Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 6

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Except in the case of Johnny Bower (for whom something funny might have been going on), I think the above list does a fair job of ranking these goalies by their peaks. Considering longevity and consistency, I have no problem with putting Brodeur ahead of Parent, Sawchuk and Dryden (and of course, Bower), but for where they all look as peak performers, I like it.

First of all, great work. Between your posts, and BM67's post that IMO more or less proved that Brodeur at least was a factor in his team taking fewer penalties (something I don't think your posts really account for, but that's a really tough thing to account for), Brodeur is definitely joining Hall and the two Soviets in my top 5; likely to be joined by either Sakic, Clarke, or Esposito.

Regarding Johnny Bower, there absolutely was something funny going on there - Toronto was officially crediting more shots against than other teams, which is absurd when you think about how played there and their style of play. Note this would probably affect a few years of Sawchuk too...

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

Clarke's defensive advantage over Yzerman is smaller than Yzerman's offensive advantage over Clarke. Their leadership is about even (Yzeman slightly ahead), and their classiness is incomparable.

yzerman has more teeth too.

otoh, clarke's curls were more honest

 

[blogofmike]

Manipulated Save Percentage - and how it applies to Sawchuk, Hall and especially Brodeur - Part II

Let me start by posting the table from the end of part 1:

Ken Dryden	0.9338
Dominik Hasek	0.9319
Tony Esposito	0.9292
Patrick Roy	0.9291
Bernie Parent	0.9264
Martin Brodeur after adjustments	0.9231
Glenn Resch	0.9229
John Vanbiesbrouck	0.922
Jacques Plante	0.9209
Johnny Bower	0.92
Ed Belfour	0.9199
Roberto Luongo	0.9196
Dan Bouchard	0.9194
Real life Martin Brodeur	0.9191
Glenn Hall	0.9188
Tom Barrasso	0.9186
Curtis Joseph	0.9184
Tomas Vokoun	0.9178
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9175
Rogie Vachon	0.9168
Sean Burke	0.9167
Kelly Hrudey	0.9167
Andy Moog	0.9166
Terry Sawchuk	0.9033

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This table contains the top-23 all-time in peak adjusted save percentage, plus Terry Sawchuk, and a fairly adjusted Martin Brodeur. But I'm just getting started!

Take a look at numbers 1, 3, 5, and 7 on this list - all 1970s goalies. Watered down talent pool thanks to the WHA and fast expansion. Sure, they were great goalies, but comparing them to the league average save percentage really overstates their greatness.

Then, take a look at 9, 10, 15, and... I don't know, 155? Plante, Bower, Hall and Sawchuk were the best statistical goalies of their time but none of them can top the adjusted results of the 1970s goalies. They had to compete against a league average that was usually a HHOF goalie like Worsley, Sawchuk, or Lumley - that's not fair or right. Now I know HO had a system and it's completely sound mathematically and I respect things like that, but anyone who has known me long enough knows I am a fan of fudging and manipulating numbers subjectively to help them "look" right, and this is a case where that is necessary.

First of all, poor Terry Sawchuk. He's taking a kicking in this discussion, and maybe rightfully so, but his peak was hella dominant, and the save percentage era doesn't cover any of that. His first five seasons are probably his best five, and none of them are counted here because they predate regular season save percentage - also, one Jacques Plante season is missing. If I could just find a way to simulate save percentage for five seasons, then the entire careers of two top-6 goalies of all-time would be covered....

...so I did that. This is by no means an exact science, but there is enough information to use to make educated guesses. The NHL of 1950-55 was very similar to the NHL of 1956-60. We had a situation where one team was the best, and they also had the consensus best goalie. We can be certain that he had a very dominant save percentage, but also certain that his dominant team was surrendering fewer shots than the league average. And the total number of league goals was quite consistent from 1950 right through 1957, so you can expect that the total shots taken would have been as well. As it turned out, while I was manipulating the figures, I had to walk a fine line between making the league's SOG/60 averages abnormally low, and pumping up the league's average sv% to abnormally high figures. I ended up with league average save percentages of 91.01, 91.38, 91.84, 91.76, and 91.44.

I then assigned Sawchuk a workload in each season similar to what Jacques Plante, starter on the most dominant team from 1956-1960 had, and from there gave him save percentages of .9266, .9293, .9300, .9295, and .9298. I believe this is consistent with a goalie who would win the 1st or 2nd all-star team spot in each of these seasons. This was also quite conservative, because out of all pre-expansion 50-game seasons, these were just the 11th, 14th, 17th, 25th and 26th best seasons posted by any goalie. Then again, Plante had 5 in that range, Hall had 7, Bower had 4 and Worsley had 3 (and Giacomin and Hodge one apiece), so that seems fair. Still, I'm revisiting this, because intuitively, Sawchuk was thought to have the best peak of the era... doesn't mean he needs to put up all of the best five seasons ever, but his best placing higher than 11th would be a start.

(ten minutes later)... took a look at those seasons and noticed that scoring was 10% higher in 56-60 than it was in 51-55, so since I have no idea if it was because goalies were stopping more shots, or there were fewer shots, I manipulated shot totals to the point where they were 50% responsible, and save percentages accounted for the rest.

As you can imagine, this did wonders for Sawchuk's adjusted save percentage. I'd show you, but that was an intermediate step and I didn't save that step like I did for Brodeur.

