Confirmed Signing with Link: [TOR] F Auston Matthews signs extension with the Maple Leafs (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[DaveMatthew]

Yeah, you’re right.

The controversial goal Calgary was disallowed in the Stanley Cup series clinching game was because of Iginla’s contract.

You’ve made some solid points here.

Here are all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was introduced, and their highest paid player (as a % of the cap) in the year they won:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Salary cap[/TD]
[TD]Champion[/TD]
[TD]Highest paid player[/TD]
[TD]Cap hit[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]$39,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Carolina[/TD]
[TD]Rod Brind'Amour[/TD]
[TD]$3,800,000[/TD]
[TD]9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]$44,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Anaheim[/TD]
[TD]Scott Niedermayer[/TD]
[TD]$6,750,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]$50,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Detroit[/TD]
[TD]Nicklas Lidstrom[/TD]
[TD]$7,600,000[/TD]
[TD]15.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]$56,700,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$56,800,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]
[TD]$7,142,875[/TD]
[TD]12.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]$59,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]12.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]$60,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]10.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]$69,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]9.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016[/TD]
[TD]$71,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017[/TD]
[TD]$73,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018[/TD]
[TD]$75,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462[/TD]
[TD]12.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019[/TD]
[TD]$79,500,000[/TD]
[TD]St.Louis[/TD]
[TD]Vladimir Tarasenko[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]9.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilveskyi[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]Miko Rantanen[/TD]
[TD]$9,250,000[/TD]
[TD]11.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023[/TD]
[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Vegas[/TD]
[TD]Jack Eichel[/TD]
[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]
[TD]12.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

A team with a player making 15% or more of the cap hasn't won the cup since Sidney Crosby did it in 2009. And even that year, it was offset by Malkin still being on his ELC.

Auston Matthews will have a cap hit above 15% of the cap for at least the next 2 seasons. And the Leafs won't have any star players supporting him on significant bargain contracts.

The question isn't "Is Matthews overpaid at $13.25M?" Because, no, he isn't. The question is "Can you win with Matthews making $13.25M?". And the answer is, at least in the next couple of seasons - probably not.

Based on historical numbers, you want your highest cap hit to be 11-13% of the cap. That won't happen for the Leafs until, most likely, 2028.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Fine. None of that means that Matthews contract is appropriate. Its a selfish contract.

He should have took less money because HF posters longwaydown37 said so. Okay you happy?

Toronto should be, they kept one of the top players in the game on their team for 4 more years. Could have done better but he held the cards and got to this point in his career. He can make his own decisions and I don't believe it effects the team. He's betting on himself

 

[LongWayDown37]

Tavares has 2 years left, trades are still possible, 18M coming off the books in the summer.

great. Just a couple short years before Matthews made sure he had the opportunity to f*** the Leafs over again. Probably part of the reason he wanted it short - he sees the opportunity to repeatedly rape their cap.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

4 years?

Leafs got sonned.

 

[Divine]

Here are all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was introduced, and their highest paid player (as a % of the cap) in the year they won:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Salary cap[/TD]
[TD]Champion[/TD]
[TD]Highest paid player[/TD]
[TD]Salary[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]$39,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Carolina[/TD]
[TD]Rod Brind'Amour[/TD]
[TD]$3,800,000[/TD]
[TD]9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]$44,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Anaheim[/TD]
[TD]Scott Niedermayer[/TD]
[TD]$6,750,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]$50,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Detroit[/TD]
[TD]Nicklas Lidstrom[/TD]
[TD]$7,600,000[/TD]
[TD]15.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]$56,700,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$56,800,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]
[TD]$7,142,875[/TD]
[TD]12.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]$59,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]12.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]$60,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]10.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]$69,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]9.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016[/TD]
[TD]$71,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017[/TD]
[TD]$73,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018[/TD]
[TD]$75,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462[/TD]
[TD]12.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019[/TD]
[TD]$79,500,000[/TD]
[TD]St.Louis[/TD]
[TD]Vladimir Tarasenko[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]9.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilveskyi[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]Miko Rantanen[/TD]
[TD]$9,250,000[/TD]
[TD]11.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023[/TD]
[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Vegas[/TD]
[TD]Jack Eichel[/TD]
[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]
[TD]12.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

A team with a player making 15% or more of the cap hasn't won the cup since Sidney Crosby did it in 2009. And even that year, it was offset by Malkin still being on his ELC.

Auston Matthews will have a cap hit above 15% of the cap for at least the next 2 seasons. And the Leafs won't have any star players supporting him on significant bargain contracts.

The question isn't "Is Matthews overpaid at $13.25M?" Because, no, he isn't. The question is "Can you win with Matthews making $13.25M?". And the answer is, at least in the next couple of seasons - probably not.

