Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[saltming]

No he won't. It will transition to a reckless move where we were lucky it worked out. It's like having a 5 on 1 and the puck carrier decides to take the puck straight to the 1 defender and deke through his legs, ends up pulling it off and scores. It worked but it was reckless and not smart at all. There was no need to make this trade yet and not going to waste breath diving into why again.

There is way too much data saying Murray was/is bouncing back. Dubas is the GM that saw it and took it, so if it does workout it's like the defenseman read the play perfectly, anticipated the play and stopped it.
If it doesn't work out, because of the metrics on Murray improving, it looks like he gambled and lost.
There was no recklessness in this.
Also, when evaluating all this you should take into account that he added a safety net of samsonov, another gamble based on metrics and player trending.
It was calculated. Was it the right calculation? Time will tell.
Dubas is the Don of deficiency, its what he looks for and thrives on, so to say he recklessly made this decision goes against his mo. In his entire tenure he has not made a knee Jerk decision.

 

[Golden_Jet]

There is way too much data saying Murray was/is bouncing back. Dubas is the GM that saw it and took it, so if it does workout it's like the defenseman read the play perfectly, anticipated the play and stopped it.
If it doesn't work out, because of the metrics on Murray improving, it looks like he gambled and lost.
There was no recklessness in this.
Also, when evaluating all this you should take into account that he added a safety net of samsonov, another gamble based on metrics and player trending.
It was calculated. Was it the right calculation? Time will tell.
Dubas is the Don of deficiency, its what he looks for and thrives on, so to say he recklessly made this decision goes against his mo. In his entire tenure he has not made a knee Jerk decision.

Probably wasn’t reckless, he played for the Soo, so was calculated.
Maybe they should of kept Lehner.

 

[Zybalto]

Mrazek is more of a flow state goalie who gets into a groove, and that mojo factor kicks in allowing him to play at a high level when he’s on his game. When it’s off, he falls back on pure athleticism and his instinct turns to guessing. Kind of a 90s reflex goalie in that respect.

Too bad he wasnt able to put it together. Those keepers are certainly exciting to watch when they are on.

 

[stealth1]

Its a stat that tries to take into account all the variables including the D in front of the goalie.

Considering Murray got the least defensive support of almost any goalie in the league last season, its not surprising to see him with a positive number. He was an overall positive player for the Sens despite his record. Doesnt mean he was worth his cap hit of course.

Lets just hope playing for a far better defensive system will make a difference for him as long as he stays healthy.

His team mate had even better GSAx. For that matter Comrie, Keumper, Husso and Campbell all better ones.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Anyone with half brain knows if there are 2 equal suitors for sens to choose from they will skip the Leafs. So the other suitor, if they even exist and not just PR move by Leafs after all the backlash, was not a threat at the time. Dubas put himself as the best option for sens straight away. Dubas played checkers instead of chess.

It's a gamble goalie so it's better to play chess and lose than to play checkers and win. This isnt a Tavares sweepstakes it's a goalie whose team doesn't want him and that only 1-2 other organizations stepped up for because the goalie was for free asset wise.

Perhaps if you have half a brain you might think that way. It is expected that one would lose some cognitive abilities with only half a brain. In fact, I am glad you are alive and hopefully we'll. Anyway, Leafs PR wouldn't make up a second team. They don't have to justify their moves and they didn't. The bottom line is as Dubas said, they wanted to make the trade. They are confident it will work out. You don't have to like it. While chess is more strategic than checkers, Checkers is aggressively tactical. So if he were playing a different game ( I doubt that he is) he chose a good one.

 

[Its not your fault]

No he won't. It will transition to a reckless move where we were lucky it worked out. It's like having a 5 on 1 and the puck carrier decides to take the puck straight to the 1 defender and deke through his legs, ends up pulling it off and scores. It worked but it was reckless and not smart at all. There was no need to make this trade yet and not going to waste breath diving into why again.

"yet" as in when it happen, maybe today you do it based on how things went since, but we'll never know now what those things are or would have been

Not enough Leafs seize the moment as it is let's not have them shy away from their confidence. There is risk and there is also smart risk. Some players know when the other team is on tired legs. They also expect the pass. With 5 players you should also be good enough to retrieve the puck. Nice NHL move always the same play. Which is also a Leaf knock.

