Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[deprw]

I don’t understand this logic of “wait and see” before commenting on the trade details. The circumstances surrounding the trade are known right now, they don’t change based on future performance, you made the deal with the realities at the time. Nobody here thought 50 percent retention was good value, given Ottawa was actively needing/wanting to dump a bad asset. This idea we suddenly had to up our offer because other suitors stepped up, only matters because we too were desperate, we put ourselves in a precarious position, which meant we couldn’t just walk away when the price rose. Nothing that transpires this year changes the fact we over paid for Murray, i don’t see other deals apologizing for being a “steal”. To me the deal is baked in, If he fails or not, we paid too much because of our own failings. There’s a reason Ottawa is ecstatic with the deal.​

So since we got good value out of Kadri, it was a good trade and infinite win for us. I love this logic. We can cut out 3/4 of stupid arguments here.

I think making these assumptions of price going up or down, makes your message a speculation. If you have all the facts you might be able to point a mistake from Dubas, if you don`t have, it is pure speculation. Making a statement in that case is bold move. We don`t know the market or the negotiations.

There is limited amount of time on trade and UFA market. In some point you have to make your moves. Goaltending is pretty important position, so gambling with Dorion might have blown on Dubas face and pretty badly.

You can`t wait forever and there wasn`t surplus of legit starters on the market. We made our pick and added Samsonov as insurance. If Murray is good for us it`s interesting take to claim this bad move if the stance is that we should have walked away from starting goalie with good contract + 2 picks, because we should have squeezed more. I`d say majority of this board would be ecstatic if we can find legit starting goalie. I don`t see Campbell as one.

In other way around. Even if we hit a home run with Murray. Anyone can hardly say that this trade wasn`t a gamble and a risk. So it kind of goes both ways, but I think it`s a manageable loss for us, if by your logic Ottawa pays for our starter and we draft with their picks, while Murray is stopping pucks for us. I could live with that, could you?

 

[Menzinger]

Had the Leafs won the cup I doubt anyone would care what they are gambling on.

I only care what the Leafs do, other teams can do what they like. “If everyone jumped off a bridge……”.

I don't care who the Avs have in net either. But the actions of other teams do help us learn about what other options were available to the Leafs.

This summers goalie market told me - lots of teams banking on educated guesses to pay off with very little safe bets being made

 

[ACC1224]

I don't care who the Avs have in net either. But the actions of other teams do help us learn about what other options were available to the Leafs.

This summers goalie market told me - lots of teams banking on educated guesses to pay off with very little safe bets being made

Yep lots of goalies moved around. Who made the right move is all that matters.

 

[DarkKnight]

So since we got good value out of Kadri, it was a good trade and infinite win for us. I love this logic. We can cut out 3/4 of stupid arguments here.

I think making these assumptions of price going up or down, makes your message a speculation. If you have all the facts you might be able to point a mistake from Dubas, if you don`t have, it is pure speculation. Making a statement in that case is bold move. We don`t know the market or the negotiations.

There is limited amount of time on trade and UFA market. In some point you have to make your moves. Goaltending is pretty important position, so gambling with Dorion might have blown on Dubas face and pretty badly.

You can`t wait forever and there wasn`t surplus of legit starters on the market. We made our pick and added Samsonov as insurance. If Murray is good for us it`s interesting take to claim this bad move if the stance is that we should have walked away from starting goalie with good contract + 2 picks, because we should have squeezed more. I`d say majority of this board would be ecstatic if we can find legit starting goalie. I don`t see Campbell as one.

In other way around. Even if we hit a home run with Murray. Anyone can hardly say that this trade wasn`t a gamble and a risk. So it kind of goes both ways, but I think it`s a manageable loss for us, if by your logic Ottawa pays for our starter and we draft with their picks, while Murray is stopping pucks for us. I could live with that, could you?

You keeping mentioning logic, but I can’t understand any of it? Kadri? Just a weird qualification. The price for Murray, it’s the Dubists apologists here who keep bringing up other “suitors” were there for Ottawa willing to pay that retention, I’m actually giving them that with my argument .

I’m over it here, the whole hockey world has catergorized our goalie situation as a gamble, where’re stranglers can acknowledge reality, it isn’t a “narrative”, that’s their bias, have at it.

