Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[4thline]

It's nice that we were paid a 3rd and a 7th, but these aren't great assets. The 7th is in 2024 and it will probably cost more than a 3rd to unload Murray this offseason if it doesn't work out.

If you want to go risky I'm on board, but we went expensive and risky with Murray. If we want to go for a duo and ride whoever is hot, I think we would've been better off with Samsonov and any number of middling goalies. I really hope I'm wrong but it's a little difficult to picture Murray being both healthy and above average. I think we could've achieved that result by spending far less than 4.7M

The way I see it is that by the time we get substantially cheaper, the risk gets that much higher and we're out of "middling" and into sub-mediocre.

Husso/Georgiev/Vanicek all have the same downside, none with the demonstrated upside, all with higher acquisition cost.

There's an argument to be made for going Lindgren/Comrie/Lankinen and banking on Samsonov alone / having to spend assets and cap later, but that's really just punting.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

The way I see it is that by the time we get substantially cheaper, the risk gets that much higher and we're out of "middling" and into sub-mediocre.

Husso/Georgiev/Vanicek all have the same downside, none with the demonstrated upside, all with higher acquisition cost.

There's an argument to be made for going Lindgren/Comrie/Lankinen and banking on Samsonov alone / having to spend assets and cap later, but that's really just punting.

Acquisition cost is certainly a positive of this move. Looking at Husso for example:
-3rd round pick just for his negotiating rights was a rough look
-He's not as young as I thought at 27 years old, Murray is 28
-Husso is making $4.75Mx3, longer term than Murray on very comparable AVV
-Husso has only played 7 playoff games and his sv was not good
-Murray played 51 playoff games and has an electric 921 sv %

 

[4thline]

Acquisition cost is certainly a positive of this move. Looking at Husso for example:
-3rd round pick just for his negotiating rights was a rough look
-He's not as young as I thought at 27 years old, Murray is 28
-Husso is making $4.75Mx3, longer term than Murray on very comparable AVV
-Husso has only played 7 playoff games and his sv was not good
-Murray played 51 playoff games and has an electric 921 sv %

Murray was the most defensible move of those 4 goalies. The acquisition delta is massive, the contract differences are small to non-existent, and he's literally the only one with any meaningful playoff success or a full season with even plus level tandem starter 1A/B results.

We were one bad game away from getting paid to take a two time cup winner coming off a .915 behind farking Ottawa.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I think it should be other way around. I don't understand why Dubas haters aren't ecstatic, because of Murray. If he fails and Samsonov can't save it -> Dubas probably walks and you ditch Murray: clean plate.

If Dubas signs Kuemper or Campbell and either of them fails -> immovable contract left and Dubas walks. Almost same with Husso who you paid assets for.

Campbell is killing blow for any cup hopes if he fails, it is contract that costs a ton to move. They should pray for him in Edmonton.

Also if Hellebyuck is available next summer we can make a move, if we sign Campbell we can't.

Also Dubas haters: this team can't make it, fire Dubas and Shanahan. If you don't believe that we can't make it anyway. Why care about this at all? Murray can't make it any worse, can he? Plate is cleaner once this team fails and Dubas is gone...

ps. I don't see you as Dubas hater and I don't see myself operating from Dubas HQ.

What makes you think Dubas gets fired it he fails again?

 

[Ianturnedbull]

"Goalies are Voodoo", therefore Murray will win the Vezina, Jennings, Lady Bing, Lindsey, and Hart next season.

But...Toronto will lose in the 1st round of the playoffs.

 

[deprw]

What makes you think Dubas gets fired it he fails again?

If he fails as badly his haters predict him to fail I think he is gone. Though if we look up the league there are GMs like Cheveldayoff still on the helm, so you never know. I think it takes three to five years to get your philosophy trough organization and Dubas is there at the moment, if this team tanks because of goaltending, it will look pretty bad on him.

Expectations should be pretty high right now, since we are one of the contenders in the league. There isn't team on our division that is clearly better on paper than us, which was the case or at least debatable last decade. Carolina is in the same conference, but they don't have any X factor over us, which we have over them. Slavin is better than Rielly, but that's it and they have same goalie conundrum until Andersen proves himself in the playoffs.

Avalanche is off course, still one to beat and they have Makar, which is clear X factor over us. In overall we can match MacKinnon, Rantanen etc.

So if we tank, it's hard to see no changes coming, but we'll see. I think the overall mood after last year was different and it can be good thing (frustrated enough to win) or we might have lost our confidence, which should result regime change.