The next major manipulation I did, was to subjectively change the "league average" save percentages every season to better reflect the competition level among goalies. I didn't go by any special formula, I simply went case-by-case.

In 1951-1955, I bumped the average down similar to how I did in 1956-1967 (see below)
In 1956-1967, I bumped the league average down to be approximately in-between the lowest starting goalie and the 2nd-lowest. This is done so that adjusted SP now shows how a goalie compared to the 5th-6th best goalie, instead of the 3rd-4th (which makes a world of difference)
In 1968-1972, I did nothing. There were 12 teams and a platoon system, so plenty of decent goalies with only one major league to play in. The league was not watered down. (Competition level by division is an issue, but adjusting for that would likely be a nightmare)
In 1973-1979, I bumped the league average up to be approximately 1/3 of the way up the list instead of right in the middle. The league expanded too quickly, and the best WHA goalies could have played in the NHL, keeping the really bad ones (who hurt the league average) out of games. Goalies compared to this horrible league average look too good.
In 1980-2018, I did nothing. There have been 21-31 teams, the NHL was again the only top pro league, and if you want to say it was watered down in the first half of the 80's, I wouldn't disagree, but it was nothing compared to the mid-late 70s. In 1985, in theory the worst goalie in the league was the 42nd best in north america. In 1977, the 60th best north american goalie could get playing time in the NHL.

This had the effect of making Plante, Hall, Sawchuk and Bower look better - and it should. They were not that dominant compared to the league average, only because the league average was an impossibly high standard. It also had the effect of making Dryden, Espo, Resch, Parent and Vachon look worse - and again, it should. They tore apart a severely weakened NHL with a league average baseline influenced by some truly terrible goalies.

(in the meantime I managed to make it so that Sawchuk had the 5th, 9th, 20th, and 25th best seasons posted by any goalie before the lockout, better appreciating his early peak while still being conservative).

After all that, here is what I got:

Dominik Hasek	0.9319
Jacques Plante	0.9303
Johnny Bower	0.9294
Patrick Roy	0.9291
Ken Dryden	0.9284
Glenn Hall	0.9283
Tony Esposito	0.9262
Terry Sawchuk after Adjustments	0.9257
Bernie Parent	0.9234
Martin Brodeur after adjustments	0.9231
John Vanbiesbrouck	0.922
Glenn Resch	0.9203
Ed Belfour	0.9199
Roberto Luongo	0.9196
Dan Bouchard	0.9194
Real life Martin Brodeur	0.9191
Tom Barrasso	0.9186
Curtis Joseph	0.9184
Tomas Vokoun	0.9178
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9175
Sean Burke	0.9167
Kelly Hrudey	0.9167
Andy Moog	0.9166
Rogie Vachon	0.9128
Real life Terry Sawchuk	0.9033

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Note that the modern goalies show up at 1, 4, 10, 11. The pre-expansion guys are at 2, 3, 6, and 8. The 70s guys are 5, 7, 9, 12. I think that after these adustments that reflect how difficult their benchmarks were to hit, the fact that they are sprinked among the top-12 with a fairly even distribution tells us that this manipulated adjusted save percentage does treat all goalies equally, by not treating their eras as equal.

This is completely subjective. But you must agree that when Gump Worsley and Terry Sawchuk are league average goalies, that's not the same as when Wayne Stephenson and Doug Favell are league average.

Except in the case of Johnny Bower (for whom something funny might have been going on), I think the above list does a fair job of ranking these goalies by their peaks. Considering longevity and consistency, I have no problem with putting Brodeur ahead of Parent, Sawchuk and Dryden (and of course, Bower), but for where they all look as peak performers, I like it.

Might want to save that PPOA adjustment formula for when Parent shows up looking at how many penalties the Flyers took.

Looking at post 76 Clarke you can see a lot of PP goals being racked up once Parent is winding down or gone. It made the Leafs a challenge and the Isles nearly unkillable if you spot them a game where they get 5 PP goals (and 1 SHG) and none at ES.

The 77-79 period looks rough. Clarke eats 37 minuses in 30 playoff games. Lazy 1-way Phil Esposito played 30 playoff games in New York and was on for 26 minuses.

The - 11 Clarke got against the Esposito Rangers looks particularly painful. Probably unfair to let Shero coach the other team there.

 

[ChiTownPhilly]

Clarke also was the best player on his team during his entire career.

Another matter I'll have to clear up- owing to the advantage that I had eyes on-the-scene at the time...

1973-74: which season would you rather have for your team? The Clarke season- or the Parent season?? It's Parent- and (to me) it's not particularly close. That year, Bernie had one of Hockey's All-Time-Great goaltender seasons. Look it up. Transcendent in the Regular Season; transcendent in the Playoffs. Had more to do with their success that year than anybody. 1974-75 is a closer call, mostly because Clarke is better than he was the year before- but Parent was awesome once again-- 2nd in Save Percentage (behind HoFer Vachon's statistically-best year)... but keep in mind that his was a team that was well below league average in Power Play Opportunities for, and broke the counter for Power Play Opportunities against. Knocked down (another) Smythe in the Postseason.