 

[Its not your fault]

Murray is ultimately a gamble, but he's not automatically going to be a terrible goalie. He has pedigree and talent and I don't think anyone should doubt that he could put in a good performance with a better defense in front of him. The big concern is his health, but I guess the Leafs were never going to be able to get a goalie that they can rely on 100%. I'm still not a fan of the trade, but maybe a goalie with a playoff track record was what they needed.

What's weird is people who believe this was due to cap constraints rather than a purposeful decision by Dubas. He easily could have given comparable money to Campbell (or Husso or Kuemper) and chose not to

Double down on 1 of 2 goalies being a decent trade chip next year.

 

[Mess]

I don't care who the Avs have in net either. But the actions of other teams do help us learn about what other options were available to the Leafs.

This summers goalie market told me - lots of teams banking on educated guesses to pay off with very little safe bets being made

Just curious if you are of the opinion that IF this high risk gamble doesn't work that it should result in a new GM/Coach the following year.
or
If this is simply a gamble with no consequences if it doesn't work, resulting in another failed season and we just try something new the following year?

Remember this is the GM that believed Garrett Sparks was the Leafs goalie of the future, then he replaced Freddy Andersen with Jack Campbell thinking that was the answer, then he brought in Petr Mzazek to be the 1B tandem with Campbell 1A and thought that was the answer., This past history isn't exactly providing one with the feeling that goalie evaluation is a strong point.

So this will be year 5 for the GM and this will be goalies #4 Murray and #5 Samsonov heading into another tandem plan as the revolving door continues, with each season the stats of the incoming goalies < previous ones they are intended to upgrade,

 

[Leaf Fans]

Just curious if you are of the opinion that IF this high risk gamble doesn't work that it should result in a new GM/Coach the following year.
or
If this is simply a gamble with no consequences if it doesn't work, resulting in another failed season and we just try something new the following year?

Remember this is the GM that believed Garrett Sparks was the Leafs goalie of the future, then he replaced Freddy Andersen with Jack Campbell thinking that was the answer, then he brought in Petr Mzazek to be the 1B tandem with Campbell 1A and thought that was the answer., This past history isn't exactly providing one with the feeling that goalie evaluation is a strong point.

So this will be year 5 for the GM and this will be goalies #4 Murray and #5 Samsonov heading into another tandem plan as the revolving door continues, with each season the stats of the incoming goalies < previous ones they are intended to upgrade,

He believed that Garret Sparks was the Leafs backup goalie of the future. So much so that instead of putting Sparks on waivers, he put McElhinney and Pickard on waivers (both were claimed). But for sure Dubas has worked hard trying to get the right goaltender. None worked so far, but he hasn't given up on having an excellent goal-tending tandem. Perhaps this year. Dubas is not afraid to take a risk. Hopefully, we will get the reward.

 

[LeafEgo]

So since we got good value out of Kadri, it was a good trade and infinite win for us. I love this logic. We can cut out 3/4 of stupid arguments here.

I think making these assumptions of price going up or down, makes your message a speculation. If you have all the facts you might be able to point a mistake from Dubas, if you don`t have, it is pure speculation. Making a statement in that case is bold move. We don`t know the market or the negotiations.

There is limited amount of time on trade and UFA market. In some point you have to make your moves. Goaltending is pretty important position, so gambling with Dorion might have blown on Dubas face and pretty badly.

You can`t wait forever and there wasn`t surplus of legit starters on the market. We made our pick and added Samsonov as insurance. If Murray is good for us it`s interesting take to claim this bad move if the stance is that we should have walked away from starting goalie with good contract + 2 picks, because we should have squeezed more. I`d say majority of this board would be ecstatic if we can find legit starting goalie. I don`t see Campbell as one.

In other way around. Even if we hit a home run with Murray. Anyone can hardly say that this trade wasn`t a gamble and a risk. So it kind of goes both ways, but I think it`s a manageable loss for us, if by your logic Ottawa pays for our starter and we draft with their picks, while Murray is stopping pucks for us. I could live with that, could you?

