Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[notbias]

Debatable and probably has been beaten to death. Our hopes now lie in Murray. Good kid, 2 times SC winner.

My fear is that if he plays poorly, he is going to hear it from the crowd. Expect the worst, hope for the best.

Not a fan of the trade, will continue to say that. Wanted more retention for this risk.

I am more concerned with his injury history than his play, I think the upside of this is higher than pretty much anything else available, the downside is just also the lowest. The short-term risk is also the highest but the long-term is also the lowest.

 

[Buds17]

I don’t like the move, obviously. But would people be happier and more confident in our situation if we did what Detroit or Colorado did and traded a third rounder for Husso or Georgiev?

You raise a good point. I think a Leaf Cup win would have to somewhat mirror that of Colorado's (the goalie not all that close to being the best player). That goal might be tougher to achieve in the East.

 

[ITM]

Murray is probably as good as Campbell, with a higher ceiling as well.

Question really just comes down to health for me. Plugging 4.8 on Murray if hes in and out of the lineup a bunch is tough, but hopefully the medical records gave them more comfort here.

I think the frustration stems from asset management against our needs and the apparent assets left on the table. It's frustrating moreover given recent examples like Yzerman and Husso and Sakic and Georgiev.

Certainly they don't have Murray's championship pedigree. Neither does Campbell, as you implied.

But for our needs, 3.5 against 4.8 matters. There's one player, or Sandin's delta, or the 1b backup that's likely more dependable than Murray.

I'm not a glass half/half metaphor type guy, but I err towards extracting the best out of something IF it's present.

Mrazek's health was a concern as soon as rumors began wafting about that he might become a Leaf.

Murray is all kinds of Mrazek deja vu. Acquired for less than offered to another rival. Acquired while cheaper options remained. May have been acquired at half of his retained salary post-buyout, thus leaving that much more money to invest where we absolutely need it.

Every GM makes moves that come with questions. But the sequence of Mrazek out Murray in, at Murray's cost speaks to - as many have I think rightly said - the appearance of a GM that is confused in the midst of free agency period in which we really need him to be of sound, sharp, sober thinking.

Don't think Dubas' intelligence is being questioned so much as his temperament.

 

[ToneDog]

You should be right in your analysis and I agree with it .. but Larry does not .. we are not gonna see da end of Shanny until 2024/25 when his contract runs out .. and Shanny like I thought is going down with ship (Dubie again like I thought) .. 3 more seasons of this nonsense .. although if Matty does go after 2 seasons then they likely clean house a little early

There is no way Dubas survives if our goaltending fails this year. No way. The fans will be so toxic, Larry will have no choice IMO.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Not happy with the trade, but we are also pretending like there are good options available.

Wanted 75% retention (could have lived with 50%), the return of picks I feel like is close to the package that was going to be sent to Buffalo, so no complaints there, I just wanted no picks and full retention + retention from another team paid for by Ottawa.

Pretending like there are good options out there that aren't risky is just not true, that's the only silver lining if there is one (and also that he is capable of playing lights out).

The problem is that we are in this spot in the first place, prime contention year and 0 goalies signed going into the upcoming season, even paying to get rid of the goalie we do have signed. I'm not pretending there are better options, there most certainly probably are from my perspective, clearly Dubas and co are higher on Murray than this board so accepted the risk

Backing yourself into a corner and then saying well I did the best I could with the circumstances is a bullshit argument if your the one that created those circumstances

 

[notbias]

I dunno - maybe it's a GM's job to have some foresight and not be put in desperation mode?

There are a handful of good goalies that are worth a long-term contract and none are available (I know everyone is available for the right price).

Markstrom was thought to be a top-tier free agent signing and was terrible when it mattered. Shesterkin and Vasi are pretty much the only two goalies who I think are consistently lights out.

 

[Tak7]

Understandably a lot of frustration at Dubas for this move. However, its worth noting that he's GMing for his life right now. He knows that the gig is up if he fails this season.

How many GMs in that situation hand out ridiculous money/term, with the "it's the next guy's problem" mentality, or mortgage the future for marginal moves in the present?

Dubas' hail Mary gamble, is one that doesn't absolutely skewer the Leafs over the next several years. It's still only a 2 year deal for a goalie that you paid nothing to obtain

 

[rocketman588]

I did the original comparison between Murray and Forsberg to demonstrate that Murray is very inconsistent. He can have runs of games where he plays very well then he will stink the joint out in a bunch of games. Combine that with his injury history and it's a big role of the dice for the Leafs.

