Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] Marner re-signs (6 years, $10.893M AAV) Part III

[Toene]

Wait, there are Leafs fans who think Marner deserves less than what he got? He's their best player while being their 3rd most paid. I fail to see the problem.

 

[TorontoTrades]

Wait, there are Leafs fans who think Marner deserves less than what he got? He's their best player while being their 3rd most paid. I fail to see the problem.

It was the Matthews contract that handcuffed them. Tavares deal is irrelevant he was UFA lured from another team.

 

[42]

It was the Matthews contract that handcuffed them. Tavares deal is irrelevant he was UFA lured from another team.

I still don't get the motivation for Dubas to give Matthews the contract he did. Top AAV that takes him right to UFA + 1 year. Yeah, that was a huge hole Dubas dug himself.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I still don't get the motivation for Dubas to give Matthews the contract he did. Top AAV that takes him right to UFA.

It does not take him "right to UFA". It buys a UFA year.

The motivation for signing Matthews to that contract is having one of the best young players in the entire cap era on your team. One of the best ES producers, one of the best PP producers, and the best goal-scorer at that point of his career in 15+ years.

Nobody questioned Malkin's post-ELC contract.

 

[42]

It does not take him "right to UFA". It buys a UFA year.

The motivation for signing Matthews to that contract is having one of the best young players in the entire cap era on your team. One of the best ES producers, one of the best PP producers, and the best goal-scorer at that point of his career in 15+ years.

Nobody questioned Malkin's post-ELC contract.

Malkin by the end of his ELC contract had 2 100+ seasons, a Calder, an Art Ross and a Conn Smythe under his belt. Matthews has a Calder. Malkin was unquestionably a better player than Matthews at the same stage of their NHL careers.

 

[crowi]

Basically a PPG player with 73 points season as his best = one of the best young players in the entire cap era. Well, he has calder. That must be worth around $4M.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Malkin by the end of his ELC contract had 2 100+ points, a Calder, an Art Ross and a Conn Smythe under his belt.

Malkin at time of signing just had a Calder, like Matthews.

Malkin was unquestionably a better player than Matthews.

Except he wasn't. Matthews was clearly better, at least at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. Malkin just came up in the league at a time when PPs were handed out like candy, which has skewed your perception of him.

ES P/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES P/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.67
Malkin: 0.73

ES G/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

ES G/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.39
Malkin: 0.31

PP P/60

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP G/60

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

And Malkin was over a year older, got #1 PP deployment every year, and got to play behind and have minutes with the best player in the game.

 

[42]

Malkin at time of signing just had a Calder, like Matthews.


Except he wasn't. Matthews was clearly better, at least at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. Malkin just came up in the league at a time when PPs were handed out like candy, which has skewed your perception of him.

ES P/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES P/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.67
Malkin: 0.73

ES G/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

ES G/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.39
Malkin: 0.31

PP P/60

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP G/60

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

And Malkin was over a year older, got #1 PP deployment every year, and got to play behind and have minutes with the best player in the game.

You are right, Malkin did sign his 2nd contract in July 2008 before his Art Ross and Conn Smythe. He did have 1 100+ season and a Calder.
So since when is a player's value measured by detailed breakdowns of offensive production cherry-picked to make your player look better? I just look up PPG and total points and see Malkin ahead of Matthews. After two NHL seasons, Malkin was way ahead of Matthews in both ppg and points. Malkin had both seasons PPG+ while Matthews barely managed PPG+ in his 2nd season.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So since when is a player's value measured by detailed breakdowns of offensive production cherry-picked to make your player look better?

There is nothing cherry-picked. This is the entirety of their production, which has always been the primary measure of a forward's value. ES and PP, with additional context. I even adjusted for scoring rates, which inflates historical top-end players like Malkin more than it should.

Technically, looking at raw points with no context when there is a MASSIVE difference in PP opportunity between eras (not to even mention teams) is more-so cherry-picking.

I just look up PPG and total points and see Malkin ahead of Matthews. After two NHL seasons, Malkin was way ahead of Matthews in both ppg and points. Malkin had both seasons PPG+ while Matthews barely managed PPG+ in his 2nd season.

