Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Gary Nylund]

That's another risk with Husso, he just lost his starting job.

No clue which is best, but every goalie available has some risk attached to them.

Indeed! I wish we had Vasi as our goalie as he's about as risk free as they come but beyond him ... there's a reason people say goalies are voodoo.

 

[ITM]

Gambling on a much better goalie with a winning track record. But your point still stands.

Cheers.

I think the finer point is that it appears that contenders make smaller, bird-in-hand type moves that are dependable acquisitions. Noted Lehkonen during the playoffs as one piece. Paul was a reach and kudos to Tampa for seeing his potential.

Campbell - sour grapes and all - wasn't THE problem or even the second biggest problem. Our problem is reliance on four forwards who aren't (can't?) scoring at critical junctures. Is it reasonable to say, perhaps our depth is one reason in which teams are able to focus on those four and nullify their impact?And obviously, depth expands options. And when our options to score expand, the other team's ability to cover every option begins to thin.

We're closer to Colorado's model than we are Tampa's. Depth should be our focus...Moreover because that's our only option to compete.

 

[Sypher04]

Even if you think Matthews doesn't f*** off outta here the first chance he gets, the window gets slammed shut when he's being paid $16m or whatever it'll take to keep him

You’re making ridiculous and unfounded assumptions.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I don't understand these hindsight posts.

Dubas came in pre-pandemic expecting that $90m team cap space Bob MacKenzie was going on about.

The guy doesn't have a crystal ball.

I'm also not sure why I'm defending the guy. I guess maybe I liked the idea of giving a younger guy a shot vs watching the same regurgitated execs over and over?

But I'm at the point I'll just sit back and watch, because throwing out opinions as fans on a forum has zero effect on what we see next, we are not involved and they don't care what we think.

We gave a younger guy a shot. It's not worked. Can we give a different younger guy a shot? Or do we just have to stick with Kyle?

I'd much, much, much prefer Spezza to be the GM. He's a bit older admittedly, but donwe count him as old?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I dunno Gary maybe a GM who realizes his plan isn't working and is able/willing to adapt. Rather than sticking with his plan no matter what.

What a strange thing to say.

 

[Mess]

The Ottawa Senators are a rebuilding team below the Leafs in the standings. But for how long?

They acquired 29 year old Anton Forsberg on waivers for free last year. He played in 46 games recorded a 22-17- 4 record with a .917 SV% and 2.82 GAA and he carries a $2.75 mil cap hit.

Matt Murray is 28 years old and due to injuries only dressed for 20 games recording a 5-12-2 recorded with a .906 sv% and 3.05 GAA.

If you include Murray's last 2 seasons in Ottawa 2020-21 .. 27 games 10-13-1 record & 2021-22 .. 20 games 5-12-2 = 15 wins 27 losses 3 OTL in 47 games with a combined .899 sv% & 3.34 GAA.

Forsberg was #18 in saves above expected at 8.5 last year and Murray was #28th with 3.2 .

Since Forsberg is their starter did Sens just trade our Leafs their backup goalie (while eating $1.5 mil salary) and handing over a $4.68 cap hit as they hope to close the gap in the standings between the 2 rival Ontario based teams. Murray's numbers don't even match Forsberg and that doesn't even include the injury risk factor only the pure stats in comparison, and Sens are getting that result for approx 1/2 the salary cap to boot.

While Leafs are dumping their 1st round pick to create +$3.8 mil cap space to afford Matt Murray, the Sens are dealing their 1st for a 23 year old 42 goal scorer in Alex DeBrincat and using most of that recaptured cap space to cover his 6.4 mil.

This looks like 2 teams heading in opposite directions to me, or am I missing something and Leafs are going All-in believing they're getting the Stanley Cup winning Pens team lead by Crosby/Malkin goalie from 2016 & 2017 here?

 

[ITM]

Mrazek has chronic groin issues. That’s never going to get better, and will be a risk every time he stretches to make a save.

Murray has a history of concussion issues. Sure, that’s bad, but as long as he doesn’t get run, it’s not a risk of a re-occurring injury, by moving the wrong way.

