Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] Marner re-signs (6 years, $10.893M AAV) Part III

[BoredBrandonPridham]

You in no way explained how it is lazy. You said it is “purpose built lazily for these discussions and comes off as disingenuous and makes me feel sad that you spend so much time when if you really were that interested, you could just do actual research, built on the shoulders of those smart people who have done research before you, and do something actually useful outside of the context and bias of these dumb discussions.”

That is just condescending drivel. You provided nothing to explain how that analysis is lazy or flawed in any way.

I did though.

 

[Legion34]

You in no way explained how it is lazy. You said it is “purpose built lazily for these discussions and comes off as disingenuous and makes me feel sad that you spend so much time when if you really were that interested, you could just do actual research, built on the shoulders of those smart people who have done research before you, and do something actually useful outside of the context and bias of these dumb discussions.”

That is just condescending drivel. You provided nothing to explain how that analysis is lazy or flawed in any way.

You realize you ignore industry professionals including GMs. Accountants. Players and actual results

And you make up “studies” ..... your research isn’t what you think it is

 

[Space umpire]

My favourite part was when you showed that Marner and Matthews both outperform the contract trendline for ES and PP production.

Of course Marner as a 1st liner does this against the best defenses an opponent can offer. Matthews would line up against lesser talents.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Of course Marner as a 1st liner does this against the best defenses an opponent can offer. Matthews would line up against lesser talents.

This is incorrect. Matthews does not have worse QOC over his ELC, and Matthews has had some of the lowest quality linemates to date of any star player, which have been proven to affect production much more than QOC. Not to mention PP deployment, where Matthews has gotten the shortest end of the stick of pretty much anyone even close to his quality.

 

[Drytoast]

None of our talent signed anything but selfish "me first, team second" contracts. Kills my desire to cheer for this team tbh.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

None of our talent signed anything but selfish "me first, team second" contracts. Kills my desire to cheer for this team tbh.

I think this is a trend across the league. The "super" stars are all demanding top dollar. More than ever, drafting quality players on entry level contacts to fill out your team is essential.

At the same time, you could argue Dubas was overly generous in giving the huge signing bonuses. This is establishing a trend that will surely cause problems for all teams in the future.

 

[hotpaws]

None of our talent signed anything but selfish "me first, team second" contracts. Kills my desire to cheer for this team tbh.

the kids on our team were the one's who brought us out of toilet we were in for over a decade

and then our GM went out and signed JT and foolishly believed our rfa's were going to take discounts to leave money for the rest of the roster

unfortunately he set an internal comparable and since Mathews and Marner are better players they weren't going to sign for less

Dubas f***ed up plain and simple and while i believe both M&M signed overpayments based on market comparable's they didn't sign for overpayments compared to what Tavares signed for .

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

the kids on our team were the one's who brought us out of toilet we were in for over a decade

and then our GM went out and signed JT and foolishly believed our rfa's were going to take discounts to leave money for the rest of the roster

unfortunately he set an internal comparable and since Mathews and Marner are better players they weren't going to sign for less

Dubas ****ed up plain and simple and while i believe both M&M signed overpayments based on market comparable's they didn't sign for overpayments compared to what Tavares signed for .

if signing an elite center for millions less than other teams offered is Dubas' big f*** up, then he's doing fine

 

[hotpaws]

if signing an elite center for millions less than other teams offered is Dubas' big **** up, then he's doing fine

if you believe he's the best player in the game and should be paid like it then i guess we'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that

and funny how pretty much every big ticket ufa says they could have signed for more including our beloved Clarkson , lol

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

if you believe he's the best player in the game and should be paid like it then i guess we'll just agree to disagree and leave it at that

and funny how pretty much every big ticket ufa says they could have signed for more including our beloved Clarkson , lol

I don't think Clarkson and Tavares are comparable signings

 

[hotpaws]

I don't think Clarkson and Tavares are comparable signings

of course aren't in talent but they did both said they took less to sign here like pretty much every big ticket ufa

and as you said , if you believe JT is a better player than McD and should have been more then we'll leave it at that and end our discussion

 

[Dekes For Days]

if you believe he's the best player in the game and should be paid like it

if you believe JT is a better player than McD

Either you missed what Tavares signed for, or you missed what McDavid signed for...

