a lot more.

Except none of that is really relevant, because its as simple as the only reason a team as good as the leafs would entertain acquiring Murray is that they actually want him.

 

[Razz]

Mathews can’t sign a 50m per super max like they do in basketball so they’ll be more than enough money to pay him regardless of his demands since Muzzin expiring deal alone with cover any increase in his salary .

So your excuse to defend Dubie isn’t valid .

I don't see how keeping the slate clean from any bad contracts in preparation for re-signing AM34 is invalid, but you do you.

 

[The Masters]

We can shyt on this deal all we want. Should have gotten more from Sens even if Murray works out because we are taking the risk on Murray and fixing him. That costs more than a 3rd.

But going to wait and see how free agency/trades shake up. Dubas gotta gain ground here

 

[rocketman588]

I'm absolutely terrified that he's shadowing Kyle. Seems like an awful way to learn the job.

He's gonna get a pretty shit job evaluation when dubas realizes all the dudes on spezzas OHL team have retired

 

[hotpaws]

So none of the above?

obviously since there were better options than you listed

It’s all fun and games in the summer but we’ll see how many people approving of this deal now are still happy in Dec

 

[notbias]

Florida is pretty boned but

Oilers 15 mil (10 after jack)
Avs 14 mill 3/4 FWs 1 D
Flames 6/8 at most after tkachuck and mangiapane if they resign. 4 FWs 2 D
Carolina 26 mill 4 FWs 2 D

The flames and Panthers are the only ones in close to a situation like us obviously the flames might be a complete Shitshow next year however

The Oilers have to fix their entire D and get depth as well as goaltending.

Avs need to find a 1G (never mind they are going with a goalie who just put up sub .900) and their depth is pretty bad right now. This is their last year without huge issues.

The flames got significantly worse.

Carolina has 20 million with 14 players signed, and a lot of holes right now and they have an often injured goalie as their #1 (sounds familiar)

You were asking who is in a similar situation having to sign players, I gave you a bunch of options.

After all those teams sign their players, the Avs are probably the only team better if we don't do anything in free agency.

 

[hamzarocks]

Bad take.

While it was nice to see Andersen healthy for the first time in a season in a half, injuries were the big concern and Andersen spent the end stretch and playoffs on the IR, and so his first year should obviously be considered a failure. The Canes didnt take the gamble on him (much like us and Murray) for him to be on the bench in crunch time.

If Andersen gets hurt again next year, the signing will be nothing short of a disaster for Carolina. Like us, they are trying to win now (and have been for even longer than us) and like us have been unable to find stable goaltending (lots of top teams with this issue).


Another thing...
Considering Andersen was injury prone and coming off 2 bad years (even getting badly outplayed as a backup by Hutchinson), you must have been really hard on the Canes for signing him at the time eh?

Just on your comment about the Canes trying to win longer then us,

Canes made the playoffs in 2019. They haven't been trying to win longer than us

They entered a rebuild in 2015 until 2018 similar to us, except we made the playoffs twice in that span.

They've had deeper runs and more siccsess from 2019 onwards (when we signed JT)

The thought they'd rebuilt from 2010 - 2014 but failed to make the playoffs like the Leafs from 2010 to 2014 as well.

 

[Gabriel426]

So none of the above?


Except none of that is really relevant, because its as simple as the only reason a team as good as the leafs would entertain acquiring Murray is that they actually want him.

Once again that’s Dubas’s problem. He let Dorian knows he wants Murray instead of Murray being one of his options.

We can shyt on this deal all we want. Should have gotten more from Sens even if Murray works out because we are taking the risk on Murray and fixing him. That costs more than a 3rd.

But going to wait and see how free agency/trades shake up. Dubas gotta gain ground here

Well, Dubas can’t do worse than this Murray deal, at least that’s what I am hoping.

 

[4thline]

obviously since there were better options than you listed

I must have missed Varly getting moved for a 2nd. Odd to see Lou hosed like that with much less proven goalies being traded for similar

 

[Fogelhund]

Why not neither? Lol

Someone has to play net. Would your rather have gambled on Georgiev? Kuemper is no better, and seeking far too much money. It's kind of one of those not many good choices, now what things. Perhaps being patient could have helped, or it could have been musical chairs, with no chairs left.

 

[Macallan18]

seems like a good dude in this interview

hope it works out

OMG, he looks like Marty Feldman!!!

 

[Macallan18]

I'm actually surprised that the Leafs didn't try to leverage a third team to take the additional 25%.

They could have used their 2023 5th or something.

Not that the return would be better for Toronto but at least the cap implications would be digestible

or even the 3rd that Ottawa is giving up.

 

[Notsince67]

Not a realistic option at all - both far too unproven, and starting goalies just don't move in the regular season.

There are backups who can be pried from teams that have an unfavorable 20-30 game start. 4.687MM in excess cap would accrue to 5.83mm after 20 Games
I will also be really ticked if Eric Comrie gets signed for cheap in free agency. Better option than Murray