You can be a bad negotiator and make a good trade at the same time: I.e. get the right person but not get a good deal. And it's possible for it to result overall in a win.

If Murray becomes a top goalie that is an overall win - no doubt. The abysmal Dubas track record for negotiations would remain in tact, but he would be credited with a great offseason move.

If it doesn't go that way the bold gamble will be looked at very badly, reminiscent of Shannys bold gamble four years ago.

 

[deprw]

You can be a bad negotiator and make a good trade at the same time: I.e. get the right person but not get a good deal. And it's possible for it to result overall in a win.

If Murray becomes a top goalie that is an overall win - no doubt. The abysmal Dubas track record for negotiations would remain in tact, but he would be credited with a great offseason move.

If it doesn't go that way the bold gamble will be looked at very badly, reminiscent of Shannys bold gamble four years ago.

That's True, but we don't have the facts to judge this fairly, if we could have squeezed more assets. Seems like more retention was off the table. We don't know about Ottawa's goal in this, were they willing to keep him for one more year.

We don't have to make that trade, but if we saw Murray as best potential starter we couldn't wait out forever.

My stance on this relies on the fact that if Murray succeed here the thing was to close this out. Ottawa paid us anyway, if we got our starter for two runs it's still better than most UFA options.

In any case this falls on Dubas and I see this as gamble. If this goes all out Mrazek it's hard to sell as price wasn't great and this would be one more goalie blunder on Dubas.

Bright side is that this isn't team killing mistake. Signing Kuemper or Campbell could have been. This is manageable in many cases.

 

[banks]

This is the unfortunate reality of the post-Andersen era. So many posters wanted Freddy gone, and didn't care that there was no clear improvement to replace him with.

Now we're on the goalie carousel. Campbell, Kallgren, Mrazek, and now Murray and Samsonov. All in a short period of time. And all burning time from the Cup-window while we see if they can do the job.

I like Murray and Samsonov just fine. But I don't like taking a year (or two) from Matthews' prime to see if they can be starters here.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Remember this is the GM that believed Garrett Sparks was the Leafs goalie of the future

No he didn't. He thought his 25 year old, Calder Cup-winning, AHL goaltender of the year was worth a shot as backup before being tossed away, like literally any GM would.

then he replaced Freddy Andersen with Jack Campbell thinking that was the answer

No he didn't. Campbell was brought in as the backup to Andersen, and he only "replaced" Andersen when Andersen was playing like hot garbage.

with each season the stats of the incoming goalies < previous ones they are intended to upgrade,

That's not even true. Campbell had better stats than Andersen when he took over as starter, Mrazek came in with better stats than the departing Andersen, and Murray/Samsonov performed better in their games last year than Campbell/Mrazek.

 

[Zybalto]

This is the unfortunate reality of the post-Andersen era. So many posters wanted Freddy gone, and didn't care that there was no clear improvement to replace him with.

Now we're on the goalie carousel. Campbell, Kallgren, Mrazek, and now Murray and Samsonov. All in a short period of time. And all burning time from the Cup-window while we see if they can do the job.

I like Murray and Samsonov just fine. But I don't like taking a year (or two) from Matthews' prime to see if they can be starters here.

I don't think it was a matter of wanting Freddy gone, it's that he had to go.

Injuries took such a toll on him he became no longer effective for us. He was basically perenially injured the last year and a half. Good on him for getting a 2x4.5 contract as he was seen as a massive gamble to the league and guess what? He once again got injured, blowing his knee out before the playoffs wiping out what had been a great bounce-back season for him as he was able to stay healthy for more than 2 months.. The first year was a failure in Carolina due to injuries again. Last year was another Freddy failure year, his third in a row. Why are so many saying Freddy had a good year last year? He really didnt.

Campbell looked like a solid Freddy replacement up until mid-January of this past season (the playoffs against the Habs was a worry though).

From the time the Leafs acquired him to January 14th of this season, almost 2 years, here is how he ranked among the 48 goalies to play at least 2000 minutes in the league:

1. Saros: .930
2. Campbell: .928
3. Shesterkin: .927
4. Vasy: .923
5. Sorokin: .922

Doesn't that look like a good replacement? Who would have known he would then morph into one of the worst starters in the league the last 3 months of the season? He's not able to handle the workload of a starter is the problem IMO. We brought in Mrazek coming off a .923 season in a smaller role last year to try and illeviate that issue and Mrazek blew his groin out in the first game of the season and could never get on track after that.