I really weary of this "heart-and-soul-of-team/best-player-on-back-to-back-Cup-winner" trope (or tripe) [or, since it's Philly, maybe I should say "sCRAPple"] that's attached to the guy. When Parent's Supernova burnt out, the Flyers stopped winning Cups.

Clarke never enjoyed playing for a dynasty either. Won 3 Harts in the same time frame as Orr, Lafleur and Espo.

Not intended as a critique, because I have confidence that present company understands this... but Clarke's Harts were awarded to him on the literal "most-valuable-to-his-team" model. [And, as has been illustrated above, even that's subject to considerable question.]

In the case of at least two of his three Harts, he was not the best player in the League.

 

[sr edler]

Of course Makarov outlasted Bossy, had a strong 1987 Canada Cup and when the chance to play in the NHL arrived he added a few solid seasons of being Hakan Loob.

Loob at his best was a 1st Team All-Star at RW though.

 

[blogofmike]

Loob at his best was a 1st Team All-Star at RW though.

There is definitely value in being Hakan Loob. I drew a really easy line from 89 Loob to 90 Makarov as they have very similar numbers and Makarov took his spot.

No real ulterior motive there, though I avoided the best in his age group line because I hate it. Expand his age group 1 year and the advantage goes away thanks to a Flames RW who obviously played in a comparable situation.

 

[Batis]

Sergei Makarov

One caveat off the bat, is that I don’t see the Soviet League stats translating very well to the NHL context. The Red Army was usually stacked.

1988-89 with Green Unit: 30-8-6, 224 GF / 118 GA
1989-90 with 0.5 of a Kasatonov: 33-9-6, 200 GF / 106 GA

That being said, in the 1981 and 1984 Canada Cups, Makarov and Bossy seemed to be of comparable quality. Of course Makarov outlasted Bossy, had a strong 1987 Canada Cup and when the chance to play in the NHL arrived he added a few solid seasons of being Hakan Loob.

I think Bossy did things that impress me a little more often than Makarov. (See: the playoffs 1980-83). But Makarov is in an odd place where you could liken him to Mike Tyson. Tyson had fewer good opponents in his heyday, but he dominated them with early knockouts. You can only punch the guys they put in front of you right? While I’m currently leaning towards this logic that puts Makarov high, that logic also works for Frank McGee. And in this case he was outscored by Fetisov at the Olympics 33-28 over 22 games, and wasn’t perennially the team’s top scorer at the IIHF World Championships. That’s not too dissimilar from Bossy in the playoffs though, and her certainly passed the eye/stats tests in best-on-best settings.

Well Makarov did still lead those stacked CSKA Moscow teams in points per game during every single season of the 80's and in actual points produced every season but one (in 82/83 when he finished 3rd on the team despite only playing in 30 of the 44 games). Leading a dynasty level team in points per game for 10 straight years is in itself extremely impressive in my opinion.

I would also say that only calling Makarovs performance at the 1987 Canada Cup strong is selling it somewhat short considering that it in my opinion was the most impressive Canada Cup performance from any of these two players (Makarov and Bossy). And speaking about stacked teams and the Canada Cup it should probably be pointed out that Bossy on those versions of Team Canada got to play on even more stacked line-ups than Makarov ever did. And while Bossy did not play with Gretzky at even strenght he did spend time with him on the powerplay. At the Canada Cups Makarov therefore had to carry more of his teams offence than Bossy did and over the course of his Canada Cup career Makarov contributed to 31.31 % of his teams goals while Bossy contributed to 27.03 % of his teams goals. Thanks to Theokritos for providing this % data for Makarov during the Wingers project. I did the same for Bossy now to compare them.

Sergei Makarov

1981
USSR scored 33 goals
Makarov: 3g+6a=9 points (in 7 games)
→contributing to 27.27 % of the goals

1984
USSR scored 24 goals
Makarov: 6g+1a=7 points (in 6 games)
→contributing to 29.17 % of the goals

1987
USSR scored 42 goals
Makarov: 7g+8a=15 points (in 9 games)
→contributing to 35.71 % of the goals

Overall
USSR scored 99 goals
Makarov: 16g+15a=31 points (in 22 games)
→contributing to 31.31 % of the goals

Mike Bossy

1981
Canada scored 37 goals
Bossy: 8g+3a=11 points (in 7 games)
→contributing to 29.73 % of the goals

1984
Canada scored 37 goals
Bossy: 5g+4a=9 points (in 8 games)
→contributing to 24.32 % of the goals

Overall
Canada scored 74 goals
Bossy: 13g+7a=20 points (in 15 games)
→contributing to 27.03 % of the goals

Additionally Bossy did most of his Canada Cup scoring during the group stage while Makarov overall increased his scoring pace during the knockout stage.

At the group stage of Canada Cup competition:
Makarov: 15 gp, 12 g, 8 a, 20 pts (1.333 PPG)
Bossy: 10 gp, 10 g, 5 a, 15 pts (1.500 PPG)

At the knockout stage of Canada Cup competition:
Makarov: 7 gp, 4 g, 7 a, 11 pts (1.571 PPG)
Bossy: 5 gp, 3 g, 2 a, 5 pts (1.000 PPG)

Overall at Canada Cup competition:
Makarov: 22 gp, 16 g, 15 a, 31 pts (1.409 PPG)
Bossy: 15 gp, 13 g, 7 a, 20 pts (1.333 PPG)

And as mentioned earlier Makarov did all of this offensively while also being asked to shut down the opponents powerplay units. Something he did admirably as he in the 18 available games on video from his Canada Cup career was in on as many shorthanded goals forward as he was in on powerplay goals against while being one of the most used Soviet forwards on the penalty kill during each of his 3 Canada Cup tournaments.