 

[Sypher04]

His team mate had even better GSAx. For that matter Comrie, Keumper, Husso and Campbell all better ones.

Comrie, Kuemper and Husso yes. Campbell no.

 

[mydnyte]

lol what?

this is the intelligent, and well through out reply i'd expect from the trade board

 

[mydnyte]

If Murray gives up above average goaltending for the season and goes god mode for the playoffs, Dubas will look like he was playing go while others were playing chess


Why? He suited samsonov as well

Because he went all in on Murray as the #1 over Campbell, and Kuemper (for example) he has a big contract, and if he fails, we'll likely need to add a bigger asset to unload his salary than we got from Ottawa, and leaves a Cup contender without a #1 G.
it may be a washed out season if Murray fails.
...unless that's the plan, to have no goalie, miss the playoffs, then win the draft lotto

 

[deprw]

Because he went all in on Murray as the #1 over Campbell, and Kuemper (for example) he has a big contract, and if he fails, we'll likely need to add a bigger asset to unload his salary than we got from Ottawa, and leaves a Cup contender without a #1 G.
it may be a washed out season if Murray fails.
...unless that's the plan, to have no goalie, miss the playoffs, then win the draft lotto

Well if he signed Campbell or Kuemper and they fail, how we evaluate Dubas? I can't see trading Murray is more all-in than signing more expensive Campbell. It is lotto in both cases and Murray is way smaller risk, if Campbell fails only success he ever had was one and half season here. Oilers can wrap him up with two first to get rid of him. One season of Murray can be buried somewhere, if you get rid of four years of Campbell you have to put him front of the net.

 

[saltming]

Because he went all in on Murray as the #1 over Campbell, and Kuemper (for example) he has a big contract, and if he fails, we'll likely need to add a bigger asset to unload his salary than we got from Ottawa, and leaves a Cup contender without a #1 G.
it may be a washed out season if Murray fails.
...unless that's the plan, to have no goalie, miss the playoffs, then win the draft lotto

Campbell and Kuemper are just as big a risk and with longer terms and higher cap hits. With either of those guys it still could be a washed out season. That's hockey.
According to dubas there is no clear cut #1. They will fight for the net.

 

[mydnyte]

Campbell and Kuemper are just as big a risk and with longer terms and higher cap hits. With either of those guys it still could be a washed out season. That's hockey.
According to dubas there is no clear cut #1. They will fight for the net.

i didnt like any of the UFA goalies... I'd have tried to get Fleury
Murray though, has the biggest risk by far though, as his stats have fallen off a cliff, save for that few games last season

 

[Zybalto]

i didnt like any of the UFA goalies... I'd have tried to get Fleury
Murray though, has the biggest risk by far though, as his stats have fallen off a cliff, save for that few games last season

Andersen fell off an even bigger cliff his last 2 years and just needed to get healthy.

Because he went all in on Murray as the #1 over Campbell, and Kuemper (for example) he has a big contract, and if he fails, we'll likely need to add a bigger asset to unload his salary than we got from Ottawa, and leaves a Cup contender without a #1 G.
it may be a washed out season if Murray fails.
...unless that's the plan, to have no goalie, miss the playoffs, then win the draft lotto

It would probably take a lot for the Leafs to miss the playoffs due to goaltending.

From Dec. 1st to the end of last season:

4th best record in the NHL (.695)
27th ranked team save% (31st 5v5)
XGA (team D): 3rd best in the NHL

Can it get much worse?

 

[mydnyte]

Andersen fell off an even bigger cliff his last 2 years and just needed to get healthy.

It would probably take a lot for the Leafs to miss the playoffs due to goaltending.

From Dec. 1st to the end of last season:

4th best record in the NHL (.695)
27th ranked team save% (31st 5v5)
XGA (team D): 3rd best in the NHL

Can it get much worse?

worse is easy ...better takes work

 

[justashadowof]

Andersen fell off an even bigger cliff his last 2 years and just needed to get healthy.

It would probably take a lot for the Leafs to miss the playoffs due to goaltending.

From Dec. 1st to the end of last season:

4th best record in the NHL (.695)
27th ranked team save% (31st 5v5)
XGA (team D): 3rd best in the NHL

Can it get much worse?