 

[BodaciousBeefBazooka]

I dont know about this guy.....

 

[justashadowof]

Dorion apparently had another team interested in Murray which made Dubas want to pull the trigger as well. We'll never know if that was a bluff or not. Sens were prepared to buy him out, and it may be wishful thinking, but I would've left them to figure that out on their own if 50% wasn't on the table.

I don't think they were if there was any possibility of trading him away. Buying out Murray would have cost Ottawa 2/3rd's of the $15M he was owed. The trade with the Leafs amounted to saving Ottawa $6.25M ($10M - $15M/4) in real money from the cost of a buyout for a 3rd and a 7th round pick.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Dorion apparently had another team interested in Murray which made Dubas want to pull the trigger as well. We'll never know if that was a bluff or not. Sens were prepared to buy him out, and it may be wishful thinking, but I would've left them to figure that out on their own if 50% wasn't on the table.

Anyone with half brain knows if there are 2 equal suitors for sens to choose from they will skip the Leafs. So the other suitor, if they even exist and not just PR move by Leafs after all the backlash, was not a threat at the time. Dubas put himself as the best option for sens straight away. Dubas played checkers instead of chess.

It's a gamble goalie so it's better to play chess and lose than to play checkers and win. This isnt a Tavares sweepstakes it's a goalie whose team doesn't want him and that only 1-2 other organizations stepped up for because the goalie was for free asset wise.

 

[Extra Texture]

Here's hoping! Maybe if we make it to game 7 this year the players will look at Murray who has a great record in elimination games and it gives us a slight margin of confidence we need. It's a lot of pressure and we'll all be pulling for him.

I truly hope so. I know the injuries killed him in Ottawa, but i think the combination of 1. big contract 2. joining a putrid team was a toxic combination. Once his confidence was shot there, it wasnt coming back, and having to work his way back from the IR multiple times made it worse. I suppose it didnt help that, with Melnyk in charge, it seemed like the Sens were never going to actually get out of their rut.

What I know is that by joining the leafs, he is going to a team that expects to win, in a market where there is pressure to win, and entering a locker room with established leaders and "go to" guys who feel the urgency to perform now. That's the exact situation he was coming into in 2016, and he turned a notorious weakness for the Pens in net (one that had crippled them in playoffs past) into a strength. I'm not saying lightning will strike twice, but I if he is motivated to revive his career career, he has is now in a similar situation to how it started.

 

[mydnyte]

There are only 2 goalies under 30 who have over 20 wins in the last 6 years. One is Vasilevskiy.

??? over 20 wins? 20 wins is nothing, last season there was 17 goalies under 30 who won 20 or more?
heck, 6 had over 30 wins last year
i just dont understand your post??

 

[mydnyte]

i was hoping we would try to deal for one of the washington goalies, so, i was pissed when they traded Vanecek for middling picks and we werent on it, then we got Samsonov for free, and cheaper than what his QO would have been, so, that was a huge steal.
Murray i wanted no part of though, but, i hope i'm proven wrong.
Dubas lives or gets fired based on Murray's performance. ...even if Samsomov wins the vezina, but Murray flops, he's likely gone.

 

[Sypher04]

I don’t know how people feel about goals saved above expected as a stat, but I found this interesting:

21/22 season
Murray: 3.2
Hutchinson: -1.9
Campbell: -2.3
Kallgren: -5.2
Mrazek: -11.6

 

[ACC1224]

I don’t know how people feel about goals saved above expected as a stat, but I found this interesting:

21/22 season
Murray: 3.2
Hutchinson: -1.9
Campbell: -2.3
Kallgren: -5.2
Mrazek: -11.6

What does it mean?

 

[A1LeafNation]

??? over 20 wins? 20 wins is nothing, last season there was 17 goalies under 30 who won 20 or more?
heck, 6 had over 30 wins last year
i just dont understand your post??

....in the playoffs.

 

[Zybalto]

What does it mean?

Its a stat that tries to take into account all the variables including the D in front of the goalie.

Considering Murray got the least defensive support of almost any goalie in the league last season, its not surprising to see him with a positive number. He was an overall positive player for the Sens despite his record. Doesnt mean he was worth his cap hit of course.

Lets just hope playing for a far better defensive system will make a difference for him as long as he stays healthy.

 

[X66]

What does it mean?