Canada Cup 1981
1. Vladimir Golikov: 4 gp: 8 min, 23 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
2. Sergey Shepelev: 4 gp: 7 min, 27 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
2. Victor Shalimov: 4 gp: 7 min, 24 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
4. Sergey Makarov: 4 gp: 6 min, 15 sec: 1 goal forward, 2 goals against
5. Viktor Zhluktov: 4 gp: 6 min, 7 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
6. Irek Gimaev: 3 gp: 5 min, 28 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
7. Vladimir Krutov: 4 gp: 4 min, 58 sec: 1 goal forward, 2 goals against
7. Alexander Skvortsov: 4 gp: 4 min, 58 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
9. Alexander Maltsev: 1 gp: 2 min, 38 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
10. Nikolay Drozdetsky: 4 gp: 1 min, 45 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
11. Igor Larionov: 4 gp: 0 min, 4 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against

Canada Cup 1984
1. Sergey Makarov: 6 gp: 8 min, 59 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
2. Vladimir Krutov: 6 gp: 8 min 38 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
3. Anatoly Semenov: 6 gp: 8 min, 19 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
4. Sergey Svetlov: 6 gp: 7 min, 50 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
5. Alexander Skvortsov: 6 gp: 7 min, 11 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
6. Irek Gimaev: 6 gp: 6 min, 9 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
7. Mikhail Varnakov: 6 gp: 5 min, 49 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
8. Sergey Shepelev: 5 gp: 1 min, 31 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
9. Vladimir Kovin: 6 gp: 1 min, 23 sec: 0 goals forward,1 goal against
10. Igor Larionov: 5 gp: 0 min, 58 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
10. Mikhail Vasiliev: 4 gp: 0 min, 57 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against

Note: During this tournament Gimaev played both the defence and forward position on the penalty kill. I still included him here and this is his combined stats from both positions.

Canada Cup 1987
1. Vladimir Krutov: 8 gp: 19 min, 17 sec: 4 goals forward, 4 goals against
2. Vyacheslav Bykov: 8 gp: 18 min, 48 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
3. Sergey Makarov: 8 gp: 17 min, 29 sec: 4 goals forward, 3 goals against
3. Andrey Khomutov: 8 gp: 17 min, 26 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
5. Anatoly Semenov: 8 gp: 12 min, 3 sec: 1 goal forward, 1 goal against
6. Sergey Svetlov: 4 gp: 6 min, 24 sec: 1 goal forward, 1 goal against
7. Andrey Lomakin: 8 gp: 5 min, 26 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
8. Igor Larionov: 8 gp: 1 min, 37 sec: 0 goals forward, 1 goal against
9. Yury Khmylev: 8 gp: 1 min, 16 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
10. Alexander Semak: 6 gp: 1 min, 6 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
11. Valery Kamensky: 8 gp: 0 min, 44 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
12. Sergey Nemshinov: 4 gp: 0 min, 35 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against
13. Sergey Priakin: 8 gp: 0 min, 22 sec: 0 goals forward, 0 goals against

So to sum it up I would say that while Bossys Canada Cup career is very impressive Makarovs Canada Cup career was very clearly even more impressive when his penalty killing excellence and superior knockout stage scoring is taken into account.

 

[BM67]

well you're wrong about Kelly hrudey.

But yes that's obviously correct about Sawchuk.

Further to Sawchuk, some numbers are available from The Hockey Summary Project and newspaper research.

1952 PO GP 8 MIN 480 W 8 L 0 SO 4 GA 5 GAA 0.63 SOG 224 SV% .978
52-53 GP 63 MIN 3780 W 32 L 15 T 16 SO 9 GA 120 GAA 1.90 SOG 1679 SV% .929 (league avg .916)
53 PO GP 6 MIN 372 W 2 L 4 SO 1 GA 21 GAA 3.39 SOG 160 SV% .869 (league avg .912)
53-54 GP 67 MIN 4004 W 35 L 19 T 13 SO 12 GA 129 GAA 1.93 SOG 1927 SV% .933 (league avg .919)
54 PO GP 12 MIN 751 W 8 L 4 SO 2 GA 20 GAA 1.60 SOG 334 SV% .940 (league avg .927)
54-55 GP 68 MIN 4040 W 40 L 17 T 11 SO 12 GA 132 GAA 1.96 SOG 1786 SV% .926 (league avg .915)
55 PO GP 11 MIN 660 W 8 L 3 SO 1 GA 26 GAA 2.36 SOG 310 SV% .916 (league avg .904)

The new NHL data changes the GA totals by removing ENG, but most goalies don't seem to have the EN time removed from their records.

