Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Gary Nylund]

I don’t understand this logic of “wait and see” before commenting on the trade details. The circumstances surrounding the trade are known right now, they don’t change based on future performance, you made the deal with the realities at the time. Nobody here thought 50 percent retention was good value, given Ottawa was actively needing/wanting to dump a bad asset. This idea we suddenly had to up our offer because other suitors stepped up, only matters because we too were desperate, we put ourselves in a precarious position, which meant we couldn’t just walk away when the price rose. Nothing that transpires this year changes the fact we over paid for Murray, i don’t see other deals apologizing for being a “steal”. To me the deal is baked in, If he fails or not, we paid too much because of our own failings. There’s a reason Ottawa is ecstatic with the deal.​

What makes you say we couldn't just walk away when the price rose? Do you have a source for this - the price rose?

 

[Mess]

I think just about everyone would prefer Talbot, but we don't know what the ask was from us from Minny; maybe they knew we were desperate and wanted an outrageous package. Then when we go for the Ottawa deal they go "welp, guess we held out for too much" and go for plan B.

We'll never know.

*edit*

The more I think about it, Im not sure about Talbot. Upcoming UFA, if he DOES have a good year then we are right back to square one.

Kind of a crap sandwich all around.

Ill give the Sens props though for this off season (did I just say that?)

What if Murray (coming of a serious concussion, which should concern people) has another injury plague and struggling year like last season that only allowed him to play in 20 games?

If he only played 20 games for the Leafs for the same reasons, then who is going to play the other 62 games and perhaps the playoffs?

Can Samsonov coming off a .899 sv% season & near league worst GSAx of -12.1, along with Woll and Kallgren give the Leafs enough in relief to make the playoffs?

Leafs might be back to square one next year as well with the choice they made,

Our Leafs have doubled down not only on performance concerns but injury concerns as well with Murray. We're all holding our collective breaths every time Murray gets bumped in the crease he might not be heading for LTIR.

 

[LeafEgo]

I don’t understand this logic of “wait and see” before commenting on the trade details. The circumstances surrounding the trade are known right now, they don’t change based on future performance, you made the deal with the realities at the time. Nobody here thought 50 percent retention was good value, given Ottawa was actively needing/wanting to dump a bad asset. This idea we suddenly had to up our offer because other suitors stepped up, only matters because we too were desperate, we put ourselves in a precarious position, which meant we couldn’t just walk away when the price rose. Nothing that transpires this year changes the fact we over paid for Murray, i don’t see other deals apologizing for being a “steal”. To me the deal is baked in, If he fails or not, we paid too much because of our own failings. There’s a reason Ottawa is ecstatic with the deal.​

The price paid will forever be too high, a result of being backed into a corner, but if we somehow end up with a vezina caliber goalie Dubie should get credit for a great trade made regardless.

Results matter in my books - although that's hotly contested around here.

What's funny is if we can expect consistency from the Dubas fan club then a vezina winning Murray wouldn't be celebrated for Dubas' record, since that would be using 'hindsight'. Unless they have created conditions where Dubie can do no wrong?

 

[TorMapleJays]

This is the most fascinating part of all this from me.

The Ottawa Senators have traded goalies with the Minnesota Wild, acquiring Cam Talbot in exchange for Filip Gustavsson.

This comes one day after sending struggling goalie Matt Murray to the Toronto Maple Leafs in exchange with future draft picks and retention to dump the contract, Murray is coming off an injury plague season appearing in just 20 games posting 5 wins, while seeing time in the AHL, after clearing NHL waivers.

Talbot ranked 10th among NHL goaltenders in victories (32) over 49 regular-season games in 2021-22, with a .911 sv% and 2.77 GAA with 3 shutouts helping the Wild to a 113 point season.

"Cam is experienced and provides us with greater goaltending stability heading into next season," said Senators general manager Pierre Dorion in a news release. "He was instrumental in helping Minnesota reach the playoffs in each of his two seasons with the Wild. The tandem of he and Anton Forsberg sets us up nicely for the upcoming year."