Yes it can. Imagine instead of Campbell our goalies were Mrazek and Kallgren for the balance of last season into the playoffs.

Let's remember that it wasn't only Campbell who nosedived in December and beyond. That goaltending decline was across the board with all goalies. We could consider the thought experiment that perhaps there was a larger team contribution to Campbell's midseason decline than any of us are recognizing or admitting.

Anyways fingers crossed for Murray and Samsonov. We can't say Dubas didn't try something major with the goaltending this summer.

 

[Mess]

Andersen fell off an even bigger cliff his last 2 years and just needed to get healthy.

It would probably take a lot for the Leafs to miss the playoffs due to goaltending.

From Dec. 1st to the end of last season:

4th best record in the NHL (.695)
27th ranked team save% (31st 5v5)
XGA (team D): 3rd best in the NHL

Can it get much worse?

When Matt Murray goes head to head vs Vasilevskiy in the playoffs how is that sv% going to hold up and win the head 1-1 battle?

"Good teams are built from the Goalie out" and Vas is often the difference maker particularly in series deciding games,

Your stats show Leafs goalies are the weakest link and Leafs need to outscore their own goaltending to produce their team record. You're only as strong as your weakest link.

This is a flawed strategy to think to works in the playoffs, to win consistently, because when goal scoring goes down as checking and shot blocking and defense goes up, you no longer can always outscore your own goalie.

What the Leafs should be looking for is a goalie with a high "Goals saved above expected" to fit with their team build style, not ones with low sv% at 5v5. It the saves above the expected that can steal and game and series particularly in series deciding games.

 

[Zybalto]

Yes it can. Imagine instead of Campbell our goalies were Mrazek and Kallgren for the balance of last season into the playoffs.

Let's remember that it wasn't only Campbell who nosedived in December and beyond. That goaltending decline was across the board with all goalies. We could consider the thought experiment that perhaps there was a larger team contribution to Campbell's midseason decline than any of us are recognizing or admitting.

Anyways fingers crossed for Murray and Samsonov. We can't say Dubas didn't try something major with the goaltending this summer.

Id be onboard with the thought experiment if we wernt watching the goalies giving up brutal softies game in and out. The stats are horrific and perfectly match the eye test too. The teams defensive stats remained remarkably stable all year.

In Campbells defense, it came out that he was playing hurt for the worst part of his season but even then, the micro stats have him greatly benefitting from a defensive system that shielded him from a ton of in close chances compared with other keepers and its a good thing too as he was worse than most at making a big save. Once he started letting in medium range stuff, he was just useless.

Yea, Lets see what we have in the new guys.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

i didnt like any of the UFA goalies... I'd have tried to get Fleury
Murray though, has the biggest risk by far though, as his stats have fallen off a cliff, save for that few games last season

Fleury wasn't available unless you wanted to trade an asset for him.

 

[Zybalto]

When Matt Murray goes head to head vs Vasilevskiy in the playoffs how is that sv% going to hold up and win the head 1-1 battle?

"Good teams are built from the Goalie out" and Vas is often the difference maker particularly in series deciding games,

Your stats show Leafs goalies are the weakest link and Leafs need to outscore their own goaltending to produce their team record. You're only as strong as your weakest link.

This is a flawed strategy to think to works in the playoffs, to win consistently, because when goal scoring goes down as checking and shot blocking and defense goes up, you no longer can always outscore your own goalie.

What the Leafs should be looking for is a goalie with a high "Goals saved above expected" to fit with their team build style, not ones with low sv% at 5v5. It the saves above the expected that can steal and game and series particularly in series deciding games.

Considering Murray had a positive number there last year, despite his woes, lets see what he can do.

Andersen had close to the worst numbers of any starter in the league before going to the Canes. Even got outplayed by Hutch. It was just as big (maybe bigger) a gamble as this is. If Murray can stay healthy (hopefully all year), he should be a solid upgrade.

 

[Mess]

Here are the key stats for all you analytics guru types.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NHL Goaltending Leaders - Goals Saved above Expected top 12 in 2021-22 [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Save % on[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[TD]Unblocked[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[TD]Shots[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[TD]0.964[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[TD]0.956[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[TD]0.948[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[TD]0.950[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[TD]0.949[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[TD]0.960[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Notice final 4 in the East NYR vs Carolina and TB vs Florida who are all the top 4 best in Goals saved above expected. ECF = #1 NYR vs #2 TB because of Shesterkin vs Vasilevskiy.