I mean you’ve shown it’s possible, but yes, it’s hard to win a Cup regardless of contract.

Matthews contract also doesn’t go into effect until next offseason.

 

[surixon]

Ehh, I believe Crosby has the single highest cap percentage contract in NHL history.

Regardless of whether you believe he was deserving of that or not, it's hard to say that would be, "Team friendly".

Ovie's was higher. They were both of their elc at the same point and Ovie had the higher aav on his deal.

 

[TOGuy14]

Leafs fan here

Don’t really like the contract, even just for the message it sends about where the priorities are here (maximizing personal enrichment)

Don’t see the team winning anything meaningful in the postseason with this core over the next five years.

Look forward to the next rebuild

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Here are all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was introduced, and their highest paid player (as a % of the cap) in the year they won:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD]Salary cap[/TD]
[TD]Champion[/TD]
[TD]Highest paid player[/TD]
[TD]Cap hit[/TD]
[TD]%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]$39,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Carolina[/TD]
[TD]Rod Brind'Amour[/TD]
[TD]$3,800,000[/TD]
[TD]9.74%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]$44,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Anaheim[/TD]
[TD]Scott Niedermayer[/TD]
[TD]$6,750,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]$50,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Detroit[/TD]
[TD]Nicklas Lidstrom[/TD]
[TD]$7,600,000[/TD]
[TD]15.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]$56,700,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Sidney Crosby[/TD]
[TD]$8,700,000[/TD]
[TD]15.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$56,800,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Brian Campbell[/TD]
[TD]$7,142,875[/TD]
[TD]12.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]$59,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Boston[/TD]
[TD]Zdeno Chara[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]12.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]$60,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]10.50%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$64,300,000[/TD]
[TD]Los Angeles[/TD]
[TD]Drew Doughty[/TD]
[TD]$7,000,000[/TD]
[TD]10.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]$69,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Chicago[/TD]
[TD]Patrick Kane[/TD]
[TD]$6,300,000[/TD]
[TD]9.13%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016[/TD]
[TD]$71,400,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.31%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2017[/TD]
[TD]$73,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD]Evgeni Malkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]13.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018[/TD]
[TD]$75,000,000[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]
[TD]$9,538,462[/TD]
[TD]12.72%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019[/TD]
[TD]$79,500,000[/TD]
[TD]St.Louis[/TD]
[TD]Vladimir Tarasenko[/TD]
[TD]$7,500,000[/TD]
[TD]9.43%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2021[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD]Andrei Vasilveskyi[/TD]
[TD]$9,500,000[/TD]
[TD]11.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2022[/TD]
[TD]$81,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[TD]Miko Rantanen[/TD]
[TD]$9,250,000[/TD]
[TD]11.35%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2023[/TD]
[TD]$82,500,000[/TD]
[TD]Vegas[/TD]
[TD]Jack Eichel[/TD]
[TD]$10,000,000[/TD]
[TD]12.12%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

A team with a player making 15% or more of the cap hasn't won the cup since Sidney Crosby did it in 2009. And even that year, it was offset by Malkin still being on his ELC.

Auston Matthews will have a cap hit above 15% of the cap for at least the next 2 seasons. And the Leafs won't have any star players supporting him on significant bargain contracts.

The question isn't "Is Matthews overpaid at $13.25M?" Because, no, he isn't. The question is "Can you win with Matthews making $13.25M?". And the answer is, at least in the next couple of seasons - probably not.

Great post! I think an added issue is that the team has too much cap tied up in four forwards who are the teams four highest paid players. If some of that was allocated to a top D or a top goalie, like Tampa, it’s probably a stronger overall team.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I mean you’ve shown it’s possible, but yes, it’s hard to win a Cup regardless of contract.

Correct, everything has to go right to win a cup. If Matthews is making a percentage point more than most is that going to be the difference in Toronto winning a cup? I don't believe so

 

[AvroArrow]

Fine. None of that means that Matthews contract is appropriate. Its a selfish contract.

What number would have been appropriate to you on a 4 year deal ?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yeah, because you moved the goalposts.

How about Bergeron when he signed a 3 year contract at Matthews age? Was he Cupless too?

Read it again. Perhaps more slowly this time:

You interpreted my response to your examples as "Rejecting" them, when the reality is I'm laughing at the justification of this contract being that guys who have never won Cups did the same thing. Congrats!

Good point on Bergeron though. His $5M/year contract was a huge burden on the team at the time.

 

[AvroArrow]

I mean you’ve shown it’s possible, but yes, it’s hard to win a Cup regardless of contract.

Matthews contract also doesn’t go into effect until next offseason.

Also the cap will continuously being going up now, thus bringing his total cap percentage down every year.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Thanks professor. If he never had the highest cap hit in any particular year, logically he would never have had the highest cap %.