Ottawa is willing to trade Murray their struggling goalie in the same Div to an arch rival team Toronto they're chasing in the standings, and then go out and replace him with a significant upgrade in net Talbot that just lead Minnesota Wild to a 113 point season, similar to Leafs 115 point season.

This looks like a move where the gap between Leafs and Ottawa is going to narrow in the standings this upcoming season with Ottawa improving on their own goaltending at Leafs expense now. With Leafs going to drop and Sens going to rise in 2022-23 standings but by how much?

Wouldn't Leafs going after Talbot and not Murray have made more sense for a team chasing playoff success?

Allegedly, Cam approached Dubas before Dubas got Murray.

You know how that conversation went.

Let me know what team you won the Calder Cup with.

That required winning playoff series.

I won the Tyke house league select tournament several years ago. Does that count too?

 

[Deuce Awesome]

What if Murray (coming of a serious concussion, which should concern people) has another injury plague and struggling year like last season that only allowed him to play in 20 games?

If he only played 20 games for the Leafs for the same reasons, then who is going to play the other 62 games and perhaps the playoffs?

Can Samsonov coming off a .899 sv% season & near league worst GSAx of -12.1, along with Woll and Kallgren give the Leafs enough in relief to make the playoffs?

Leafs might be back to square one next year as well with the choice they made,

Our Leafs have doubled down not only on performance concerns but injury concerns as well with Murray. We're all holding our collective breaths every time Murray gets bumped in the crease he might not be heading for LTIR.

Lots of goalies get concussions. Probably more have had them then not. Im sure the Leafs did their DD with all that, if they aren't worried then neither am I. Anderson had concussion issues and still managed to play half decent, and we gave up assets for him.

Goalies come up during the season all the time. There was just a shortage in this off season. So if they both end up sucking, then a deal could be made for a "rental", some team will have some kid come into camp and rip things up someone expendable. Happens every year.

The Leafs have tried to trade for a supposed good goalie (bernier, toskala, anderson) and meh is the best we could do on all of them.

At least now we have a respectable D core, which will be a a boost.

I still say one of them will be alright though.

Allegedly, Cam approached Dubas before Dubas got Murray.

You know how that conversation went.

Talbot: Dude, why do you still wear dumb glasses like that? Can't you afford Lazic by now?

Dubas: Alright call Dorion

 

[Tarmore]

Allegedly, Cam approached Dubas before Dubas got Murray.

You know how that conversation went.


I won the Tyke house league select tournament several years ago. Does that count too?

Nope not a pro league. Not even remotely close.

 

[notbias]

I don’t understand this logic of “wait and see” before commenting on the trade details. The circumstances surrounding the trade are known right now, they don’t change based on future performance, you made the deal with the realities at the time.​

Funny this doesn't apply to the Kadri trade anymore.

 

[DarkKnight]

Funny this doesn't apply to the Kadri trade anymore.

You should drop “not”.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I hope you apply this same thinking to all trades.

Ottawa wasn't willing to retain 50%. There's no reports of us "upping the offer" or the price rising. That was just the price. We could have walked away if we wanted. We decided to go with the deal over other options.

This is accurate PD , told teams he would not retain more than 25%.

 

[ACC1224]

This is accurate PD , told teams he would not retain more than 25%.

That’s what made the return so underwhelming.

 

[Tarmore]

That’s what made the return so underwhelming.

Because he got as much retention as was available + two (i think) picks ....... And the return is 'underwhelming'

LOL, OK

I'm not thinking so, but I can be persuaded, I have been wrong before. Can you provide comparable trades? To convince me it's a bad trade?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Because he got as much retention as was available + two (i think) picks ....... And the return is 'underwhelming'

LOL, OK

I'm not thinking so, but I can be persuaded, I have been wrong before. Can you provide comparable trades? To convince me it's a bad trade?

I had the same thought - "return underwhelming", um what?

 

[Tarmore]

I won the Tyke house league select tournament several years ago. Does that count too?