Campbell’s biggest risk is his mental health. He’s shown a history of not being in the right place mentally, to excel as an athlete. Campbell wanted five years, which is far too much term to gamble on, given the history.

So the choices, within these three, was to gamble on a wonky groin, someone with concussion history, or someone struggling with mental health wanting a five year term.

To me, assuming all else is equal, the two year term is the lower risk, and I’d choose concussion risk, over chronic groin risk. The groin will fail, that is guaranteed. The concussion risk, depends on getting hit, so less absolute.

But if someone hits him, they better pay. Douglas?

Also, not defending the trade, it should have been far better.

Absolutely. Been repeating Douglas' name at every opportunity. High hopes he brings some real menace to the club.

 

[Fogelhund]

People won't like having an enforcing/punishing d-men but we probably should get one

Murray could give us good numbers but he's still a very skinny goalie. He's been great despite thst at times but he's also been injured a lot.

We need either our players to protect the net and not allow for players to try and bull dooze their way to the net, or get some guys who have strong board play, front of the net play and are able to beat and one who trys ti take out Murray back and Blue

Simmonds could be replaced for a more physical player

Holl Likewise

Holl was our team D leader in hits last year. (Ouch!) lol. I’m not saying he’s physical, just ummm. We didn’t have enough physicality.

I do think we need more physicality on the back end.

 

[Tak7]

Answer: none.

I can't recall too many GMs that handed out massive contracts that constitute 50% of the teams' salaries in the early stages of a re-build. Dubas can't spend wildly in desperation because he has no cap space.

I think maybe Chicago is a close comparison, but they had won cups. 3 of them.

I'm sorry, but I cannot put Dubas in the "wow what wise spender he is" category. He has handcuffed himself from the start. He lost this trade with Dorion because of the cap situation.

Such nonsense - he still has ~$6m in cap space, and could easily create more by moving Kerfoot/Holl/Muzzin, all guys that would gather interest.

He could also have paid more for Jack.

Don't put Dubas in the wise spender category if you don't want, but please use a little common sense. The Oilers went huge on term in some of their deals knowing the pressure that's on them, and probably do the same tomorrow

 

[ShaneFalco]

So the excuses are now
- there were few options
- goalies are voodoo
- we had terrible goaltending last year
- it's only 2 years
- he had better stats in 1/2 the games compared to Soup
- someone will overpay for Soup, Dubas didn't

 

[JKG33]

You’re making ridiculous and unfounded assumptions.

Whats unfounded? He milked Dubas for all he could get last negotiation, and he'll have more leverage next time around. The guy ain't taking a discount that much is clear. He loves the California/Vegas lifestyle, theres zero doubt in my mind he signs in a huge US market

 

[Menzinger]

That says to me that he has confidence in his decisions and at the same time, he is fully prepared to take the responsibility and pay the price if they don't work out. That's exactly what I want to hear from a GM.

What is it that you would like to hear form a GM? Something like "maybe it'll work out and maybe it won't, we'll see"?


More people should be giving Dubas credit for this IMO. I must have read 100 times early this year that Dubas would be allin at the last TDL and happily trade away a boatload of futures in a desperate attempt to win a round and save his job and guess what, we were one of the only contenders that didn't trade a 1st round pick at the TDL. Say what you want about the guy but it's 100% clear that he is putting the team first and I do appreciate that kind of integrity.


Campbell for 5 years vs Murray for 2 years is the problem and in that sense, the risk attached to Campbell would be much bigger. If we could have signed Jack at 5x2, I'm almost certain that we would have done it.

You definitely raise an interesting point. There was nothing stopping the front office from offloading prime assets to fix the goaltending - ie Knies, Sandin. Some may have in fact expected them to do so given how disgruntled part of the media/fanbase has been.

So while I'm critical of the particulars of this trade given the less than desirable amount of retention + less of a sweetener than expected, it's not exactly a move of desperation as some are framing it here.

 

[colchar]

Say you can’t comprehend stats, without saying it.

