Confirmed with Link: [TOR/CBJ/SJS] TOR acquire Nick Foligno [75% Retained] & Stefan Noesen for 2021 1st, 2021 & 2022 4ths

[Menzinger]

you're the one making the excuses not them , i thought i made that clear

maybe he changed his mind because he had to quarantine for half the time , did you think of that or did you ignore it because you're so consumed with defending the Dube's every move

Reposting what journalists have reported and discussed on a player/trade isn't making "excuses" lol.

Unless you have anything tangible (and we both know you don't have anything) like a counter media report that suggested the player would have been overjoyed to come to Toronto, or that he had actually changed his mind on the quarantine issue, you're doing nothing but argue for the sake of arguing.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Even Strength Offense, this year:

Palmieri: 37gms, 6gls, 11pts
Foligno: 42gms, 6gls, 11pts

last year:

Palmieri: 65gms, 14gls, 27pts
Foligno: 67gms, 8gls, 26pts

year before:

Palmieri: 74gms, 16gls, 32pts
Foligno: 73gms, 15gls, 31pts

and Palmieri does that in offensive usage with high ozone starts, while Foligno does it in elite defensive usage.

so in short, because foligno is better.

Looking at their rates if you normalize for ice time at even strength Foligno produces far less goals, he put up half as many goals per 60 last year for example. As we know from contract stuff, goals are valued far higher than assists and Palmieri is a much much better goal scorer than Foligno at all strengths.

That isn't even going into the fact Palmieri produces like 3x more goals and points on the PP per 60 while getting pretty similar PP time the last 3 years (2.5-3 mins for Palmieri and 2.5 for Foligno). Leafs PP is struggling too...

Something tells me your angle would be way different if leafs grabbed Palmieri not Foligno

 

[Ziggdiezan]

But you have no way to identity them.

You could only see that as a positive if you're bad at scouting and like playing the odds instead, but that's not how you should be drafting.

You see a positive because there is a higher chance top 10 talents drops to the late 1st round because of less scouting means the draft order won't be as set. It is definitely playing the odds but there is more chance this year of getting a really good prospect in the late 1st round than a normal year.

 

[zeke]

Looking at their rates if you normalize for ice time at even strength Foligno produces far less goals, he put up half as many goals per 60 last year for example. As we know from contract stuff, goals are valued far higher than assists and Palmieri is a much much better goal scorer than Foligno at all strengths.

That isn't even going into the fact Palmieri produces like 3x more on the PP per 60 while getting pretty similar PP time the last 3 years (2.5-3 mins for Palmieri and 2.5 for Foligno).

Something tells me your angle would be way different if leafs grabbed Palmieri not Foligno

I literally posted a Foligno + Nash deal here weeks ago. Players that have been the defensive leaders in elite defensive usage for some of the better defensive teams in the league.

My angle has always been thus.


But yes you are right - Palmieri is clearly the better PP player. and has been moderately more productive at even strength (1.64p60 vs 1.42 at EV last 3yrs) in dramatically more offensive usage.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Seems like a lot to pay, kind of surprising too as I thought Dubas didn't like rentals. Oh well, trust in Dubas I guess. And now we absolutely have to make it to the final, I mean we were favourites to take the division anyway without adding anyone so this is obviously done with the idea of going further than that so ... get to the final and it will be hard to complain. Don't make it that far and this trade won't look good.

He doesn't but bear in mind there is an expansion draft coming up.

 

[tuckertowns]

McKenzie explicitly stated the Leafs didn’t want Hall. Even then, Hall was going to carry a $4M cap hit for any acquiring team. That would have severely limited the possibility of other moves.

Exactly. This point has not been mentioned enough. Even at 50% retention, that would of left us with little room to do anything else without trading a current roster player (Kerfoot). We've got Foligno, Rittich and I assume a depth defenseman by deadline. I'm ok with passing on Hall. We needed our bottom 6 to be tougher to play against and I think Foligno brings that. I'm pumped!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I literally posted a Foligno + Nash deal here weeks ago. Players that have been the defensive leaders in elite defensive usage for some of the better defensive teams in the league.

My angle has always been thus.

Okay but you just tried to make it seems like Foligno is a better producing player than Palmieri when he clearly isn't?

Saying you like him because he is a defensively responsible forward who adds grit/leadership is a fair take. Posting a bunch of offensive stats and then saying Foligno is better than Palmieri (inferring foligno is more productive) is not a fair take.

I don't think you would be trying to make the argument than Foligno is more productive than Palmieri if the leafs traded for Palmieri instead of Foligno.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

The reaction of supposedly learned, nuanced posters clamoring for grit when we acquire an actual difference making physical two way forward

"But someone slightly better offensively went for less!"