As a coach, Gm or Player?










(I'm kidding.... I think)

 

[Mess]

Because he got as much retention as was available + two (i think) picks ....... And the return is 'underwhelming'

LOL, OK

I'm not thinking so, but I can be persuaded, I have been wrong before. Can you provide comparable trades? To convince me it's a bad trade?

You have a perfect example right under your nose with this same Leafs GM.

Patty Marleau had 1 year remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but only $4,250,000 mil in real salary due to front loaded contract and Dubas gave away Leafs 1st round pick to dump that contract.

Link: Patrick Marleau Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Matt Murray has 2 years remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but his contract is heavily back loaded with actual salary in 2022-23 of $ $7,000,000 and 2023-24 of $8,000,000

Link: Matt Murray Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So Leafs got 25% retention X 2 years of $1,562,500 AAV and Salary. Which means Leafs are still on the hook for nearly $12 mil of his $15 mil in real actual salary.

For that they get a Murray at $4,687,500 AVV (after 25% retention) + 3rd in 2023 and 7th in 2024.

To dump $4.25 mil in real salary Dubas paid 1st round pick, and to eat $12 mil (after retention) in real salary Dubas got a 3rd round and 7th round pick. [ = 3 X the amount of actual salary when acquiring a bad contract].

If dumping $4.25 mil = 1st round pick then dumping $12 mil = 3 X 1sts in equivalence terms. So to not get more retention, and at least a 1st in return, shows how brutal this trade was, and also how brutal the Marleau trade was also in comparison to Dubas on deals negotiated and completed. Dubas either dramatically overpaid to dump Marleau, and/or dramatically underwhelming received for Murray and likely BOTH.

 

[Tarmore]

You have a perfect example right under your nose with this same Leafs GM.

Patty Marleau had 1 year remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but only $4,250,000 mil in real salary due to front loaded contract and Dubas gave away Leafs 1st round pick to dump that contract.

Link: Patrick Marleau Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Matt Murray has 2 years remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but his contract is heavily back loaded with actual salary in 2022-23 of $ $7,000,000 and 2023-24 of $8,000,000

Link: Matt Murray Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So Leafs got 25% retention X 2 years of $1,562,500 AAV and Salary. Which means Leafs are still on the hook for nearly $12 mil of his $15 mil in real actual salary.

For that they get a Murray at $4,687,500 AVV (after 25% retention) + 3rd in 2023 and 7th in 2024.

To dump $4.25 mil in real salary Dubas paid 1st round pick, and to eat $12 mil (after retention) in real salary Dubas got a 3rd round and 7th round pick. [ = 3 X the amount of actual salary when acquiring a bad contract].

If dumping $4.25 mil = 1st round pick then dumping $12 mil = 3 X 1sts in equivalence terms. So to not get more retention, and at least a 1st in return, shows how brutal this trade was, and also how brutal the Marleau trade was also in comparison to Dubas on deals negotiated and completed. Dubas either dramically overpaid to dump Marleau, and dramatically under received for Murray.

Um NO.

Marleau is/was a winger not a goalie as comparable as apples to oranges

There was a lot more conditions going on around Marleau's trade that you are leaving out that we both know hugely affected the trade.

Try again

 

[Dekes For Days]

You have a perfect example right under your nose with this same Leafs GM.
Patty Marleau had 1 year remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but only $4,250,000 mil in real salary due to front loaded contract and Dubas gave away Leafs 1st round pick to dump that contract.

The Marleau and Murray situations are not remotely similar. Marleau was 6.25m in completely dead cap. Murray is not dead cap. Murray is a player, and he was retained down to an amount that is relatively close to his market value.

 

[Auston 316]

Mess living up to his moniker as usual…

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Mess it right. In either if the trades Dubas got fleeced. Can’t make this shit up. “forward versus goalie” and “dead cap versus useful” ok then

 

[andora]

What i assume made marleau dead cap was that he was consider useless or cap casualty i guess

We can assume murray was useless to ottawa and very beneficial having 75% of his hit gone due to their other plans

 

[Tarmore]

What i assume made marleau dead cap was that he was consider useless or cap casualty i guess

We can assume murray was useless to ottawa and very beneficial having 75% of his hit gone due to their other plans

What made Marleau trade different is he refused to play for the Leafs and due to a NTC dictated he would only be traded to a couple of teams.