Oh I understand them, I just prefer to deal in reality rather than models and guesses.

 

[JKG33]

So the excuses are now
- there were few options
- goalies are voodoo
- we had terrible goaltending last year
- it's only 2 years
- he had better stats in 1/2 the games compared to Soup
- someone will overpay for Soup, Dubas didn't

Its hilarious. The best one is those defending this move saying Campbell gets overpaid. I wouldn't spend $5m on either goalie, but gun to my head I'd take Campbell for 5 years over Murray for 2.

Murray provides $1m goaltending at a $5m price.

 

[bbgobie]

Wouldn the bonus have been pain on July 01?

I believe this season they would be paid tomorrow.

From the 2021-22 Transition rules
"Any contract “extensions” entered into following the execution of these 2021-22 Transition Rules that begin with the 2022-23 season and provide for Signing Bonus attributable to the 2022- 23 season, may not provide for Signing Bonus payments in advance of July 13, 2022. "

 

[hamzarocks]

Holl was our team D leader in hits last year. (Ouch!) lol. I’m not saying he’s physical, just ummm. We didn’t have enough physicality.

I do think we need more physicality on the back end.

Any options in mind/available via UFA?

Manson used to be physical I think but now he's older and has a cup. The older you get its often you become more complacent after success so don't know if he'd be willing to provide that physicality and play the role we'd need. He's also probably wanting a decent penny on his deal

@Knies iT proposed a Hague for Sandin deal which I think would be a good one for us. We don't need Sandin's style of game really. Niemela can provide something similar in 2 years at RHD.

Hague has size, a great shot and can play up and down the lineup.

Rielly, Hague, Muzzin at LHD gives us 2 physical LHDs

Brodie, Lilijgren, Giordano

Not the most physical crop but we know Giordano has been willing to engage and throw hits in the past.

I do think we could use a physical 7D like Schenn if he's a UFA to give Gio games off as he's 38 or so and shouldn't be used in every reg season game

 

[All Mod Cons]

I'm genuinely shocked at the amount of fans that have been able to rationalize and see the logic in Kyle's previous moves. There's definitely some, and they are a vocal crowd, but there are way more than I thought that blindly trusted everything he has done to date.

 

[RoadWarrior]

That says to me that he has confidence in his decisions and at the same time, he is fully prepared to take the responsibility and pay the price if they don't work out. That's exactly what I want to hear from a GM.

What is it that you would like to hear form a GM? Something like "maybe it'll work out and maybe it won't, we'll see"?


More people should be giving Dubas credit for this IMO. I must have read 100 times early this year that Dubas would be allin at the last TDL and happily trade away a boatload of futures in a desperate attempt to win a round and save his job and guess what, we were one of the only contenders that didn't trade a 1st round pick at the TDL. Say what you want about the guy but it's 100% clear that he is putting the team first and I do appreciate that kind of integrity.


Campbell for 5 years vs Murray for 2 years is the problem and in that sense, the risk attached to Campbell would be much bigger. If we could have signed Jack at 5x2, I'm almost certain that we would have done it.

I think that was the problem for the leafs. It was term vs. AAV. I think they easily match the AAV from Edmonton. However they don't want to sign anyone beyond the end of Matthews contract. If he doesn't return it's an instant rebuild.

That being said they could always buy out the last couple years of Campbell's contract.

I think that behind closed doors Campbell was getting blame from management for the first round losses when in fact it had much more to do with coaching and management than with Campbell.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Any options in mind/available via UFA?

Manson used to be physical I think but now he's older and has a cup. The older you get its often you become more complacent after success so don't know if he'd be willing to provide that physicality and play the role we'd need. He's also probably wanting a decent penny on his deal

@Knies iT proposed a Hague for Sandin deal which I think would be a good one for us. We don't need Sandin's style of game really. Niemela can provide something similar in 2 years at RHD.

Hague has size, a great shot and can play up and down the lineup.

Rielly, Hague, Muzzin at LHD gives us 2 physical LHDs

Brodie, Lilijgren, Giordano

Not the most physical crop but we know Giordano has been willing to engage and throw hits in the past.