No I understand why you did it for sure lol

Kb saying"now do Campbell" like he was going to have given up 4 goals 20 times this year was somewhat weird of a choice to make. Especially since obviously with less games it's easier to increase that % for Murray

 

[Fogelhund]

More than double the games played
meaningless

Meaningless, no, but certainly it should be assumed that people understand relatively low number of games aren’t the be all and end all. Despite this being a poor trade, Murray, when healthy might be an upgrade. Also note, Murray’s issues last year were post concussion symptoms. That can be seen as risky to some degree, but perhaps not as risky as a chronic groin issue (Mrazek).

With Murray having concussion issues, it does suggest a need for some players who are a deterrent to running him.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

And yet, again, some of us like myself never agreed that any of those were remotely likely. It was always going to be picks or maybe reduced acquisition cost of someone they were considering moving Brown.

And fwiw a 3rd in a deep draft like 2023 is arguably as valuable as a 2nd was in one that wasn’t like 2022

Still those type of assets were on top of 50%, we didn't even get either. Many were likely expecting too much but I think it can be said pretty easily that this was too little, by a lot. Where is the risk for Ottawa? The guy was owed 15 million dollars over the next 2 years....

 

[notbias]

The problem is that we are in this spot in the first place, prime contention year and 0 goalies signed going into the upcoming season, even paying to get rid of the goalie we do have signed. I'm not pretending there are better options, there most certainly probably are from my perspective, clearly Dubas and co are higher on Murray than this board so accepted the risk

Backing yourself into a corner and then saying well I did the best I could with the circumstances is a bullshit argument if your the one that created those circumstances

I am really not sure how to play the goalie situation and apparently a lot of GMs don't know either (Sakic just signed a terrible goalie as his #1), it seems like there are 2 consistently good goalies in the league, and neither team is giving them up.

 

[ToneDog]

Anton Forsberg's stats for the Senators over the same period:
33 games 2.70 GAA and a .920 save percentage.

Some wanted Forsberg at the TDL but Sens extended him. More proof that Sens were moving on from Murray. Dubas blew the negotiations but it is what it is. Until we see Murray in action this trade is going to sting.

 

[Fogelhund]

Which backup is playing those extra 17 games? Thats then big question i think, most people know Campbell was horrible for the 2nd half of the season

For sure the backup is important.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yup, as I said previously I really think Dubas was banking on Campbell as the #1 and is scrambling to patch holes at this point


The issue is Matt Murray has only played 14 games from January 1st to right now. When he did play he had some lights out games but also some real stinkers

IIRC he had exactly one stinker in his last start of the season which was so bad (8 goals against?) that is was enough to sink the overall numbers.

There is a reason JD Bunkis says Dubas gets "body bagged" in trades.

There's always a reason when people say things, that doesn't mean they're not spewing nonsense.

I don’t like the move, obviously. But would people be happier and more confident in our situation if we did what Detroit or Colorado did and traded a third rounder for Husso or Georgiev?

Good question. I'm comfortable saying the reactions to those moves would be about the same.

Gary lets face it. It's probably true. The team management has been junk and they can't even solidify the tender position. The cap is a mess and on top of it all, the money he will make going to US care of tax advantages alone will outweigh the pros of staying here. Why would you stick around in a mess like this? Why would any young American unless he is married or getting married to someone from Toronto?

Anyone can put together a pros and cons list. We are missing the biggest one, the Stamkos one, proven winning organization with top tier management and even then, Stamkos' wife was from TB and that played a big factor.

So you think it's "probably true", well OK then.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I am really not sure how to play the goalie situation, it seems like there are 2 consistently good goalies in the league, and neither team is giving them up.

Very true. For me, i prefer getting a bona-fide starter rather than tandems. Never see tandems win the cup really. If your going to go starter make sure they have the physical capacity to handle that many games. I have concerns that Murray (or Campbell) can do that

 

[ToneDog]

1967 Bower/Sawchuk
2022 Murray/Kalgren

Raise your hand if you thought Murray would be the next Leaf goalie to hoist the SC ?? Sigh.

Edit: God I hope this post does not age well. LOL

 

[Gary Nylund]

For sure the backup is important.

Agreed. Here's hoping that spot is filled tomorrow.

 

[notbias]

1967 Bower/Sawchuk
2022 Murray/Kalgren

Raise your hand if you thought Murray would be the next Leaf goalie to hoist the SC ?? Sigh.

if there were 6 teams in the NHL we could have a Vasi/Helle combo...

I have more faith in Murray than a lot of goalies on the market, just his health is concerning.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Understandably a lot of frustration at Dubas for this move. However, its worth noting that he's GMing for his life right now. He knows that the gig is up if he fails this season.