Stanley Cup Final series .. #2 Vasilevskiy vs #5 Darcy Kuemper.

Note: Washington recognized their flaw and walked away from Samsonov their playoff goalie # 107 Goals Saved above Expected and walked away and went all in on Darcy Kuemper

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.1​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

With Kuemper now in Washington and Husso now in Detroit the East Conference now has 7 of the top 12 goalies in Goals Saved above expected...

Where are the Leafs and what are they thinking?

 

[andora]

When Matt Murray goes head to head vs Vasilevskiy in the playoffs how is that sv% going to hold up and win the head 1-1 battle?

"Good teams are built from the Goalie out" and Vas is often the difference maker particularly in series deciding games,

Your stats show Leafs goalies are the weakest link and Leafs need to outscore their own goaltending to produce their team record. You're only as strong as your weakest link.

This is a flawed strategy to think to works in the playoffs, to win consistently, because when goal scoring goes down as checking and shot blocking and defense goes up, you no longer can always outscore your own goalie.

What the Leafs should be looking for is a goalie with a high "Goals saved above expected" to fit with their team build style, not ones with low sv% at 5v5. It the saves above the expected that can steal and game and series particularly in series deciding games.

Kind of

When you are in a position you are as the leafs getting a goaltender that fits your style is key

Leafs had great defensive stats last year but their goaltending failed them in high danger areas. The defensive stats were still good for high danger.. the saves just werent there

Murray is strong in this part of the ice. Couple that with the leafs strong defence and in theory you have a net positive. Now with the leafs playing better defence in medium and low danger areas than ottawa does.. murrays weaker areas are supported by the better players and system in front of him

Everything numbers wise points to murray succeeding barring injury

It just matches up

Here are the key stats for all you analytics guru types.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NHL Goaltending Leaders - Goals Saved above Expected top 12 in 2021-22 [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Save % on[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[TD]Unblocked[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[TD]Shots[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[TD]0.964[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[TD]0.956[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[TD]0.948[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[TD]0.950[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[TD]0.949[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[TD]0.960[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Notice final 4 in the East NYR vs Carolina and TB vs Florida who are all the top 4 best in Goals saved above expected. ECF = #1 NYR vs #2 TB because of Shesterkin vs Vasilevskiy.

Stanley Cup Final series .. #2 Vasilevskiy vs #5 Darcy Kuemper.

Note: Washington recognized their flaw and walked away from Samsonov their playoff goalie # 107 Goals Saved above Expected and walked away and went all in on Darcy Kuemper

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.1​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

With Kuemper now in Washington and Husso now in Detroit the East Conference now has 7 of the top 12 goalies in Goals Saved above expected...

Where are the Leafs and what are they thinking?

How do the previous 4 seasons line up

Is it a trend or not

 

[Zybalto]

Here are the key stats for all you analytics guru types.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]NHL Goaltending Leaders - Goals Saved above Expected top 12 in 2021-22 [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Games[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Goals Saved[/TD]
[TD]Save % on[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rank[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Name[/TD]
[TD]Played[/TD]
[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Above[/TD]
[TD]Above Expected[/TD]
[TD]Unblocked[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]Against[/TD]
[TD]Expected[/TD]
[TD]Per 60[/TD]
[TD]Shots[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Rangers[/TD]
[TD]Igor Shesterkin[/TD]

[TD]

53​

[/TD]

[TD]

106​

[/TD]

[TD]140.10[/TD]
[TD]34.10[/TD]
[TD]0.666[/TD]
[TD]0.964[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

2​

[/TD]

[TD]Tampa Bay Lightning[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilevskiy[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

156​

[/TD]

[TD]184.41[/TD]
[TD]28.40[/TD]
[TD]0.453[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

3​

[/TD]

[TD]Carolina Hurricanes[/TD]
[TD]Frederik Andersen[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

111​

[/TD]

[TD]138.82[/TD]
[TD]27.80[/TD]
[TD]0.543[/TD]
[TD]0.956[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

4​

[/TD]

[TD]Florida Panthers[/TD]
[TD]Sergei Bobrovsky[/TD]

[TD]