LOL. It's like all the posters talking about how the Atlantic was weak and Toronto would never survive playing in the West, Toronto gets moved into a West division and produces their highest winning percentage in franchise history and now you hear "yeah well imagine if they had to play Tampa and Boston". Lulz. This place.

 

[Cotton]

Or Dubas simply misread the market and undervalued what a 1st-2nd could get you.

You should probably refresh your memory on what a 1st-2nd can get you.

Goodrow got a 1st.
Skjei got a 1st.
Athanasiou got two 2nd’s
Pageau got a 1st/2nd and cond 3rd
Scandella got a 2nd/4th
Greene got a 2nd
Gusev got a 2nd/3rd
Johansson got a 2nd/4th
Montour got a 1st
Dzingle got two 2nds
Boyle got a 2nd

We paid a 2nd for Plekanec, we also got two 2nds for Roman Polak. A late 1st and a 4th for Foligno @ 75% retention isn’t odd. Nor was Dubas the only one tabling a 1st for NF.

 

[zeke]

Okay but you just tried to make it seems like Foligno is a better producing player than Palmieri when he clearly isn't?

Saying you like him because he is a defensively responsible forward who adds grit/leadership is a fair take. Posting a bunch of offensive stats and then saying Foligno is better than Palmieri (inferring foligno is more productive) is not a fair take.

I don't think you would be trying to make the argument than Foligno is more productive than Palmieri if the leafs traded for Palmieri instead of Foligno.

Given their usage, their even strength production is pretty much a wash, and Palmieri is offense-only while Foligno is defense-first - not just "defensively responsible' but elite defensively, the key defensive leader in all the toughest defensive situations on a team that has been one of the best defensive teams in hockey.

the stats i posted should have struck home pretty clearly - this defensive used forward is pretty much as effective offensively at evens as that offensive forward is.

 

[Joey Hoser]

You see a positive because there is a higher chance top 10 talents drops to the late 1st round because of less scouting means the draft order won't be as set. It is definitely playing the odds but there is more chance this year of getting a really good prospect in the late 1st round than a normal year.

The way I'm looking at it, is that if I think I have a good scouting staff, then I'm not getting the benefit of having a good scouting staff because they can't do any scouting. The results are going to be more random and uncontrolled, and I would prefer it if my scouting team could do their good work.

 

[TheKule]

I would have preferred Palmieri, but very happy with Foligno. Serves a more pressing need, and didn't come with stinky Zajac.

A first is an overpay.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Given their usage, their even strength production is pretty much a wash, and Palmieri is offense-only while Foligno is defense-first - not just "defensively responsible' but elite defensively, the key defensive leader in all the toughest defensive situations on a team that has been one of the best defensive teams in hockey.

the stats i posted should have struck home pretty clearly - this defensive used forward is pretty much as effective offensively at evens as that offensive forward is.

Palmieri produced twice as many goals per 60 last year. That is not close to a wash. Goal scoring is worth way more as you said hundreds of times when Matthews signed his contract. Foligno numbers have also gotten progressively worse the last 3 years as you would expect for guys his age/style of play. How productive he was 3 years ago has little bearing on what he will produce now.

One of the reasons Foligno has such good defensive number is because of the system he plays in, he will put up far worse defensive numbers in Toronto's system and lets hope the other side of it happens though and he becomes more productive in a different system too.

 

[mix1home]

Did anyone in the thread already said “overpayment”? Because I for one think that 1st is too much. Like the player and all, but he is not worth it imho.

 

[zeke]

Palmieri produced twice as many goals per 60 last year. That is not close to a wash. Goal scoring is worth way more as you said hundreds of times when Matthews signed his contract. Foligno numbers have also gotten progressively worse the last 3 years as you would expect for guys his age/style of play. How productive he was 3 years ago has little bearing on what he will produce now.

One of the reasons Foligno has such good defensive number is because of the system he plays in, he will put up far worse defensive numbers in Toronto's system and lets hope the other side of it happens though and he becomes more productive in a different system too.

Toronto has been far better defensively than Columbus this year, of course.

And Foligno was never a passenger on columbus - he led their forwards in ice time every year and every playoffs and took the hardest matchups game in and game out.

and still produced as well as offense-only palmieri.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The way I'm looking at it, is that if I think I have a good scouting staff, then I'm not getting the benefit of having a good scouting staff because they can't do any scouting. The results are going to be more random and uncontrolled, and I would prefer it if my scouting team could do their good work.