The big problem I see around here is that there is no real magic bullet here. The covid cap (and more importantly the stupid regressive hard cap) screwed things hard. They decided to go with a still young 2x champ with a small term who they didn't have to give up assets for (and even got assets for) along with a young high pedigree guy who has been struggling in the covid era but came off a decent playoff. I still don't see how this is any more of a gamble to what anyone else is doing as there wasnt any perfect guy for the job available and no contender that needed goaltending could afford one anyways.

The big truth that no one is even touching is this.....

With a hard cap, all contracts are signed with projections going forward of a rising cap. Ethically, you should NEVER stop the cap from going up. It screws over the most important teams in the league (yknow, the ones actually spending money which means fans give a crap) and does very little to help the smaller clubs. So far it's been an abject failure and any fan of a big market team worth their salt has the abolition of the cap at the top of their lists. With modern sports economics, theres a reason why the Lakers, Yankees, etc. are able to go through these luls and eventually buy a championship. Theres a reason why the Red Sox broke their curse (2nd highest payroll in the league the first year they won, 2nd, 4th and 1st for payroll the other 3 times). If they wernt able to spend that way, they are still stuck in the curse. With hockey being an even more random sport, the salary to spend will matter even more....and if there was no cap, and with good management that would be willing to spend to the hilt finally in place, the Leafs may have had their own cup by now......but the perception of Leafs fans as willing to watch a crap team and still spend money has been taken to a new level where they are actually willing to get stuck in a system that, by definition, doesn't reward them for being the best hockey fans in the world. Why the hell do I want to care about governmental tax incentives affecting the game the way they do? I want to watch a friggin game.

/rant over

 

[Mess]

I don't think it was a matter of wanting Freddy gone, it's that he had to go.

Injuries took such a toll on him he became no longer effective for us. He was basically perennially injured the last year and a half. Good on him for getting a 2x4.5 contract as he was seen as a massive gamble to the league and guess what? He once again got injured, blowing his knee out before the playoffs wiping out what had been a great bounce-back season for him as he was able to stay healthy for more than 2 months.. The first year was a failure in Carolina due to injuries again. Last year was another Freddy failure year, his third in a row. Why are so many saying Freddy had a good year last year? He really didnt.

Campbell looked like a solid Freddy replacement up until mid-January of this past season (the playoffs against the Habs was a worry though).

From the time the Leafs acquired him to January 14th of this season, almost 2 years, here is how he ranked among the 48 goalies to play at least 2000 minutes in the league:

1. Saros: .930
2. Campbell: .928
3. Shesterkin: .927
4. Vasy: .923
5. Sorokin: .922

Doesn't that look like a good replacement? Who would have known he would then morph into one of the worst starters in the league the last 3 months of the season? He's not able to handle the workload of a starter is the problem IMO. We brought in Mrazek coming off a .923 season in a smaller role last year to try and illeviate that issue and Mrazek blew his groin out in the first game of the season and could never get on track after that.

The big problem I see around here is that there is no real magic bullet here. The covid cap (and more importantly the stupid regressive hard cap) screwed things hard. They decided to go with a still young 2x champ with a small term who they didn't have to give up assets for (and even got assets for) along with a young high pedigree guy who has been struggling in the covid era but came off a decent playoff. I still don't see how this is any more of a gamble to what anyone else is doing as there wasnt any perfect guy for the job available and no contender that needed goaltending could afford one anyways.

/rant over

Excellent post now do Murray and Samsonov in comparison to Campbell if you don't mind over that same time frame or even full seasons.

 

[Zybalto]

Excellent post now do Murray and Samsonov in comparison to Campbell if you don't mind over that same time frame or even full seasons.

I think Murray has been explained to death and considering he was one of the goalies with the worst defensive support in the league last season, lets see what he does behind an actual team. His save% was still better than Allen, Gibson, Binnington, etc. etc. and his more advanced metrics were solid. Health is the issue here of course but if he can stay healthy for a full season, he can do well IMO. His numbers last season were better than both of Andersen's final two years with the Leafs. Not my first choice but it's such a different atmosphere we have to wait and see.