54​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]160.39[/TD]
[TD]23.40[/TD]
[TD]0.456[/TD]
[TD]0.948[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

5​

[/TD]

[TD]Colorado Avalanche[/TD]
[TD]Darcy Kuemper[/TD]

[TD]

57​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]158.97[/TD]
[TD]21.00[/TD]
[TD]0.387[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

6​

[/TD]

[TD]Nashville Predators[/TD]
[TD]Juuse Saros[/TD]

[TD]

67​

[/TD]

[TD]

173​

[/TD]

[TD]193.69[/TD]
[TD]20.70[/TD]
[TD]0.316[/TD]
[TD]0.954[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]Los Angeles Kings[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Quick[/TD]

[TD]

46​

[/TD]

[TD]

116​

[/TD]

[TD]133.80[/TD]
[TD]17.80[/TD]
[TD]0.398[/TD]
[TD]0.950[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]Winnipeg Jets[/TD]
[TD]Connor Hellebuyck[/TD]

[TD]

66​

[/TD]

[TD]

193​

[/TD]

[TD]209.65[/TD]
[TD]16.70[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[TD]0.949[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]St. Louis Blues[/TD]
[TD]Ville Husso[/TD]

[TD]

40​

[/TD]

[TD]

100​

[/TD]

[TD]113.54[/TD]
[TD]13.50[/TD]
[TD]0.346[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]New York Islanders[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Sorokin[/TD]

[TD]

52​

[/TD]

[TD]

123​

[/TD]

[TD]135.77[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[TD]0.960[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]Pittsburgh Penguins[/TD]
[TD]Tristan Jarry[/TD]

[TD]

58​

[/TD]

[TD]

138​

[/TD]

[TD]150.76[/TD]
[TD]12.80[/TD]
[TD]0.225[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]Calgary Flames[/TD]
[TD]Jacob Markstrom[/TD]

[TD]

63​

[/TD]

[TD]

137​

[/TD]

[TD]147.84[/TD]
[TD]10.80[/TD]
[TD]0.175[/TD]
[TD]0.955[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Notice final 4 in the East NYR vs Carolina and TB vs Florida who are all the top 4 best in Goals saved above expected. ECF = #1 NYR vs #2 TB because of Shesterkin vs Vasilevskiy.

Stanley Cup Final series .. #2 Vasilevskiy vs #5 Darcy Kuemper.

Note: Washington recognized their flaw and walked away from Samsonov their playoff goalie # 107 Goals Saved above Expected and walked away and went all in on Darcy Kuemper

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]

107​

[/TD]

[TD]Washington Capitals[/TD]
[TD]Ilya Samsonov[/TD]

[TD]

44​

[/TD]

[TD]

119​

[/TD]

[TD]106.94[/TD]

[TD]

-12.1​

[/TD]

[TD]

-0.307​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

With Kuemper now in Washington and Husso now in Detroit the East Conference now has 7 of the top 12 goalies in Goals Saved above expected...

Where are the Leafs and what are they thinking?

Just want to add that Samsonov was better than Keumper in the playoffs last year and Murray has some of the best playoff numbers of any goalie the last decade.

Why not give them a chance?

 

[Mess]

Considering Murray had a positive number there last year, despite his woes, lets see what he can do.

Andersen had close to the worst numbers of any starter in the league before going to the Canes. Even got outplayed by Hutch. It was just as big (maybe bigger) a gamble as this is. If Murray can stay healthy (hopefully all year), he should be a solid upgrade.

When you grade on the Bell curve of Leafs NEW goalies vs the field of the East now that Kuemper is in Washington and lets look at Goals above expected.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Div: TB, Florida, Boston, Detroit (now Husso), Ottawa >>> Toronto new Tandem
Metro Div : NYR, Carolina, Washington (now Kuemper), Pittsburgh, NYI, & Columbus >>> Toronto new Tandem

Leafs have he weakest "goals above expected" ranking based on last years stats and only better >>>> than Montreal (Price hurt all year), Buffalo, Philly and NJ all the bottom non playoff teams.