Murry (as far as I know) was willing to play for Ottawa.

 

[andora]

What made Marleau trade different is he refused to play for the Leafs and due to a NTC dictated he would only be traded to a couple of teams.

Murry (as far as I know) was willing to play for Ottawa.

Fair enough on marleau

With all the medical stuff im not sure murray would have been.. but we lukely never know

 

[Tarmore]

With all the medical stuff im not sure murray would have been.. but we lukely never know

True

 

[ACC1224]

Mess it right. In either if the trades Dubas got fleeced. Can’t make this shit up. “forward versus goalie” and “dead cap versus useful” ok then

While the trades don't relate well to each other, I'm sure most will agree that Dubas didn't do very well in either of them.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Mess it right. In either if the trades Dubas got fleeced. Can’t make this shit up. “forward versus goalie” and “dead cap versus useful” ok then

I'm not sure a trade where you literally gave up nothing is getting fleeced. It's basically like signing him as a free agent that had 2 draft picks attached to it.

 

[Recipe Unlimited]

You have a perfect example right under your nose with this same Leafs GM.

Patty Marleau had 1 year remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but only $4,250,000 mil in real salary due to front loaded contract and Dubas gave away Leafs 1st round pick to dump that contract.

Link: Patrick Marleau Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Matt Murray has 2 years remaining on his contract with a $6,250,000 AAV but his contract is heavily back loaded with actual salary in 2022-23 of $ $7,000,000 and 2023-24 of $8,000,000

Link: Matt Murray Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

So Leafs got 25% retention X 2 years of $1,562,500 AAV and Salary. Which means Leafs are still on the hook for nearly $12 mil of his $15 mil in real actual salary.

For that they get a Murray at $4,687,500 AVV (after 25% retention) + 3rd in 2023 and 7th in 2024.

To dump $4.25 mil in real salary Dubas paid 1st round pick, and to eat $12 mil (after retention) in real salary Dubas got a 3rd round and 7th round pick. [ = 3 X the amount of actual salary when acquiring a bad contract].

If dumping $4.25 mil = 1st round pick then dumping $12 mil = 3 X 1sts in equivalence terms. So to not get more retention, and at least a 1st in return, shows how brutal this trade was, and also how brutal the Marleau trade was also in comparison to Dubas on deals negotiated and completed. Dubas either dramatically overpaid to dump Marleau, and/or dramatically underwhelming received for Murray and likely BOTH.

AAV is definitely more important than salary in terms of trade value (salary helps a little bit, but not that much)

Marleau had a dead cap hit of 6.25mil x 1 year vs Murray's 4.7m x 2 years (after retention). So that brings your calculation to 6.25mil (Marleau) vs 9.4mil (Murray).

But you're also forgetting that Marleau is dead cap, while Murray actually fills a roster spot for the Leafs, which has value. Worst case scenario, he plays really poorly, and then his value is quite low (~1.5 mil per year). Best case scenario he plays like a starter (Conservatively around his current salary - 4.5mil).

So worst case scenario you are comparing 6.25mil (Marleau) vs 6.4mil (Murray)
Best case scenario you are comparing 6.25mil (Marleau) vs 0.4mil (Murray)

If you think that it is a guarantee that Murray will be terrible this year then I see your point, but if you think there is a realistic chance (not a guarantee, but realistic), then the deal doesn't look nearly as bad.

Also the counterpoint to this is that Dubas was able to unload Mrazek for the price of moving from pick 25 to pick 38 (equivalent to a late second round pick or early 3rd round pick value).

So Dubas traded 7.6mil of cap hit and 8.6mil of salary for a late second round pick???? Wow what a good negotiation. (But it doesn't actually work this way)