Wasn't Bower clearly better than Sawchuk when both were teammates? By "clearly better", I'm not saying he was miles better.
I know that Bower had a late prime and that Sawchuk had an early prime, but still...
And besides, Sawchuk's problem is that he never had much success when not playing for a team that was leap and bounds better than the other teams (and we have good reasons to believe he wasn't the reason why that team was good in the first place)
Yes, I meant to mention this when rolling out the study last night. Those peak numbers shouldn't make anyone automatically go "well ok, I guess that settles it, Sawchuk actually was just as strong at his peak as Hall and Brodeur!" There are a few problems with that:
- Sawchuk's next-best 7 seasons score a .9100, Brodeur is a .9139, and Hall is a .9147. Those aren't insignificant differences.
(in case anyone is wondering, Roy is .9164, Hasek .9157, and Plante .9183, demonstrating that the three goaltenders we've already inducted were truly special - it's hard to argue Brodeur and Hall make up any ground in the longevity department)
- Sawchuk thrived in a specific five-year period, with one specific team, and although I wouldn't characterize his personal dropoff as stark, he had just five seasons (of 34-58 games) where his performance in any way resembled his peak
Excellent and interesting work.
Regardless, SV% seems to be more indicative of changes in the NHL then descriptive or defining of the talent of goalies.
Also, the bolded Jacques Plante numbers have to be examined. 1960 his SV% is barely his second best despite, allowing the most goals of any 1956 to 1960 season and starting to wear a mask.
Jacques Plante Stats | Hockey-Reference.com
Initial reaction seems that the 1959-60 NHL seasons may have seen new game stat procedures and definitions introduced.
Specifics(season(s)) to the alleged Johnny Bower situation in Toronto appreciated.
Thank you.
- of course the changes in save percentage over the years are indicative of changes in the NHL. That's the whole point of adjusted save percentage. Regardless of the environment, the better goalies still tend to post better numbers than the average ones; we've seen this decade after decade.
- I'm not sure what you mean when you say Jacques Plante's 1960 sv% is his second best. It's actually his 11th highest save percentage, and his lowest of the 1956-1960 period. He allowed the most goals in 1960 because his workload went up a full 3 shots per game more than he was used to in the prior four seasons, and he was stopping about 1% fewer of those shots.
- It's possible there was a change in game stat procedures in 1959-60. League shots per game did skyrocket, relatively speaking, from 30.18 to 31.61. However, it may be just statistical noise, too. This kind of change is not unprecedented. A change of 1.43 per game or greater from the previous season was also observed in 1955-56, 1963-64, 1968-69 and 1997-98.
- As far as Bower is concerned, you know, now that I take a closer look, I can't make a compelling case that the leafs were overcounting shots. I guess one would expect the 60s Leafs to surrender fewer shots than average, but my impression looking at Bower's totals some years, was that they surrendered
more. Aside from 1967, that doesn't really appear to be the case:
League average shots, leafs shots against, difference
1960 | 31.61 | 33.14 | 1.53 |
1961 | 32.19 | 32.24 | 0.05 |
1962 | 31.63 | 30.95 | (0.68) |
1963 | 31.79 | 29.50 | (2.29) |
1964 | 32.80 | 31.06 | (1.74) |
1965 | 31.12 | 31.40 | 0.28 |
1966 | 31.50 | 32.24 | 0.74 |
1967 | 31.79 | 35.28 | 3.48 |
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Bower's most impressive seasons by adjusted sv% are 65-66, when the Leafs surrendered just 0.74 more than the league average, 1964, when they allowed 1.74 fewer than average, and 1967, which looks like a massive smoking gun at 3.48, but the 1967 Leafs weren't what they once were. It's quite possible they were an old, slow, tired team with a lot of mileage that allowed a lot of shots and counted on a stellar tandem to bail them out.
1961 is Bower's next best season and they allowed exactly league average. 1968 is his next best, and this time they were 3.9 shots above average, which is the fifth straight season their team shots against relative to league average increased. It seems this was less a case of overcounting, and more a case of the Leafs just becoming more and more porous defensively.
I would not look at this data as evidence of overcounting. Rather, I'd say it is evidence that Bower was underrated. However, his most dominant seasons, statistically, saw him top out at 59 games, so it's not surprising or inappropriate he was passed over for all-star teams repeatedly in favour of goalies who handled more full workloads.
the only way to prove overcounting would be to check the Leafs' home games against their away games. I'm not saying for sure it didn't happen, but I am saying these numbers don't prove it.