Samsonov was 52-22-8 with the caps. Why don't you love him?

All kidding aside, After an excellent .913% rookie campaign, high pedigree prospect Samsonov had his ups and downs for sure the last two years being one of the players hurt by covid worse than others (and got hit twice) his 2nd year and not really able to find his game again his super inconsistent third season.

The Leafs had the 4th best record in the NHL last season since Dec. 1st with the 27th ranked save%.

I think these guys can beat that.

 

[IPS]

This is the unfortunate reality of the post-Andersen era. So many posters wanted Freddy gone, and didn't care that there was no clear improvement to replace him with.

Ever since Keefe took over with his system of D pinching and attacking pretty much every single opportunity - goaltending has turned into this crazy merry go around where no goalie can ever be consistent playing here despite the "metrics" saying we allegedly have a top-5 defense in the league (we definitely don't).

Probably a combination of our system being extremely hard for goalies to play in and Dubas not knowing his eyeball from his asscheek when it comes to assessing goalies.

 

[Mess]

Ever since Keefe took over with his system of D pinching and attacking pretty much every single opportunity - goaltending has turned into this crazy merry go around where no goalie can ever be consistent playing here despite the "metrics" saying we allegedly have a top-5 defense in the league (we definitely don't).

Probably a combination of our system being extremely hard for goalies to play in and Dubas not knowing his eyeball from his asscheek when it comes to assessing goalies.

I'm glad you said that because I wasn't sure others were paying attention as a lot of Leaf fans believe Leafs are a better defensive team and therefore #'s should improve, but the goalie numbers before Dubas and Keefe are better on former teams, get worse under the Leafs and then even get better when free of Leafs system.

Examples of stats to support your opinion.

Before Keefe : 2020-21 .. Petr Mrazek with Carolina ... Goals saved above expected +7.1 (8th best)
With Keefe : 2021-22 ..... Petr Mrazek with Toronto ... GSAx = -11.6 (106th OA)

Before Keefe: 2018-19 .. Jack Campbell with LA ... GSAx = +10.7 (10th OA)
With Keefe: 2021-22 ... Jack Campbell with TOR .. GSAx = - 2.3 (68th OA)

Before Keefe: 2018-19 - Freddy Andersen with TOR .. GSAx= + 12.0 (7th OA)
With Keefe: 2020-21 - Freddy Andersen with TOR .... GSAx = - 4.8 (62nd OA)
After Keefe 2021-22 - Freddy Andersen Carolina ..... GSAx = +27.8 (3rd OA)

Notice the positive "goals saved above expected" without Dubas/Keefe and then the negative results with Dubas/Keefe before departing and being replaced.

Its too bad instead of blaming the goalies and constantly having a revolving door the Leafs could start with a real coach like Barry Trotz instead Dubas pal Keefe and identify system and coaching as the weakest link.

Matt Murray enters Toronto with a limited +3.2 GSAx but if this goalie trend continues as above as it has in the past, than that positive could very well end the season as a negative.

1 in an anomaly, 2 is a coincidence, 3 is a trend and a problem!!!

 

[Zybalto]

Ever since Keefe took over with his system of D pinching and attacking pretty much every single opportunity - goaltending has turned into this crazy merry go around where no goalie can ever be consistent playing here despite the "metrics" saying we allegedly have a top-5 defense in the league (we definitely don't).

Probably a combination of our system being extremely hard for goalies to play in and Dubas not knowing his eyeball from his asscheek when it comes to assessing goalies.

Leafs under Keefe are top 10 in every defensive number that is tracked.

Campbell the 2nd best save% in the league over his first 2 years with the team (before wearing down and taking an injury as he'd never started a full season before). Is he the greatest goalie ever? To be able to play in such an EXTREMELY hard system (that fools all the defensive stats) and still pull off those numbers? What were we thinking letting him go right?


Andersen was wracked by injury the entire Keefe tenure.

Mrazek blowing out his groin his first game and hurt half the season and couldnt get going.

..and there is the story of the 3 bigger names we had play net.