Ya but the last picks in the 1st round are usually pretty random anyways so the increased likelihood of getting a top 15 talent this year with that later pick would be a net positive in my mind. Everyone thinks differently though

 

[Mulletman]

Ew Laine.
We have plenty of goal scorers. Why do you want another soft forward that's a liability in the defensive end?

Because Laine said he wanted to play for the Leafs before getting drafted in 2016. Winnipeg had no business drafting him. We should've had both the top 2 picks so we could've drafted both Matthews and Laine back then. Now would've been a perfect moment to correct that misfortune and set things right and it would've only cost a few picks to get the deal done.

 

[Duffman955]

Who cares about price.

We are trying to win the cup. Not rebuild till we all die.

We already have great prospect pool.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Toronto has been far better defensively than Columbus this year, of course.

And Foligno was never a passenger on columbus - he led their forwards in ice time every year and every playoffs and took the hardest matchups game in and game out.

and still produced as well as offense-only palmieri.

We are talking the past 3 years and you just said Columbus was one of the best defensive teams in hockey so not sure what that first line adds? Edit: ah your trying to say his defensive numbers won't drop this year on Toronto. We will see on that.

But he hasn't produced as well... He has produced less and less the last 3 years while producing half as many goals as Palmieri last year. Saying he produces as well as Palmieri is purposely inaccurate.

 

[The Iceman]

Breaking News
Torts is making the 1st round pick acquired from Toronto a healthy scratch

 

[ShaneFalco]

Who cares about price.

We are trying to win the cup. Not rebuild till we all die.

We already have great prospect pool.

Yup and this is def the time to go for it

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Since Dubas has arrived Leafs draft strategy has been to draft skill regardless of size, and then trade for need in terms of size, grit, leadership etc in Foligno.

Some people scream to this day about Leafs giving up and wasting late 2nds for vet rentals for Tomas Plekanec or Brian Boyle, for playoff runs help.

So when you then deal your 1st round pick for an aging rental player to obtain those traits you refuse to draft, or higher costs than have been frown upon in he past, then how does one square that if the cost is the same or more?

Under these pandemic rules our Leafs are never going to get a better opportunity at the Stanley Cup when you only need to beat 6 X CDN teams to make it to the final 4 then and 2 of 24 USA based ones at the Cup. If there was ever a year to go All-in then this is the one so perhaps that was a major management decision factor in the risk vs reward to help explain the sacrifice.. Lets just hope Leafs picked the right player in Foligno to do that, compared to the cost and availability of other players at this TD.

They did ... Foligno was always a leaf fan growing up in Sudbury ... i played up there a few seasons ... half town is French Habs and half town is English Leafs ... only town where both types get along well too ... i guess da drinking takes care of that .. never been more wasted as my time up there

 

[Guy Boucher]

I've tried watching some Columbus film and focus on #71. I'm...not impressed.

I will say they've played him a fair bit at C, so he's been hanging back rather than forechecking. But his mobility isn't great. I don't know. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[napoleon in rags]

Lots of talk about the value of late first round picks. I was curious about the type of players that have been picked over the last 15 or so years in the late first round. I arbitrarily used a cutoff of pick #25 and lower in the first round back to 2006, the year, ironically, in which Foligno was selected at #28.

Lots of duds but definitely some gems, e.g. Pasternak, Foligno, Berglund, Perron, Carlson, Palmieri, Ennis, B. Smith, Nelson, Coyle, Kuznetsov, Rakell, Namestnikov.

Using the 5 years from 2010 to 2006, the thirty players picked from 25-30 have played a total of 7,945 games; an average of 318 games. Games played, however, is asymmetric and skewed, so median is a better indication of how many games one gets out of a typical 25-30/31 pick. The median amount of games played for 25-30 picks in the years 2006 - 2010 is 140 games. (It's been a long time since I've indulged in stats, so feel free to correct me, admonish me, etc.)

Is Foligno worth a late first rounder? I honestly don't know.

Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
2020
25	Colorado	Justin Barron	D	Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL]
26	St. Louis	Jake Neighbours	L	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]
27	Anaheim	Jacob Perreault	R	Sarnia Sting [OHL]
28	Ottawa	Ridly Greig	C	Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]
29	Vegas	Brendan Brisson	F	Chicago Steel [USHL]
30	Dallas	Mavrick Bourque	C	Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]
31	San Jose	Ozzy Wiesblatt	R	Prince Albert Raiders [WHL]
2019
25	Washington	Connor McMichael	C	London Knights [OHL]	1	0	0	0	2	2020-21
26	Calgary	Jakob Pelletier	L	Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL]
27	Tampa Bay	Nolan Foote	L	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]
28	Carolina	Ryan Suzuki	C	Barrie Colts [OHL]
29	Anaheim	Brayden Tracey	L	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]
30	Boston	John Beecher	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]
31	Buffalo	Ryan Johnson	D	Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL]
2018
25	St. Louis	Dominik Bokk	L	Vaxjo HC [SweHL]
26	Ottawa	Jacob Bernard-Docker	D	Okotoks Oilers [AJHL]
27	Chicago	Nicolas Beaudin	D	Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL]	15	2	3	5	2	2020-21
28	NY Rangers	Nils Lundkvist	D	Lulea HF [SweHL]
29	Toronto	Rasmus Sandin	D	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	29	1	8	9	10	2020-21
30	Detroit	Joe Veleno	C	Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL]
31	Washington	Alexander Alexeyev	D	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
2017
25	Montreal	Ryan Poehling	C	St. Cloud State [NCHC]	28	4	1	5	4	2019-20
26	Dallas	Jake Oettinger	G	Boston University [H-East]	20	0	1	1	2	2020-21
27	Philadelphia	Morgan Frost	C	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	22	2	5	7	4	2020-21
28	Ottawa	Shane Bowers	C	Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL]
29	Chicago	Henri Jokiharju	D	Portland Winterhawks [WHL]	138	7	26	33	50	2020-21
30	Nashville	Eeli Tolvanen	R	Sioux City Musketeers [USHL]	38	11	10	21	4	2020-21
31	St. Louis	Klim Kostin	C	Moscow Dynamo [KHL]	4	1	0	1	0	2019-20
2016
25	Dallas	Riley Tufte	L	Fargo Force [USHL]
26	St. Louis	Tage Thompson	R	U. of Connecticut [H-East]	130	14	14	28	42	2020-21
27	Tampa Bay	Brett Howden	C	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	168	16	31	47	53	2020-21
28	Washington	Lucas Johansen	D	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]
29	Boston	Trent Frederic	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	53	4	1	5	70	2020-21
30	Anaheim	Sam Steel	C	Regina Pats [WHL]	118	16	27	43	34	2020-21
2015
25	Winnipeg	Jack Roslovic	C	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	215	34	61	95	28	2020-21
26	Montreal	Noah Juulsen	D	Everett Silvertips [WHL]	48	2	6	8	10	2020-21
27	Anaheim	Jacob Larsson	D	Frolunda Jrs. (Sweden)	148	2	17	19	40	2020-21
28	NY Islanders	Anthony Beauvillier	L	Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]	319	74	68	142	57	2020-21
29	Columbus	Gabriel Carlsson	D	Linkopings Jrs. (Sweden)	36	1	5	6	12	2020-21
30	Arizona	Nick Merkley	R	Kelowna Rockets [WHL]	20	3	5	8	4	2020-21
2014
25	Boston	David Pastrnak	R	Sodertalje SK [Swe-1]	422	196	215	411	189	2020-21
26	Montreal	Nikita Scherbak	R	Saskatoon Blades [WHL]	37	6	2	8	10	2018-19
27	San Jose	Nikolay Goldobin	R	Sarnia Sting [OHL]	125	19	27	46	24	2019-20
28	NY Islanders	Josh Ho-Sang	R	Windsor Spitfires [OHL]	53	7	17	24	20	2018-19
29	Los Angeles	Adrian Kempe	C	MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL]	296	54	71	125	152	2020-21
30	New Jersey	John Quenneville	C	Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]	42	2	3	5	6	2019-20
2013
25	Montreal	Michael McCarron	R	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	74	2	6	8	126	2020-21
26	Anaheim	Shea Theodore	D	Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL]	301	42	117	159	101	2020-21
27	Columbus	Marko Dano	C	Bratislava Slovan [KHL]	141	19	26	45	49	2019-20
28	Calgary	Morgan Klimchuk	L	Regina Pats [WHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2017-18
29	Dallas	Jason Dickinson	C	Guelph Storm [OHL]	206	23	35	58	58	2020-21
30	Chicago	Ryan Hartman	R	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	349	57	69	126	312	2020-21
2012