Compare my 1953-54 goalie records vs the NHL.com - Stats

Player	Team	GP	Min	W	L	T	GA	GAA	Shots	Saves	SV%	ShO	SOG/60
Johnny Bower	NYR	70	4200	29	31	10	182	2.60	2342	2160	0.922	5	33.46
Dave Gatherum	DET	3	180	2	0	1	3	1.00	88	85	0.966	1	29.33
Jack Gelineau	CHI	2	120	0	2	0	18	9.00	65	47	0.723	0	32.50
Jim Henry	BOS	70	4200	32	28	10	181	2.59	2078	1897	0.913	8	29.69
Harry Lumley	TOR	69	4140	32	24	13	128	1.86	1667	1539	0.923	13	24.16
Jean Marois	CHI	2	120	0	2	0	11	5.50	72	61	0.847	0	36.00
Gilles Mayer	TOR	1	60	0	0	1	3	3.00	23	20	0.870	0	23.00
Gerry McNeil	MTL	53	3180	28	19	6	114	2.15	1457	1343	0.922	6	27.49
Jacques Plante	MTL	17	1020	7	5	5	27	1.59	445	418	0.939	5	26.18
Al Rollins	CHI	66	3960	12	47	7	213	3.23	2241	2028	0.905	5	33.95
Terry Sawchuk	DET	67	4004	35	19	13	129	1.93	1927	1798	0.933	12	28.88
Lefty Wilson	DET	1	16	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	4	1.000	0	15.00
		421	25200	177	177	66	1009	2.40	12409	11400	0.919	55	29.55

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Rollins is the only goalie to have time removed for EN, even though several goalies have ENG removed from their GA. Sawchuk has 1 GA less in 52-53, but his MIN remain the same for all 3 seasons.

 

[DannyGallivan]

One caveat off the bat, is that I don’t see the Soviet League stats translating very well to the NHL context. The Red Army was usually stacked.

Exactly. This will always make it difficult to accurately rank these players. As it is, I have Makarov as the top Soviet and he will be among my top five this round. But really, those stats have little bearing with me.

 

[DannyGallivan]

In the case of at least two of his three Harts, he was not the best player in the League.

Clarke was never the best player in the league. However, he was definitely most valuable to his team. Personally, I've always thought that the Hart should be for Most Outstanding which to me means more, and is easier to define, than Most Valuable. But whatever...

However, that doesn't mean that I diminish what Clarke accomplished. To walk away with the Hart while Orr, Esposito and Lafleur look on is amazing.

 

[ted2019]

Clarke's defensive advantage over Yzerman is smaller than Yzerman's offensive advantage over Clarke. Their leadership is about even (Yzeman slightly ahead), and their classiness is incomparable.

In the 1974-75 season Clarke was on the ice for only 19 even strength goals against in 80 games, while playing against the other teams top line. The following season, Clarke was on ice for 22 even strength goals in 76 games.

Yzerman's best season was in a year in which he played in only 47 games in the 1994-95 campaign when he was on ice for 27 even strength goals. Heavy advantage goes to Clarke.

 

[wetcoast]

In the 1974-75 season Clarke was on the ice for only 19 even strength goals against in 80 games, while playing against the other teams top line. The following season, Clarke was on ice for 22 even strength goals in 76 games.

Yzerman's best season was in a year in which he played in only 47 games in the 1994-95 campaign when he was on ice for 27 even strength goals. Heavy advantage goes to Clarke.

This is always brought out in defense of Clarke's defense but how do the other Flyers stack up in those 2 seasons as Parent had an impact as well right?

If it was mostly Clarke, would he also have a career trend in that regard or is the 2 season spike more Parent influenced is what I'm asking.

 

[VanIslander]

The Red Army was stacked?

So,... Fetisov and Makarov are to be discounted? Are they passengers on these teams? Tretiak? .. The three I name are CLEARLY THE STACK!!

Wait, is the claim that the 7th/8th best Red Army player was sòoo much better than the 8th/9th best player on NHL teams?

Soviets are ****ed at both ends: they are so top heavy that success in Soviet leagues are meaningless, yet they are so deep that they continually had winning records on NHL tours because NHL line-ups simply had less talent in their line up, after the first couple of lines.

 

[DannyGallivan]

This is always brought out in defense of Clarke's defense but how do the other Flyers stack up in those 2 seasons as Parent had an impact as well right?

If it was mostly Clarke, would he also have a career trend in that regard or is the 2 season spike more Parent influenced is what I'm asking.

As a peak appreciation guy, I consider those two years perhaps the best two years of goaltending in NHL history (or at least, among the very top).

 

[seventieslord]

This is always brought out in defense of Clarke's defense but how do the other Flyers stack up in those 2 seasons as Parent had an impact as well right?

If it was mostly Clarke, would he also have a career trend in that regard or is the 2 season spike more Parent influenced is what I'm asking.

If no one else has answered this by the time I get home today, I will. But I'll tell you right now, it looks really good for Clarke.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Another matter I'll have to clear up- owing to the advantage that I had eyes on-the-scene at the time...

1973-74: which season would you rather have for your team? The Clarke season- or the Parent season?? It's Parent- and (to me) it's not particularly close. That year, Bernie had one of Hockey's All-Time-Great goaltender seasons. Look it up. Transcendent in the Regular Season; transcendent in the Playoffs. Had more to do with their success that year than anybody. 1974-75 is a closer call, mostly because Clarke is better than he was the year before- but Parent was awesome once again-- 2nd in Save Percentage (behind HoFer Vachon's statistically-best year)... but keep in mind that his was a team that was well below league average in Power Play Opportunities for, and broke the counter for Power Play Opportunities against. Knocked down (another) Smythe in the Postseason.