I do think we could use a physical 7Dile Schenn if he's a UFA to give Gio games off as he's 38 or so and shouldn't be used in every reg season game

If leafs bring in a physical defender he has to be able to skate as well. The defense is slow enough as it is especially with how aggressive defenders pinch in Keefe's system

 

[Menzinger]

The Ottawa Senators are a rebuilding team below the Leafs in the standings. But for how long?

They acquired 29 year old Anton Forsberg on waivers for free last year. He played in 46 games recorded a 22-17- 4 record with a .917 SV% and 2.82 GAA and he carries a $2.75 mil cap hit.

Matt Murray is 28 years old and due to injuries only dressed for 20 games recording a 5-12-2 recorded with a .906 sv% and 3.05 GAA.

If you include Murray's last 2 seasons in Ottawa 2020-21 .. 27 games 10-13-1 record & 2021-22 .. 20 games 5-12-2 = 15 wins 27 losses 3 OTL in 47 games with a combined .899 sv% & 3.34 GAA.

Forsberg was #18 in saves above expected at 8.5 last year and Murray was #28th with 3.2 .

Since Forsberg is their starter did Sens just trade our Leafs their backup goalie (while eating $1.5 mil salary) and handing over a $4.68 cap hit as they hope to close the gap in the standings between the 2 rival Ontario based teams. Murray's numbers don't even match Forsberg and that doesn't even include the injury risk factor only the pure stats in comparison, and Sens are getting that result for approx 1/2 the salary cap to boot.

While Leafs are dumping their 1st round pick to create +$3.8 mil cap space to afford Matt Murray, the Sens are dealing their 1st for a 23 year old 42 goal scorer in Alex DeBrincat and using most of that recaptured cap space to cover his 6.4 mil.

This looks like 2 teams heading in opposite directions to me, or am I missing something and Leafs are going All-in believing they're getting the Stanley Cup winning Pens team lead by Crosby/Malkin goalie from 2016 & 2017 here?

Worth noting the eldest goalie here - Forsberg - has just 102 NHL career games played. Will he replicate his career best level of play as he did last season? Or will he regress significantly? I wouldn't feel comfortable better on either option with certainty

 

[Trapper]

Debatable and probably has been beaten to death. Our hopes now lie in Murray. Good kid, 2 times SC winner.

My fear is that if he plays poorly, he is going to hear it from the crowd. Expect the worst, hope for the best.

If he plays poorly I hope Dubas hears it from the crowd, not Murray.

 

[ER89]

Look man, I can insult you as much as you’re trying to insult me, but I’ll try not to.

I don’t like this as a trade, but to say something like “it’s like offering $500k over asking on a house that only can be sold to you” is just fantasy.

How do you keep mrazek and aquire a starting goaltender? That’s the opportunity cost, you’re arguing about. We should have been given more for Murray, because we gave up assets to move mrazek. And because Buffalo would have gotten more. Except Buffalo isn’t desperate for a goalie in the same way toronto is.

Buffalo would have gotten the same retention and the difference between a second and a third. Which isn’t the same as $500k above asking price on a house purchase.

If you don’t trade mrazek, and since you’re so smart, what goalie do you bring in? Or do you simply stand pat with mrazek and kallgren? Those are the realities of the situation. Dubas isn’t “a moron” because he couldn’t get what amounts to the value of like a 5th round pick at the end of the day (Buffalo moving up in the draft is equivalent to a 2nd in value, Dubas got a 3rd and a 7th, and the difference between the 2nd in value that Buffalo got and the 3rd that Toronto got is somewhere around a 5th round pick).

Dubas also (it seems) thinks Murray is the best goalie available that he can fit under the cap. So he’s not going to walk away over that value difference (which is tiny to begin with) and go with what he thinks is a talent drop off, and I wouldn’t want him to.

Now I don’t like the trade, but this is what Dubas and his team evaluated as the best talent he could put between the pipes. As well as the question of term. Who else is that good (potentially) who won’t demand 5-6 years on the cap?