 

[hotpaws]

Either you missed what Tavares signed for, or you missed what McDavid signed for...

or you missed the poster who said JT is underpaid since he could have signed for millions more per year which would have paid him more than CD

 

[Nithoniniel]

You would think JoeThorntonsRooster and Tripod were Leaf executives considering how much time they spend analyzing Leaf contracts.

Don't always agree with them, but I think both are good posters that can argue their case and give you food for thought. I like hearing other perspectives, especially since most discussions around here consist of: a) people who can't produce an actual argument and fixate on me instead, and b) contrarians who for example - and this is a real discussion I've had - can't even acknowledge that it's easier to score against an empty net unless I produce "proof".

 

[phlocky]

Omg, so much crap and hate being spewed from both sides and for what???

I'm happy for the Leafs and their fans for getting "their guy" locked up. Why can't we just be happy for them??? Wjy does anyone have to feel like they are better than or know more than other posters???

The season is almost here, let's be happy about that. The first month of football season is just killing time til hockey starts as far as I'm concerned. Let the fun begin, cheer for your team and don't worry about others. Be happy we all are here to see another season of the best sport in the world.

 

[Dekes For Days]

or you missed the poster who said JT is underpaid since he could have signed for millions more per year which would have paid him more than CD

1. UFA and RFA are different and have different valuations.
2. Tavares at 13m would still be a lower cap hit percentage than what McDavid signed.
3. This is ignoring that McDavid took a significant public discount and his actual market value at time of signing was 13.25m.
4. You are wrong about Tavares impacting the Matthews and Marner contracts. They got those contracts because they were among the best players over their ELC in the entire cap era.
5. Even if it did impact the contracts, it was more than worth it. Waiting on your rebuild forever is stupid. Leafs may have never gotten to the level of cup contender they are right now.

 

[Legion34]

or you missed the poster who said JT is underpaid since he could have signed for millions more per year which would have paid him more than CD

You don’t believe agents and industry professionals?

Not surprised

 

[hotpaws]

You don’t believe agents and industry professionals?

Not surprised

name them , all i hear is the "insiders" regurgitating the same line without having a clue how the tax system works

and as i said the only discounts i see players taking were the deals signed by Yzerman

i don't see anyone else in Tampa taking a discount after Yazerman left nor do i see other players in non state tax teams taking discounts so why do you keep regurgitating the same old crap ?

 

[Confucius]

the kids on our team were the one's who brought us out of toilet we were in for over a decade

and then our GM went out and signed JT and foolishly believed our rfa's were going to take discounts to leave money for the rest of the roster

unfortunately he set an internal comparable and since Mathews and Marner are better players they weren't going to sign for less

Dubas ****ed up plain and simple and while i believe both M&M signed overpayments based on market comparable's they didn't sign for overpayments compared to what Tavares signed for .

The difference is Tavares was a ufa and you have to outbid everyone to entice one to sign with you. Worth it though because he came at no asset cost. We used valuable draft picks on our RFA's and theoretically they had to play for us. Theoretically we had them over a barrel. Blows me away how we caved to their demands, how all teams cave to their RFA's. Although we do pay more than the rest, every team caves to some degree in my opinion.

 

[Dekes For Days]

case in point was how you kept going around saying that goal scoring centers are worth much more than playmaker's and especially wingers then you turn around and defend Marner's deal as a non overpayment because of um other reasons , lol

I said goal-scorers are more valuable and centers are more valuable, all else equal, and that has remained true throughout. That doesn't mean you ignore everything else about the players. And Marner didn't get the same contract as Matthews, so I frankly have no idea what you're talking about. Please understand the arguments/discussions you are referencing before complaining about them.

I've said that I wish Marner's contract was a couple hundred thousand less, but the ridiculous hyperbole and claims of massive over-payment being thrown around are based on faulty logic. Marner got paid because he is one of the best ES producers in the entire cap era, at one of the youngest ages, and is the best PP producer at time of signing in the entire cap era.

 

[hotpaws]

Comparing Clarkson to Tavares for one... and I've only seen your posts on two pages.

i didn't compare them as players , i said they and pretty much every big ticket ufa say they took less

why do you find a problem with this ?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I was a big supporter of the Tavares signing. It's approximate market value for a ufa of his caliber. I don't care (or even fully believe) that another team was willing to overpay him in the 13 millions. Quite literally EVERY high profile rfa signing these days comes with insider "rumours" that money was left on the table, so I don't even fully buy it anymore. But regardless, 11x7 is fair for Tavares.

