Rumor: TOR and John Tavares close to a deal: 3 years at 7 million

[ToneDog]

He has played well in his contract year. I expect him to regress at the tail end of his career

I expect him to regress once he signs an extension or games 83+.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Nothing would say "we have no respect for our fans" more than bringing this loser back.

They shouldn't re-sign him for any price. A culture change needs to take place. Moving on from Tavares would be a good step in that direction.

Tavares was Dubas' biggest mistake.

Does Treliving really want to repeat that tragedy. This is his opportunity to finally put his stamp on the team. To give it a makeover into the way he thinks it should be built.

If they're gonna keep doing the same thing they could have just kept Dubas.

Wtf is Treliving even good for. Is signing injured and washed up defensemen all he's allowed to do. We were sold on him being someone who wasn't afraid to make the big move.

Another wannabe celebrity GM more interested in kissing the players butts than winning.

 

[Americanadian]

Tavares playoff numbers since joining the Leafs: 38 GP, 12G, 24P
Bennett playoff numbers last 2 years: 39 GP, 12G, 29P

Bennett will be 29 to start next season, Tavares will be 35. Only one player made team Canada. It seemed like a no-brainer that Bennett would be paid more per year, not so much anymore.

 

[hamzarocks]

Tavares playoff numbers since joining the Leafs: 38 GP, 12G, 24P
Bennett playoff numbers last 2 years: 39 GP, 12G, 29P

Bennett will be 29 to start next season, Tavares will be 35. Only one player made team Canada. It seemed like a no-brainer that Bennett would be paid more per year, not so much anymore.

Ideally we coukd have Bennett at 7 years 8M and Tavares at 3 years 4.5M which works to 12.5M and is only 1.5M increase on what we pay JT now

Giving JT 7M will price up Bennett to 9M if we want him and thats already 16M between the two which at 8M avg AAV they won't deliver on

 

[kevsh]

This is so bad, Treliving appears to be out lunch like the last guy

I think it's more that he got the job because he understood what his role will be at MLSE: Give the core whatever they want - essentially keep them here and keep them happy - and try to build a winning team around them.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Man hes been garbage in the playoffs for us for his whole leaf career

Super worried him at 7M as the 2C for ages 35-37 year old season

if we dont win a cup in the next 3 seasons we will have a 10+ year rebuild coming up

I don't think you understand the Toronto Maple Leafs, they are ALWAYS rebuilding.

This is the 100 year plan. We can and we will!

 

[weems]

This is so bad, Treliving appears to be out lunch like the last guy

Possibly or maybe Shanahan has been more in charge than we previously thought.

I mean when Dubas left, if you had told Leafs nation that midway through the 2025 season, we'd still have the AM/MM/WN/JT/MR core, not many people would have believed it.

 

[Americanadian]

Ideally we coukd have Bennett at 7 years 8M and Tavares at 3 years 4.5M which works to 12.5M and is only 1.5M increase on what we pay JT now

Giving JT 7M will price up Bennett to 9M if we want him and thats already 16M between the two which at 8M avg AAV they won't deliver on

With JT at 7M the Leafs can't afford any new impact players.

Assuming 27M for Marner/Knies/Tavares you're looking at:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Tavares-Nylander
X-Domi-Jarnkrok
X-Kampf-Reaves

McCabe-Tanev
Rielly-Myers
OEL-Benoit

Stolarz
Woll

Dead cap: 0.727M

Cap space remaining: 6.27M

 

[notbias]

Kadri 7x7 (expires at 38)
Huberdeau 10.5x8 (expires at 38)
Giordano 6.75x6 (expired at 38)
Tanev 4.5x6 (expires at 40)

Our entire top 4 will expire at 35+.

There are other examples of players being signed to decent-sized contracts that all expire at 35+.

This seems in line with Treliving not thinking players fall off with age.

I think it's more that he got the job because he understood what his role will be at MLSE: Give the core whatever they want - essentially keep them here and keep them happy - and try to build a winning team around them.

Don't want the contract at 7x3, to be honest, I think it is too rich for what could be a lower-end 2C shortly.

But this is not new for Treliving, I don't think many people have looked at Calgary if they think it is.

 

[hamzarocks]

With JT at 7M the Leafs can't afford any new impact players.

Assuming 27M for Marner/Knies/Tavares you're looking at:

Knies-Matthews-Marner
McMann-Tavares-Nylander
X-Domi-Jarnkrok
X-Kampf-Reaves

McCabe-Tanev
Rielly-Myers
OEL-Benoit

Stolarz
Woll

Dead cap: 0.727M

Cap space remaining: 6.27M

Sucks that cap % rising wont really be impactful for us as our players keep signing high cap % deals and so we dont benefit as much as other teams who have good core players locked up long term and get to see their AAV % decline vs go up/maintain in rising cap world.