25	St. Louis	Jordan Schmaltz	D	Green Bay Gamblers [USHL]	42	0	5	5	12	2018-19
26	Vancouver	Brendan Gaunce	C	Belleville Bulls [OHL]	118	6	10	16	47	2019-20
27	Phoenix	Henrik Samuelsson	C	Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL]	3	0	0	0	2	2014-15
28	NY Rangers	Brady Skjei	D	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	354	26	94	120	198	2020-21
29	New Jersey	Stefan Matteau	L	U.S. National Development Team [USHL]	81	5	5	10	39	2020-21
30	Los Angeles	Tanner Pearson	L	Barrie Colts [OHL]	490	114	112	226	156	2020-21
2011
25	Toronto	Stuart Percy	D	Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL]	12	0	3	3	2	2015-16
26	Chicago	Phillip Danault	C	Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL]	377	54	141	195	172	2020-21
27	Tampa Bay	Vladislav Namestnikov	C	London Knights [OHL]	466	89	113	202	243	2020-21
28	Minnesota	Zack Phillips	C	Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]
29	Vancouver	Nicklas Jensen	R	Oshawa Generals [OHL]	31	3	3	6	10	2016-17
30	Anaheim	Rickard Rakell	L	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	485	136	169	305	104	2020-21
2010
25	Florida	Quinton Howden	C	Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL]	97	10	7	17	30	2016-17
26	Washington	Evgeny Kuznetsov	C	Chelyabinsk Traktor [KHL]	511	127	283	410	258	2020-21
27	Phoenix	Mark Visentin	G	Niagara IceDogs [OHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2013-14
28	San Jose	Charlie Coyle	C	South Shore Kings [EJHL]	608	114	185	299	229	2020-21
29	Anaheim	Emerson Etem	R	Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]	173	22	24	46	30	2016-17
30	NY Islanders	Brock Nelson	C	Warroad H.S. [Minn.]	590	165	155	320	213	2020-21
2009
25	Boston	Jordan Caron	R	Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL]	157	12	16	28	78	2015-16
26	Anaheim	Kyle Palmieri	R	U.S. National Under-18 Team [Ind]	598	184	172	356	306	2020-21
27	Carolina	Philippe Paradis	L	Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL]
28	Chicago	Dylan Olsen	D	Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL]	124	5	17	22	36	2015-16
29	Tampa Bay	Carter Ashton	R	Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL]	54	0	3	3	32	2014-15
30	Pittsburgh	Simon Despres	D	Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL]	193	6	37	43	150	2016-17
2008
25	Calgary	Greg Nemisz	C	Windsor Spitfires [OHL]	15	0	1	1	0	2011-12
26	Buffalo	Tyler Ennis	L	Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL]	641	136	186	322	208	2020-21
27	Washington	John Carlson	D	Indiana Ice [USHL]	799	115	398	513	268	2020-21
28	Phoenix	Viktor Tikhonov	L	Cherepovets Severstal [Russia]	111	11	11	22	40	2015-16
29	Atlanta	Daultan Leveille	C	St. Catharines Falcons [GHJHL]
30	Detroit	Tom McCollum	G	Guelph Storm [OHL]	3	0	0	0	0	2014-15
2007
25	Vancouver	Patrick White	C	Tri-City Storm [USHL]
26	St. Louis	David Perron	L	Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL]	891	236	354	590	668	2020-21
27	Detroit	Brendan Smith	D	St. Michael's Buzzers [OPJHL]	512	27	80	107	560	2020-21
28	San Jose	Nick Petrecki	D	Omaha Lancers [USHL]	1	0	0	0	0	2012-13
29	Ottawa	Jim O'Brien	C	U. of Minnesota [WCHA]	77	8	5	13	16	2017-18
30	Phoenix	Nick Ross	D	Regina Pats [WHL]
2006
25	St. Louis	Patrik Berglund	C	Vasteras IK [Swe-1]	717	170	156	326	248	2018-19
26	Calgary	Leland Irving	G	Everett Silvertips [WHL]	13	0	1	1	0	2012-13
27	Dallas	Ivan Vishnevskiy	D	Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL]	5	0	2	2	2	2009-10
28	Ottawa	Nick Foligno	L	Sudbury Wolves [OHL]	950	203	279	482	765	2020-21
29	Phoenix	Chris Summers	D	US National Under 18 Team	70	2	7	9	51	2015-16
30	New Jersey	Matt Corrente	D	Saginaw Spirit [OHL]	34	0	6	6	68	2010-11

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Confucius]

Because Laine said he wanted to play for the Leafs before getting drafted in 2016. Winnipeg had no business drafting him. We should've had both the top 2 picks so we could've drafted both Matthews and Laine back then. Now would've been a perfect moment to correct that misfortune and set things right and it would've only cost a few picks to get the deal done.

His qualifying offer is 7.5, then we would have 5 guys pushing 50 million. lol. Not to mention we cant have a guy that just shoots. It would only be a game or two when other players start shirking the hard unappreciated work. Points are all that matters: not.