This is why I didnt want Murray actually as he's....injury prone. Not gonna lose my mind though as I'm also really curious as to what he brings to the table on a good team. I'm just worried that even if he takes the ball and runs, it's gonna be another version of the Andersen nightmare last season with the Canes.....finally healthy for a few months and then a no show for the playoffs.

 

[LeafEgo]

That's True, but we don't have the facts to judge this fairly, if we could have squeezed more assets. Seems like more retention was off the table. We don't know about Ottawa's goal in this, were they willing to keep him for one more year.

We don't have to make that trade, but if we saw Murray as best potential starter we couldn't wait out forever.

My stance on this relies on the fact that if Murray succeed here the thing was to close this out. Ottawa paid us anyway, if we got our starter for two runs it's still better than most UFA options.

In any case this falls on Dubas and I see this as gamble. If this goes all out Mrazek it's hard to sell as price wasn't great and this would be one more goalie blunder on Dubas.

Bright side is that this isn't team killing mistake. Signing Kuemper or Campbell could have been. This is manageable in many cases.

You might be reaching too much into the micro details here - we got a bad deal because we were backed into a corner. Dubas himself said something along the lines of 'wanting a better deal but they said no'. Pretty funny.

At the same time Dubas was working to unload Mrazek, the other teams were working to secure their new goaltenders. We got last pick and paid the price.

In this event I don't think we need to lose much sleep on how much better the value of the trade could have been anyway. It's really all about how does Murray perform in our most important position.

 

[Zybalto]

I'm glad you said that because I wasn't sure others were paying attention as a lot of Leaf fans believe Leafs are a better defensive team and therefore #'s should improve, but the goalie numbers before Dubas and Keefe are better on former teams, get worse under the Leafs and then even get better when free of Leafs system.

Examples of stats to support your opinion.

Before Keefe : 2020-21 .. Petr Mrazek with Carolina ... Goals saved above expected +7.1 (8th best)
With Keefe : 2021-22 ..... Petr Mrazek with Toronto ... GSAx = -11.6 (106th OA)

Before Keefe: 2018-19 .. Jack Campbell with LA ... GSAx = +10.7 (10th OA)
With Keefe: 2021-22 ... Jack Campbell with TOR .. GSAx = - 2.3 (68th OA)

Before Keefe: 2018-19 - Freddy Andersen with TOR .. GSAx= + 12.0 (7th OA)
With Keefe: 2020-21 - Freddy Andersen with TOR .... GSAx = - 4.8 (62nd OA)
After Keefe 2021-22 - Freddy Andersen Carolina ..... GSAx = +27.8 (3rd OA)

Notice the positive "goals saved above expected" without Dubas/Keefe and then the negative results with Dubas/Keefe before departing and being replaced.

Its too bad instead of blaming the goalies and constantly having a revolving door the Leafs could start with a real coach like Barry Trotz instead Dubas pal Keefe and identify system and coaching as the weakest link.

Matt Murray enters Toronto with a limited +3.2 GSAx but if this goalie trend continues as above as it has in the past, than that positive could very well end the season as a negative.

Nice to see you using GSAx I guess. Spinning the numbers with injured goalies isnt going to convince many people though.

Just try explaining how Campbell had the 2nd best save% in the league from when we got him Feb. 2020 to mid Jan. this past season. If you answer anything ever, just give me your breakdown of that. Did he just get lucky for 2 years and then the Leafs bad D kicked in? (the injury/fatigue issues that came from never having been a full season starter until last season just cant be it right?)

Looking at team xGA since Keefe took over the team, the top 5 defensive teams in the league have been:

Bruins
Wild
Avs
Leafs
Lightning

The Leafs great defensive numbers are why GSAx numbers are so low for Campbell despite a .914 this season. It's because Toronto is such a good defensive team, its a cakewalk to play for them compared to most other teams for a goalie.

The defensive turnaround for the Leafs started the moment Keefe was hired too. Just need a goalie to take the reigns here and not get hurt.

