Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 5

[DannyGallivan]

Not sure about him over Roy (personal preference) but you could do a lot worse than Marty B backstopping your team for 2 decades. As you said. Ho-hum guy. Showed up with his lunch pail, worked a lot more than others, and was better than most everyone, for a long, long time.

The older I got and the more I understood the nuances of the game the more I appreciated how big an impact Broduer had on those trap style teams. Without him, it wouldn't have worked. And even after the league went away from the clutch and grab and ultra low scoring affairs, MB still showed very well as a player which debunks the notion he was just a by-product of the defensive minded NJ team and league in general. Brodeur, IMO, was the NJ Devils in the 90's and early-mid 2000's.

I also believe that he wore among the smallest pads in the league.

 

[The Macho King]

So after I started this, I realized pretty quickly that SA/G isn't a great indicator, because in a lot of cases I'm guessing his backups played partial games (maybe he got pulled), and due to his workload that created a lot of noise. So I'm shifting over to SA/60 - hopefully that quiets the noise somewhat.

Season	Martin Brodeur's SA/60	Backup(s) SA/60
'94	28.29	29.05
'95	24.94	25.26
'96	26.44	23.4
'97	25.52	27.13
'98	22.8	23.01
'99	24.46	24.3
'00	25.00	27.64
'01	24.60	22.5
'02	22.84	23.16
'03	23.55	21.79
'04	24.30	21.46
'06	28.93	28.2
'07	27.87	28.33
'08	27.04	27.99
'09	28.17	29.27
'10	26.73	26.60

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would finish the last couple of seasons, but my flight is getting ready to board and I think this paints the picture. There are issues with the methodology, but I was curious. One thing I was shocked by - Marty didn't significantly suppress shot volume versus his backups. Lots of possible explanations for that, but I won't lie I expected to see a measurable impact. Some of those seasons (04 comes to mind) Marty played an insane amount of games versus his backups, but still.

If I have time I'll look and see if he had a measurable impact on goals scored by pushing the puck up, but I have to say I expected more in shot suppression.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Still his production numbers didn't really falter for several years and even if they did we exactly what kind of consideration are you suggesting?

As far as I know we are evaluating player by what they did or are you using other considerations?

Rate of decline. See Lafleur and his two near fatal single car accidents.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Here's the simplest tutorial I am aware of:

I hope you're into vector algebra.

Actually, I used to be.Forgot most of it though, use it or lose it kind of thing.

 

[Canadiens1958]

George Boucher seemed to have done well on slushy ice (or ice in poor condition) due to his stickhandling prowess.The sample size is very small however.

As for your first point, I completely distance myself from any attempt to dismiss or diminish the early eras of hockey history.

Skating technique. Go back to your excellent review about Morenz skating in the short clip recently.

 

[VanIslander]

Skating technique. Go back to your excellent review about Morenz skating in the short clip recently.

Let's wait until most people pre-project ranked Cyclone Taylor.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I've read that Nighbor was excellent at skating backward, so that speed wasn't an effective weapon against him.I can't find the quote right now but I have it somewhere.

Skating on slushy ice, mobility and the likes is a different story of course.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

So after I started this, I realized pretty quickly that SA/G isn't a great indicator, because in a lot of cases I'm guessing his backups played partial games (maybe he got pulled), and due to his workload that created a lot of noise. So I'm shifting over to SA/60 - hopefully that quiets the noise somewhat.

Season	Martin Brodeur's SA/60	Backup(s) SA/60
'94	28.29	29.05
'95	24.94	25.26
'96	26.44	23.4
'97	25.52	27.13
'98	22.8	23.01
'99	24.46	24.3
'00	25.00	27.64
'01	24.60	22.5
'02	22.84	23.16
'03	23.55	21.79
'04	24.30	21.46
'06	28.93	28.2
'07	27.87	28.33
'08	27.04	27.99
'09	28.17	29.27
'10	26.73	26.60

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would finish the last couple of seasons, but my flight is getting ready to board and I think this paints the picture. There are issues with the methodology, but I was curious. One thing I was shocked by - Marty didn't significantly suppress shot volume versus his backups. Lots of possible explanations for that, but I won't lie I expected to see a measurable impact. Some of those seasons (04 comes to mind) Marty played an insane amount of games versus his backups, but still.