It means that the goalies under Murray allowed a lot more stinkers, or goals that shouldn't have gone in, and that can be pretty evident when looking back to Campbell and Mrazek last year.

This is the chart that does it for me, but Murray was legit better than Campbell last year, BUT his injury history is a major concern, don't care what anyone says about that lol. I have to see Murray healthy.

Campbell last year got eaten alive up close

Murray was much better in those areas

 

[zeke]

Gsax loved mrazek before this year too tho.

 

[Auston 316]

i was hoping we would try to deal for one of the washington goalies, so, i was pissed when they traded Vanecek for middling picks and we werent on it, then we got Samsonov for free, and cheaper than what his QO would have been, so, that was a huge steal.
Murray i wanted no part of though, but, i hope i'm proven wrong.
Dubas lives or gets fired based on Murray's performance. ...even if Samsomov wins the vezina, but Murray flops, he's likely gone.

lol what?

 

[ACC1224]

Its a stat that tries to take into account all the variables including the D in front of the goalie.

Considering Murray got the least defensive support of almost any goalie in the league last season, its not surprising to see him with a positive number. He was an overall positive player for the Sens despite his record. Doesnt mean he was worth his cap hit of course.

Lets just hope playing for a far better defensive system will make a difference for him as long as he stays healthy.

Thank you, nice to read some positive news.
I didn't notice the minus at first and thought Murray was coming in after Hutch and Campbell.

 

[Zybalto]

Gsax loved mrazek before this year too tho.

Hard to say with Mrazek. Took a major injury in his first game and could never get on track as he kept getting hurt. Looked like he was almost trying too hard when he was healthy. No one saw him flubbing things (like that missed blocker to the corner against Arizona) so badly so often in earlier years.

 

[Zybalto]

It means that the goalies under Murray allowed a lot more stinkers, or goals that shouldn't have gone in, and that can be pretty evident when looking back to Campbell and Mrazek last year.

This is the chart that does it for me, but Murray was legit better than Campbell last year, BUT his injury history is a major concern, don't care what anyone says about that lol. I have to see Murray healthy.

Campbell last year got eaten alive up close

View attachment 572672

Murray was much better in those areas

View attachment 572673

Now think about how much more often Murray had to deal with prime shots/scoring chances than Campbell.

Campbell would have gotten eaten alive in Ottawa last year.

 

[saltming]

Anyone with half brain knows if there are 2 equal suitors for sens to choose from they will skip the Leafs. So the other suitor, if they even exist and not just PR move by Leafs after all the backlash, was not a threat at the time. Dubas put himself as the best option for sens straight away. Dubas played checkers instead of chess.

It's a gamble goalie so it's better to play chess and lose than to play checkers and win. This isnt a Tavares sweepstakes it's a goalie whose team doesn't want him and that only 1-2 other organizations stepped up for because the goalie was for free asset wise.

If Murray gives up above average goaltending for the season and goes god mode for the playoffs, Dubas will look like he was playing go while others were playing chess

i was hoping we would try to deal for one of the washington goalies, so, i was pissed when they traded Vanecek for middling picks and we werent on it, then we got Samsonov for free, and cheaper than what his QO would have been, so, that was a huge steal.
Murray i wanted no part of though, but, i hope i'm proven wrong.
Dubas lives or gets fired based on Murray's performance. ...even if Samsomov wins the vezina, but Murray flops, he's likely gone.

Why? He suited samsonov as well

 

[Stephen]

Hard to say with Mrazek. Took a major injury in his first game and could never get on track as he kept getting hurt. Looked like he was almost trying too hard when he was healthy. No one saw him flubbing things (like that missed blocker to the corner against Arizona) so badly so often in earlier years.

Mrazek is more of a flow state goalie who gets into a groove, and that mojo factor kicks in allowing him to play at a high level when he’s on his game. When it’s off, he falls back on pure athleticism and his instinct turns to guessing. Kind of a 90s reflex goalie in that respect.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

If Murray gives up above average goaltending for the season and goes god mode for the playoffs, Dubas will look like he was playing go while others were playing chess

No he won't. It will transition to a reckless move where we were lucky it worked out. It's like having a 5 on 1 and the puck carrier decides to take the puck straight to the 1 defender and deke through his legs, ends up pulling it off and scores. It worked but it was reckless and not smart at all. There was no need to make this trade yet and not going to waste breath diving into why again.

"yet" as in when it happen, maybe today you do it based on how things went since, but we'll never know now what those things are or would have been