They also dont perform like 13.25M, 11.5M, 11M, and likely 13M+ players in the reg season consistently let alone playoffs when they give maybe 65% of that collective value.

If the cap is at 110M in 2029 it doesnt benefit us that much as we have 30+ year old core guys who will be starting to decline so the type of players we need to bring in will need to be higher end core level players vs supporting secondary players.

 

[The Shadow]

If it was cheaper I’d say sure. Even as third liner at $5 million is great.

But how much patience would a top contender have running back the same losing core for 7-8 years

 

[darrylsittler27]

He has played well in his contract year. I expect him to regress at the tail end of his career

They all play well right before the contract . Most then regress. He will not be as good for the next 3 years. 7 million for a 3rd line C is why Toronto won't win and if a very good C becomes available we won't have the cap. More and more this regime burns it's bridges.

 

[Americanadian]

Sucks that cap % rising wont really be impactful for us as our players keep signing high cap % deals and so we dont benefit as much as other teams who have good core players locked up long term and get to see their AAV % decline vs go up/maintain in rising cap world.

They also dont perform like 13.25M, 11.5M, 11M, and likely 13M+ players in the reg season consistently let alone playoffs when they give maybe 65% of that collective value.

If the cap is at 110M in 2029 it doesnt benefit us that much as we have 30+ year old core guys who will be starting to decline so the type of players we need to bring in will need to be hifher end core level players vs supporting secondary players.

And people will still find a way to defend it.

 

[darrylsittler27]

If these players want to be here, why do we overpay for failing?

 

[LeafEgo]

Issues I'd have with the contract aside, I think it's a simple fact they don't have anyone to replace him and there isn't much in the UFA market at C which should drive up those players prices with an increased cap.

Maintaining an agile posture is imperative for the Leafs leading into this offseason.

There isn't much risk holding off on JT, it's unlikely he gets frustrated and plays hardball or shuts the door.

 

[hamzarocks]

And people will still find a way to defend it.

Its a shame but yeah that is the truth.

We are basically at the point our entire plan is needing the core 4/5 to deliver 20-25 playoff games at a level they never have to be successful.

There is not much help coming in the next 2-4 years

There won't be much cap available this year so similar type roster will be ran back with a few bottom 6 upgrades (Tanev's brotber at 3M likely being one of them)

This era is getting to point of exhaustion. A contending team should not have so little future assets and have so many issues/troubles in the playoffs regularly over a large sample size.

Big time contenders who sold a shit ton of futures but had a lot of success would be:

2009-2017 Hawks --> very lengthy and painful post cups period from 2018 to now. But they had 3 cups and 5 WCF runs. They drafted at an elite level even with late 1sts or 2nd/3rd rounders who played big roles in their cups.

2008 - 2017 Pens --> they extended playoff run to 2022 but very painful last 3 years and another 3-5 more painful years are likely the price for trading so many assets to contend for 3 cups. A lot of shrewd NCAA signings/draftings helped them as well.

2006 - 2019 Sharks (no cups but a lot of deep runs) --> extremely bleak time from 2020 to now, with rebuild only now looking better though still another 2-3 years of pain to come

2009 - 2015 Kings --> sold a lot of prime assets got 2 Cups and WCF run. 2016 -2021 they sucked mostly and only made playoffs once. Had a very medicore period after the cups.

Majority of heavy contenders win cup(s) or have numerous deep runs but the next 4-8 years following that is rebuilding.

The only team who I can think that avoided that is tampa as they contended heavy from 2014 to 2022 and now are still a playoff team but they can likely be a Pens case where in 2-3 years they really suck for a good half decade +

The leafs not retooling in 2021, 2023, last summer + possibly extending 16 and 91 just results in a lengthy 5-8 year rebuild window from 2030 onwards.

 

[Americanadian]

Its a shame but yeah that is the truth.

We are basically at the point our entire plan is needing the core 4/5 to deliver 20-25 playoff games at a level they never have to be successful.

There is not much help coming in the next 2-4 years

There won't be much cap available this year so similar type roster will be ran back with a few bottom 6 upgrades (Tanev's brotber at 3M likely being one of them)

This era is getting to point of exhaustion. A contending team should not have so little future assets and have so many issues/troubles in the playoffs regularly over a large sample size.

Big time contenders who sold a shit ton of futures but had a lot of success would be:


2009-2017 Hawks --> very lengthy and painful post cups period from 2018 to now

2008 - 2017 Pens --> they extended playoff run to 2022 but very painful last 3 years and another 3-5 more painful years are likely the price for trading so many assets to contend for 3 cups

2006 - 2019 Sharks (no cups but a lot of deep runs) --> extremely bleak time from 2020 to now, with rebuild only now looking better though still another 2-3 years of pain to come

2009 - 2015 Kings --> sold a lot of prime assets got 2 Cups and WCF run. 2016 -2021 they sucked mostly and only made playoffs once. Had a very medicore period after the cups.