I really weary of this "heart-and-soul-of-team/best-player-on-back-to-back-Cup-winner" trope (or tripe) [or, since it's Philly, maybe I should say "sCRAPple"] that's attached to the guy. When Parent's Supernova burnt out, the Flyers stopped winning Cups.

Not intended as a critique, because I have confidence that present company understands this... but Clarke's Harts were awarded to him on the literal "most-valuable-to-his-team" model. [And, as has been illustrated above, even that's subject to considerable question.]

In the case of at least two of his three Harts, he was not the best player in the League.

I don't disagree with anything you said really except the Hart Trophy doesn't go to the best player. It goes to the most valuable. It's why McDavid didn't win last year and for good reason.

But, Bernie Parent had 2 worthwhile seasons in the NHL. The years you mentioned. Yes, they were all time great seasons but I'm quite skeptical of players who have such an incredibly short peak. His relevance as an all time player is non existent beyond two years.

He makes Ken Dryden look like Glenn Hall in terms of longevity.

 

[MXD]

First of all, great work. Between your posts, and BM67's post that IMO more or less proved that Brodeur at least was a factor in his team taking fewer penalties (something I don't think your posts really account for, but that's a really tough thing to account for), Brodeur is definitely joining Hall and the two Soviets in my top 5; likely to be joined by either Sakic, Clarke, or Esposito.

Regarding Johnny Bower, there absolutely was something funny going on there - Toronto was officially crediting more shots against than other teams, which is absurd when you think about how played there and their style of play. Note this would probably affect a few years of Sawchuk too...

Wasn't Bower clearly better than Sawchuk when both were teammates? By "clearly better", I'm not saying he was miles better.

I know that Bower had a late prime and that Sawchuk had an early prime, but still...

And besides, Sawchuk's problem is that he never had much success when not playing for a team that was leap and bounds better than the other teams (and we have good reasons to believe he wasn't the reason why that team was good in the first place)

 

[Canadiens1958]

Manipulated Save Percentage - and how it applies to Sawchuk, Hall and especially Brodeur - Part II

Let me start by posting the table from the end of part 1:

Ken Dryden	0.9338
Dominik Hasek	0.9319
Tony Esposito	0.9292
Patrick Roy	0.9291
Bernie Parent	0.9264
Martin Brodeur after adjustments	0.9231
Glenn Resch	0.9229
John Vanbiesbrouck	0.922
Jacques Plante	0.9209
Johnny Bower	0.92
Ed Belfour	0.9199
Roberto Luongo	0.9196
Dan Bouchard	0.9194
Real life Martin Brodeur	0.9191
Glenn Hall	0.9188
Tom Barrasso	0.9186
Curtis Joseph	0.9184
Tomas Vokoun	0.9178
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9175
Rogie Vachon	0.9168
Sean Burke	0.9167
Kelly Hrudey	0.9167
Andy Moog	0.9166
Terry Sawchuk	0.9033

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This table contains the top-23 all-time in peak adjusted save percentage, plus Terry Sawchuk, and a fairly adjusted Martin Brodeur. But I'm just getting started!

Take a look at numbers 1, 3, 5, and 7 on this list - all 1970s goalies. Watered down talent pool thanks to the WHA and fast expansion. Sure, they were great goalies, but comparing them to the league average save percentage really overstates their greatness.

Then, take a look at 9, 10, 15, and... I don't know, 155? Plante, Bower, Hall and Sawchuk were the best statistical goalies of their time but none of them can top the adjusted results of the 1970s goalies. They had to compete against a league average that was usually a HHOF goalie like Worsley, Sawchuk, or Lumley - that's not fair or right. Now I know HO had a system and it's completely sound mathematically and I respect things like that, but anyone who has known me long enough knows I am a fan of fudging and manipulating numbers subjectively to help them "look" right, and this is a case where that is necessary.

First of all, poor Terry Sawchuk. He's taking a kicking in this discussion, and maybe rightfully so, but his peak was hella dominant, and the save percentage era doesn't cover any of that. His first five seasons are probably his best five, and none of them are counted here because they predate regular season save percentage - also, one Jacques Plante season is missing. If I could just find a way to simulate save percentage for five seasons, then the entire careers of two top-6 goalies of all-time would be covered....

...so I did that. This is by no means an exact science, but there is enough information to use to make educated guesses. The NHL of 1950-55 was very similar to the NHL of 1956-60. We had a situation where one team was the best, and they also had the consensus best goalie. We can be certain that he had a very dominant save percentage, but also certain that his dominant team was surrendering fewer shots than the league average. And the total number of league goals was quite consistent from 1950 right through 1957, so you can expect that the total shots taken would have been as well. As it turned out, while I was manipulating the figures, I had to walk a fine line between making the league's SOG/60 averages abnormally low, and pumping up the league's average sv% to abnormally high figures. I ended up with league average save percentages of 91.01, 91.38, 91.84, 91.76, and 91.44.