GOALS ABOVE EXPECTED: 2021-22

			Games	Goals	Expected	Goals Saved
Rank	Team	Name	Played	Against	Goals	Above
					Against	Expected
1​	New York Rangers	Igor Shesterkin	53​	106​	140.10	34.10
2​	Tampa Bay Lightning	Andrei Vasilevskiy	63​	156​	184.41	28.40
3​	Carolina Hurricanes	Frederik Andersen	52​	111​	138.82	27.80
4​	Florida Panthers	Sergei Bobrovsky	54​	137​	160.39	23.40
5​	Colorado Avalanche	Darcy Kuemper	57​	138​	158.97	21.00
6​	Nashville Predators	Juuse Saros	67​	173​	193.69	20.70
7​	Los Angeles Kings	Jonathan Quick	46​	116​	133.80	17.80
8​	Winnipeg Jets	Connor Hellebuyck	66​	193​	209.65	16.70
9​	St. Louis Blues	Ville Husso	40​	100​	113.54	13.50
10​	New York Islanders	Ilya Sorokin	52​	123​	135.77	12.80
11​	Pittsburgh Penguins	Tristan Jarry	58​	138​	150.76	12.80
12​	Calgary Flames	Jacob Markstrom	63​	137​	147.84	10.80
13​	Vancouver Canucks	Thatcher Demko	64​	168​	178.50	10.50
14​	Winnipeg Jets	Eric Comrie	19​	44​	54.33	10.30
15​	Vancouver Canucks	Spencer Martin	6​	11​	19.99	9.00
16​	Ottawa Senators	Anton Forsberg	46​	121​	129.46	8.50
17​	Edmonton Oilers	Mike Smith	28​	74​	81.39	7.40
18​	Vegas Golden Knights	Robin Lehner	44​	120​	126.07	6.10
19​	Boston Bruins	Linus Ullmark	41​	95​	100.69	5.70
20​	Philadelphia Flyers	Felix Sandstrom	5​	16​	21.24	5.20
21​	San Jose Sharks	Kaapo Kahkonen	36​	93​	98.19	5.20
22​	St. Louis Blues	Charlie Lindgren	5​	5​	9.52	4.50
23​	Boston Bruins	Jeremy Swayman	41​	96​	100.15	4.20
24​	Columbus Blue Jackets	Elvis Merzlikins	59​	178​	182.03	4.00
25​	Florida Panthers	Spencer Knight	32​	81​	84.99	4.00
26​	Pittsburgh Penguins	Louis Domingue	2​	4​	7.85	3.80
27​	Carolina Hurricanes	Antti Raanta	28​	62​	65.69	3.70
28​	Ottawa Senators	Matt Murray	20​	60​	63.16	3.20
107​	Washington Capitals	Ilya Samsonov	44​	119​	106.94	-12.1​

 

[Stephen]

Yes it can. Imagine instead of Campbell our goalies were Mrazek and Kallgren for the balance of last season into the playoffs.

Let's remember that it wasn't only Campbell who nosedived in December and beyond. That goaltending decline was across the board with all goalies. We could consider the thought experiment that perhaps there was a larger team contribution to Campbell's midseason decline than any of us are recognizing or admitting.

Anyways fingers crossed for Murray and Samsonov. We can't say Dubas didn't try something major with the goaltending this summer.

Campbell’s decline also coincided with the COVID pause and then a rib injury so maybe there were unrepeatable factors for his and the team’s decline in defensive play mid season. That said. Any combination of Campbell, Murray and Samsonov carry unique risks and upsides over different time horizons - all well covered. So we’ll just have to hope for the best here since the die has been cast.

 

[Mess]

Just want to add that Samsonov was better than Keumper in the playoffs last year and Murray has some of the best playoff numbers of any goalie the last decade.

Why not give them a chance?

Hope and giving them the chance is the only option Leaf Nation has, particularly hoping that Murray can stay healthy and regain his form of 5-6 years ago when on Pens Cup teams. Murray was already in decline when moved out of Pittsburgh, as they went with the younger and better Tristan Jarry.

Leafs are going to have to live or die with their goaltending and hope for big bounce back season from one or both of their new goalies.

Leafs enter this season with their biggest ??? and weakest link in net, where it is the most vital position to Cup success.

Based on the stats, injury history and past recent performance and not just hope the deck is stacked against the Leafs entering this next season.

What excites me Matt Murray past Cup history & what concerns me in his injury history including multiple and serious concussions including coming off a 4 month hiatus.