If I have time I'll look and see if he had a measurable impact on goals scored by pushing the puck up, but I have to say I expected more in shot suppression.

Yes, the standard line from stats people was that Marty's puckhandling surpressed an average of 1 shot per game. However, in the HOH Top Goaltenders project, I posted why I think that underrates his puckhandling:

"I understand the math behind the "Brodeur's puckhandling stopped about 1 shot per game more than an average goalie" - you compare the number of shots he faces vs his backups. But that just seems too low to me. Are you adjusting for the quality of competition?

Just looking at Brodeur's 4 Vezina years - he only failed to appear in 25 games between all 4 seasons.

These are the teams where his backup played the whole season, their overall spot in the standings, and offense based on goals. (Where does one find team SOG rankings?)

2003: Lightning (12, 13), Predators (23, 28), Leafs (9, 8), Leafs (9, 8), Ducks (11, 22), Sabres (26, 25), Flames (22, 27), Penguins (29, 26) Sabres (26, 25)
2004: Leafs (5, 4) , Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Thrashers (21, 13)
2007: Predators (4, 4), Bruins (23, 23), Capitals (27 , 19), Islanders (17, 12)
2008: Panthers (22, 20), Islanders (27, 29), Penguins (4, 7), Capitals (15, 9), Bruins (13, 25)

• The average team his backups faced was 20th in the standings
• The average team his backups faced was 18th in offense
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average in the standings
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average offensively

In my opinion, your estimate underestimates the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling advantage over other goalies in two ways:

1. It doesn't take into account the fact that his backups faced teams that were below average both overall and offensively
2. It doesn't take into account the puck possession and shots for created by his puckhandling. Brodeur was a vital part of "The Trap." The trapping skaters would prevent the opposition from skating the puck into the zone, leaving a dump-in the only option. When Brodeur killed the opposing dump in, he not only killed the ability of the opposition to control the puck in his own zone, he created an opportunity for his team to control the puck in the opposition zone. The Devils of the era did not have a lot of skilled goal scorers, relying instead of volume shooting to score goals. To put it statistically, a goalie who is excellent at puckhandling should improve the Corsi ratings of all the skaters on his team, especially without the trapezoid."

That project was done in 2012. Since then, we had a couple seasons of an aging Brodeur splitting time with Cory Schneider back when Schneider was good (sigh). And frankly, the difference in team territorial play was night and day.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Yes, the standard line from stats people was that Marty's puckhandling surpressed an average of 1 shot per game. However, in the HOH Top Goaltenders project, I posted why I think that underrates his puckhandling:

"I understand the math behind the "Brodeur's puckhandling stopped about 1 shot per game more than an average goalie" - you compare the number of shots he faces vs his backups. But that just seems too low to me. Are you adjusting for the quality of competition?

Just looking at Brodeur's 4 Vezina years - he only failed to appear in 25 games between all 4 seasons.

These are the teams where his backup played the whole season, their overall spot in the standings, and offense based on goals. (Where does one find team SOG rankings?)

2003: Lightning (12, 13), Predators (23, 28), Leafs (9, 8), Leafs (9, 8), Ducks (11, 22), Sabres (26, 25), Flames (22, 27), Penguins (29, 26) Sabres (26, 25)
2004: Leafs (5, 4) , Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Thrashers (21, 13)
2007: Predators (4, 4), Bruins (23, 23), Capitals (27 , 19), Islanders (17, 12)
2008: Panthers (22, 20), Islanders (27, 29), Penguins (4, 7), Capitals (15, 9), Bruins (13, 25)

• The average team his backups faced was 20th in the standings
• The average team his backups faced was 18th in offense
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average in the standings
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average offensively

In my opinion, your estimate underestimates the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling advantage over other goalies in two ways:

1. It doesn't take into account the fact that his backups faced teams that were below average both overall and offensively
   