You're welcome student. I literally conceded that you were right several replies ago.

 

[Divine]

Read it again. Perhaps more slowly this time:


Good point on Bergeron though. His $5M/year contract was a huge burden on the team at the time.

Can you list all your goalposts in one post.

First it’s who signed a 3 year contract.
Then it’s who signed a 3 year contract and won the Cup.

Now it’s who signed a 3 year contract, won the Cup, and was paid x amount?

What’s next - post pandemic

I mean, I like scoring goals but there’s too many nets to shoot at.

Just be more specific and ask how many players born on September 17, 1997 won the Stanley Cup and signed a 4 year contract extension on August 24, 2023.

 

[Neil Racki]

Leafs keep one of the top 10 players in the league in his prime ...

the Horror!!

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Can you list all your goalposts in one post.

First it’s who signed a 3 year contract.
Then it’s who signed a 3 year contract and won the Cup.

Now it’s who signed a 3 year contract, won the Cup, and was paid x amount?

What’s next post pandemic?

Do you need me to quote my post again?

I've no problem with your Iginla and Thornton examples. You oddly keep claiming that I do, or that I contested them, or that I "Moved the goal posts to exclude them".

I actually think they're great examples, because they too never won a Cup. If that's the trajectory you want Matthews on, great examples!

 

[smytty]

The controversial goal Calgary was disallowed in the Stanley Cup series clinching game was because of Iginla’s contract.

What are you talking about? The game winner in the series clinching game was scored by Fedotenko

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Leafs keep one of the top 10 players in the league in his prime ...

the Horror!!

Leafs have three of the Top 9 highest paid players in the league. That's the horror lol.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Leafs keep one of the top 10 players in the league in his prime ...

the Horror!!

It’s almost like having three of the top 9 highest cap forwards plus Nylander doesn’t lead to playoff success.

 

[Divine]

Do you need me to quote my post again?

I've no problem with your Iginla and Thornton examples. You oddly keep claiming that I do, or that I contested them, or that I "Moved the goal posts to exclude them".

I actually think they're great examples, because they too never won a Cup. If that's the trajectory you want Matthews on, great examples!

You’re right. It’s impossible to do anything that hasn’t been done.

A 10M player also never won the cup, so it’s impossible. Oh wait, it just happened.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Leafs have three of the Top 9 highest paid players in the league. That's the horror lol.

The penguins were right there at one point. Didn't work out too bad for them

This is like deja vuuuuuuuuu

 

[DaveMatthew]

I mean you’ve shown it’s possible, but yes, it’s hard to win a Cup regardless of contract.

Matthews contract also doesn’t go into effect until next offseason.

It's more interesting when you break down the 07 Ducks, 08 Wings and 09 Pens.

In 07, the Ducks top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Niedermayer), D (Pronger) and G (Giguere).
In 08 the Wings top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Lidtsrom), C (Datsyuk) and D (Rafalski).
In 09, the Pens top 3 cap-hit players were a C (Crosby), D (Gonchar) and G (Fleury).

Only 2 forwards out of 9 players.

The Leafs top 3 are all forwards. And combined, they'll have a higher cap % hit than any of the 3 players mentioned above did for at least the next two seasons.

For a team that values analytics so much, it's crazy how they've structured their team.

 

[AvroArrow]

Leafs have three of the Top 9 highest paid players in the league. That's the horror lol.

I'd be horrified if I was a divisional rival as well.

 

[Byron Bitz]

So much for signing a shorter deal on his last contract so he could bolt as quickly as he could. I get the semantics, but the Leafs have their 1st line center locked up for 5 more years. I like it. If non-Leaf fans think its a bad deal, then we can be happy together. I do that contract all day long.

Agreed, I’m happy with this contract. I don’t even mind the term, less risky. If I was Colorado I would have preferred a 4 year deal for Mackinnon. If he loses his legs that contract could get real ugly.

 

[AvroArrow]

It's more interesting when you break down the 07 Ducks, 08 Wings and 09 Pens.

In 07, the Ducks top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Niedermayer), D (Pronger) and G (Giguere).
In 08 the Wings top 3 cap-hit players were a D (Lidtsrom), C (Datsyuk) and D (Rafalski).
In 09, the Pens top 3 cap-hit players were a C (Crosby), D (Gonchar) and G (Fleury).

Only 2 forwards out of 9 players.

The Leafs top 3 are all forwards. And combined, they'll have a higher cap % hit than any of the 3 players mentioned above did for at least the next two seasons.

For a team that values analytics so much, it's crazy how they've structured their team.

In case you missed the news, Treliving is now the GM of Toronto. Dubas is in Pittsburgh.