Yes. Because of PPs being handed out like candy during that time, drastically affecting raw point totals. This doesn't make Malkin a better player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

But pp’s were handing out like “candy”

There were over twice as many PPs handed out coming out of the lockout compared to last year, and PPs result in big swings in production. It's insane to ignore that.

 

[Bomber0104]

There were over twice as many PPs handed out coming out of the lockout compared to last year, and PPs result in big swings in production. It's insane to ignore that.

Malkin didn't play in that season though, did he?

For someone who claims to have studied Malkin's production, getting the basics right such as when he actually played would be a great place to start.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

There is nothing cherry-picked. This is the entirety of their production, which has always been the primary measure of a forward's value. ES and PP, with additional context. I even adjusted for scoring rates, which inflates historical top-end players like Malkin more than it should.

Technically, looking at raw points with no context when there is a MASSIVE difference in PP opportunity between eras (not to even mention teams) is more-so cherry-picking.


Yes. Because of PPs being handed out like candy during that time, drastically affecting raw point totals. This doesn't make Malkin a better player.

There is nothing cherry picked here? Hmm, let's see about that...

I don't see where you mentioned that the league-wide PPG/60 was 6.42 in Malkin's first two years, while it was 7.11 throughout Matthews' ELC up to the day that he signed.

I don't see where you mentioned playoff performances. At the time of signing, Matthews' playoff career was 0.54 ES P/GP, 6.29 PPP/60
while Malkin's was 0.48 ES P/GP, 0 PPP/60 before applying an era-adjustment for either player.

I don't see where you mentioned that Malkin finished 1st in all-team center voting and 2nd in Hart Trophy voting in the season before he signed his contract.

I don't see where you mentioned that Malkin had missed only 2.4% of his team's games, while Matthews had missed 15.7% of his team's games, and that any "per game" or "per 60" metric is going to be more friendly to Matthews than any raw metric.

I don't see where you mentioned that these metrics are not related to pay as closely as raw points are, and that Malkin was 2nd in scoring in his contract year.

I do see that you've cherry picked quite a bit here, in fact.

 

[42]

There were over twice as many PPs handed out coming out of the lockout compared to last year, and PPs result in big swings in production. It's insane to ignore that.

And in the 3 seasons that Malkin and Matthews have shared in the NHL with the same PPO (I'm not going to bother with the difference between PIT and TOR PPO), Malkin's PPP per GP are significantly higher. Malkin is the better PP player clearly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Malkin didn't play in that season though, did he?

No, though it helps show the massive difference between eras and why it's necessary to not just look at raw production with no context. Crosby and Ovechkin both played that season. Malkin started the season after that, when PPs were still heavily inflated and Pittsburgh had 2.2 times as many PPs as Toronto did last year.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't see where you mentioned that the league-wide PPG/60 was 6.42 in Malkin's first two years, while it was 7.11 throughout Matthews' ELC up to the day that he signed.

Not sure where you got this information, but even if true, Matthews would still be better on the PP when adjusted.

I don't see where you mentioned playoff performances.

Playoff performances are tiny sample sizes against vastly different quality of opponents, so not sure how they can be accurately compared. It doesn't change much of anything anyway.

I don't see where you mentioned that Malkin finished 1st in all-team center voting and 2nd in Hart Trophy voting in the season before he signed his contract.

Good for him that he can win placements in meaningless fantasy teams and lose awards? Matthews also came in 2nd to the rocket, which at least is based on statistics and not a writer's opinion poll. Not sure why this is relevant.

I don't see where you mentioned that Malkin had missed only 2.4% of his team's games, while Matthews had missed 15.7% of his team's games

Because it's a beyond stupid thing to care about for a contract into the future.

and that any "per game" or "per 60" metric is going to be more friendly to Matthews than any raw metric.

It's not "friendly" to Matthews. It shows his actual value if that's what you mean.

I don't see where you mentioned that these metrics are not related to pay as closely as raw points are

Because it's untrue, despite how many times you post your cherry-picked charts and graphs that you have manipulated to say what you want, with countless issues that have been repeatedly pointed out to you for you to consistently ignore.

I do see that you've cherry picked quite a bit here, in fact.