2. It doesn't take into account the puck possession and shots for created by his puckhandling. Brodeur was a vital part of "The Trap." The trapping skaters would prevent the opposition from skating the puck into the zone, leaving a dump-in the only option. When Brodeur killed the opposing dump in, he not only killed the ability of the opposition to control the puck in his own zone, he created an opportunity for his team to control the puck in the opposition zone. The Devils of the era did not have a lot of skilled goal scorers, relying instead of volume shooting to score goals. To put it statistically, a goalie who is excellent at puckhandling should improve the Corsi ratings of all the skaters on his team, especially without the trapezoid."

That project was done in 2012. Since then, we had a couple seasons of an aging Brodeur splitting time with Cory Schneider back when Schneider was good (sigh). And frankly, the difference in team territorial play was night and day.

Bolded is so important and relevant regarding that study. Puck possession doesn't happen in one zone. It generally starts in your own and Brodeur was masterful at creating possession for lesser skilled F groups (NJ compared to teams like Detroit, Colorado, Pitsburgh, even Dallas, among others)

 

[Canadiens1958]

Averaging stats are misleading. How many <20,<25,<30 SOG games did Brodeur have compared to other teams and #1 goalies?

 

[Captain Bowie]

Averaging stats are misleading. How many <20,<25,<30 SOG games did Brodeur have compared to other teams and #1 goalies?

Luongo comes out way on top by that metric. Brodeur/Hasek/Roy are all quite close to each other.

1990-2018, games faced 30+ shots: Player Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

For 25+, Brodeur is well ahead of Roy and Hasek for 2nd, again Luongo way ahead:

Player Game Finder | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[wetcoast]

Rate of decline. See Lafleur and his two near fatal single car accidents.

So what is the relevance concerning g these 2 players?

Both played well into their late 30s, it's not a Bobby Orr situation here.

 

[The Macho King]

Yes, the standard line from stats people was that Marty's puckhandling surpressed an average of 1 shot per game. However, in the HOH Top Goaltenders project, I posted why I think that underrates his puckhandling:

"I understand the math behind the "Brodeur's puckhandling stopped about 1 shot per game more than an average goalie" - you compare the number of shots he faces vs his backups. But that just seems too low to me. Are you adjusting for the quality of competition?

Just looking at Brodeur's 4 Vezina years - he only failed to appear in 25 games between all 4 seasons.

These are the teams where his backup played the whole season, their overall spot in the standings, and offense based on goals. (Where does one find team SOG rankings?)

2003: Lightning (12, 13), Predators (23, 28), Leafs (9, 8), Leafs (9, 8), Ducks (11, 22), Sabres (26, 25), Flames (22, 27), Penguins (29, 26) Sabres (26, 25)
2004: Leafs (5, 4) , Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Capitals (29, 27), Penguins (30, 22), Thrashers (21, 13)
2007: Predators (4, 4), Bruins (23, 23), Capitals (27 , 19), Islanders (17, 12)
2008: Panthers (22, 20), Islanders (27, 29), Penguins (4, 7), Capitals (15, 9), Bruins (13, 25)

• The average team his backups faced was 20th in the standings
• The average team his backups faced was 18th in offense
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average in the standings
• 16 of 25 (64%) of the teams his backups faced were below average offensively

In my opinion, your estimate underestimates the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling advantage over other goalies in two ways:

1. It doesn't take into account the fact that his backups faced teams that were below average both overall and offensively
2. It doesn't take into account the puck possession and shots for created by his puckhandling. Brodeur was a vital part of "The Trap." The trapping skaters would prevent the opposition from skating the puck into the zone, leaving a dump-in the only option. When Brodeur killed the opposing dump in, he not only killed the ability of the opposition to control the puck in his own zone, he created an opportunity for his team to control the puck in the opposition zone. The Devils of the era did not have a lot of skilled goal scorers, relying instead of volume shooting to score goals. To put it statistically, a goalie who is excellent at puckhandling should improve the Corsi ratings of all the skaters on his team, especially without the trapezoid."

