DaveMatthew
Bring in Peter
Yeah, you’re right.
The controversial goal Calgary was disallowed in the Stanley Cup series clinching game was because of Iginla’s contract.
You’ve made some solid points here.
Here are all the Stanley Cup winners since the cap was introduced, and their highest paid player (as a % of the cap) in the year they won:
Salary cap | Champion | Highest paid player | Cap hit | % | |
2006 | $39,000,000 | Carolina | Rod Brind'Amour | $3,800,000 | 9.74% |
2007 | $44,000,000 | Anaheim | Scott Niedermayer | $6,750,000 | 15.34% |
2008 | $50,300,000 | Detroit | Nicklas Lidstrom | $7,600,000 | 15.11% |
2009 | $56,700,000 | Pittsburgh | Sidney Crosby | $8,700,000 | 15.34% |
2010 | $56,800,000 | Chicago | Brian Campbell | $7,142,875 | 12.58% |
2011 | $59,400,000 | Boston | Zdeno Chara | $7,500,000 | 12.63% |
2012 | $64,300,000 | Los Angeles | Drew Doughty | $7,000,000 | 10.89% |
2013 | $60,000,000 | Chicago | Patrick Kane | $6,300,000 | 10.50% |
2014 | $64,300,000 | Los Angeles | Drew Doughty | $7,000,000 | 10.89% |
2015 | $69,000,000 | Chicago | Patrick Kane | $6,300,000 | 9.13% |
2016 | $71,400,000 | Pittsburgh | Evgeni Malkin | $9,500,000 | 13.31% |
2017 | $73,000,000 | Pittsburgh | Evgeni Malkin | $9,500,000 | 13.01% |
2018 | $75,000,000 | Washington | Alex Ovechkin | $9,538,462 | 12.72% |
2019 | $79,500,000 | St.Louis | Vladimir Tarasenko | $7,500,000 | 9.43% |
2020 | $81,500,000 | Tampa Bay | Nikita Kucherov | $9,500,000 | 11.66% |
2021 | $81,500,000 | Tampa Bay | Andrei Vasilveskyi | $9,500,000 | 11.66% |
2022 | $81,500,000 | Colorado | Miko Rantanen | $9,250,000 | 11.35% |
2023 | $82,500,000 | Vegas | Jack Eichel | $10,000,000 | 12.12% |
A team with a player making 15% or more of the cap hasn't won the cup since Sidney Crosby did it in 2009. And even that year, it was offset by Malkin still being on his ELC.
Auston Matthews will have a cap hit above 15% of the cap for at least the next 2 seasons. And the Leafs won't have any star players supporting him on significant bargain contracts.
The question isn't "Is Matthews overpaid at $13.25M?" Because, no, he isn't. The question is "Can you win with Matthews making $13.25M?". And the answer is, at least in the next couple of seasons - probably not.
Based on historical numbers, you want your highest cap hit to be 11-13% of the cap. That won't happen for the Leafs until, most likely, 2028.