Nope, just not cherry-picking in a pure anti-Leaf way like you.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So in other words, you either didn't know when Malkin started his career or you did and tried to fabricate and embellish this supposed "context" that you're going on about.

No, I knew when Malkin started his career, and posted context that showed why it's important to not look at just raw point totals when comparing across eras where there are MASSIVE differences in PP opportunities. Those were the two years I had on hand, and the point is the exact same.

Malkin actually got more than double the PP TOI/GP over the relevant time frame, so I actually underrepresented the difference.

 

[Bomber0104]

No, I knew when Malkin started his career, and posted context that showed why it's important to not look at just raw point totals when comparing across eras where there are MASSIVE differences in PP opportunities. Those were the two years I had on hand, and the point is the exact same.

Malkin actually got more than double the PP TOI/GP over the relevant time frame, so I actually underrepresented the difference.

So in your mind we should be giving credit to Matthews for imaginary pucks that didn't cross the goal line and put him ahead of Evgeni Malkin who (in real life and not in your imagination) actually scored an order of magnitude more points than Matthews?

A simple yes or no will suffice.

 

[Dekes For Days]

And in the 3 seasons that Malkin and Matthews have shared in the NHL with the same PPO (I'm not going to bother with the difference between PIT and TOR PPO), Malkin's PPP per GP are significantly higher. Malkin is the better PP player clearly.

Over the past 3 years, Malkin's PP production is slightly better than Matthews, but what Malkin can do now as a veteran is entirely irrelevant to what Malkin was doing when at the point Matthews is in his career.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Nobody questioned Malkin's post-ELC contract

Cause he scored 85, 106 and 113pts (winning the art Ross) in his first three seasons, made the finals twice and won the cup by then?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So in your mind we should be giving credit to Matthews for imaginary pucks that didn't cross the goal line and put him ahead of Evgeni Malkin who (in real life and not in your imagination) actually scored an order of magnitude more points than Matthews?

No, we should be giving Matthews credit for what he has proven he can do over a significant sample in the circumstances he has, not holding the fact that the league no longer needs to save itself by pumping PPs into the hands of its young stars against him.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Cause he scored 85, 106 and 113pts in his first three seasons, made the finals twice and won the cup by then?

Malkin signed after his 2nd season. What he did after that was irrelevant to his contract.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Malkin signed after his 2nd season. What he did after that was irrelevant to his contract.

Fair enough. If Matthews wins the art Ross, cup and playoff mvp next season no one will question his deal anymore either.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Malkin at time of signing just had a Calder, like Matthews.


Except he wasn't. Matthews was clearly better, at least at time of signing their post-ELC contracts. Malkin just came up in the league at a time when PPs were handed out like candy, which has skewed your perception of him.

ES P/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES P/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.67
Malkin: 0.73

ES G/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

ES G/GP, adjusted for ES scoring rates:

Matthews: 0.39
Malkin: 0.31

PP P/60

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP G/60

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

And Malkin was over a year older, got #1 PP deployment every year, and got to play behind and have minutes with the best player in the game.

Malkin signed as a 106 point player after scoring 106 points.

Matthews signed as a 106 point player after scoring (lol) 69 points, and then a hot start to a season (which he ended with (lol) 74 points).

That's the f***ing difference.

This would NOT happen in reverse. If Matthews scored 106 points, NOBODY would be saying that 74 point career high players were comparables. NOBODY. In fact, it woud be considered f***ing TROLLING if someone were to do it.

 

[Dache]

No, though it helps show the massive difference between eras and why it's necessary to not just look at raw production with no context. Crosby and Ovechkin both played that season. Malkin started the season after that, when PPs were still heavily inflated and Pittsburgh had 2.2 times as many PPs as Toronto did last year.

So Crosby and Ovi played that season but you’re comparing it to Malkin? I get that there were more pp’s in that era and you have a point, but people start arguing with and ignoring you when you pick a different year because it helps even more.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If Matthews wins the art Ross, cup and playoff mvp next season no one will question his deal anymore either.

Point is, nobody questioned Malkin's deal before that happened.

Give Matthews 5 and a half minutes of PP time every game and he probably would.