Would I do something drastic? Would I trade Marner or Nylander to kick the cap door wide open and make a more permanent solution in net? Maybe? I dunno.

You took one shitty college course from some online certificate farming scam ‘university’ and you think you can just ignore all the realities of the situation and all of the complexities and call everyone out for being stupider than you over the value of a5th round pick?

All that matters is if Murray is good and healthy and consistent and that he’s only signed for two years. All of that, especially the term, also comes with a price.

The biggest price of all, and the most valuable is the 25% retention. Would 50 have been better? Sure, but obviously that wasn’t going to happen. Ottawa would rather move down from a top 10 pick to not retain 50%

I'm not insulting you man. I'm speaking in generalities. So when I say you, I'm not referring to you directly. So i apologize if you felt insulted. And i probably could have worded my post better. Having said that your post ( and this time i am aiming it at you, is quite silly and frankly makes no sense). And assuming I'm studying from an online university if just bizarre lmao but you do you.

Now me being smart doesn't mean i know who is available in the nhl - obviously you asked that question rhetorically. Having said that matt murray's market was non existent. Even if murray was the best value- why do we get less than what his market value was initially set at. It doesn't matter that the different in what we got vs buffalo was seemingly miniscule to you. All that adds up.

Lastly, he's the one who didn't foresee the fact that there would be no goalies left. He wasn't proactive so then to say well what else do we do is so freaking stupid. It's a GM's job and to basically get cornered into accepting a trade for matt murray to lead this team is inexcusable in and of itself. But then to go out and not get max value is asinine. Especially considering we had to pay to get rid of mrazek.

Plus you think murray at 4.6 is going to allow us to round out our bottom six effectively? Ridiculous. And im not calling you out because I ignored the reality of the situation. I'm calling you out because frankly you did and this was a shit fking deal and your analogy that you replied initially to was sound but you made shit up and now you're getting call out for it.

 

[All Mod Cons]

Dubas is strongly motivated to line up his expiring contracts - Murray expires in 2 years along with Matthews and Nylander (also Muzzin and Brodie).

I'm guessing that's why he wanted Murray at 2 years and 4.7 per instead of Campbell at 5x5.

Not trying to justify it, I think it's a terrible trade personally, but I suspect that was Dubas' rationale - he didnt want to go past 2 years on any of the goaltender options.

You don't think it's simply because he played in the Soo? I think that's the be all and end all of the matter. Don't think the 2 years left was even a thought.

 

[JKG33]

Any options in mind/available via UFA?

Manson used to be physical I think but now he's older and has a cup. The older you get its often you become more complacent after success so don't know if he'd be willing to provide that physicality and play the role we'd need. He's also probably wanting a decent penny on his deal

@Knies iT proposed a Hague for Sandin deal which I think would be a good one for us. We don't need Sandin's style of game really. Niemela can provide something similar in 2 years at RHD.

Hague has size, a great shot and can play up and down the lineup.

Rielly, Hague, Muzzin at LHD gives us 2 physical LHDs

Brodie, Lilijgren, Giordano

Not the most physical crop but we know Giordano has been willing to engage and throw hits in the past.

I do think we could use a physical 7Dile Schenn if he's a UFA to give Gio games off as he's 38 or so and shouldn't be used in every reg season game

They can't afford any significant UFA d-man. Schenn could be a trade option making only $800k, but I doubt he wants to leave Vancouver and I doubt they move him as he's more valuable next to Hughes than he is anywhere else. Those two were great together in both of Schenn's Vancouver stints

 

[BertCorbeau]

He could have just spent 3x4.75 on husso and had a goalie that hasn't been hurt for 3 years

Well in that scenario they would give up a draft pick and have to sign an extra year.

In this case they gain two draft picks, with one less year.

Husso has nice numbers but is 27, with 66 games under his belt. And he wasn’t that good in the playoffs.

Who’s a bigger risk? Hard to say but the Leafs at least gained assets in assuming their risk.

It’s almost the same with Georgiev