But I really do think it affected contract negotiations for the leafs high profile rfa's. I didn't think it would. But it did.

Now I'm starting to question if the leafs would have been better off without him.
Comparing top 6's.

Choice a:
Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Kapanen-Kadri-Nylander (plus approx 10 mil cap space)
vs

Choice b:
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander (minus approx 10 mil cap space).

Hmm.. not sure anymore. Choice A is still a VERY good top 6, with 10 mil extra space for depth on D and other areas.

At the same time, if Tavares continues putting up near 50 goals.. can't really argue with that. But if Tavares reverts back to his career averages of mid 30 goals... I don't know anymore.

 

[SotasicA]

This one fits with the topic:



Great song.

 

[Tripod]

Don't always agree with them, but I think both are good posters that can argue their case and give you food for thought. I like hearing other perspectives, especially since most discussions around here consist of: a) people who can't produce an actual argument and fixate on me instead, and b) contrarians who for example - and this is a real discussion I've had - can't even acknowledge that it's easier to score against an empty net unless I produce "proof".

Nice to see an impartial opinion. I can't respond to his comments about me since it was deleted...by a MOD I assume.

As for posting about Matthews and Marner, yup, I have. I have also posted in the Laine and Rants threads. Hell, I posted that I like Miles Wood in his thread. I post a lot...lol.

But when it comes to this summer, almost every RFA was waiting on Marner...then hoping their contract would be compared to that is some way(most in a lesser since Point, Rants and Marner were a tier above the rest). And with the Flyers having 2 RFA's all summer, of course I would have a vested interest in what is going on.

I have also tried to fair...and have stated numerous times, that I like Marner and have since pre-draft. I wanted him to fall to the Flyers is we were picking a F...but was scared NJ might grab him beforehand anyways. But it's my opinion that Dubas overpaid for Marner, because he overpaid for Matthews. And overpayment comes with term...too short. And as of now, we have no idea if other RFA forwards will get their GM to cave too. The Dmen market hasn't changed much. But until Point, Rants, Tkachuk, etc.. sign, we won't know if M&M set a new market, or if they are outliers. Right now, they are outliers in terms of "term". If others sign for 5/6 tears AND big money, than they set the market and other GM's followed. And that will change the market for good. But if others sign for less...or 7/8 years, then M&M remain outliers.

Time will tell.

Oh...and note, I have also said that overpaying their star IS NOT a pitfall like some other posters who have predicted doom and gloom for the Leafs and their cap in the future. Those people are taking things to the extreme. It just might mean that the Leafs move a guy like AJ or Kapanen and replace with Bracco to said 2 million. But then they use that pick they get back for that trade, to try and keep the pipeline going. Team get in trouble when they pay big money to the Zaitsev's...or Marleau's of the world....then have to "waste" a 1st rounder to fix the problem. But as we have see with multiple teams, other teams are willing to take "problems", for a price.

And hey, at least the Least have their guys in camp and ready to help the teams come game 1. Other teams not getting things done will run the risk of uncertainty like what happened with Nylander. Young players seem to need training camp. The Jets, Flames, Canucks, etc... need to get shit done.

2nd side note: the leafs signing JT was a no brainer...then and now. Being able to have a 1-2 C punch of JT and Matthews would be an easy yes for Dubas...regardless who it "could" cost in the future...because it won't cost losing M&M.

 

[HOPE]

I was a big supporter of the Tavares signing. It's approximate market value for a ufa of his caliber. I don't care (or even fully believe) that another team was willing to overpay him in the 13 millions. Quite literally EVERY high profile rfa signing these days comes with insider "rumours" that money was left on the table, so I don't even fully buy it anymore. But regardless, 11x7 is fair for Tavares.

But I really do think it affected contract negotiations for the leafs high profile rfa's. I didn't think it would. But it did.

Now I'm starting to question if the leafs would have been better off without him.
Comparing top 6's.

Choice a:
Johnsson-Matthews-Marner
Kapanen-Kadri-Nylander (plus approx 10 mil cap space)
vs

Choice b:
Kapanen-Tavares-Marner
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander (minus approx 10 mil cap space).

Hmm.. not sure anymore. Choice A is still a VERY good top 6, with 10 mil extra space for depth on D and other areas.

At the same time, if Tavares continues putting up near 50 goals.. can't really argue with that. But if Tavares reverts back to his career averages of mid 30 goals... I don't know anymore.

I said the minute it happened that Tavares was a poisoned gift.