I then assigned Sawchuk a workload in each season similar to what Jacques Plante, starter on the most dominant team from 1956-1960 had, and from there gave him save percentages of .9266, .9293, .9300, .9295, and .9298. I believe this is consistent with a goalie who would win the 1st or 2nd all-star team spot in each of these seasons. This was also quite conservative, because out of all pre-expansion 50-game seasons, these were just the 11th, 14th, 17th, 25th and 26th best seasons posted by any goalie. Then again, Plante had 5 in that range, Hall had 7, Bower had 4 and Worsley had 3 (and Giacomin and Hodge one apiece), so that seems fair. Still, I'm revisiting this, because intuitively, Sawchuk was thought to have the best peak of the era... doesn't mean he needs to put up all of the best five seasons ever, but his best placing higher than 11th would be a start.

(ten minutes later)... took a look at those seasons and noticed that scoring was 10% higher in 56-60 than it was in 51-55, so since I have no idea if it was because goalies were stopping more shots, or there were fewer shots, I manipulated shot totals to the point where they were 50% responsible, and save percentages accounted for the rest.

As you can imagine, this did wonders for Sawchuk's adjusted save percentage. I'd show you, but that was an intermediate step and I didn't save that step like I did for Brodeur.

The next major manipulation I did, was to subjectively change the "league average" save percentages every season to better reflect the competition level among goalies. I didn't go by any special formula, I simply went case-by-case.

In 1951-1955, I bumped the average down similar to how I did in 1956-1967 (see below)
In 1956-1967, I bumped the league average down to be approximately in-between the lowest starting goalie and the 2nd-lowest. This is done so that adjusted SP now shows how a goalie compared to the 5th-6th best goalie, instead of the 3rd-4th (which makes a world of difference)
In 1968-1972, I did nothing. There were 12 teams and a platoon system, so plenty of decent goalies with only one major league to play in. The league was not watered down. (Competition level by division is an issue, but adjusting for that would likely be a nightmare)
In 1973-1979, I bumped the league average up to be approximately 1/3 of the way up the list instead of right in the middle. The league expanded too quickly, and the best WHA goalies could have played in the NHL, keeping the really bad ones (who hurt the league average) out of games. Goalies compared to this horrible league average look too good.
In 1980-2018, I did nothing. There have been 21-31 teams, the NHL was again the only top pro league, and if you want to say it was watered down in the first half of the 80's, I wouldn't disagree, but it was nothing compared to the mid-late 70s. In 1985, in theory the worst goalie in the league was the 42nd best in north america. In 1977, the 60th best north american goalie could get playing time in the NHL.

This had the effect of making Plante, Hall, Sawchuk and Bower look better - and it should. They were not that dominant compared to the league average, only because the league average was an impossibly high standard. It also had the effect of making Dryden, Espo, Resch, Parent and Vachon look worse - and again, it should. They tore apart a severely weakened NHL with a league average baseline influenced by some truly terrible goalies.

(in the meantime I managed to make it so that Sawchuk had the 5th, 9th, 20th, and 25th best seasons posted by any goalie before the lockout, better appreciating his early peak while still being conservative).

After all that, here is what I got:

Dominik Hasek	0.9319
Jacques Plante	0.9303
Johnny Bower	0.9294
Patrick Roy	0.9291
Ken Dryden	0.9284
Glenn Hall	0.9283
Tony Esposito	0.9262
Terry Sawchuk after Adjustments	0.9257
Bernie Parent	0.9234
Martin Brodeur after adjustments	0.9231
John Vanbiesbrouck	0.922
Glenn Resch	0.9203
Ed Belfour	0.9199
Roberto Luongo	0.9196
Dan Bouchard	0.9194
Real life Martin Brodeur	0.9191
Tom Barrasso	0.9186
Curtis Joseph	0.9184
Tomas Vokoun	0.9178
Henrik Lundqvist	0.9175
Sean Burke	0.9167
Kelly Hrudey	0.9167
Andy Moog	0.9166
Rogie Vachon	0.9128
Real life Terry Sawchuk	0.9033

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Note that the modern goalies show up at 1, 4, 10, 11. The pre-expansion guys are at 2, 3, 6, and 8. The 70s guys are 5, 7, 9, 12. I think that after these adustments that reflect how difficult their benchmarks were to hit, the fact that they are sprinked among the top-12 with a fairly even distribution tells us that this manipulated adjusted save percentage does treat all goalies equally, by not treating their eras as equal.

This is completely subjective. But you must agree that when Gump Worsley and Terry Sawchuk are league average goalies, that's not the same as when Wayne Stephenson and Doug Favell are league average.

Except in the case of Johnny Bower (for whom something funny might have been going on), I think the above list does a fair job of ranking these goalies by their peaks. Considering longevity and consistency, I have no problem with putting Brodeur ahead of Parent, Sawchuk and Dryden (and of course, Bower), but for where they all look as peak performers, I like it.

Excellent and interesting work.

Regardless, SV% seems to be more indicative of changes in the NHL then descriptive or defining of the talent of goalies.

Also, the bolded Jacques Plante numbers have to be examined. 1960 his SV% is barely his second best despite, allowing the most goals of any 1956 to 1960 season and starting to wear a mask.

Jacques Plante Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Initial reaction seems that the 1959-60 NHL seasons may have seen new game stat procedures and definitions introduced.

Specifics(season(s)) to the alleged Johnny Bower situation in Toronto appreciated.

Thank you.

 

[MXD]

The Red Army was stacked?