I do like Trotz and all but he was blessed with great goaltending and it was that and his solid coaching that kept that brutally built team successful. The Isles had the 3rd best save% in the NHL last season.....and missed the playoffs badly. Its a shame that he got canned for keeping that team afloat but, hey, coaches are usually first in line right?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I have much more optimism that Samsonov may turn his career around with us rather than Murray. He can't stay healthy and it's been a long time since he was actually good. I really hope Samsonov develops that potential he has here. Falling into a starting goalie at his age would be a dream scenario for us rn.

 

[CDN24]

I have much more optimism that Samsonov may turn his career around with us rather than Murray. He can't stay healthy and it's been a long time since he was actually good. I really hope Samsonov develops that potential he has here. Falling into a starting goalie at his age would be a dream scenario for us rn.

I tend to agree, I have more faith in Samsonov than Murray at this point. what happens next year if Samsonov is great and Murray is meh?

Samsonov will need a new contract- he is a RFA eligible for arbitration. The money to pay him will still be tied up in Murray, so another trade down to off load?. That is the problem with this Murray/Samsonov gamble, it really is a Murray gamble as unless he works out Leafs are right back in the same spot next June.

 

[IPS]

Leafs under Keefe are top 10 in every defensive number that is tracked.

Campbell the 2nd best save% in the league over his first 2 years with the team (before wearing down and taking an injury as he'd never started a full season before). Is he the greatest goalie ever? To be able to play in such an EXTREMELY hard system (that fools all the defensive stats) and still pull off those numbers? What were we thinking letting him go right?


Andersen was wracked by injury the entire Keefe tenure.

Mrazek blowing out his groin his first game and hurt half the season and couldnt get going.

..and there is the story of the 3 bigger names we had play net.

This is why I didnt want Murray actually as he's....injury prone. Not gonna lose my mind though as I'm also really curious as to what he brings to the table on a good team. I'm just worried that even if he takes the ball and runs, it's gonna be another version of the Andersen nightmare last season with the Canes.....finally healthy for a few months and then a no show for the playoffs.

I won't lie, I was fully onboard of the Campbell train in the 2020-2021 pandemic season.

Unfortunately it seemed like that season was an aberration, as Campbell returned to his career averages (below actually, and over a much larger sample) this past season. It's not unusual at all for goalies to pull off a season like Campbell did in 2 years ago and return to their averages the very next season. And he got a contract that lined up exactly with those results - a midrange payday which is about smack dab in the middle of what starting goalies get paid.

And the Leafs are top-10 in every defensive stat except actual goals against. A lot of the teams ahead of us in this regard have all dealt with goaltending situations that appear very similar to ours but they produced better results.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Ever since Keefe took over with his system of D pinching and attacking pretty much every single opportunity - goaltending has turned into this crazy merry go around where no goalie can ever be consistent playing here despite the "metrics" saying we allegedly have a top-5 defense in the league (we definitely don't).

Probably a combination of our system being extremely hard for goalies to play in and Dubas not knowing his eyeball from his asscheek when it comes to assessing goalies.

Results matter more than "advanced stats".

It's crazy that so many think we are a top 5 defensive team.

 

[Menzinger]

Just curious if you are of the opinion that IF this high risk gamble doesn't work that it should result in a new GM/Coach the following year.
or
If this is simply a gamble with no consequences if it doesn't work, resulting in another failed season and we just try something new the following year?

Remember this is the GM that believed Garrett Sparks was the Leafs goalie of the future, then he replaced Freddy Andersen with Jack Campbell thinking that was the answer, then he brought in Petr Mzazek to be the 1B tandem with Campbell 1A and thought that was the answer., This past history isn't exactly providing one with the feeling that goalie evaluation is a strong point.

So this will be year 5 for the GM and this will be goalies #4 Murray and #5 Samsonov heading into another tandem plan as the revolving door continues, with each season the stats of the incoming goalies < previous ones they are intended to upgrade,

I think one can certainly make the case that if the goaltending flops, and the front office doesn't do any additional moves to rectify it, they likely have put themselves in an earned very vulnerable position as to their future job security.

Whether or no the MLSE board opts to act on that is another matter all together.

 

[Tarmore]

Results matter more than "advanced stats".

You must LOVE Samsonov then his 'results' are 52-22-8.

Them is some pretty impressive 'results'! No?