How many GMs in that situation hand out ridiculous money/term, with the "it's the next guy's problem" mentality, or mortgage the future for marginal moves in the present?

Dubas' hail Mary gamble, is one that doesn't absolutely skewer the Leafs over the next several years. It's still only a 2 year deal for a goalie that you paid nothing to obtain

No the other deals he made skewered the Leafs. Most notably JT and MM

 

[JT AM da real deal]

There is no way Dubas survives if our goaltending fails this year. No way. The fans will be so toxic, Larry will have no choice IMO.

Why? We had 4 failures with Freddy and then 2 more with Soup .. 6 tending failures in 6 years .. you think 1 more tending failure this year changes anything? da sponsors don't care .. da season ticket base does not care .. da owner does not care .. all da people that matter are ok with things continuing on

 

[deprw]

I would have hoped for more retention as well. That said, I like the trades Dubas has made for the most part so it seems reasonable to assume that this was the best he could do. Hard to say for sure without being a fly on the wall during negotiations but I'm OK giving him the benefit of doubt on this one.

Like you said, cheer for the Leafs forever and hope for the best. At least there's massive potential upside here so there is definitely something to hope for.

Well it's a long shot, but Murray has some of that star goalie potential, that isn't there with Campbell, Mrazek and Kuemper. It is also gamble with Talbot and MAF, but I think their floor is higher and with Murrays history you'd hope to pay him less than Wild is paying for neither.

In the end we had to pick our poison, because I think only "sure" option would have been Hellebyuck and he isn't moving this off season. At least I don't think so, if Jets dismantle their team I think they'll do it next year and gain some momentum for trading Hellebyuck to drive the price up. This is too late for that, because most of the teams have their starter and market isn't good for selling a goalie.

Last year we were in this same situation and if we look how those signings went. Mrazek was bad, but so was Ullmark, Nedeljkovic and Grubauer. You could also say that Andersen wasn't that great, though his regular season was great, but it doesn't matter if you can't play in the playoffs. In that sense you could assume that some teams will be disappointed with their signings. Husso, Kuemper and Campbell are all risks. Georgiev is a gamble, so are Francouz, Samsonov, Comrie and Vanecek as starter.

I just have to root for Murray. He wasn't the worst option and his contract is manageable, but we are contender and Dubas will be judged for the outcome. We'll see. Risky like any other option out there.

It will be interesting to see Murrays partner.

 

[JKG33]

Understandably a lot of frustration at Dubas for this move. However, its worth noting that he's GMing for his life right now. He knows that the gig is up if he fails this season.

How many GMs in that situation hand out ridiculous money/term, with the "it's the next guy's problem" mentality, or mortgage the future for marginal moves in the present?

Dubas' hail Mary gamble, is one that doesn't absolutely skewer the Leafs over the next several years. It's still only a 2 year deal for a goalie that you paid nothing to obtain

Does he really think his job is on the line though? Dubas strikes me as the type of arrogant fool who thinks his shit doesn't stink and thinks he's on a lifetime deal.

Nobody GMing for their life as you put it gambles $5m in cap space on Matt Murray.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Does he really think his job is on the line though? Dubas strikes me as the type of arrogant fool who thinks his shit doesn't stink and thinks he's on a lifetime deal.

Nobody GMing for their life as you put it gambles $5m in cap space on Matt Murray.

Yeah there's an arrogance there for sure. And it's always been about him. "I will stake my career" isn't what you want to hear from a GM.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Understandably a lot of frustration at Dubas for this move. However, its worth noting that he's GMing for his life right now. He knows that the gig is up if he fails this season.

How many GMs in that situation hand out ridiculous money/term, with the "it's the next guy's problem" mentality, or mortgage the future for marginal moves in the present?

Dubas' hail Mary gamble, is one that doesn't absolutely skewer the Leafs over the next several years. It's still only a 2 year deal for a goalie that you paid nothing to obtain

Answer: none.

I can't recall too many GMs that handed out massive contracts that constitute 50% of the teams' salaries in the early stages of a re-build. Dubas can't spend wildly in desperation because he has no cap space.

I think maybe Chicago is a close comparison, but they had won cups. 3 of them.

I'm sorry, but I cannot put Dubas in the "wow what wise spender he is" category. He has handcuffed himself from the start. He lost this trade with Dorion because of the cap situation.

 

[notbias]

Does he really think his job is on the line though? Dubas strikes me as the type of arrogant fool who thinks his shit doesn't stink and thinks he's on a lifetime deal.

Nobody GMing for their life as you put it gambles $5m in cap space on Matt Murray.

maybe he just puts the team ahead of himself or is confident they will do well this year so no need to sign a terrible contract like Campbell at 5x5?