That project was done in 2012. Since then, we had a couple seasons of an aging Brodeur splitting time with Cory Schneider back when Schneider was good (sigh). And frankly, the difference in team territorial play was night and day.

This makes sense to me. And going over it, some of those seasons are really susceptible to sample size noise because he would leave his backups fewer than 600 minutes.

I hope I have time to look at shots for/goals for later to see if theres more there.

To put it out there - my memory says he had a huge effect, but earlier we were discussing how to quantify that, which is why I started looking.

 

[sr edler]

Since then, we had a couple seasons of an aging Brodeur splitting time with Cory Schneider back when Schneider was good (sigh). And frankly, the difference in team territorial play was night and day.

While it’s true Schneider was once good at stopping pucks (actually 18 playoffs, pretty darn good) he was never a good puck-handler. Not even close actually, so that’s a slightly skewed point of comparison.

 

[wetcoast]

It's not a quota, but I do think we should be vigilant in making sure that there isn't a bias for/against certain eras without good reason. If we had the best player in a certain era *not* represented in the vote, we better have a good reason as to why.

Considering there are numerous spectacular top 100 worthy players during Nighbor's era, yet Nighbor was still by a good bit considered the best of the bunch, that should be something that we factor in. That doesn't mean he goes this vote, but it does mean we better come up with some damn good reasons to leave him out.

How about just comparing him against others in this round and leaving the era arguement at the door?

 

[Captain Bowie]

So what is the relevance concerning g these 2 players?

Both played well I to their late 30s, it's not a Bobby Orr situation here.

Lafleur wasn't all that effective after the age of 32.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

While it’s true Schneider was once good at stopping pucks (actually 18 playoffs, pretty darn good) he was never a good puck-handler. Not even close actually, so that’s a slightly skewed point of comparison.

Schneider was actually the perfect point of comparison to see the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling, and it was specifically because Schneider didn't do it, even while being a better puck stopper (and having a better save percentage) than aging Brodeur.

 

[The Macho King]

How about just comparing him against others in this round and leaving the era arguement at the door?

Because the era factor has come up, and when dealing with a) an era where we have few contemporary accounts, b) with vastly different rules, and c) in complete/untrustworthy/questionable statistics versus players where some people have witnessed 95% of every shift they've ever taken, the era issue is relevant.

 

[The Macho King]

Schneider was actually the perfect point of comparison to see the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling, and it was specifically because Schneider didn't do it, even while being a better puck stopper (and having a better save percentage) than aging Brodeur.

I remember the game on Sunday w/r/t Schneiders puck handling.

 

[Captain Bowie]

Schneider was actually the perfect point of comparison to see the effects of Brodeur's puckhandling, and it was specifically because Schneider didn't do it, even while being a better puck stopper (and having a better save percentage) than aging Brodeur.

Schneider was as bad as Luongo when it came to handling the puck...

 

[Canadiens1958]

So what is the relevance concerning g these 2 players?

Both played well I to their late 30s, it's not a Bobby Orr situation here.

Lafleur second accident, March 1981. Performance steadily declined afterwards.

Lafleur Is Out of Hospital After Tuesday Car Crash

 

[Nick Hansen]

Sawchuk looks pretty damn unimpressive compared to the others here. Great peak early on but then what? He's gotta have stardust flying from his hair like it's dandruff.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Averaging stats are misleading. How many <20,<25,<30 SOG games did Brodeur have compared to other teams and #1 goalies?

Why do posters list > data when the subject is clearly <?

 

[wetcoast]

Lafleur wasn't all that effective after the age of 32.

He wasn't all that effective outside of his peak, that's already been established.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

based on...?

Based on what I saw.

Comments seen in this thread include "Esposito was terrible defensively" and "Messier was a 200 foot demon". Nothing to substantiate either. So, I just thought I'd throw in my unsubstantiated opinions. But, at least I can say I saw these guys play.

Now, granted, there were probably instances where all of the above occurred. No one has really seen guys from the 70's and 80's night in and night out (I don't think?) and concentrated on their defensive play. So I'm just tossing out my recollections.