So,... Fetisov and Makarov are to be discounted? Are they passengers on these teams? Tretiak? .. The three I name are CLEARLY THE STACK!!

Wait, is the claim that the 7th/8th best Red Army player was sòoo much better than the 8th/9th best player on NHL teams?

Soviets are ****ed at both ends: they are so top heavy that success in Soviet leagues are meaningless, yet they are so deep that they continually had winning records on NHL tours because NHL line-ups simply had less talent in their line up, after the first couple of lines.

The 7th or 8th best Red Army player was indeed, in all likelihood, much better than the 8th or 9th best player on AVERAGE NHL team. The same way the 7th or 8th best player on the New York Islanders was much better than the 8th or 9th best player on, I don't know, the Winnipeg Jets.

I don't see how that's controversial.

 

[VanIslander]

The 7th or 8th best Red Army player was indeed, in all likelihood, much better than the 8th or 9th best player on AVERAGE NHL team. The same way the 7th or 8th best player on the New York Islanders was much better than the 8th or 9th best player on the Winnipeg Jets.

So, continue the reasoning... see the inconsistency?

 

[Canadiens1958]

The Red Army was stacked?

So,... Fetisov and Makarov are to be discounted? Are they passengers on these teams? Tretiak? .. The three I name are CLEARLY THE STACK!!

Wait, is the claim that the 7th/8th best Red Army player was sòoo much better than the 8th/9th best player on NHL teams?

Soviets are ****ed at both ends: they are so top heavy that success in Soviet leagues are meaningless, yet they are so deep that they continually had winning records on NHL tours because NHL line-ups simply had less talent in their line up, after the first couple of lines.

National team vs club teams.

 

[MXD]

So, continue the reasoning... see the inconsistency?

- One of the reasons why the Red Army national successes are a bit discounted is that the 5th best player on the AVERAGE teams was, in all likelihood, no better than the 14th best player on the Red Army team. As a comparison, 5th best player on the Blackhaws in 58-59 was... Probably... Pierre Pilote. The 14th best player on the Canadiens 58-59 team was, I dont know... His future teammate, Ab McDonald? And that's arguably, or actually, the best team of all time that was famed for its ridiculous depth.

- The Red Army 2nd best player will make it to this list roughly around where the 2nd best player on the Islanders will end up.

- Mike Bossy and Bryan Trottier are both significantly better than whoever was the 3rd best player of the Red Army (the Green Unit team, I mean). You're free to the make the opposite case, but I can think of many more productive things to do.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Wasn't Bower clearly better than Sawchuk when both were teammates? By "clearly better", I'm not saying he was miles better.

I know that Bower had a late prime and that Sawchuk had an early prime, but still...

And besides, Sawchuk's problem is that he never had much success when not playing for a team that was leap and bounds better than the other teams (and we have good reasons to believe the wasn't the reason why that team was good in the first place)

Bower was the ideal, most appropriate goalie for the Maple Leafs.

Fit perfectly with the defencemen and overall system.

 

[VanIslander]

National team vs club teams.

Canadiens1958... you say that with a straight face?

• In 1976 the Soviet Wings ( not Red Army) beat 3 of 4 NHL teams faced.
• In 1978 the Soviet Spartak club (not Red Army) beat 3 of 5 NHL clubs faced.
• In 1979 the Soviet Wings (remember: no Red Army) beat NHL teams with 2 wins (each by three goals), 1 tie and a single loss 6-5.
• In 1980 Dynamo ( no Red Army) won against NHL teams with a 2-1-1 record and clear goal advantage on top of it.
• In 1986 Dynamo (no Red Army players again) beat NHL teams 2-1-1 with wins by 2 and 3 goals but the sole loss in OT.

NO CHERRY PICKING ABOVE. EVERY SINGLE SOVIET CLUB TOUR WAS VICTORIOUS - i have not mentioned any of the several Red Army and national team tour victories to try and strike home to those who weren't there nor who looked into it, to realize the Red Army team was NOT the only great Soviet team. Gawd if only this board would only stop ever embarrassing itself with this claim.

 

[DannyGallivan]

Canadiens1958... you say that with a straight face?

In 1976 the Soviet Wings ( not Red Army) beat 3 of 4 NHL teams faced.

In 1978 the Soviet Spartak club (not Red Army) beat 3 of 5 NHL clubs faced.

In 1979 the Soviet Wings (remember: no Red Army) beat NHL teams with 2 wins (each by three goals), 1 tie and a single loss 6-5.

In 1980 Dynamo ( no Red Army) won against NHL teams with a 2-1-1 record and clear goal advantage on top of it.

In 1986 Dynamo (no Red Army players again) beat NHL teams 2-1-1 with wibs by 2 and 3 goals but the sole liss in OT.

NO CHERRY PICKING ABOVE. EVERY SINGLE SOVIET CLUB TOUR WAS VICTORIOUS - i have not mentioned any of the several Red Army and national team tour victories to try and strike home to those who weren't there nor who looked into it, to realize the Red Army team was NOT the only great Soviet team. Gawd if only this board would only stop ever embarrassing itself with this claim.

Weren't visiting Soviet club teams "reinforced" by a few stars in place of its lesser players? I believe Red Army also included the best of Dynamo when they faced off against Canada.