Majority of heavy contenders win cup(s) or have numerous deep runs but the next 4-8 years following that is rebuilding.

The only team who I can think that avoided that is tampa as they contended heavy from 2014 to 2022 and now are still a playoff team but they can likely be a Pens case where in 2-3 years they really suck for a good half decade +

The leafs not retooling in 2021, 2023, last summer + possibly extending 16 and 91 just results in a lengthy 5-8 year rebuild window from 2030 onwards.

They ultimately were hurt most by the timing of the GM contracts. If Dubas has a year under his belt or Lou is still in charge during the summer of 2018 the Leafs probably don't get fleeced by Nylander/Marner/Matthews.

If Tre has a year with the team or Dubas is still in charge during the summer of 2023 they probably move 1 of Nylander/Marner/Matthews before the NMC's kick in.

Shanahan was around for the entire thing and he will ultimately be the face of this failure from the front office.

 

[notbias]

Sucks that cap % rising wont really be impactful for us as our players keep signing high cap % deals and so we dont benefit as much as other teams who have good core players locked up long term and get to see their AAV % decline vs go up/maintain in rising cap world.

They also dont perform like 13.25M, 11.5M, 11M, and likely 13M+ players in the reg season consistently let alone playoffs when they give maybe 65% of that collective value.

If the cap is at 110M in 2029 it doesnt benefit us that much as we have 30+ year old core guys who will be starting to decline so the type of players we need to bring in will need to be higher end core level players vs supporting secondary players.

All we have to do is pray that our players don't play up to their potential right before they sign a contract and we can get the same value too, just like Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Draisaitl, Marchand, and more did on their sweetheart deals.

We are basically at the point our entire plan is needing the core 4/5 to deliver 20-25 playoff games at a level they never have to be successful.

They have, just not collectively or consistently.

Our core has proven they can have great series, they just need to be consistent in doing it.

Our depth scoring is always the biggest issue.

"something, something, no money for depth scoring"

We spend the same as most teams, our goalies are very cheap.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Any kind of continuation of this core is a regrettable move if we're out early again

 

[MarMarSab3]

Possibly or maybe Shanahan has been more in charge than we previously thought.

I mean when Dubas left, if you had told Leafs nation that midway through the 2025 season, we'd still have the AM/MM/WN/JT/MR core, not many people would have believed it.

Valid point

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Leafland, where bad news is good news. Yuk. We haven't won a round
yet and no one but Toronto would pay him that.

I would argue that we've won a round.

 

[HolyCrap]

JT must have a vid of Rogers fondling a goat , why else would they pay this loser 7m per .

hopefully the rumor is false

Yuck that would be embarrassing. A sheep is much more appealing.

 

[WTFMAN99]

The 4th period hasn't really gotten anything right with Toronto lately.

I like JT but it is a thanks but no thanks at that price and term.

I think my max is something like 2 years 6M per, ideally with deferrals to reduce the cap hit artificially further.

It's a nice roster that'll get you to the playoffs and do absolutely nothing else.

 

[Menzinger]

Tavares playoff numbers since joining the Leafs: 38 GP, 12G, 24P
Bennett playoff numbers last 2 years: 39 GP, 12G, 29P

Bennett will be 29 to start next season, Tavares will be 35. Only one player made team Canada. It seemed like a no-brainer that Bennett would be paid more per year, not so much anymore.

What if Bennet doesn't want to sign in Toronto?

 

[thusk]

Tavares playoff numbers since joining the Leafs: 38 GP, 12G, 24P
Bennett playoff numbers last 2 years: 39 GP, 12G, 29P

Bennett will be 29 to start next season, Tavares will be 35. Only one player made team Canada. It seemed like a no-brainer that Bennett would be paid more per year, not so much anymore.

That's just showing Bennett created an amaizing chemistry with Tkachuk, Bennett on previous 2 without Tkachuk, 2 goal 8 pts in 15 games
goal decreasing of at 40%
Pts decreasing at 59%

Wich version of Bennett leafs would get by signing him?!?!?!

And in regular season their production are just no even close.

2- Absolutly nothing would guarantee Bennett would want to sign in Toronto. The fact Bennett is an ontario guy doesn't mean they will want to play in the market... And i know its something people will don't like but the way Marner been treated last summer will not help to convince player to come in Toronto. Before thinking about with team theywant to play in, they must think about wich city they want to live in.

So do you put all your eggs in Bennett with high risk he don't have interest to come in Toronto outside of being overpay?!?!?! And you don't even know wich version of Bennett you will see and if